GEORGIA TECH VS OKLA ST
**TOP 6 UNIT PLAY ON:
OKLAHOMA ST -4 (buy .5pt)(-115 Carib)
(LOSE SU)
-Well, it seems that most people are on GT as many feel that this is simply to many points to be giving in a Final Four Game. Well, in the previous Final Four games that had Favs of 4-6pts, they went 12-4 SU and ATS. Still, although this past Tourney stat eliminates my wondering about this number being to high, it is other reasons why I like Ok St today to win and cover this number.
One of those reasons, is because Ok St is #1 shooting team in the land hitting approx 51% of its shots from the field over the entire season. Their Offense, even though I wouldnt label it as on fire, it is very accurate to say that they have been very effecient in its scoring. In fact, although their scoring average on the road of 73.3pts a game has dropped to 67.4 ppg over their last 5 games, they have still been able to hold their shooting % to above 50%.
GT's Offense has struggled in their first two Tourney games, but have pick it up Offensively in their last two games scoring an average of 75pts. Based on their last 5 games combined, they are averaging 68.8 ppg and 44.6% shooting from the field. This is a decrease in their Offensive scoring over this span as compared to all their Rd games played this year, where they are averaging 73.3 ppg and shooting 46.2% from the field. GT currently is just 1-5 ATS, 1-6 ATS the 3 seasons, vs Good Defensive teams allowing less than 64 pts per game after 15 games. Also, what should be addressed is in this two game span where the GT's Offensive has increased its production, it was surprising done without their leading scorer in G BJ Elder, who was injured in their match with Nevada and who could not go in their next game vs the Fire Power of St Joes. Elders is listed as questionable today, and I think that even if he does play, it will not be at 100% and that is what is needed against this Ok ST backcourt tandem. In his absense, G Jarret Jacks stepped up and had a career scoring night with 29pts. In the Nevada game, Marvin Lewis step in for the injuried Elders, and he as well had a stellar night scoring 23pts ov Nevada. Now, it is because of these stellar performance by Jack and Lewis, which makes me also want to side with Ok St, as it will be very hard for them to duplicate those performances again, espcially that incridible game that Jake had vs Kansas.
Now Ok St's better offensive stats still is not enough to stand alone by itself in this game. I think we all have seen games where the teams shooting a higher FG% to their opponents were by no means representative of who was leading in the game. But, better shooters is to me a good place to start and the first piece to this puzzle backing Ok ST today.
Second reason I like Ok ST, because of their stellar defensive play which they have continued to play All year long, but more so in their last 5 games. In this span, Ok St's Defense is holding its opponents to ONLY 54.2 ppg and just 36.5% shooting from the field. In their last game vs St Joes, their solid defensive play was successful in holding this potent St Joes club to just 38% shooting from the field. St Joes is a team who shoots approx 50% from the field. Ok ST has ONLY just allowed its opponents to shoot 23.1% from down town, since the Big 12 Championship game vs Texas. Also, besides holding St Joes as a team to a low shooting %, this Ok St defense was as well able to take away the scoring threat of Player of the Year winner Jameer Nelson, allowing him to ONLY make 6 of 18 shots and score a total of 17pts. This stellar defensive play is a definate reason why they are in this Final Four game today.
GT's as well has played stellar defense throughout the year, holding opponents on the road to an average of 70.6 ppg and 39.4% shooting from the field. And in their last 5 games their defense has been holding it's opponents to a lower average of 67.4 ppg and a slight increase in opps shooting % of 40.9%. They also have only been allowing their opponents to shot ONLY 30% from behing the ARC since their loss to Duke in the ACC Tournement. Still, GT's Defensive in their last game with that Jayhawk Finese type of Offense struggled to hold on to good leads they had. This is not a good sign, as Ok St is capable of playing both a Finese game and a Power game. This ability of Ok St to adjust to both this type of Offensive play, will allow them to disrute any pace or rhythum that GT will try to establish. This ability to play a balance type of Offense was evident in their game vs Pitt(power) and against St Joes(finese), and Coach Sutton is a master at mixing things up in order to keep teams on their heels.
Ok now that we addressed the both teams Offenses and Defenses. This is where I see Ok St having the decided advantages and which I feel will be the major KEYS to them finding success today over GT. KEY number one, OK ST will DOMINATE the BOARDS ov this average rebounding team of GT. In their last 5 games, Ok St has been simply owning the Boards grabbing an average of 37 rpg, while they are ONLY allowing opponents to grab an average of just 28.2 rpg. GT, on the other hand, in their last 5 games have been splitting the Board amounts almost evenly with its opponents grabbing 36.4 rpg to opponents 35.6 rpg.
