Tout Math...

[postaldoug]

A local tout, went 10-0 yesterday on CFB. I won't mention his name, or endorse him. He gives out a free pick.

I'll believe he pulled off 10-0.

He has a math problem, though. He claims the odds of going 10-0 exceed 300,000:1 I say 1023:1


I'm not shilling for the guy, I'm pointing out a gross error, factor of about 300X.

I'm pointing out how touts operate. If anybody gives odds out that badly, do you want to buy their advice ???

I understand if mods pull this.

I'm reasonably sure he pulled 10-0, but lost on bases, of course not mentioned !


The thread is fine, but no phone numbers please in fairness to others who use site promotion forum. wil.

 

[quantumleap]

If odds were coing flips, where there is an equal chance on each side of the line to win you would calculate the odds like this:

Odds to win 1 game= 1:1
Odds to win 2 games= 3:1
Odds to win X games= 2^X-1:1
Odds to win 10 games= 2^10-1:1= 1023:1

The problem is that odds are not always given so that there is an equal chance on each side. Perhaps the tout was referring to how frequently people are actually able to pull this off.

 

[John_Kerry]

The Odds could only be 300,000 to 1 odds if he had some Big ML dogs in the 10 wins.

 

[bzbwoy]

there are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics. go figure

 

[postaldoug]

I forgot the toll-free phone line ! This guy charges a ton for his picks.

No phone numbers - thank you, wil.

 

[postaldoug]

Every tout, I know of doesn't advise M/L dogs, it lowers win percentage drastically, harder to tout. However none of these guys post their records... esp. JR Miller. Nitrobets is an exception. The recording number I gave will expire by about 10AM Mon. It's a classic, listen while it's still up. I can't believe my omission in first post.