Top early 2018 college football national title bets
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It hasn't been a month since the Alabama Crimson Tide won the College Football Playoff, but it's never too early to look ahead to next season. Phil Steele and Chris Fallica, our college football Vegas experts, are already looking ahead and picking their best early value bets -- teams with favorable odds at this point in the year and decent chances to deliver -- to bring home the national title next January.
Sure, Alabama is the favorite to defend its title, but why take Bama so early? Rather, now is the time to capitalize on value.
Here's a look at some of the best early value bets for the 2018 national champion.
Odds are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Feb. 20.
Clemson Tigers (5-1)
Steele: Normally I shy away from teams that are less than 10-1 to win it all, but by the time the season kicks off, the Tigers could be co-favorites for the title. I expected three or even all four of their stud defensive lineman to leave early for the NFL. Amazingly, all four will instead return to the best defensive line in college football. Second-team All-American offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt also returns. The rich get richer under center as well. Returning starter Kelly Bryant will have to fend off both this year's and last year's top-rated quarterback recruits in Trevor Lawrence and Hunter Johnson, respectively.
Clemson finished the regular season No. 1 in the polls and has seven returning starters on offense and eight on defense. The toughest road tests come at Texas A&M and Florida State, but the Tigers will be favored in both games.
Washington Huskies (20-1)
Steele: The Huskies went 10-2 during the regular season, with six- and eight-point road losses. Then they lost to a powerful Penn State team by seven points in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington returns one of the most veteran teams in the country, with 17 starters back. The offense returns Jake Browning at quarterback, Myles Gaskin at running back, five of the top seven receivers and four starting offensive linemen. Although the Huskies lose star defensive tackle Vita Vea, they have nine starters back on defense, including the entire secondary. Washington was No. 18 in my pass defense rankings last season.
UW will play Auburn at a neutral site early but gets Stanford at home. The Huskies have to travel to Utah, Oregon and UCLA, but the latter two have new head coaches. I think the Huskies are a stronger team in 2018 and have a decent path to the playoffs.
Fallica: Washington certainly doesn't have many, if any, marquee wins the past couple seasons, especially nonconference. It will get a chance to change a lot of perceptions in the season opener against Auburn in Atlanta. Win that game, and UW will be ranked highly and will offer the Pac-12 its best shot of getting to the CFP. Even with a loss, Washington could run the slate in the Pac-12 and make a case, with that loss being a nonconference game against an SEC team in SEC country.
Among the returners are Trey Adams, Browning, Gaskin, Greg Gaines and Taylor Rapp. If the Huskies beat Auburn, those 20-1 odds are likely to become a much shorter number.
Miami Hurricanes (40-1)
Fallica: I'm sure the way Miami finished last season gives pause to many, but the Canes were playing without their three best offensive weapons (running back Mark Walton, tight end Christopher Herndon and wide receiver Ahmmon Richards). As a result, quarterback Malik Rosier's play suffered greatly. There's also no guarantee that Rosier will be the starter in 2018, as redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry improved greatly over the course of the season and Jarren Williams will enroll early.
Although the Canes will have a bunch of new faces in key roles on offense, the defense remains mostly intact and will be the strength of the team. Miami has a coin-flip opener versus LSU; a win would be a huge résumé booster, while a loss wouldn't be the end-all. The Canes' schedule spaces out nicely, with an FSU game at home on Oct. 6 and a road game at Virginia Tech on Nov. 17, a game that could decide the Coastal Division. The Hurricanes got a taste of success last season and could be better equipped to handle it -- and achieve more -- this season.
Texas Longhorns (30-1)
Fallica: Sure, there are losses to overcome, including Connor Williams and a bunch of impact players on defense, but the offense was extremely young last season and should now be more acclimated to Tom Herman's scheme. The opener at Maryland won't be a gimme by any means, and the four-game stretch of USC, TCU at Kansas State and Oklahoma is tough. But remember, the Longhorns need only to finish second in the conference to ensure a spot in the Big 12 title game. Texas still might be a year away, but the Longhorns nearly beat Oklahoma last season and had three other losses by four or fewer points (USC, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech). They are close, and at 30-1, I'd be interested.
Michigan State Spartans (60-1)
Steele: What a difference a year makes. Last year, the Spartans were coming off a shocking 3-9 season, had just eight returning starters, ranked No. 129 on my preseason experience chart and were a 100-1 shot to win it all. This year? They are coming off a 10-3 season, and their 19 returning starters are the most on any team that finished with a winning record last season. Quarterback Brian Lewerke, running back L.J. Scott, all of their top receivers and four starting offensive linemen are back. The defense allowed just 298 yards per game and has nine starters back.