In this matchup of the Big Uglys, the Board Bangin duo of McFarlin and Graham, as well as Allen, should be to much for GT to out do. Expect this the Ok St rebounders to out physical and out manuver the slower weaker GT rebounding tandem of Luke and Muhammed. McFarlin for Ok St is simply an animal and Graham is a magnetic to score when the ball is in the air. Together they have been dominate in the paint, but add in the 3rd leading rebounder in the mix with G Allen, and Ok St has been unstoppable. This dominance and ability to get easy putbacks is partially why Ok St has a high FG% from the field. In their last 3 of the 5 games(not going to include E Wash or St Joes, as they suck in reb.), they have dominated the Boards over the #2 Rebounding team in the Big East in Pitt, the #6 Rebounding team in Conf USA in Memphis, the #1 Rebounding team in the Big 12 in Texas. Ok St is ranked #2 in the Big 12 in Rebounding Margin. This dominance like is simply due to the combination to McFarlin, Allen, and Graham, All at one time or another in this span has grabbed more boards then the other two. There swarming aggressiveness around the boards is what will cause GT's big guys to be overwhelmed and it should happen very easily.
GT's Board Bangers of 7-1 Luke S. and Muhammad are simply to weak dow low to compete with this bunch. In fact, GT was one of the poorest rebounding teams in the ACC, ranking #8 in Rebounding Margin, only topping Virginia in this catergory. Other telling evidence of this weakness for GT can be seen in All of their last 5 games played. In All these games, GT's Big men of Luke and Muhammad were outboarded, by Kansas, Nevada, BC, Duke, and yes No Iowa. Together in this span, they have only grabbed DDs rebounds in just two of the last five games. Also, while C Luke S leads the team in rpg, it is G Jack that is second in this category, while Muhammad is third. The Battle of the Boards should clearly be dominated by the Cowboys today. Lastly, I would be careful in buying into all the praises of 7-1 C Luke S which is being mostly based off of his surprising play against Kansas. In that game, Kansas's over whelming reliance on Simeon down low, made it simple for Luke to survive Simeon's onslaught. All GT did to counter Kansas heavy reliance on Simeon was to trap him every time he came near the ball down low. This totally frustrated Simeon into taking poor shots and cause 16 turnovers. But it also allowed Luke to stay out of foul trouble and it allowed him to break free to grab more boards and score more pts. Still, even with the double and triple teaming help with Simeon, Luke still only grabbed just 4 rebs and in fact G Jack led the team with 9 boards. If the guards have to come to help out down low on the boards against this Ok ST team, who is going to defend Lucas and Allen from running fast breaks. GT will be in trouble here, as they could get burned by Lucus breaking away down court for fast break ez layups.
KEY number two that gives Ok ST another advantage in this game, will be in their Guard play. Ok St today will have the edge in the Backcourt with Allen the scorer, rebounder, and playmaker, and Lucus the Big 12's Player of the Year and OK ST's field General who provides the Cowboys all the important means needed to succeed, like the assist, the big shots, the control and pace of this team. Besides all the other things that Ok St's backcourt provides, they also will have a decided advantage over GT's Backcourt in the scoring department. So far in the Tournament, there is already a lopsided advantage in the Starting Backcourt of Ok ST compared to the Starting Backcourt of GT. Ok ST's Backcourt in the Tournament has scored 142pts and shot 52.2% from the field. GT's Starting Backcourt has scored 97pts and shot only 30.8% from the field. And while Lucus and Allen have remained consistant in their play, due to GT's leading scorer BJ Elder's being out, GT's has rode the hot hand of G Lewis's 23pts in the Nevada game, and G Jack's season high of 29pts in the Kansas game. Two things I feel working against GT, is even if Elder returns he will not be 100% and that will not be good enough to keep up with Ok ST's Allen. Then second, based on the hot hands by Lewis and Jack, which was the reason for GT moving on, I simply have to go against them repeating those performance, especially against this backcourt and against this defense of Ok ST. They came through in those games, but that was against Nevada of the WAC, and a Kansas team whose defense has been very suspect and penetrable.
Lastly, here are some minor information and situations involving this game, that by itself may not be worth anything, but together I see them playing a valued role in completing Ok ST's run to the National Title Game over GT.
*Ok St is 8-3 ATS when favored by at least 5pts.
*Coach Sutton will have the edge as this will be his third Final Four appearance, while GT's Coach Hewitt will be making his first ever trip to a Final Four game.
*Ok St is the healthier team right now.
*Ok St is on a 10 game win streak.
*Ok St plays with 4 starting SR's and a Jr. Plus, their top 3 reserves are all Sr's as well. GT has only 1 starting Sr in Lewis.
*Ok St plays for the players who died in the 2001 plane crash, who would of been Sr and on this team.
*Someone mentioned the Lucus to Lucus connection, which is a tight one and can be very valuable especially when one of the Lucus's is the Big 12 Player of the Year, and the other one is a well known player and coach who is sick.
*Coach Sutton wants it All and this Sr heavy team wants to send him off into retirement a National Champion. This is his last horray and he will make the most of it.
*Ok St is the team of DESTINY!
*Ok St has only lost 3 games the entire year.
*This game is being played in Texas, and should have more wild Cowboy fans than GT fans.
*Ok St gets the win and cover, BECAUSE JESUS LOVES ME!
**Ok Gang, I will have a side on the other games and possibly an O/U play. So feel free to check back later if interested.Good luck Gang, and Aloha CC.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on April 03, 2004 at 08:18 PM.]
