Aloha Gang! Well, I hope you All are doing well and good spirits today. I know I am a bit of in an excited mood today, thanks in part to yesterdays Positive results we had with a
6W-3L= +15 Unit Day. It was a goal for me to end Monday on a up note, as today I had marked as a Big Play Day. So with our profit from yesterday, we are simply going to shoot them and some on these solid plays, which all have very solid situational advantages and setups for us to take advantage of today. Today I have another GOM play, and 1 6 Unit Top Play that just missed out on making the GOM section. Still though, I think we got some quality plays for today. So I will stop talking, so we can get right to it. Lets Rock-N-Roll Baby!!!!!
**7 Unit Big Play for Respect Game of the Month on:
PROVIDENCE -2 (buy .5pt)-One main reason why I like Prov, is because they are a team playing with 5 returning starters and also a deep bench than most teams. I said it before, that having this kind of familiarity amonst players is a very valuable commodity to have. Prov is a solid 11-2 at home this year, and Pitt is a solid 7-2 on the road. Both also play very excellent Def. Pitt ranks #1 in the Conf in Scoring Def, holding opponents to just 60.2 ppg and just 39.7% from the field on the road. Prov is ranked #2 in Scoring Def in the Conf, holding opponents to just 61.8 ppg and 40.8% from the field at home.
Ok, now that we established that they both play solid Def, here is where I see some of the advantages that lie with Prov. To start, Prov not only plays solid Def, but they also play solid Offense as well. Pitt, on the other hand, is simply struggle Offensively. If we look back at their last 5 games to start, you will see a definate difference in both Offense's productions. Pitt, Offensive scoring average in FG% and average pts scored per a game, over this span has fallen to its lowest on the year to just 44.4% and 64.6 ppg. Prov though during this span has increased its scoring production in ppg and FG% to its highest, at 81.4 ppg and 51.5% from the field. What makes this even more impressive, is that 4 of the 5 games were played on the road. WOW! Here are some keys information I found that provided me more confidence with this selection on Prov.
Now, we all know that Pitt got upset on their home court by Syracuse the other day, but in my opinion, Pitts decline and Offensive problems didnt start in that game. This Offensive slump as it was shown based on the last 5 games played, really showed in the GT game where Pitt had to struggle back to get a win after being down by 13pts. One of the main reasons for this Offensive slump, is due to Pitt's Sr G Julian Page's who continues to struggle to score. This year, he has been held to below double figures in 6 of 11 games, and is currently shooting ONLY 39.9% for the year. This is down from 48.8% which he was shooting at last season. Because of this continuous slump he is in, alot of the Offense for Pitt is being placed on the shoulders of Pitts other leading scorer G Krauser. In the Syracuse game, the Cuse was able to hold Krauser to just 9pts before he ended up fouling out late in the game. This is not good news for a team like Pitt who wins games with their G play from these two.
Syracuse runs the 2-3 zone defense which was a main reason for their ability to effectively shut down the outside scoring threats of Pitts guards. In fact, in the two games vs Syracuse and their 2-3 zone defense, Pitt's leading scorers in G Krauser and Page, were both held to under DD's scoring. Also remember, that Pitt beat this Syracuse team on the road by 21pts earlier in the year. But in this second game Syracuse's 2-3 zone defense, was again not only successful in shutting down Pitt's guards, but this defensive scheme was also able to hold Pitts entire team to just 36% shooting from the field, and ONLY 40pts scoring, which is Pitts lowest point total in 22 years. Ok, so what does this have to do with Providence you may be asking. Well, Providence like Syracuse also runs the 2-3 zone defense, but they do it alot more effectively as their #2 ranking in scoring Def shows. Also, Prov's Head Coach Tim Welsh is a diciple of Syracuse's Coach Boeheim. I think it is safe to assume that he knows what Coach Boeheim did to effectively shut down Pitts Offense almost completely. I think this give Prov a HUGE advantage today.