The Spartans play Ohio State and Michigan at home, with their toughest road test at Penn State. Michigan State could be favored in 11 of its 12 games, and a one-loss Big Ten champ won't miss the playoff. Sparty is well worth a look at 60-1, especially with Ohio State priced at 8-1.
Fallica: Early in the 2017 season, the Spartans were a young team that found ways to win games on defense. By the end of the season, Lewerke and the offense had grown up and were a huge part of the team's success, capping the campaign with a dominant win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. Mark Dantonio had some staff changes to deal with, but he has filled those spots with familiar faces, so I'm not too worried.
The schedule is about as good as MSU could hope. Who knows what to expect from Arizona State in Tempe on Sept. 8, and the Spartans host Michigan and Ohio State (though the Michigan game comes a week after the Spartans visit Penn State). A tricky crossover game against Purdue is also in East Lansing.
The Big Ten was shut out of the CFP in 2017, and it's unlikely that the conference will be shut out again in 2018. Most are thinking Ohio State, Penn State or Wisconsin will be the team that gets there, but at 60-1, I think Michigan State is worth a wager.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (50-1)
Steele: Notre Dame was coming off a 4-8 season last year but lost only to Georgia by one and was in the mix for the playoff until late-season road losses to Miami and Stanford. Although the Irish did lose two All-American offensive linemen, as well as their top rusher and receiver, they bring back quarterback Brandon Wimbush, three starting O-linemen and 10 starters off the defense, plus their kicker and punter.
The Irish do have road trips to Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC as well as home games against Michigan, Stanford and Florida State, but at the most, they would be small 'dogs in just one or two of those. There is value, with the number up at 50-1.
Arizona Wildcats (100-1)
Steele: I usually do not pick teams with weak defenses or new head coaches as national title contenders, but I will make an exception here because this Wildcats defense has nine starters back, including eight of the top nine tacklers, and should be much improved. Kevin Sumlin steps into a solid situation, and his teams usually get off to solid starts, which will have his players buying in at a quicker pace. Khalil Tate is an exciting quarterback, and there are seven offensive starters back.
To win the title, a team has to make the playoff. Teams have better chances of making the playoff if they win their conferences, and the Pac-12 South is wide open this season. The Wildcats have as good a chance as any team of being in the Pac-12 title game. The odds are 100-1, so this is a long shot, but it is certainly worth a look.
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
It hasn't been a month since the Alabama Crimson Tide won the College Football Playoff, but it's never too early to look ahead to next season. Phil Steele and Chris Fallica, our college football Vegas experts, are already looking ahead and picking their best early value bets -- teams with favorable odds at this point in the year and decent chances to deliver -- to bring home the national title next January.
Sure, Alabama is the favorite to defend its title, but why take Bama so early? Rather, now is the time to capitalize on value.
Here's a look at some of the best early value bets for the 2018 national champion.
Odds are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Feb. 20.
Clemson Tigers (5-1)
Steele: Normally I shy away from teams that are less than 10-1 to win it all, but by the time the season kicks off, the Tigers could be co-favorites for the title. I expected three or even all four of their stud defensive lineman to leave early for the NFL. Amazingly, all four will instead return to the best defensive line in college football. Second-team All-American offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt also returns. The rich get richer under center as well. Returning starter Kelly Bryant will have to fend off both this year's and last year's top-rated quarterback recruits in Trevor Lawrence and Hunter Johnson, respectively.
Clemson finished the regular season No. 1 in the polls and has seven returning starters on offense and eight on defense. The toughest road tests come at Texas A&M and Florida State, but the Tigers will be favored in both games.
Washington Huskies (20-1)
Steele: The Huskies went 10-2 during the regular season, with six- and eight-point road losses. Then they lost to a powerful Penn State team by seven points in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington returns one of the most veteran teams in the country, with 17 starters back. The offense returns Jake Browning at quarterback, Myles Gaskin at running back, five of the top seven receivers and four starting offensive linemen. Although the Huskies lose star defensive tackle Vita Vea, they have nine starters back on defense, including the entire secondary. Washington was No. 18 in my pass defense rankings last season.
UW will play Auburn at a neutral site early but gets Stanford at home. The Huskies have to travel to Utah, Oregon and UCLA, but the latter two have new head coaches. I think the Huskies are a stronger team in 2018 and have a decent path to the playoffs.
Fallica: Washington certainly doesn't have many, if any, marquee wins the past couple seasons, especially nonconference. It will get a chance to change a lot of perceptions in the season opener against Auburn in Atlanta. Win that game, and UW will be ranked highly and will offer the Pac-12 its best shot of getting to the CFP. Even with a loss, Washington could run the slate in the Pac-12 and make a case, with that loss being a nonconference game against an SEC team in SEC country.
