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Aloha Gang. Well, last week we had a successful run which put us up +55 Units for the Week just in the hoops alone. Today, we start a new run for this week. Lets start it off with a winning Day for all. Lets Rock!

6 Unit Play on:


AF -1


-This selection with the Falcons, is simply based on the numbers and AF's discipline play. Here are the numbers. AF has a deeper bench than Unlv. AF is 8-1 in their last 3 games off a win against a Conf rival. Currently, AF is 6-1 when playing against a team with a winning record. AF is 7-2 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road. They are averaging 58.6 ppg and 46% from the field, while holding its opponents to just 49 ppg. In AF last 5 games, they have gone 5-0 SU and ATS, and has also increased their scoring average to 65 ppg and their shooting percentage from the field to 56%. During this time, they have also still held their opponents to ONLY 44 ppg and 42% from the field. Unlv in the last 5 games have gone 2-3 SU and ATS, but eventhough they have stepped up their Offensive production abit, they have played weaker on the Defensive end, allowing their opponents in this time to average 77.2 ppg and shoot 44%FG. This is up from their previous of holding opponents to 65 ppg and 42%FG. Other numbers I in favor of AF are: AF is #1 in Scoring Def, Scoring Margin, FG%, 3 pt FG% Def, T/O Margin, Assit/TO Ratio, and 3 pts made per a game with 9. Unlv in this last category is ranked 7th draining 5.7 three's per game. Also , AF is 2-0 ATS at Unlv the last 3 seasons and 3-1 ATS in all games against Unlv. AF is simply a better shooting team in FG%, FT%, and 3 PT%, than Unlv is. Lastly, AF has only allowed its opponents to score over 40+ pts just 4 times in 17 games this year. This type of patient Off along with AF stinginess on Defense, has been successful because they are a discipline ball club. Today again, they will dictate and take control of the ball game , disrupting Unlv's run and gun type of play. I am backing AF until they lose, I dont see it happening tonight.


4 Unit Plays on:


Miami Ohio -2(LOSE BY 3pts SU- Dam Miami O let an 8pt lead get away w/ a few minutes left in game, and lose by 3)

Georgia Southern -4(PUSH- after being up dd's, Fvck Me)

Idaho St +8(LOSE -another team up by dd and end up losing by dd)


-Miami Ohio and Ohio are the two worst scoring Off's teams in the Conf. But Miami Ohio is #1 in the Conf in Scoring Def holding Opponents to ONLY 61 ppg. Ohio is #4 in Scoring Def giving up 68.2 ppg. Miami Ohio has 4 returning starters and a deeper bench than Ohio. Currently, Miami O is also 5-1 after holding its opponents to Under 60 ppg. They are 5-1 as a favorite and 2-0 on the road as Favs of 3pts or less. Miami O is also 4-1 ATS on the road this year. In their last 5 games, they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS, and 6-2 SU and ATS in Conf games. They have also during this time, improved their Offensive scoring output averaging a higher ppg and FG%, with 65.8 ppg and 42% FG. They have as well stepped up on their Defensive play, holding Opponents to only a 57 ppg and 37% FG average. Ohio, on the other hand, in the last 5 games has simply struggled Defensively allowing their Opponents to average 75 ppg and 46% FG, as well as going 2-3 SU during this stretch. Today, it is an easy decision to back the Team with the Stingier Def, and team who doesnt seem to be just playing out the rest of the schedule.

-This line to me is low enough for me to take a GS team that is on a tear. This year , they have gone 7-3 SU and 6-1 ATS on the road. Here they average 79.7 ppg and shoot 45% from the field. In their last 5 games though, they have gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. In Conf games they are 7-1 SU and ATS. Appl St in their last 5 games though have struggled Defensively going 1-4 SU and ATS. Defensively is where they have been lacking during this span of games. Appl St has been giving up an average of 81 ppg and 46.5% FG to its Opponents. Stat wise in this one, GS is ranked near the top in almost every category, whereas Appl St rates mid to bottom of the Conf. I have to back GS with their 4 returning starters and deeper bench in this one today. Also, Appl St may as well be showing signs like Ohio of just playing out the rest of the schedule, this seems evident due to their lack of motivation to play good Defense. Take the better team.

-Based on the last 5 games, Idaho St have gone 3-2 SU, and has played better ball Offensively, raising their scoring average in ppg to its highest at 79.2 ppg and 49% FG. Idaho, on the other hand, have gone 2-3 SU, but in this span, they have simply struggled BADLY Offensively averaging a season low average of 60 ppg and a dismal 39% FG. Idaho St is a simply a much better shooting team in FG% and 3 pt FG% wise. They do have a weak Def, but with the struggles of Idaho Offensively, Idaho St's Offense can probably win this one. I cannot see why this bottom dweller in Idaho with all their Offensive woes, being favored by 8 pts. Well, like I said before take the gift and dont question it. Again , take the POINTS.


3 Unit Plays on:


Syracuse +12.5(LOSE)


-Just to many points for this game for top position. In this one I see a even matchup in the front and backcourts between the two. The advantage I see with UConn is they have a deeper bench. Syracuse is not a bad road team and Coach Beyheim will have his team ready in this one. Take the generous POINTS.



-Gang, I will possibly have one more play to add to this card later, still need to get more info. You can check back later, or just play these plays, as I feel good about this card I put up today. I want to start this week off on a winning note and play the week from the positive. Good Luck to All today and Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 03, 2004 at 03:09 AM.]
 