Still though, here are more advantages. Besides ranking 2nd in the Conf behind Pitt in Scoring Def, Prov also is 3rd in Scoring Off and 2nd in 3pt FG%, compared to Pitt who ranks near mid bottom in Scoring Off and 11th in 3pt FG% in the Conf. Another Big advantage for Prov. Yet another advantage Prov will have over Pitt, is from the line, where Prov is 4th in the Conf in FT% and Pitt ranks at 11th in this category. If this game is close, Prov should have the edge at the line which could decide this game.
Next, I cannot leave out the fact that Providence will have the edge in it play in the paint with F/C Ryan Gomes, who is probably the best player in the Big East as he is 3rd in scoring and 2nd in rebounding in the Conf. His ability down low , and Prov's ability to drain it from downtown gives them a very potent balanced attack, something Pitt cannot match.
Here are some final things favoring Prov in way of trends and motivation. First, Providence is 6-1 ATS in the series vs Pitt since 1997, and they are also 2-1 SU and ATS at home vs Pitt, since 1997. Next, this game is a Huge game for Prov, as a win today would secure them a Conf Title due to a tie breaker over Uconn. Pitt also this year is just 1-2 ATS when playing one day or less rest. Finally, a HUGE motivation for Prov will be their quest for the RESPECT that feel they deserve, which have unfairly gone to only Uconn and Pitt all season. Today, with this game on National TV and with their fans in an excited frenzy, you can expect HCA to be HUMONGUS in this one, and this will be another main reason for Prov getting this very important win and finally getting the RESPECT that they deserve. Friars win the Big East tonight, and establish themselves as a Final Four contender!
(LOSE SU)
**6 Unit Big Revenge Play on:
MICHIGAN ST -2 (buy .5pt)-Wisc just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS on the road, but just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in Conf road games. On the road, they are scoring ONLY 59.9 ppg and 40% from the field, while opponents average 61.2 ppg and shoot 44.8% from the field. MST is 12-3 at home, and 7-0 in Conf Home games, averaging 73.3 ppg and 48.7% shooting from the field, while their opponents average just 64.9 ppg and 44% from the field.
In this one, you basically have a potent Offense of Mich St vs a very stingy Defense of Wisconsin. Today I side with the potent Offensive play of the highly motivated Spartan team, who is playing with alot of motivational advantages on their side today. One of them, is for SWEET REVENGE, as they were beaten by this Wisc squad by 13pts back on 1-10.
Another situational advantage for Mich St is that this will be their final Home game on Senior Night. We all know how important and strongly teams feel about sending their Seniors out with a win in their last ever home game. But this one also is for All the marbles as well, as Mich St currently sits a top the Conf, and a win will secure at least a share of the Big 10 Title. A title that they want to get very badly, in part due to that wicked beginning schedule they faced early in the season, which left everyone writing them off before any of the Big 10 Conf games were played.
Some other factors siding with Mich St today, is that Wisc is currently 0-1 ATS, and 2-5 ATS the last 3 seasons as a road Underdog of 3pts or less or pick. Wisc is also 0-6 ATS in road games when playing a team with a winning record. Mich St is 9-2 ATS in home games Revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Mich St also holds a decided advantage over Wisc from the FT line as they shoot 77% from the line, while Wisc ONLY shoots 67%. Again if this game comes down to the wire, you have to like your chances with Mich St with this Big edge at the charity line.
Lastly, and I wont forget this fact. But isnt it simply incredible how Mich ST's Coach Izzo always knows and has his team ready, during time of the season, for their run to the NCAA Tourney. You can almost count of this happening. Today, expect HCA to also be a HUGE factor in getting this important Win for the Spartans. If you think Michigan's fans was wild and energetic when they played this Wisc team, stick around, cause you aint seen nothing yet. Expect the Spartan faithful to be three times as pumped up for this one. The Spartan Roll in this game today, and Revenge will be Sweet.
BTW, the home team laying pts to the ranked visitor angle is also in play in this game.
(LOSE SU)
**4 Unit Plays on:
MOREHEAD ST -6-JVSt was just 2-11 overall on the road this year, and 1-7 in road Conf games. The have also lost their last 5 consecutive road games, where they averaged 70 ppg, but allowed opponents to average 79.1 ppg and shoot 50.4% from the field. MH ST was a solid 11-2 overall in all home games this year, and 6-2 in home Conf games. At home they averaged 76.7 ppg and shot 48.5% from the field, while they held their opponents to just 67.1 ppg and 42% from the field. Overall stat wise on the year MH ST is a better % shooting team than JV ST from the FT line, Field, and from 3pt land.
