Top QB prospects for 2015
Winston, Mariota, Petty among those who could rise to top of draft boards
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
Soon after the 2014 NFL draft concluded, I released my "too-early" Big Board for the 2015 NFL draft, a ranking that includes players who will be underclassmen during the 2014 college football season. It goes without saying that these rankings are preliminary, as I have hundreds of hours of evaluation ahead for the 2015 class.
A couple of important notes about the rankings below:
• This isn't a straight Top 10 QB list because I've split them into seniors and underclassmen. I think it's important to rank seniors alone since they are the only players I can guarantee will be a part of the 2015 NFL draft process.
• In some instances I've included more than 10 players; if two or three guys are extremely close on my board, I simply tacked on the names.
With those parameters in mind, here's an early look at the top QB prospects in the 2015 draft class.
[h=3]Top 5 senior quarterbacks[/h]
1. Bryce Petty, Baylor Bears: He put up exceptional totals last season and should be in line for a big senior year with plenty of offensive talent still on hand around him. Petty piled 4,200-plus passing yards and had a near-perfect 32-3 TD-INT ratio last season. The Baylor offense is always going to create numbers as long as coach Art Briles is around, but Petty has skills that go beyond a good offense.
2. Sean Mannion, Oregon State Beavers: The tall QB had a breakthrough season in 2013, with 37 TD throws and 4,662 passing yards, but now he must attack defenses without the services of WR Brandin Cooks, who was taken by the Saints in Round 1 of the 2014 draft. Mannion is accurate, but he doesn't generate the velocity on his passes you'd expect for someone his size. That's the big question for me going into 2014.
3. Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes: A gifted runner, Miller improved his mechanics and footwork going into the 2013 season, but it's clear he's still as much an athlete as he is a QB in the way that he doesn't yet consistently anticipate people coming open but instead too often relies on his ability to extend plays seemingly as long as he wants. Miller's passing totals have improved, but his ability to anticipate in the passing game will define whether he's considered a QB worth taking in the top half of the draft. If he goes later, the athletic credentials could have some believing he could play another position.
4. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State Sun Devils: He was arguably better as a sophomore, but Kelly certainly wasn't bad in 2013. While he lacks above-average arm strength and relies a great deal on underneath and intermediate accuracy, Kelly is athletic and tough, and he runs well and has a quick release. He anticipates well and is willing to take hits to get the ball out to the best option.
5. Hutson Mason, Georgia Bulldogs: He filled in admirably for Aaron Murray at the end of last season and will get his shot to start in 2014 with Murray now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mason should be helped by a very good running game this season.
[h=3]Top 5 underclassmen quarterbacks[/h]
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles: I'll repeat my notes from the Big Board, which hold up a few weeks later. In regards to his 2014 season: "He'll anticipate better and move with better precision in the pocket, and he'll do so while again being surrounded by a ton of talent. The question is whether he'll mature and find a way to move past what I personally consider major character concerns. He's a great football prospect, but he has a great deal of work to do to prove he's a player worthy of leading an NFL franchise. Maybe 2014 shouldn't be his final year in Tallahassee."
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks: Through two seasons as a starter, Mariota has 61 TD throws and just 10 INTs. And even while I'd never consider him a run-first QB, when he does run he's dangerous, as evidenced by his near 1,500 yards and his 7.3 yards per carry average. Mariota could have been a top-10 pick in the 2014 draft, but a return to school will benefit him. He has all the athletic credentials and can be very accurate for stretches, but he needs to anticipate a little better and gain a little strength. He's well on his way to challenging to be the top pick in 2015.
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA Bruins: Since he burst on the scene in 2012, Hundley has consistently impressed with his ability to drive the ball down the field with ease. He might have the best arm in this draft class, and I think he's a smart pocket mover with a sense of when to climb to evade pressure. He just needs to be better with ball placement, where he can be pretty inconsistent. Overall, he's a very good prospect.
4. Connor Cook, Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans' offense isn't exactly built to show off a QB's ability, but Cook did manage to put up some pretty decent totals last year even as the MSU receivers struggled to consistently hang on to the ball. Cook has good size at 6-4 and can really run. He has a strong arm and will continue to get better. A sleeper to be a future first-rounder.
5A. Kevin Hogan, Stanford Cardinal: He should take a step forward this season with another good O-line and several outstanding weapons in the passing game, but Hogan has a long windup on his release and needs to clean up some things mechanically. He's a very good athlete and should continue to improve.
5B. Jacob Coker, Alabama Crimson Tide: He nearly beat out Winston to start at Florida State, and is the favorite to be the starter for Nick Saban's team in 2014. Coker moves well, has a big arm and, if he starts, will have big-time weapons in wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end O.J. Howard.
