Toronto +1.5 RL +120

Search

New member
Joined
Oct 17, 2008
Messages
3,131
Tokens
Edge is what you make of it. If you believe you have a 4.8% edge, then by all means bet to win 4.8% of your bankroll. However the answer you are probably trying to figure out how LGH's edge differs from yours and how does he get the number that he does. I'm sure he (like myself) uses this tool or something similar to determine edge.
No I just paid attention in statistics class.

[(Risk + Win) * EV - Risk] / Risk = EDGE
 

New member
Joined
Oct 3, 2009
Messages
1,950
Tokens
Edge is what you make of it. If you believe you have a 4.8% edge, then by all means bet to win 4.8% of your bankroll. However the answer you are probably trying to figure out how LGH's edge differs from yours and how does he get the number that he does. I'm sure he (like myself) uses this tool or something similar to determine edge. -114.5/+114.5 puts out a 2.56% edge, but -119/+110 (what Pinnacle's number closed at) punches out 2.75% on +120. The calculator works a little different for baseball seeing how the only option is totals, so just punch in Pinnacle's number atop any other league (for the most part, line doesn't matter just don't go above and beyond) your books numbers in the fave price / dog price white boxes and you should be able to find out the edge you have on Pinnacle's current no vig line.

After accumulating 2000% worth of edges your bankroll should double if you follow Kelly Criterion (the edge percentage) exactly. Also, don't limit yourself to baseball when the same theories can be applied to other sports. I don't know ANYTHING about tennis, but I do know that Pinnacle (to quote the sharpest sports bettor I've ever read) "is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball" for bettors to follow. Alas, I am starting to win at another sport which conveniently happens to go on when there's nothing else to bet on and your bankroll is just sitting there screaming "make me larger".

BTW thanks to you and hooisers as you guys are trully the influence on the forum for this angle....giving crdeit where credit is due....but i am still have truoble putting this into the calcultor tool ...I am still getting different numbers....what do you put in the spread.....fav and dog in the top of the box...and then below in the chart?...
 

New member
Joined
Oct 17, 2008
Messages
3,131
Tokens
Step 1:

Enter in probabilities. For example, you have calculated a game to be +170/-180. Place those numbers in boxes and press calculate.

step1fg.jpg


Step 2:

Adjust calculated probability to find edge. Click outside of box once number is changed.

step2y.jpg


Rocket science.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 3, 2009
Messages
1,950
Tokens
thanks for the help...I was confused on why the non-vig number was important then?.....

so correct me if I am wrong but the twins then had a .48% edge RL vs the mets correct?
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,109,576
Messages
13,460,878
Members
99,480
Latest member
viact
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com