tracking prediction tracker strong picks (boredom/learning exercise)

[rivercitybirdie]

i am pretty new to betting ncaaB but not new to sports betting or NCAAB... so i am looking for a place to start.

i thought i'll start tracking big differences between predictiontracker.com NCAAB predicted lines and actual lines.

starting today. not very scientific. will be 2.5 point diff on smaller number of games days. 3.5 points on very heavy days. vs. updated line.

so today sunday on the following:

CS Bakersfield +15.5
Buffalo +22
UC Davis +5

sometimes i'll be updating this after the fact and with admittedly loose rules. but i'm looking at it as a tracker NOT a "look at how great my picks are". and i'm looking at this as a learning experience.... NCAAB has sooooo many games that i'm just trying to get comfortable with the flow.

FYI, my limited experience with this and NCAAF showed me that you should do the OPPOSITE on games that are way off. i.e. i should be reversing those 3 picks cited above......... but like i said it's limited sample and it's another sport/betting market.

feel feel to make any suggestions. i am very flexible.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

here's what i'll go with to make it objective and make legit after the fact picks..

everything 4 and over is a pick

go down to 2.5 points to get up to 5 picks a day...

basically top 5 2.5 and over are picks.... everything 4 and over is a pick..

may change these depending on pick volume but always forward looking changes

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, cal-davis was a loss.... buffalo looking great, ahead at halftime..... CS-Bakersfield hasn't started.

anyone know anything about buffalo's players? could be good angle with hurley as coach. witherspoon, an acquaintence of mine, did a good job but classic "next level" type firing/hiring (sometimes they work spectacularly, often they don't)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

wow, sagarin had buffalo at #36 ELO score (whatever that is exactly.... i know what it is very generally i.e. i know what ELO means and i know what score means)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, so 2-1 ATS the first day.... cs-bakersfield with the SU win too.

today monday... we have st joes, LSU, TCU, texas, VCU.... only 5 games where the line is off by at least 2.5 points...

 

[rivercitybirdie]

gonna add any sagarin lines off by more than 5 points.. today LSU, TCU... track seperately.

i note that all the line movements except one are in the direction of the prediction tracker i.e. in the direction basic power ratings would suggest.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

thought it was 3-2 tonight, but i think it's 2-3... TCU was an ATS loss.

sagarin picks were 1-1....

back at it tomorrow..... i'm thinking the closer spread games might be more interesting for this. 24 predicted spread vs. 21 actual spread doesn't seem like that big a deal.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

so tonight, we have....

lasalle, UNC Wilm, illinois (wrong team favored), ohio state.... could play TAM and WV but they are smaller and we already have 5 picks.....

 

[rivercitybirdie]

for sagarin picks tonight.... i see lasalle, illinois and UNC-W as picks that his system might suggest are 7 points of value...... oops, i only had 4 for the main picks, so i'll just add back TAM as a pick.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

2-3 tonight... sagarin 1-2......

i'm thinking this may turn out to be an opposite system as i think sagarin might affect the line and line moves. so if it doesn't have any good info value then maybe it moves lines in the wrong direction... just a very early, small sample size thought.

 

[DrMove]

cheersgif Keep At It cheersgif

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, i'm backfilling tonight's card so keeping close to my definitions..... i haven't looked at any scores yet.

off by about 4.5 to 5 points:

georgia
loyola chicago
illinois state
rhode island
indiana

gonna leave it at that. i have those teams as 4.5 to 5.5 point value. and it's all the teams in that category... it's exciting. i can go check the picks almost instantaneously

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, it was a "don't stop believin'" kind of night........... 4-1 and i will double check i had the picks right. only illinois state was a loss.

i think over time i will put more weight on mispriced games with tight point spreads.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

just one game today..... eastern washington.....

 

[sunshine11]

GL. Interesting

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok, i'm back with more picks...... a bit of a western new york (buffalo) and lake erie (detroit, valpo) flavour to tonight's picks. but that's just how the numbers landed.

valpo
canisius
manhattan (playing niagara)
utah
wright state

do people actually bet this stuff?

 

[snowman]

watching first to see if it holds true. THANKS for posting

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Hey, i meant do people actually bet on wright state games? for instance....,.

i'm guessing the predictiontracker bigger picks is going to turn out to be null hypothesis... as i had said on NCAAF i was inclined to go the opposite way, although i watched it more at start of the year when power ratings are probably basically based on last year's games.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

1-3 so far.. with utah to come... had my geography wrong in funny comment. confused wayne state and wright state. anyway, the pick was wright state either way.

these games that are off by alot on predictiontracker.com (basically off alot on power ratings) have a ton of huge misses. i think you want to play the reverse on them

 

[DrMove]

I Think You Had The Wrong Team In The ManHat Game. If I Reading That Correctly (Niagara) Was The Play. AnyWho....... cheersgifGood Luck!!!!! cheersgif

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