Aloha Gang. Well today we see our first DD bowl favorite. Just the word DD bowl favorite before the New Year, seems alittle spooky. Anyway, I have to ask myself if this line is not just a continuation reflecting the end of the season hype on Miami Ohio, or is it possibly something more along the lines of a conference Champs playing a 3rd place team from a weaker division. Hmmmm! Or maybe it is possible that this MAC team Miami Ohio is just that good, and Louisville is just that bad.
Whatever the case my be here in this one, it hard for me to simply go with a team just because of a game or games that they played in the regular season. Sure it is a good indication of what you may see here today, but it doesn't completely spell out the entire games outcome. If it was so, then how do you explain the underdogs seemingly dominating the spreads in the past Bowl games. Also, why does it happen so often in Bowl games before the New Year. Hmmm, something to definately think about.
Well I think for one reason, it is because in games before the New Year games are played, teams are matchup against eachother where it doesn't necessarily reflect an even kneel based on rankings or conference finishes. This will never happen as long as the BCS is in control, but that is another story.
This seemingly mismatching of teams based on this criteria of Conf. Champs playing 3rd place teams is alittle stupid , but hey who am I to say anything. What I can say is that a mismatch in these events does so exist, and it is in the motivations between the two teams playing. Motivation, you gotta love it when its on your side. I think that in Bowl games it is on the side of the underdog, who is more than happy to be here, and alot more motivated to pull an outright upset because they have nothing to lose.
Now another reason why I think Underdogs have dominated the spread in Bowl games is because, in these type of games where you have a Conf. Champs and ranked team playing a 3rd place team, it can be assumed that the better team is one, not interested and abit overconfident and thus not focusing so much on how to beat a team like Louisville. I feel that the better team seemingly will continue to do what they have always done during the season, and doesnt take steps to hide, change, or create a new game plan for this Bowl game inwhich they and the public view as an easy game for them to win. Instead, they go about rather enjoying the scenery and festivities of the Bowl atmosphere, as it draws more motivation and excitement than their opponent they will be facing. Ah Hah, that is where the Dog becomes dangerous. The Bowl favorite who does nothing in ways to prepare a specific game plan to deal with their opponent, leave the dangerous dog to counter this with an game plan specifically against a team who has seemingly showed all it has to the world throughout the season on TV, and also on film.
The Bowl underdogs, who have all the motivation on their side, like Louisville will be more than happy and willing to make their mark with a defeat of the highly dismotivated , highly ranked team they will be facing. For this game, I see them changing up things to counter their opponents. I see them pulling out new and never before used plays , schemes, and appearances all done to catch their over confident opponents off guard. I see them building more team pride and creating a never say die attitude all spurred on by the media and odds makers not giving them a chance in this game.
But what I feel works in the Bowl Underdogs favor and what I feel coaches do in order to bring more spotlight to their program , school , as well as their own prestige, is the fact that they will enlist the help of other coaches from other team, or other smart football gurus to help in this monumental task. Remember people, these coaches lives are somewhat on the line. And a big bowl win does nothing but bring more pluses to their lives. They are not dumb and to be a head coach, you have to have the ability to be able to take advise, get advise, and seek out advise. Louisville head man, has alot of connections inwhich to call upon to be able to put together a game plan that will take down this Miami Ohio team. I'm sure that the Miami head man entering this game as Champs and ranked wont be enlisting the help of others as he probably is also over confident in this one. I mean wouldn't you be if you were him. This is just another example of human error, it happens , and I am banking on it happening again today.
My play is to take the Louisville Cardinals +14 as a 4 Unit Play. While everyone is caught up in the Miami Ohio off powers, they easily forget about the fact that is only 1/3 of the game. Another 2/3 needs to be played. Also, Louisville's Off, though is not as high powered as the Miami Ohio Off. , still do rank 13th overall. They also have a better ground game ranked 10th in the nation and averaging 227 yards per game, compared to Miami Ohio's 155 yards per game and 46th rush ranking.
Still though, I feel that the wild card for Louisville will be the play of QB Stephen LeFors who has the ability to pass as well as run. This type of QB can change the complexity of the game and cause all sorts of problems, as well as creating new opportunities because of his abilities. What is a very interesting stat fact is that LeFors has only been sacked 7 times on the year, compared to Roethlisberger being sacked 17 times. This should say alot about the Cardinal O-Lines abilities and also LeFors scrabling abilities. He has also only had 7 int. on the year and this also speaks highly on his intelligence and game controll. QB LeFors is the key tonight gang, if he gets hot, which I expect him to be, he will be able to lead Louisville to a close game tonight. Miami Ohio is good, but Louisville is not as bad as some people think, and this coach is a winner from winning programs. Look for Louisvilles 10th ranked special teams returner Broderick Clark to open up and give the Louisville Offense good field position to work with.