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Pitbull, same to you as well. Lets start this week on a winning note. GL and Aloha CC.
 
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Good Luck Capt...I am with you on AF and cuse...Good luck to you my friend and I hope you sweep the damn board today....


Joe
 

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Adding:

2 Unit ML Play on:

Idaho St +300 ML



-I just could not resist, as I feel that Idaho St will win this one outright today. Better Off, vs struggling bad Off. Worth a chance. GL and Aloha CC.
 

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like all of them. ohio u scares me at home though and idaho's rebounding edge over idaho st worries me

good luck
 

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Joe same to you as well. I hope we both sweep the board today. That would be so sweet. GL and Aloha CC.
 

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Kid, I know what you are feeling. In those two games, I saw Miami Ohio's solid Defensive play and Ohio's current lack of a Def, as the Key that will get me the win. Miami Ohio has only allowed one team this year to score over 70 pts. Def is what wins games for them. In the Idaho St game, going with the better Offensive team who is improving , against an Idaho Off who is sliding downwards. Now averaging only 39% FG and 60 ppg, based on their last 5 games. Plus, their allowing opponents to avg more pts. The points is way to much. But I am taking my chances on a small ML play as well as I think Idaho St can win this one outright. GL and Aloha CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 02, 2004 at 02:49 PM.]
 

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Hi CC
I just recently started to watch your picks.
Where can I find your ytd-stats?
Thanks.
 

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I dont usually list a year to date stat. I tally it at mid and end of the season, for myself. I will most often give a final update for day and then start the following days thread with the previous days record. I will also post a weekly record as well. Their are those that I know are keeping track of my record. At another site , I think they have a on going record. Here, I see it more beneficial for others and me as well to keep a weekly record. That way I will be able to monitor my Units losses and won as they happen, instead of lumping it all together. No one will be able to distinguish when I was hot or cold , etc. To me it is more easier for others like yourself to monitor how I am doing by keeping track of my final weeks records. That way you will be more able to decipher when it is I am cold and when I am hot, as we all know streaks is part of the business. Catching someone on a streak or off of one is important if your going to coat tail someone.

If this helps you at all, I can give you a partial NFL record, and last weeks BB record. For the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl my Rec is 20W-10L= +39 Units. Last weeks College BB rec was 38W-24L-1P= +55 Units. The previous weeks and months records are saved on a disk to tally later. Some may be in the achieves here, if you want to look them up. This year in hoops I am still down abit, as I could never string solid days or weeks together, in the beggining of the season. Only until recently, have I seem to have found some successful grove, in BB as evident with last weeks Big Unit Wins. By the way, I rate my plays from 1 Unit to 10 Units. My 10 Unit plays would be my GOY plays. So far I am 3-0 with my GOY plays. I hit my college FB and BB GOY Plays, and just yesterday I hit my NFL GOY Teaser Play. All my plays will be rated according to units with the higher value representing the better % play.

Hey majbrit, I hope that I am not confusing you with my explanation. Thanks for asking me about it. Feel free to ask my any other questions you might have and I will try and help you out.. Aloha CC.
 

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Thanks for your very thorough explanation.
I am looking forward to following your bets!
Took them today.

Regards from Majbrit
 

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Cap great job, gonna hop on your 6 Unit play! Air Force is for real!
 

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Kapusta, of course the more the merrier. Current win streak on the 6 Unit Plays are at 3-1. Lets make it 4-1 after today. Yes, AF is for real. Solid Def, Solid ball control Off, Solid 3pt shooting, and Solid Team Discipline. I wish I knew this a couple games back. Anyways, last time I remember Unlv in this spot on National TV was last year against Utah, who was leading the conf at that time. Well, they lost. I really dont see their HC being an advantage for them at all. I see Unlv Off being complete out of wack as they like to play run and gun, but AF wont let any of their games get out of their control. This has frustrated and thrown off so many teams not use to this type of slow pace. Gl to us, and Aloha CC.
 

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Hey Cap, You see the Illinois/Indiana game for tomorrow night in Bloomington?

Do some of your own research, but i have to tell you and everyone else, this is an EASY win for Indiana. They should be favored, not +3 1/2!!

Never thought I would care much about this team, but they seem to be the real deal...

GO AIR FORCE!!
 

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Adding:


3 Unit Plays on:

Marshall +6.5(LOSE)

Tulsa +1(LOSE)



-Marshall is not as bad a team. Akron no good at all covering the number. Thay are 1-5 Ats in conference games. Also , 2-5 Ats as a favorite. This poor ats, tells me they arent ready to be a favorite and cant handle that role to good.

-Tulsa can put up some points, and so can Nevada. But in this one, I am going with the team who plays better Def, is at home, ranks #2 in Conf in 3pt shots made per a game, and playing to Revenge an earlier season loss. Golden Hurricane almost upset league leader Hawaii and took them to OT. This should be close as well, but the factors in Tulsa's favor which I pointed out above should be the difference in this one today. Upset Special.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 02, 2004 at 10:32 PM.]
 
Agree 100 percent with Georgia Southern and Idaho State.

I came up with Ga Sou by 11 and ID State by 4.

Good luck to us CC!

sb
 

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sportsbet, I also had Ga S by dd win and Idaho St winning by a couple of hoops for an outright upset win. GL to us today , Aloha CC.
 

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Captain:

Good luck on your plays tonight. Hope you keep those winning ways going.
bowdown.gif


Thanks for the kind words yesterday. Truly enjoy sharing our work together on these forums.
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