TOP PLAYS OF THE DAY FOR BIG MONDAY, 2-16!

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Gang! Well today is the start of a new week, so lets get this started the right way. Yesterday I hit another Game of the Month play with Pitt. That brings my Rec for my GOM plays to 7-0 this season in college BB. Today, I almost had two more GOM plays as more will come as the season wines down and teams will be fighting hard and jocking for position. But, I decided not to push my luck seeing how things have slow down abit. Still, they do represent strong plays for me. So without further adew , Lets Start This Party Off Right!



6 Unit Plays on:


OKLAHOMA +2- Well, I know that alot of people will be on Okla St and I dont blame them, as them Cowboys are on fire now. I played them as one of my GOM's against Kansas and they gave me a Huge win. Today though is different as the situations to me is in favor of the Sooners. Now I dont know why many others arent looking at the fact that OU has beaten TT by 15pts at home and just as everyone were feeling that they were done. OSU got spanked by 21pts at TT and so did Oklahoma, but OSU only could win at home to TT by ONLY 4pts. Also, as far as the not so dominating game that OU played at Texas A&M in their game goes, I feel that it was probably due to them suffering from a slight hangover or the fact that they were eyeing this Big game with OSU. Either way they still won the game, and thus I will throw out that game in regards to this one. Oklahoma is a solid 11-1 SU at home, and Okla St is 5-2 SU on the road. This shows me that OSU has a higher % of losing on the road, then does OU losing at home. To also back this play, is the fact that OU at home has played solid Defense holding all opponents to just 38% shooting from the field, while OSU is allowing opponents to shoot 44% from the field when on the road. Bottom line is, I have witnessed to many games like this where Instate Rivals play and the one coming in is on Top, only to be brought back down to earth because the struggling home team uses this game as their so called Bowl Game, or their perfect opportunity to get back Respect. And dont forget how big it is for recruiting purposes. Oklahoma needs this one to get back National Respect as the Tournament approaches. They got some back with their dismanteling of TT, but they need more than that. OSU I am thinking, sees this game as just another game because of where they stand Nationally right now as far as the Tournament is concerned. So although this is important for OSU, its not a do or die for them, as it may be for OU. OSU wins with its guards, and even if they do have good ones, I feel so does OU, especially in games at home. HCA is HUGE in the Big 12, just look at the Kansas/Neb game, and OSU/TT and OU/TT series, for some examples. This game is setting up for a Big OSU upset, and Big redemption game for Respect amongst other things for OU. Home and the better Defensive Team should be the difference in this one, especially in this situation and especially during this time of the year. OU wins this straight up today in Norman. Go Sooners!


DELAWARE -1 - Delaware is solid at home going 8-2 SU, and averaging 74 ppg. UNCW lost 6 of their last 8 road games. Also, in road games this year they are ONLY averaging 60 ppg and ONLY 31% shooting from the field. Some other stats that reflects negatively on UNCW is that they are currently 2-3 ATS as an Underdog. 3-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. And 1-3 ATS when playing against teams with winning records after 15 or more games. They are also currently 0-3 ATS when playing with one or less days of rest. Lastly, UNCW ranks last in the Conf in Scoring Off, FG%, and near the bottom in Rebounding. Delaware, on the other hand, is currently 2-0 ATS when playing in one or less days rest, and being at home should maintain this undefeated ATS record. Del is also currently 2-0 ATS as a Home Fav of 3pts or less or pick. Lastly, they are 2-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record after 15 or more games this year. Del plays with 4 returning starters and they have only lost by one pt to UNCW at UNCW, so the Revenge Factor is on their side also. NOTE: I picked this information up from another source, and it shows that in the Colonial Athletic Conf play this year, the Home Team are 42-19 in Conf games. Today Delaware makes it 43-19 for the home teams.(PUSH-by last sec 3, & miss FT's. DAM!)