Good Luck and Merry Christmas to all, Aloha CC.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 18, 2003 at 06:11 PM.]
Whatever the case my be here in this one, it hard for me to simply go with a team just because of a game or games that they played in the regular season. Sure it is a good indication of what you may see here today, but it doesn't completely spell out the entire games outcome. If it was so, then how do you explain the underdogs seemingly dominating the spreads in the past Bowl games. Also, why does it happen so often in Bowl games before the New Year. Hmmm, something to definately think about.
Well I think for one reason, it is because in games before the New Year games are played, teams are matchup against eachother where it doesn't necessarily reflect an even kneel based on rankings or conference finishes. This will never happen as long as the BCS is in control, but that is another story.
This seemingly mismatching of teams based on this criteria of Conf. Champs playing 3rd place teams is alittle stupid , but hey who am I to say anything. What I can say is that a mismatch in these events does so exist, and it is in the motivations between the two teams playing. Motivation, you gotta love it when its on your side. I think that in Bowl games it is on the side of the underdog, who is more than happy to be here, and alot more motivated to pull an outright upset because they have nothing to lose.
Now another reason why I think Underdogs have dominated the spread in Bowl games is because, in these type of games where you have a Conf. Champs and ranked team playing a 3rd place team, it can be assumed that the better team is one, not interested and abit overconfident and thus not focusing so much on how to beat a team like Louisville. I feel that the better team seemingly will continue to do what they have always done during the season, and doesnt take steps to hide, change, or create a new game plan for this Bowl game inwhich they and the public view as an easy game for them to win. Instead, they go about rather enjoying the scenery and festivities of the Bowl atmosphere, as it draws more motivation and excitement than their opponent they will be facing. Ah Hah, that is where the Dog becomes dangerous. The Bowl favorite who does nothing in ways to prepare a specific game plan to deal with their opponent, leave the dangerous dog to counter this with an game plan specifically against a team who has seemingly showed all it has to the world throughout the season on TV, and also on film.
The Bowl underdogs, who have all the motivation on their side, like Louisville will be more than happy and willing to make their mark with a defeat of the highly dismotivated , highly ranked team they will be facing. For this game, I see them changing up things to counter their opponents. I see them pulling out new and never before used plays , schemes, and appearances all done to catch their over confident opponents off guard. I see them building more team pride and creating a never say die attitude all spurred on by the media and odds makers not giving them a chance in this game.
But what I feel works in the Bowl Underdogs favor and what I feel coaches do in order to bring more spotlight to their program , school , as well as their own prestige, is the fact that they will enlist the help of other coaches from other team, or other smart football gurus to help in this monumental task. Remember people, these coaches lives are somewhat on the line. And a big bowl win does nothing but bring more pluses to their lives. They are not dumb and to be a head coach, you have to have the ability to be able to take advise, get advise, and seek out advise. Louisville head man, has alot of connections inwhich to call upon to be able to put together a game plan that will take down this Miami Ohio team. I'm sure that the Miami head man entering this game as Champs and ranked wont be enlisting the help of others as he probably is also over confident in this one. I mean wouldn't you be if you were him. This is just another example of human error, it happens , and I am banking on it happening again today.
My play is to take the Louisville Cardinals +14 as a 4 Unit Play. While everyone is caught up in the Miami Ohio off powers, they easily forget about the fact that is only 1/3 of the game. Another 2/3 needs to be played. Also, Louisville's Off, though is not as high powered as the Miami Ohio Off. , still do rank 13th overall. They also have a better ground game ranked 10th in the nation and averaging 227 yards per game, compared to Miami Ohio's 155 yards per game and 46th rush ranking.
Still though, I feel that the wild card for Louisville will be the play of QB Stephen LeFors who has the ability to pass as well as run. This type of QB can change the complexity of the game and cause all sorts of problems, as well as creating new opportunities because of his abilities. What is a very interesting stat fact is that LeFors has only been sacked 7 times on the year, compared to Roethlisberger being sacked 17 times. This should say alot about the Cardinal O-Lines abilities and also LeFors scrabling abilities. He has also only had 7 int. on the year and this also speaks highly on his intelligence and game controll. QB LeFors is the key tonight gang, if he gets hot, which I expect him to be, he will be able to lead Louisville to a close game tonight. Miami Ohio is good, but Louisville is not as bad as some people think, and this coach is a winner from winning programs. Look for Louisvilles 10th ranked special teams returner Broderick Clark to open up and give the Louisville Offense good field position to work with.
Good Luck and Merry Christmas to all, Aloha CC.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 18, 2003 at 06:11 PM.]
