TOP PLAYS OF THE DAY FOR TUESDAY! BIG 10 GOM WINS!

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Gang! Well, yesterday followed the trend. One day I get spanked, the next day I spank back. In fact, yesterday my record for the day ended at: 9W-3L= +16 Units. Only problem with the day, was that I again started off ice cold, only to end the day SMOKIN HOT! I can only imagine, the "what if" I came out of the blocks on Fire. Dam I would be scooping big time. Well, I guess I should be at least thankful that I heated up at the end of the day, as it could of resulted in major damage. Anyway, today we try it again. Posting early again, as I see the lines moving out of my favor in these games. So Lets Get To Rockin!


7 Unit Big Ten Play of the Month:


Indy -1 (BIG WINNER)


-Today, is a big game for both squads in order for them to stay on top in the Conf with Wisconsin. Purdue comes in to this one with the #2 scoring defense holding its opponents to only 59.8 ppg. They are also #2 in the Conf in FT%. In these games these two stats are very important. Indy on the other hand is #2 in the conf in 3 point scoring per a game, with an avg sinking 6.6 coming from downtown. Purdue holds the #8 position in this category. While Purdue does play better Def, in this type of game, where rivalry is heated, I like to side with the home team if they are playing better ball then their opponents are. When I say better ball, I mean Offensively. Based on the last 5 games that each of them have played, I see that Purdue has basically held true to their low offensive avgs in ppg and FG %. Indy on the other hand has definately been stepping up their game in the past 5 they played. During this time, they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS, and have produced their highest scoring ppg avg for the season in this time. Their offense overall has also been shooting a higher % from the field in this time. Indy in my opinion although starting off slow in the beginning of the season, they have definately showed signs that they have found their game. Getting to the top of the Conf standings, and last weeks road win, give me strong evidence of this. Past history between these two has resulted in Indy going 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Purdue since 1997. I like that type of home dominance. Indy wins this one comfortably today.



4 Unit Plays on:


Florida -2 (SOLID WINNER)


-Alabama will miss their leading scorer and leader on the court in Ernest Shelton. He, not only avgs 16.2 ppg, but he also is an 80% FT shooter, and lastly he is ranked 3rd in the Conf in 3 point avg per a game with 2.4. The only thing I can say is that this is NOT good news at all for Alabama. Today, Alabama needed Shelton as they will be facing Florida who is #1 in the Conf in Scoring averaging 82.6 ppg. Alabama with Shelton was ranked 5th in the Conf averaging 73 ppg. Florida also is #1 in FG%, 3rd in FG% Def, and #1 in 3 point shots made per a game, with approx 8. Ala in the 3 pt shooting is ranked 8th in the Conf draining 6 per a game. But without Shelton to contribute his automatic avg of 2.4 three pointers a game, Alabama is now facing a major point deficit from behind the arc. Florida, already has a deeper bench than that of Ala, and that is another area where the Gators will be able to take advantage of. Lastly, based on the last 5 games each have played. Florida has definately increased their ppg average as well as their FG%. Alabama during this span, and with Shelton in the lineup, has struggled and their ppg and FG % has decreased to its lowest on the year. Without the consistant solid play of Shelton, you can expect that this fall in ppg and FG% to drop even further. Not a good time for Alabama. The Gators should win this one comfortably as long as they hold their conf leading TO margin to a minimum today. Go Gators!

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 28, 2004 at 12:07 AM.]

 

[jaypaw]

finally we agree on a game...

maybe this is bad news from the betting gods.

But Florida should kill Bama.



My only question about the game is - what would the line be if this jerk shelton was not injured?

Would Bama actually be favored?

 

[Co-Captain]

Adding:


3 Unit Plays on:


Tenn Tech +1 (LOSE by 1 fvckin pt again!)

UW-Milw -2(buy .5pt)(EASY WINNER)


-Austin Peay does have the depth advantage in this one, but even with it they are struggling to score on the road, avg only 60ppg and shooting only 39% from the field. Tenn Tech on the other hand, is a solid 8-1 at home and that is where they do all their scoring. At home they average a whopping 86.2 ppg and shot over 50% from the field. Austin Peay does have the #2 scoring defense in the conf, holding their opponents to only 61 ppg. Still, I like Tenn Tech who has the #2 Scoring offense in the Conf and is also #3 in 3 point shots made per a game with 7.7. Austin Peay ranks near the bottom in this category. Although Austin Peay is on top of the Conf standings, I also find confidence with Tenn Tech based on the past histories between the two, which shows TT going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs AP the last 3 years. Look for Tenn Tech's Mr. Everything Willie Jenkins who also leads the Conf in Scoring with 20.7 ppg , to also lead his Techster teammates to an upset at home over a road struggling Austin Peay squad.