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 09:26 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

4 Unit Plays on:


BALL ST -1.5 - Ball St has covered the last 4 in the series between the two, and the home team has won 8 of the last 10. Ball St did also beat this Miami Ohio team in Oxford by 6pts. Miami Ohio on the road is ONLY scoring 59 ppg and shooting ONLY 39% from the field. This game is a home game series and in the MAC, the home teams are the way to go. Winning on the road in the Mac is tough, just ask Conf leader Western Michigan. Home team only way to go.(LOSE SU)


UTAH -3 - Utah is solid this year as a Fav posting a 10-4 ATS record. Utah is also on a 4 game winning streak, while Wyoming is on a 4 game lossing streak. Here is a list of negative stats and trends working against Wyoming.
-Wyoming is currently 1-6 ATS, 11-27 ATS last 3 seasons, after a Conf game.
-currently 1-6 ATS, 7-17 ATS last 3 seasons, after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.
-currently 0-2 ATS, 2-8 ATS last 3 seasons, as a home underdog of 3pts or less.
-currently 0-8 ATS, 8-17 ATS last 3 seasons, as an Underdog.
-currently 4-15 ATS, 23-51 ATS last 3 seasons, in all lined games.
-currently 0-3 ATS, 5-13 ATS last 3 seasons, in games played in Feb.
-currently 1-5 ATS, 5-12 ATS last 3 seasons, off a loss against a Conf rival.
-currently 1-3 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent.
-currently 0-8 ATS, 6-19 ATS last 3 seasons vs good Def teams allowing less than 64pts per game.
-currently 0-3, 3-12 ATS last 3 seasons vs good Def teams allowing less than 64pts per game after 15+ games.
-currently 3-13 ATS, 17-36 ATS last 3 seasons when playing against a team with a winning record.
-currently 1-4 ATS, 9-22 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more game.
-currently 1-5 ATS, 5-18 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing with one or less days rest.

Utah is 2-0 ATS vs Wyoming at Laramie over the last 3 seasons, and 4-1 ATS overall over the last 3 seasons. Utah also already beat Wyoming by 11pts back on 1-17. Utah's big men should be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the court today as Wyoming doesnt have an answer to stop them. Also, Utah's style of Off and stingy Def should be to much for this Cowboy squad to figure out. Coach Majeros no longer at the helm, but this Utah squad is responding very well without him. The Utah Trees to Tall for the Cowboys to climb. LOL

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 10:10 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

3 Unit Plays on:


BYU -5 - Ok, first off Yes I know about BYU's current road record this year is poor. But I played them over Wyoming in their last game at Wyoming, because they are in a situation where they need to step things up a bit as March approaches, and also because Araujo is simply unstoppable and dominating games in the paint. Currently BYU is 10-5 ATS, and 18-8 ATS the last 3 seasons as a Favorite. They are also 3-1 ATS after allowing 60pts or less. BYU is playing solid ball on the Defensive end right now and this is a big reason for their solid win streak. Col St's stats show that they are scoring alot of points at home averaging 80 ppg. But looking closer, most of the points were put up against teams where they had an advantage in the paint with Nelson. Today, Nelson is listed is questionable for this game. Still though, if he does decide to play, he wont be at full strength and that is not a good at all against BYU's Araujo. BYU Araujo is simply leading the Conf in Scoring and is also ranked #13 in the Nation in Rebounding. But Araujo has help down low as well, with Meads and Bigelow who is a G/F and second on the team in scoring. Who is going to help Nelson out if he plays. If Nelson doesnt play, then who is going to help this Colorado St team out. This Colorado St team is ranking at or near the bottom in the Conf in these catergories, Scoring Off, Scoring Def, Scoring Margin(last in Conf), FT%, FG%, TO Margin(last in Conf), Assist to TO Margin(last in Conf), and 3 pointers made per a game with 4.9(last in Conf). BYU has to much at stake for them not to get this game. They are the superior team here today, and that road win at Wyoming should do alot for them in terms of confidence on the road. All I know is that with Araujo, I have all the confidence with BYU. Cougars dominance in the paint on both ends of the court leads to another road win for them.


SYRACUSE/ND OVER 148-The first game between the two saw them combine for 151pts. I see more today as Syracuse's Warrick should dominate the paint again leading to alot of higher percentage shots. Also Syracuse ranks #2 in Scoring Off in the Conf, and others as well will get their points, especially since ND is ranked #11th in the Conf in Scoring Def. Syracuse on the other side is ranked last in the Conf in Scoring Def which should give ND their points as well, but mainly from outside with Thomas who's been hot of late. To poor defensive teams who have scoring weapons on both sides points me to the OVER. (WINNER)Final Score ND 84-72.



***OK Gang, these are my plays so far. I am still looking at one or two more plays to add. So you can check back later if interested. We need to Kick some Ass today and these plays should do just that. Good Luck to All today, and Aloha Co-Captain.

.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 09:07 PM.]

 

[jwblue]

CC:

What is your take on ND/Syracuse. The moneyline for Syracuse is dropping like a rock at Pinny.

