Hey Guys,
Been lurking for a little bit and trying to piece together my own system (for fun first and foremost)
Essentially I'm indexing offense performance against the defenses they've played (I'm sure I'm just another in a long list of ppl who have done this). When I backtested this over the last decade I came away with very impressive results so I'm going to track my results here, to put it in the public domain and hopefully eliminate any confirmation bias I have. My model requires at least 3 weeks of data so I'll be starting clean this week. This is a straight numbers model and will not account for variables such as weather, injuries etc. I'll account for subjective types of variables in my decision to bet a game or not but will rarely swing my choice from one team to the opponent.
I'll list picks for all games strictly according to my model at the moment. I'll adjust lines if necessary and come back to highlight the games I actually bet. (Picks on the left)
Thanks for listening. luck to all.
Been lurking for a little bit and trying to piece together my own system (for fun first and foremost)
Essentially I'm indexing offense performance against the defenses they've played (I'm sure I'm just another in a long list of ppl who have done this). When I backtested this over the last decade I came away with very impressive results so I'm going to track my results here, to put it in the public domain and hopefully eliminate any confirmation bias I have. My model requires at least 3 weeks of data so I'll be starting clean this week. This is a straight numbers model and will not account for variables such as weather, injuries etc. I'll account for subjective types of variables in my decision to bet a game or not but will rarely swing my choice from one team to the opponent.
I'll list picks for all games strictly according to my model at the moment. I'll adjust lines if necessary and come back to highlight the games I actually bet. (Picks on the left)
Thanks for listening. luck to all.
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 3 | H | Arizona Cardinals | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -4 | V | Cleveland Browns | |
| Chicago Bears | 2.5 | V | Detroit Lions | |
| Indianapolis Colts | -9.5 | V | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| St Louis Rams | 3.5 | H | San Francisco 49ers | |
| New York Jets | 3.5 | V | Tennessee Titans | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.5 | N | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| Denver Broncos | -12 | H | Philadelphia Eagles | |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | H | Baltimore Ravens | |
| New England Pats | 1 | V | Atlanta Falcons | |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | V | New Orleans Saints | |
| Oakland Raiders | 3.5 | H | Washington Redskins | |
| Dallas Cowboys | -1.5 | V | San Diego Chargers | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -4 | H | New York Giants | |
| Seattle Seahawks | -2.5 | V | Houston Texans |