MH ST is 2-0 SU and ATS vs JV ST the last 3 seasons. This year, they have already beat them by 8pts in both games played.
JVST hasnt played on the road since 2-14 and this may have a big affect on them. Whereas MH ST, will have the advantage of playing this Conf Tourney game on their home court , which thsy haven't played since 2-14. Because of this long absence in front of their fans and the fact that this is for a possible NCAA bid, expect their home fans to very pumped up for this one, eventhough it is against a team they already beat twice this year. Also expect MH ST to continue its roll and momentum they ended their season with to continue, lead by their Stud player and the Conf's leading scorer Ricky Minard. He will probably win the Conf Player of the Year award, and today he will show JV ST exactly why he should win it.
(WINNER-by 14pts)
SYRACUSE -1.5-This one is simple, Syracuse is riding a big momentum which was not simply created by their last win over Pitt, as they have been on a roll winning 5 or their last 6 games. Syracuse also won its last 3 games played on the road. WV, on the other hand, is headed in the opposite direction fast, as they are on a 3 game losing streak and sliding downwards fast. Syracuse on the year is also solid on the road posting a 6-3 SU record, while averaging 70.1 ppg and 46% from the field. WV is 10-3 overall at home, and they do have some quality upsets at home, but they were awhile back and things in my opinion has turned for the worst really fast for them. Syracuse has also gone 3-0 ATS as road Fav this year laying 3pts or less or pick, and with this one under a basket, I simply cannot ignore this along with the other current situations facing these two.
The defending National Champs and Coach Boeheim have created to much momentum, and this ride their are on will be to much for this slumping WV squad to stop. Momentum along with motivation during this time of year, usually is enough to propell teams over their lesser opponent, who know they have nothing to play for.
(WINNER-by 13pts)
E KENTUCKY -4 (buy .5pt)-Samford is just 3-12 overall on the road this year, and currently have lost their last 5 consecutive games away from home. In these games on the road, they are ONLY scoring 57.1 ppg, while their opponents score 66.3 ppg and shoot 46% from the field. E Kent went a solid 10-3 at home this year, and averaged 76.4 ppg and 48.4% shooting from the field in their house, while they held opps to just 63.8 ppg and 41.4% from the field.
Samford is the OVC Conf's worst scoring Offensive team, but they are ranked 2nd in Scoring Defense. E Kent's play have resulted in them being ranked in the middle of the Conf in both of these catergories, but they have acquired a decided advantage over many teams in Conf in rebounding, as they rank 3rd in this catergory.
Samford struggles on score on offense, is evident in their last 4 games where they have failed to score over 55pts and have averaged almost 16 turnovers per a game. 4 of the 5 starters for Samford average at least 10 ppg, but the highest scorer off the bench ONLY averages 5.3 ppg. This lack of scoring support from the reserves on the bench, is a reason why Samford starting 5 cannot get into foul trouble. If this happens, their done.
This year, E Kent has already beat this Samford team by 9pts and then in a romp at home by 20pts. E Kent as well, will benefit in this Conf Tourney game which is played on their home court. And they also will benefit from the fact that this will be their first game playing in front of their fans since 2-14. So expect the fans to provide alot of energy for them to get this win in another possible DD rout. Samfords Offensive struggles and their lack of scoring support from its bench leave me no other way to go in this one. Good Defensive play can give your Offense opportunities, but if your Offense cant take full advantage of them, your dead and done. Lay the points with E Kent to get its third win over Samford this year.
(WINNER-by 20pts)
**Ok Gang, that is it for today. I feel its a very solid card which we can profit from and hurt the Man with. Good Luck today to All and lets have some Fun. Mahalos for all the support and encouragement from all who posted in this thread today. I am greatly appreciative and value all your sentiments. Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 02, 2004 at 09:40 PM.]
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