IS

 

[Kojak]

I am definitely looking at Delaware as both Kapusta and yourself are on them. I really like Oklahoma State over Oklahoma. Lucas going up against Lavender ,junior vs freshman, is a mismatch in OSU's favor. Texas Tech really didn't have a point guard to match Lavender's quickness. Also, big mismatch inside for OSU. I know all the statistics support Oklahoma based on the past but based on this year, OSU is the better team and even beat Iowa State recently on road by 21! Iowa State has beaten Missouri,Kansas, and Texas at home so that was a quality victory for OSU. Anyway, best of luck tonight and appreciate your hard work.

 

[thefawv]

Good luck Co-Captain!!! Looking for a great run this week!!! Keep up the good work! GL - FawvDog

 

[ThrillOfGambling]

Good luck

 

[pool]

You have the Oklahoma game capped pretty good. I went to OSU and I don't believe most people realize what a BIG RIVALRY this truely is. Oklahoma State is easily the best team but for some reason in this rivalry the "lesser team" seems to do very well especially at home. In football as well as basketball. It's a no bet for me. I'll just watch and pull for my Cowboys. I always enjoy reading your post. Love Delaware.

 

[thetexaskid]

cap, gutsy call on ok. my first instinct was ok st but after looking at the #'s and knowing the rivalry staying away (actually like okla 1st H

i love delaware and so does EVERYONE, scary

dont like to suggest games, so im not, but look at the ok/ok st over

good luck

 

[gracielou]

hey co-captain,

not bashing you at all, but you made me curious about the colonial so i took a look myself.

35-33 ats for home teams. it seemed alot of those covers for home were dogs, but i didn't really keep track of that.

delaware 5-1 home

nc wilmington 2-1-1 road dog; 3-5 overall

if wrong please correct.


watched nc play this year they have a very hard time scoring, and play pretty good defense. i think i just talked myself into a huge under.

i wish you luck on your plays

 

[Co-Captain]

Gracie,

The source I got the info from is stating that the home teams won 42-19 SU, not ATS.

Delaware has won 8 games this season at home.

Uncw as an underdog this year is 2-3 ATS. I did not specifically put out their road records as dogs. I have it listed at 2-3 ATS as underdogs this year.


These is what I got. Cant for certain say if it is 100% correct, but I am not going to check either, as I only list them as other reasons why I play them. I usually play my picks because of situational setups or advantages I see, the past stat and trends is something that I use just to suppoet my decision to play them and not the reason for why I make a play. Good Luck to you as well today. Aloha CC.

 

[Co-Captain]

Guys, thanks and good luck to you as well today. FVCKIN KICK SOME MAJOR ASS! Aloha CC.

 

[Co-Captain]

In Spades, I am very close to pulling the trigger with Syracuse, but still checking on some other info. Try checking back to see if I made it a play. The numbers are probably dropping due to ND winning against Uconn and SH. Plus, the Public is also looking at Syracuse poor home ATS record as a Fav. But, I feel that this poor ATS record was due to the books putting out numbers against Syracuse as they knew that the Public would be all over them at home, and also because they are the Defending National Champs. I am not a believer in teams who win big at home, as winning on the road is a different story and not easy to do. Syracuse already won at ND, and that tells me alot about Syracuse. Check back later if you want to, but I hope this helps you out some. Aloha CC.

 

[Allstar]

Co-Captain

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!

ALLSTAR

 

[jwblue]

CC:

Thanks for the help with 'Cuse. Taking the moneyline in a parlay.

IS

 

[jimmymo]

CC -- best of luck to you my friend.

 

[Co-Captain]

Allstar , same to you as well my friend. Keep kicking the Man's ass like you have been consistantly been doing. Aloha CC.


InSpades, your welcome. GL and Aloha CC.


jimmymo, hey thanks alot and best of luck to you as well. BTW, can you please send my writeups over to the other place for me today, I reall appreciate it. Also, here is my email address where you can send me the info on how to do this, which you requested the other day. Much Mahalo for the help my friend. Now lets kick some Ass today , Aloha CC. email : achievepcsd@yahoo.com

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 02:40 PM.]

 

[Kapusta]

CoCap-I got that same feeling again when we were both on Ohio this weekend, The Blue Hens cash my friend!!$$ Like the card also!

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION & COMPARISONS:

Ok Gang, it seems that I am the ONLY one playing on Oklahoma , let alone making it one of my Top plays of the day. WOW!

