Totals lined at 50 or above in NFL have went under at 55% since 1989

Iceman · Sep 18, 2008

Almost 58% since 2002. This is over 120+ games. 2 of them this weekend.

Pretty good subset that for the NFL which isnt easy to find nowadays. Not a lot of games to draw a big conclusion on but still a decent amount.

When I went to that Vegas Insider football conference this was brought up a few times as something most play blindly, espically really early in the season.

I am personally waiting to bet the Dallas game as that is a Sunday night game and most likely will rise right before kickoff (IMO).

51 seems to be a pretty important NFL total so I just bet under right now on the denver game.

D2bets · Sep 18, 2008

Is that against the "closing number"?

bdgear · Sep 18, 2008

PerpetualCzech

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There's a couple of NFL games totalled in the 50's this week. Games with a 50+ total are 53-65-2, 55.1% going back to 1989 (57.7% since 2002 for those that believe the market has sharpened up in the last few years).

It's only 120 games so not much sample, right? I agree. The thing is though, pretty much every single market I have looked at across the board- even fringe stuff like CFL and WNBA - has always shown the same pattern: high totals go Under >50% of the time AND low totals go Over >50% of the time as well.

At this point it's not about handicapping the game anymore. All these small subsets add up together into one big subset and point to a very clear conclusion: the market in general tends to inflate big totals and "deflate" (couldn't think of a better word LOL) low totals.

I think the tendency should be stronger at the beginning of the year when there's an opportunity to overreact to a small number of games. I went ahead and played NO/Den Under 51 -107 for fear of losing the strong 51. No need to jump on GB/Dall just yet since it's an SNF game.</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

Fishhead · Sep 18, 2008

Iceman-

Well your at it, check these ATS numbers......

OLD AFC WEST DIVISION DOGS AT HOME(OAK-KC-SEA-DEN) in their HISTORY.......the numbers you will find are amazing.

Also, check out double digit dogs in the NFL.......since 1980.

ope:

Railbird · Sep 18, 2008

irrelevant info and minor leauge handicapping, please come up with something besides a cut and paste from a retard at another site.

Iceman · Sep 18, 2008

Railbird said:
irrelevant info and minor leauge handicapping, please come up with something besides a cut and paste from a retard at another site.

Relax there buddy. It was something I have known about for a few years and thought I would share cause there are 2 games this weekend that pertain to it.

It's a winning subset and will most likely win enough in the future to beat the juice. Not sure why that is minor leagues or it even bothers you in the slightest.

Not sure what would even motivate someone to be so negative about sharing any info but to each his own. Have a great day.

rouxdogg · Sep 18, 2008

Railbird said:
irrelevant info and minor leauge handicapping, please come up with something besides a cut and paste from a retard at another site.

^ you're an idiot

BadCo · Sep 18, 2008

Railbird,do you ever feel as if your living on an island?

evsports · Sep 19, 2008

Hi guys. I do research using the logs at Goldsheet.com. Over the past 10 years of regular season NFL, playing the under if the total is 47 or higher would have gotten you 160 winners vs. 119 losers, right at about 57%.
I haven't found any good results dealing with low totals. Maybe someone has some good info on that end of the spectrum.