G.....sent something like this to you last year too ...just read this an thought you might like it .
There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.
In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?
While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.
When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.
Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.
Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.
The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.
I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.
When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.
Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.
It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.
If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.
A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.
Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.
To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.
There is more interest in college totals than there ever has been in the past. Many handicappers are finding it lucrative to bet whether a game will go Over or Under the lined total. As every season goes by, more and more sportsbooks are putting up totals on EVERY lined college basketball game. The liquidity in this market is thin compared to side bets and you can have movements of several points. Also, to combat sports bettors playing college totals, many books have a smaller limit on them and post their totals numbers much later in the day.
In handicapping college hoops totals, you need to determine which team is going to control the tempo. Normally, the home team will be the team who is most able to set a style of play. However, if the visitor is significantly superior, they can be the ones who dictate the overall tempo, especially if they jump out to a lead. Take the point spread into consideration. This is basically the linesmaker’s opinion of the relative strength of each team. How has a team/coach performed when they are double-digit favorites?
While some handicappers first look at how many points a team scores and allows on a per game average, I prefer examining the pace of the two teams involved. The pace is the calculated number of possessions a team has in a game on average. It does not mean the number of shots a team takes in a game. When you lose the ball due to a turnover, consider that a possession. Missing a shot and then getting an offensive rebound is another possession. Generally speaking, it is how fast a team gets up and down the floor coupled with how fast they shoot the ball.
When betting totals, you have to be willing to play the Under OR the Over. Just like in playing favorites or dogs, you are missing out on betting opportunities if you only consider betting one way or the other. Some people don’t even realize they are showing great favoritism to betting one way or the other. A friend of mine refuses to bet Unders. He is terrified of a game going into overtime and causing him to lose his bet with the added time and points being scored. When one accepts the fact that so small of percentage of games ever go into overtime, you realize it is a stupid fear to have.
Knowing the tendencies of a coach is very important. Some coaches will let the air out of the ball when they get a lead of even a small significance. They might be more prone to do this when their team is on the road at a hostile environment in a conference game.
Besides coaches, teams can have different personalities and levels of performance, especially depending upon whether they are playing at home or on the road. A more cautious, steady method of play can work its way into a team that is on the road. This habit can increase as the season proceeds, especially if they have had a bad experience or two in games that resulted in tough, close losses. All of a sudden, players become hesitant to take shots in close or big games.
The visiting team is in an arena they don’t see very often, once a year perhaps if it is a conference game. In a non-conference game, it might be the first time ever playing in a venue. Players’ familiarity to the depth behind the basket, the lines of vision inside the arena, what the crowd is like, all can put a lid on the basket.
I don’t like to bet Overs when a team relies heavily on one player to score a lot of points in games. What if that player has an off night or has a defensive stopper put on him that is extremely effective? You then have to count on other players to perform a duty, score points, they aren’t accustomed to or comfortable in doing.
When you have a team with one or two players who score a large proportion of a team’s points, look at how efficient the scorers are, how many possessions in a game do they take? A player with a 22 points per game scoring average is fine, but if he is taking 40% of a team’s possessions to score those again you can see an Under happening, as well as a loss, if that player is not performing adequately.
Look at the range of total that a team normally plays at. If they are usually lined in the mid 130’s and then have to play a much faster team and now have a lined total in the upper 140’s or even 150’s, how will team respond? Do they have the athletes and the depth to play at a fast pace? Many times slower paced teams become even slower when facing a superior team.
It pays to know a team’s offense and its overall efficiency. Teams are harder to defend if they have an outside and inside scoring presence. They are less likely to have a scoring drought. You have to be cognizant that if teams that like to fast break frequently are playing a very good rebounding team, their opportunities to run the break could be limited. To make up for a lack of rebounding, many teams will send four or even five players to the defensive glass.
If a team relies heavily on the three-point shot, how good is their opponent at guarding beyond the arc? If a team is a poor outside shooting team, does the opposing team play a good zone defense challenging the foe to shoot from outside? Teams with below average guard play and ball handling skills can be limited offensively to good pressure teams like Tennessee.
A team’s offensive free throw rate, how many free throws are made to field goals attempted, can be a valuable number to know, especially when it is a high number such as Xavier’s or Marquette’s this year. If they are playing a team that fouls frequently, one with a high defensive free throw rate, an opponent’s free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts, this factor can be even more important. Southern Illinois and Central Michigan are both fouling a high-percentage of the time this year. That can be magnified more if the team that gets to the line a lot is playing at home versus the team that fouls frequently. Yes, there definitely can be “home cooking” when it comes to a ref blowing his whistle.
Once conference play begins, games can be much more intense. Familiarity in an opponent’s style, players, and even plays can make it more difficult for teams to score. Also, you can’t rely on a team’s points per game average that they have achieved in non-conference action as many of those games were played against smaller schools with lesser athletes. Offensive and defensive game averages can be out of whack significantly compared to a team’s conference averages. Look at previous year’s conference-only statistics to get a better idea of how teams perform in league play.
To increase your abilities to successfully handicap college basketball totals, you should watch a lot of games and read a lot of game recaps. Since there is such an extreme multitude of teams, you need to either focus on a few conferences or teams or keep very good notes and stats. I prefer to use an electronic notebook where I can continue putting notes in from year to year. If there is a coaching change, I have valuable information on how the coach performed at a previous school or the tendencies of the coach he worked for.