-These two teams are #1 and #2 in the Conf standings, so this one is an important game for both. Usually in these games, I favor the home team. But today, the stats I see and the low number tell me to take a chance with the better Offensive team. UW-Milw is ranked #1 in scoring offense in the conf with an avg of 79.1 ppg. Wright St holds the 7th spot in the conf averaging just 66.6 ppg. The two are very close in FT % and are listed in the number 2 and 3 spot in this category. But UW-Milw is #1 in FG% and #3 in 3pt FG%. They are also ranked #3 in 3 point scoring per a game with draining 6.6 from behind the arc. Wright in this category is 2nd to last in the conf in 3pt scoring per a game. Although both teams have stepped up their averages in ppg and FG% in the last 5 games, it is Wright St's at home record which I see giving me an edge here. They are barely over .500 at home , with a record of 4-3 SU. UW-Milw has gone a solid 7-4 on the road. Plus with this number as low as it is, I simply see UW-Milw covering it with another solid road win.


Well Gang, as you may have noticed, I am backing the teams who has the better overall offenses, or at least the offenses that are playing better ball at this time. Whatever the case my be, today I feel confident in these teams and their better scoring abilities. Lets start today off with a BIG win with my first Big Ten GOM play on Indy. Today, we take it to the man again with a solid outing. Good Luck to all and Aloha CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 27, 2004 at 10:33 PM.]

 

[jaypaw]

About this statement:

"Indy on the other hand has definately been stepping up their game in the past 5 they played. During this time, they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS, and have produced their highest scoring ppg avg for the season in this time."



In the last 5 games they have:

-Beat Minny by 5 at Minnesota (who hasnt won a game in the conference yet and they have yet to play the good teams in the conference)
-Beat Ohio State by 8 at Ohio State (who isnt atop much either)
-Beat Northwestern by 11(who? - exageration I know they have suprised some teams but still)
-Beat Michigan by 2(Competitive team but beatable for sure)
- and lost AT Wisconsin (who blew indiana out)

and dont forget the loss to temple the week before that...


In Purdue's last 5 games:

- Beat Michigan State by 6
- Bean Minnesota by 7
- Beat Wisconsin by 2
- Beat Illinois (at Illinois) by 4
- and lost AT Iowa by 10


Sifting through all this I see that Indiana has done well on the road while Purdue has been playing tougher competition (and successfully so) most recently at home.

So Purdue goes to Indiana. But Indiana hasnt been "tested" much at all this season

(Wisconsin was a test [failed], and I suppose you could consider Temple at test [also failed], and certainly the 41-80 loss to Kentucky was a test as well, as was also their losses to Missouri, At Wake, and at Vanderbilt)

Purdue has been "tested" by Iowa ([failed] losing by 10), SMU ([failed]losing by 1), AT Colorado State (losing by 2), and AT Oklahoma (losing by 2).

And dont forget the tests that Purdue has passed:
Winning at Illinois, AT Duke, and vs Seton Hall and Wisconsin.


I'm not saying Indiana won't play tough, but I'm just cautioning playing them in this situation because in my opinion Purdue at least has proven some things that Indiana has not yet done.

 

[Co-Captain]

jaypaw, I appreciate your opinion. Still, it is my GOM play, and it is already locked and loaded. Anyway, I see that you and I definately have a different way of capping games to play. I dont necessarily look at everyone that a team may have played from day one. I see it more of a benefit to see how they did in the past few games. Now as far as who they have faced and who they have faced , faced. Well, to me every team has different and separate situational setups and they all experience different advantages over another team and vise versa. So this is why you cant do so much comparison with who they played and what was the outcomes. Sure those things play a part in the overall strength and selection on a play, but it is not use by me to majoritize my reason for a play. No , I look at certain games, and try to find those situational setups or advantages that one may have over the other. Their is many different things I look at and what I am trying to say is that, past play is just a small portion of it. You still need to compare things like when they played a team , where, etc,. Then try and compare it to the now and present. But again, this is just another part of the process. Each week and each game can change the complexity , motivations, momentums, etc, so you have to be on top on it game by game to be able to hit your spots. Just looking at the past games played doesnt giving you the overall truthful picture in my opinion. Also, when looking at the Big Ten, you have to know that it is a very competitive conf and that any team can upset the other on any given night. This competitive play makes it even that much more harder for one to label a team as good, poor , or terrible. I think its not smart to do that especially in regards to this conf.

I have gone over this play and selection , hopefully hitting every angle. Still , I came out with the same outcome to warrant my selection. GL to you and your plays today. Aloha CC.

 

[GreenDoberman]

co-captain and jaypaw, I couldn't agree more on IU. This will be a tight one, but they will beat Purdue. I'm going to be all over this one.

