Tournament GOY (regular season GOY was easy)

[extra]

my regular season GOY in CBB was an easy winner with Rice getting points at home vs Houston, and it was NEVER in doubt. hope this one is same.


#3 team is playing 'at home' and is only -2 vs #6 (2 good to be true?)

the public perception is that ucla is bad and nova is great (wrong)
this could be the most heavily bet game today and big % is on nova (^<<^)
'ucla barely beat vcu' is the most common thing nova backers are saying.

and how about nova barely beating american, at home ???

vcu is #55 and american is #109 according to kenpom

what american did well against Nova ? Forcing turnovers, shooting for 3
ucla is #16 in the nation in forcing to's and #13 in 3 pt %

what vcu did well against UCLA ?limiting UCLA's assists on fg's made.
nova is #323 in the nation in defensive AS/FGM

ucla vs top 50 (kenpom): 11-7
nova vs top 50 (kenpom): 7-7

big east is 2-5 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, P10 is 4-2 ATS

according to kenpom, UCLA is using mostly man-to-man defense and Nova is mostly using Zone defense. here is how both teams fared recently...

Nova recent games vs mostly MAN defenses:

struggled and LOST ATS vs American (#109)
lost by 14 and LOST ATS against Louisville (#4)
struggled and LOST ATS vs Rutgers (#146)
lost by 21 and LOST ATS at WVA (#10)

That's 2-2 (0-4 ATS)
0-2 vs Top 10 teams losing by 17.5 on average (UCLA is #9)

UCLA recent games vs mostly ZONE defenses:

won by 25 and WON ATS vs Oregon State (#115)
lost by 12 and LOST ATS at Arizona (#34)
won by 23 and WON ATS vs Arizona (#34)
won by 23 and WON ATS at Oregon State (#115)
won by 31 and LOST ATS vs Loyola Marymount

That's 4-1 (3-2 ATS)


MY Tournament GOY is UCLA +2.5

 

[FearTheRaven]

gl extra

 

[GoForIt]

BOL Extra

 

[extra]

Other plays...

Michigan +7

Tease Michigan to +12 and UCLA +7.5

Chicago +4 (NBA)

Memphis +7.5 (NBA)

Tease Chicago to +9 and Memphis to +12.5 (NBA)

 

[extra]

gl extra

:toast:

 

[extra]

BOL Extra

Thanks guys, same to you

:toast:

 

[cshimer1986]

I completely agree with the UCLA play. My only advice would be to wait it out to get a better line. My book has UCLA +3.5 already. Good luck with the play!

 

[ajreeb]

I like it as well. Nice write-up, E!

 

[BigDon]

my regular season GOY in CBB was an easy winner with Rice getting points at home vs Houston, and it was NEVER in doubt. hope this one is same.


#3 team is playing 'at home' and is only -2 vs #6 (2 good to be true?)

the public perception is that ucla is bad and nova is great (wrong)
this could be the most heavily bet game today and big % is on nova (^<<^)
'ucla barely beat vcu' is the most common thing nova backers are saying.

and how about nova barely beating american, at home ???

vcu is #55 and american is #109 according to kenpom

what american did well against Nova ? Forcing turnovers, shooting for 3
ucla is #16 in the nation in forcing to's and #13 in 3 pt %

what vcu did well against UCLA ?limiting UCLA's assists on fg's made.
nova is #323 in the nation in defensive AS/FGM

ucla vs top 50 (kenpom): 11-7
nova vs top 50 (kenpom): 7-7

big east is 2-5 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, P10 is 4-2 ATS

according to kenpom, UCLA is using mostly man-to-man defense and Nova is mostly using Zone defense. here is how both teams fared recently...

Nova recent games vs mostly MAN defenses:

struggled and LOST ATS vs American (#109)
lost by 14 and LOST ATS against Louisville (#4)
struggled and LOST ATS vs Rutgers (#146)
lost by 21 and LOST ATS at WVA (#10)

That's 2-2 (0-4 ATS)
0-2 vs Top 10 teams losing by 17.5 on average (UCLA is #9)

UCLA recent games vs mostly ZONE defenses:

won by 25 and WON ATS vs Oregon State (#115)
lost by 12 and LOST ATS at Arizona (#34)
won by 23 and WON ATS vs Arizona (#34)
won by 23 and WON ATS at Oregon State (#115)
won by 31 and LOST ATS vs Loyola Marymount

That's 4-1 (3-2 ATS)


MY Tournament GOY is UCLA +2.5

love the pick.... UCLA senior leadership is huge edge in the dance...

 

[seanm0520]

Got UCLA @ +3 from my book. Let's take this one to the bank! BOL!

 

[BBBILLY]

Villanova is not loaded with underclassmen. They have plenty of experience as well. Should be a great game. Good luck! BBB

 

[BigCat]

This is a solid play. GL

 

[jdigae01]

ucla gets beat today. this is a home game for nova. every team must survive a scare game and nova had it in the first game.

i dont see people saying that pitt or kansas will be bounced next because they didnt roll in their opening games.

american had very quick guards and that was the difference for them plus they shot the lights out in the first half shooting over 60% from the arc.

end of the day this should be a good ball game.

 

[midman2161]

I have UCLA to the elite 8, so taking them plus 2.5 or 3 is even better

 

[seanm0520]

UCLA can shoot the lights out too though...I agree though, should be a great game.

 

[pumptender]

gl with the play but im on nova
they playing at home and will play much better today
i think nova wins easily ,close first half then look out in 2nd half

 

[JackStraw]

BOL on your plays


If not to much trouble I would like to here your thoughts on the Michigan game.

Do you think they can win SU?
I like Michigan today

was thinking of a Small ML parlay on UCLA/Mich pays 1/7.2

Thanks

 

[billhill999]

Love the writeup, excellent job, I'm on 'Nova, but wish you success.

 

[Janesl36]

NOVA!:howdy:

 

[Drunkn247]

I'm on Ucla too and I feel I overthought this one as Nova was the obvious play and its showing early in this game. I'm hoping its a repeat of the game vs Marq when Nova blew a huge lead and only won the game by a point