Well, along with my reasonings in my writeup up above, here is some other information which I used to back this play. And really, it is not based really on stats and trends, rankings or non-rankings, playing well to not playing well, player vs player, Sr vs Fr, Big Tall Guy vs Small Short Guy, or any other things that could seem to make a play for Oklahoma State the obvious choice. Nope, not here and not in this Game.

Today, you need to throw all that SHIT out the window. Today is a RIVALRY GAME. Plain and Simple. We all seen these kinds of games Gang, and almost always, the Home team has the edge, and gets the win SU. HOME COURT ADVANTAGE(HCA) IS HUGE, especially in the Big 12. Let me share some Upsets by the Home Teams with you, just from the Big 12.
-Iowa St defeats #11 Texas 78-77.
-Oklahoma defeats Iowa St 75-48.
-Kansas St defeats Neb 78-61.
-Kansas St defeats Iowa St 90-59.
-Baylor defeats Iowa St 63-59.
-Neb defeats #12 Kansas 74-55.
-Missouri defeats Neb 72-51.
-TT defeats OSU 83-62.
-Colorado defeats Iowa St 88-70.
-Colorado defeats Missouri 83-70.
-TT should of defeated Texas, but lost by 1pt on last sec 3pt shot.
-Oklahoma defeats #19 TT 63-48.

Ok Gang, thats a good list of defeats(upsets) at the hands of the Home teams. This goes to show how HOME COURT ADVANTAGE IS HUGE in the Big 12. Now I dont feel that Oklahoma's Home court is the toughest in the Big 12, but wins by other Conf teams here are very scarces. In fact, Oklahoma has won 48 out of 50 games on this court. WoW very impressive!

-Yesterday, #1 Duke gets upset at NCSt, MAC Conf leader W Mich get upset at Marshall. These are just other examples of how tough it is to win on the road no matter who you are.


Now, the second thing beside HCA, and one thing which just adds to its strength, is that this game is a HUGE RIVALRY GAME. In these games like I mentioned, the Home team has a HUGE advantage. It seems to doesnt really matter what your stats are or what your record is. But it does give an advantage in added motivation to the Home team in this game, when the visiting Rival is on Top or higher in the Conf, ranked Nationally , or already defeated the home team this year. Well Gang, Oklahoma St falls into all those categories. Not a good sign at all for the Cowboys, but a Fvckin good sign for us Sooner backers. Them two things Gang are Huge in games like this, and we have them on our side and that all you need to remember in these games.

Additional Notes:

Oklahoma St may have a good guard combo, with Lucus and Allen, but Oklahoma wins games by playing with multiple guards. More specifically, 4 guards either play at one time or split time with each other. Also, these 4 guards in Lavendor,Detrick, Alexander, and Mckenzie, are the 4 top scorers on the team. This to me is advantage for Oklahoma as they always have fresh guards to play, which helps with their defensive play, especially against teams that like to run, like Oklahoma St likes to do. This also helps to cause problems for teams who uses mainly two guards the whole game. Its hard enough to get a hold of who you are playing against for the game, let alone having to come up against 4 different guys playing the same position against you. Lastly, this rotating guard play by Oklahoma where all 4 are the teams top scorers, leave Oklahoma with more options in the event that someone is having an off night. For example, in Oklahoma's upset over TT , Senior G Detrick who is second in the team in scoring, had 0 pts, but G Alexander stepped in and scored 11pt, and G Mckenzie scored 15pts. So Gang, this one is not so easy as it may seem in backing Oklahoma St today. I see it as a great opportunity for the Sooners to pull an upset, and based on this LOW number the books put out, they have the same feelings. Thinks about it, Why such a low number placed on the #10 ranked team in the nation. Watch out and dont get caught. Go Sooners.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 06:32 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

Reminder:


Dont forget that teams with the HCA and the better defense is a deadly combination. Remember what happened when Murray St with the #1 Offense played AP with the #1 Def along with HCA. AP won.

Remember what happened to #12 Kansas, who went up against the #1 Def in Neb, who also had HCA on their side. Neb killed Kansas.

Now, Oklahoma ST has the #2 Off and face Oklahoma and their #2 Def in the Conf, along with HCA on their side. Whats going to happen. Well, this other information might help point to Oklahoma. Oklahoma is #4 in the Conf in 3 pointer made per a game with 6. Whereas, Ok St is #11 (2nd to last in Conf) in 3 pointers made per a game with ONLY 4. This is another advantage for Oklahoma today. If you add these all up, I feel the best side to play is Oklahoma . Go Sooners.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 16, 2004 at 05:28 PM.]