 

[jaypaw]

"I see it more of a benefit to see how they did in the past few games"

I see this benefit too thus my point:


""""""""""""""""""""In the last 5 games they have:

-Beat Minny by 5 at Minnesota (who hasnt won a game in the conference yet and they have yet to play the good teams in the conference)
-Beat Ohio State by 8 at Ohio State (who isnt atop much either)
-Beat Northwestern by 11(who? - exageration I know they have suprised some teams but still)
-Beat Michigan by 2(Competitive team but beatable for sure)
- and lost AT Wisconsin (who blew indiana out)

and dont forget the loss to temple the week before that...


In Purdue's last 5 games:

- Beat Michigan State by 6
- Beat Minnesota by 7
- Beat Wisconsin by 2
- Beat Illinois (at Illinois) by 4
- and lost AT Iowa by 10 """""""""""""""""""


To me despite the fact that purdue was at home - it appears that they have faced tougher competition. Even accounting for a possibly difficult road situation I still believe that the opponents that Purdue has been playing are better than the opponents that Indiana has been playing (not only over this 5 game period but for the whole season for what its worth).

In 5 games Purdue beats 3 top big ten opponents at home and 1 on the road, Indiana beats 2 "bottom" big ten opponents on the road, and 2 "bottom" big ten opponents at home.

So this boils down to me pretty clearly - over the last 5 games these two teams have played relatively comparable schedules all things considered. Is home court advantage the final determinant here?


This remains to be seen and it appears as though the line has been drawn.

- I believe the home court here is irrelevant given the fact that Purdue has proven themselves on the road, and Indiana has not.

- You believe that on any given day in the big ten a team can win against another team regardless of recent performance so you think Indiana will win by more than a point.


Is this a correct analysis ?

I doubt I'll play this game but I wish you the best of luck.

Also thanks for the discussions in the end I think it will make a better crapper and capper...

 

[Co-Captain]

jaypaw, like I mentioned, not one factor is used to determine my selection. It is a combination of things.

Anyways, with all your analysis seemingly favoring Purdue in this one. Why not play this game. You seem to be very confident in your insights, analysis, and comparison between the two. You should play Purdue. Your arguments for them seems worthy enough to do that. GL.

 

[BZ]

cap,
good luck tonight. I completely agree with Ind.

 

[Co-Captain]

OK then BZ lets kick ass. Aloha CC.

 

[Excell]

Michigan St. should have beaten Purdue in regulation but they didn't convert the free throw so they lost in OT. Purdue had the home crowd on Sunday but not today

 

[tigerclicks]

Hey CC,

I'm with you on Indy but didn't want to post it in the POD until someone else broke the ice....

I like the other side of wisc. Milw. but at least one of us will win!

GL...chill

 

[Co-Captain]

good to see we agree on Indy. Wisc milw is a low play, so we being on opposite ends is ok. I want to hit my GOM. GL to us today , Aloha CC..

 

[Kodiak7]

nice thread! I totally disagree with Ind. however.. Coaching and DEFENSE lies on the side of the Boilermakers.. I hate taking road teams in the BIG 10 but after you all see Ind lack of a scoring threat tonight you'll understand why I loved Purdue as my Play of the night, and one of my Plays of the week!

Great chat though gentlemen... continue on...

this is why this site is useful... GOOD chat about a game... I know I get on a copuple of guys but this is exactly why.. The people I get on have no idea why they have went this way or that and simply post to post.. I know the scammers from the solid sources so I just try to point that out from time to time!

 

[Matt24]

Should also remember IU has only lost 1 game all year with George Leach in the lineup, at Vandy. he has been back the last 4 games and the team has played completely different. The question is, will Booker play tonight for PU, I doubt it.

 

[Kodiak7]

great point Matt and that was taken into consideration before I made my play on Purdue!

My final decision to make this a POW instead of a avg play was the fact that on Sunday Purdue won a HUGE game and in so gained confindence and momentum going into tonight.. This game is always good..A in-state rivalry at its finest.. I just do not see Indiana being able to score with Purdue tonight.. I can see this as a under 55 night for sure for Indi... With that being the case how many times this year has Purdue been held under 55 points? Give me Lowe and Purdue to win by 10...

 

[Kapusta]

Cap love the Florida pick, theres a reason why that line is moving up! We will cash on this one buddy, stay hot! Aloha my friend!

 

[Allstar]

Co-Captain,

Love the Florida plays tonight as well. Good luck tongiht my friend!!!

ALLSTAR

 

[GoUH]

Can't say I really LOVE any of the games today. If I had a gun to my head, I'd go with Indy at home.

I see what you're saying about Austin Peay and T Tech, T Tech is dangerous at home while AP is bad on the road. But again, gun at head, I'd take AP.

I'm actually thinking about taking the day off, can't get excited about any of the games.

Florida seems the obvious pick, but concerns over ranked teams visiting unranked teams with a small spread, well, I generally like to play the home team (like Indy). So I can't get myself to play Florida either. I hope the injury factors in for you.

I guess I'll just route for your teams and hope you win a truck load buddy!

GL!

 

[cincreds]

Can anyone tell me how many games, if any, has Shelton been out for?

Thx in advance.