Among the returners are Trey Adams, Browning, Gaskin, Greg Gaines and Taylor Rapp. If the Huskies beat Auburn, those 20-1 odds are likely to become a much shorter number.
Miami Hurricanes (40-1)
Fallica: I'm sure the way Miami finished last season gives pause to many, but the Canes were playing without their three best offensive weapons (running back Mark Walton, tight end Christopher Herndon and wide receiver Ahmmon Richards). As a result, quarterback Malik Rosier's play suffered greatly. There's also no guarantee that Rosier will be the starter in 2018, as redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry improved greatly over the course of the season and Jarren Williams will enroll early.
Although the Canes will have a bunch of new faces in key roles on offense, the defense remains mostly intact and will be the strength of the team. Miami has a coin-flip opener versus LSU; a win would be a huge résumé booster, while a loss wouldn't be the end-all. The Canes' schedule spaces out nicely, with an FSU game at home on Oct. 6 and a road game at Virginia Tech on Nov. 17, a game that could decide the Coastal Division. The Hurricanes got a taste of success last season and could be better equipped to handle it -- and achieve more -- this season.
Texas Longhorns (30-1)
Fallica: Sure, there are losses to overcome, including Connor Williams and a bunch of impact players on defense, but the offense was extremely young last season and should now be more acclimated to Tom Herman's scheme. The opener at Maryland won't be a gimme by any means, and the four-game stretch of USC, TCU at Kansas State and Oklahoma is tough. But remember, the Longhorns need only to finish second in the conference to ensure a spot in the Big 12 title game. Texas still might be a year away, but the Longhorns nearly beat Oklahoma last season and had three other losses by four or fewer points (USC, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech). They are close, and at 30-1, I'd be interested.
Michigan State Spartans (60-1)
Steele: What a difference a year makes. Last year, the Spartans were coming off a shocking 3-9 season, had just eight returning starters, ranked No. 129 on my preseason experience chart and were a 100-1 shot to win it all. This year? They are coming off a 10-3 season, and their 19 returning starters are the most on any team that finished with a winning record last season. Quarterback Brian Lewerke, running back L.J. Scott, all of their top receivers and four starting offensive linemen are back. The defense allowed just 298 yards per game and has nine starters back.
The Spartans play Ohio State and Michigan at home, with their toughest road test at Penn State. Michigan State could be favored in 11 of its 12 games, and a one-loss Big Ten champ won't miss the playoff. Sparty is well worth a look at 60-1, especially with Ohio State priced at 8-1.
Fallica: Early in the 2017 season, the Spartans were a young team that found ways to win games on defense. By the end of the season, Lewerke and the offense had grown up and were a huge part of the team's success, capping the campaign with a dominant win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. Mark Dantonio had some staff changes to deal with, but he has filled those spots with familiar faces, so I'm not too worried.
The schedule is about as good as MSU could hope. Who knows what to expect from Arizona State in Tempe on Sept. 8, and the Spartans host Michigan and Ohio State (though the Michigan game comes a week after the Spartans visit Penn State). A tricky crossover game against Purdue is also in East Lansing.
The Big Ten was shut out of the CFP in 2017, and it's unlikely that the conference will be shut out again in 2018. Most are thinking Ohio State, Penn State or Wisconsin will be the team that gets there, but at 60-1, I think Michigan State is worth a wager.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (50-1)
Steele: Notre Dame was coming off a 4-8 season last year but lost only to Georgia by one and was in the mix for the playoff until late-season road losses to Miami and Stanford. Although the Irish did lose two All-American offensive linemen, as well as their top rusher and receiver, they bring back quarterback Brandon Wimbush, three starting O-linemen and 10 starters off the defense, plus their kicker and punter.
The Irish do have road trips to Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC as well as home games against Michigan, Stanford and Florida State, but at the most, they would be small 'dogs in just one or two of those. There is value, with the number up at 50-1.
Arizona Wildcats (100-1)
Steele: I usually do not pick teams with weak defenses or new head coaches as national title contenders, but I will make an exception here because this Wildcats defense has nine starters back, including eight of the top nine tacklers, and should be much improved. Kevin Sumlin steps into a solid situation, and his teams usually get off to solid starts, which will have his players buying in at a quicker pace. Khalil Tate is an exciting quarterback, and there are seven offensive starters back.
To win the title, a team has to make the playoff. Teams have better chances of making the playoff if they win their conferences, and the Pac-12 South is wide open this season. The Wildcats have as good a chance as any team of being in the Pac-12 title game. The odds are 100-1, so this is a long shot, but it is certainly worth a look.