Winston, Mariota, Petty among those who could rise to top of draft boards
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
Soon after the 2014 NFL draft concluded, I released my "too-early" Big Board for the 2015 NFL draft, a ranking that includes players who will be underclassmen during the 2014 college football season. It goes without saying that these rankings are preliminary, as I have hundreds of hours of evaluation ahead for the 2015 class.
A couple of important notes about the rankings below:
• This isn't a straight Top 10 QB list because I've split them into seniors and underclassmen. I think it's important to rank seniors alone since they are the only players I can guarantee will be a part of the 2015 NFL draft process.
• In some instances I've included more than 10 players; if two or three guys are extremely close on my board, I simply tacked on the names.
With those parameters in mind, here's an early look at the top QB prospects in the 2015 draft class.
[h=3]Top 5 senior quarterbacks[/h]
1. Bryce Petty, Baylor Bears: He put up exceptional totals last season and should be in line for a big senior year with plenty of offensive talent still on hand around him. Petty piled 4,200-plus passing yards and had a near-perfect 32-3 TD-INT ratio last season. The Baylor offense is always going to create numbers as long as coach Art Briles is around, but Petty has skills that go beyond a good offense.
2. Sean Mannion, Oregon State Beavers: The tall QB had a breakthrough season in 2013, with 37 TD throws and 4,662 passing yards, but now he must attack defenses without the services of WR Brandin Cooks, who was taken by the Saints in Round 1 of the 2014 draft. Mannion is accurate, but he doesn't generate the velocity on his passes you'd expect for someone his size. That's the big question for me going into 2014.
3. Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes: A gifted runner, Miller improved his mechanics and footwork going into the 2013 season, but it's clear he's still as much an athlete as he is a QB in the way that he doesn't yet consistently anticipate people coming open but instead too often relies on his ability to extend plays seemingly as long as he wants. Miller's passing totals have improved, but his ability to anticipate in the passing game will define whether he's considered a QB worth taking in the top half of the draft. If he goes later, the athletic credentials could have some believing he could play another position.
4. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State Sun Devils: He was arguably better as a sophomore, but Kelly certainly wasn't bad in 2013. While he lacks above-average arm strength and relies a great deal on underneath and intermediate accuracy, Kelly is athletic and tough, and he runs well and has a quick release. He anticipates well and is willing to take hits to get the ball out to the best option.
5. Hutson Mason, Georgia Bulldogs: He filled in admirably for Aaron Murray at the end of last season and will get his shot to start in 2014 with Murray now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mason should be helped by a very good running game this season.
[h=3]Top 5 underclassmen quarterbacks[/h]
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles: I'll repeat my notes from the Big Board, which hold up a few weeks later. In regards to his 2014 season: "He'll anticipate better and move with better precision in the pocket, and he'll do so while again being surrounded by a ton of talent. The question is whether he'll mature and find a way to move past what I personally consider major character concerns. He's a great football prospect, but he has a great deal of work to do to prove he's a player worthy of leading an NFL franchise. Maybe 2014 shouldn't be his final year in Tallahassee."
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks: Through two seasons as a starter, Mariota has 61 TD throws and just 10 INTs. And even while I'd never consider him a run-first QB, when he does run he's dangerous, as evidenced by his near 1,500 yards and his 7.3 yards per carry average. Mariota could have been a top-10 pick in the 2014 draft, but a return to school will benefit him. He has all the athletic credentials and can be very accurate for stretches, but he needs to anticipate a little better and gain a little strength. He's well on his way to challenging to be the top pick in 2015.
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA Bruins: Since he burst on the scene in 2012, Hundley has consistently impressed with his ability to drive the ball down the field with ease. He might have the best arm in this draft class, and I think he's a smart pocket mover with a sense of when to climb to evade pressure. He just needs to be better with ball placement, where he can be pretty inconsistent. Overall, he's a very good prospect.
4. Connor Cook, Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans' offense isn't exactly built to show off a QB's ability, but Cook did manage to put up some pretty decent totals last year even as the MSU receivers struggled to consistently hang on to the ball. Cook has good size at 6-4 and can really run. He has a strong arm and will continue to get better. A sleeper to be a future first-rounder.
5A. Kevin Hogan, Stanford Cardinal: He should take a step forward this season with another good O-line and several outstanding weapons in the passing game, but Hogan has a long windup on his release and needs to clean up some things mechanically. He's a very good athlete and should continue to improve.
5B. Jacob Coker, Alabama Crimson Tide: He nearly beat out Winston to start at Florida State, and is the favorite to be the starter for Nick Saban's team in 2014. Coker moves well, has a big arm and, if he starts, will have big-time weapons in wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end O.J. Howard.
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