total wins for the year W/analysis

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Washington over 71½ -1.26 (Pinnacle) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
If you’ve ever read my stuff then you’re fully aware that I never use the words “lock” or “cinch” but man, this is about as close to a sure thing as I’ve posted in the last seven years or so. Not only will the Nats crush this number, they actually have a chance to win the division. That’s right, they have a chance to win the division. The Nats biggest problem last season was scoring runs but they’ll score a ton more this season. In a recent spring training game, Manny Acta's first five hitters were Nick Johnson, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. The oldest two are 30. Four have had seasons with 23 or more homers; Dukes clearly could. Lastings Milledge and Jesús Flores, both good hitting prospects, didn't play. Austin Kearns, one year removed from being considered a pro's pro, can't get mentioned here. Neither can Dmitri Young, a career .292 hitter. "Last year, we never had enough pieces for a [good] lineup," Kearns said. "Now, we have extra ones." Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes could both have monster years with hitters around them. As for the pitching, well, it just might be the best in the business. Daniel Cabrera came over from Baltimore and everyone knows he has some of the nastiest stuff in the league. With the right guidance he could easily be a 15-game winner or better, especially in this park. Scott Olsen came over from Florida and he, too, is a quality starter. Then there’s Jordan Zimmerman, one of the best pitching prospects in some time. The kid can downright bring it and he’s been phenomenal in the spring. In one of his first innings, Zimmermann faced Carlos Guillén, Magglio Ordóñez and Miguel Cabrera and, on eight pitches, seven of them strikes, fanned the first two, then got a first-pitch dribbler to shortstop. John Lannan and Shairon Martis round out the rotation and both are extremely talented. In fact, Lannan is the opening day pitcher after throwing 182 frames last season and allowing just 172 hits for a BAA of .252. The pen is decent, as is their bench and with a new attitude, new staff and coaches, these Nationals are going to very competitive indeed and even if everything goes wrong they’ll still get well over 71 wins. Play: Washington Nationals over 71½ -1.26 (Risking 5.02 units to win 4).
 

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Daniel Cabrera came over from Baltimore and everyone knows he has some of the nastiest stuff in the league.
Good stuff from the neck down.fuckin kid blows up everytime i ever saw him.But he has shown decent stuff.
Maybe he'll be better out of the AL East and a change of scenery.
 

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Kind of curious if you have any opinion on the Giants (I am sure you do), 79-. Higher number than I wanted but was leaning to the over. Pretty solid pitching 1-3, (think the Unit is going to like pitching in S.F.). Thanks.
 

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Stef:
I'm not crazy about the Giants for several reasons and the main one being the offense. They didn't pick up a solid bat in the off-season and scoring runs is going to a huge problem. Also note that tight games takes its toll on pitchers and I'm suggesting the Giants aren't going to be enjoying too many big leads.

Expecting big things out of a 45-yr-old Randy Johnson is ludicrous. He's been on the decline for years and likely won't make it to the finish line. Johnson is not a crafty vet like Moyer for instance, he's a hard throwing lefty that doesn't have too many hard throwing pitches left in that worn out arm. He'll get rocked this year. Who knows how Zito will perform.

Lots of weaknesses on the Giants but the pen has been upgraded. They're also without a proven back-up catcher, which means Molina will play lots and although I like him, if he gets injured it could be a huge hole. One of the problems with playing overs is that injuries do occur and the Giants can't afford to lose anyone significant. Imagine if Cain or Lincecum is lost for six weeks or so. Jonathan Sanchez looks good and has all the potential in the world but again, it's a case of who knows...

Frankly, I don't like the Giants over, as they'll very likely be right around that number and I'm much more interested in teams that I think will crush the number.
 

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"As for the pitching, well, it just might be the best in the business."

Your one huge mistake in the writeup...

Best of luck regardless.
 

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I already took the Giants over 80.5 for +120. I like that play and I'll be following you on the Nats. Thanks for the write-up.
 

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Giants have a lot of young guys that are hungry and with a solid rotation, I think they have a shot to compete for the division. They should have brought in a proven bat, but I'm going to take a gamble and say they get over that number.
 

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sherwood

I got this at 72.5 +100

would you still play this at these odds
 

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nice post. The offense is finally starting to click. They hit 5 bombs today against Philly (2 from Zimmerman) and the depth is just ridiculous. With 5 starting outfielders they have the luxury of playing whoever is hot at the given moment.

My only concern with the Nationals is their pitching staff. I like Lannan, and Martis and Zimmermann will have solid rookie seasons. However I'm pretty concerned about Olsen and Cabrera. Olsen's velocity is down and he has been really hittable this Spring. Cabrera's velocity is also down and hasn't looked great this Spring. Neither of the two have been terrible but as #2 and #3 starters they need to improve drastically.

I believe the bullpen will be a strength. They added Beimel which helps immensely. A Rivera-Beimel-Hanrahan back-end of the bullpen is very solid. A slew of talented 25-28 year-olds should fill in the rest.

It's a long shot but I put in a bet on the Nats to win the NL East at 50-1 odds a few months ago. The NL East is wide open though so you never know.
 

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I THINK PITCHING WINS GAMES..THE BRAVES WILL BE BETTER, THE METS PEN WILL BE BETTER AND THEREFORE SO WILL THE METS, PHILLY WILL BE AS GOOD AND I PREFER FLORIDA'S STAFF TO WASHINGTIONS..I THINK THE EAST WILL BE THE BEST DIVISION IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE.....

WASHINGTON JUST TAKE THEIR RIGHTFUL PLACE IN LAST.....I HOPE THEY MAKE THE TOTAL FOR YOUR SAKE BUT NOT AT MY METS EXPENSE

I LIKE THEM UNDER 72.5:lol::toast:

I LIKE MY METS OVER 88.5
TWINS UNDER 84.5 TOO MANY EARLY INJURIES
YANKEES UNDER 95.5..WEAKER PEN , NO AROD UNTIL LATE MAY
WSOX OVER 79.5
MIL UNDER 80.5
PADRES UNDER 71.5 WILL THEY GET 60?? MY TOP TEAM TOTAL
BJAYS UNDER 80.5 THEY'RE GETTING OLD AND THE REST OF THE DISION MADE MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS

GOOD LUCK THIS YR..LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR DOG PLAYS
 

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