top ATS winning and losing teams

[rivercitybirdie]

after week 2... i look at points vs. ATS so in theory a top team could be 1-1 (huge ATS cover, tiny ATS loss).


ATS winners (some weird ones.... not sure EMU and ATS winner have ever been uttered in the same sentence B4... illinois, cal and USF are interesting too...

Illinois	28
Mississippi	27.2
Toledo	26.5
Memphis	26
GA Tech	22.2
Duke	20.2
Air Force	20
Northwestern	18.5
Temple	18.5
E Michigan	17.2
California	14.8
Texas Tech	14.2
S Florida	14.2
Washington	13.8
USC	13.8
Buffalo	13.5
Boston Col	13.2

ATS Losers (some usual type names. but also auburn and ASU. western michigan and utah state big reversal from recent days0....

it's early but i think there's alot of useful info in these types of numbers.... source = teamrankings.com

Wyoming	-30.8
Tulane	-22.8
U Mass	-22.5
Auburn	-20.2
Arizona St	-19.2
Kent State	-16.5
TX El Paso	-15.5
Wash State	-14.5
W Michigan	-14
Texas	-13.5
Penn State	-13.5
Utah State	-13.2
Kansas	-13.2

 

[rolltide]

a couple of specific week 3's that come into play using the ats margin futility

in L10 years teams that lost ATS by >37 combined points are 14-34-2 ATS (barn, Tulane, Arizona St, Wyoming) including 5-20-1 ATS, 1-25 SU if dog of >6 (barn)

drill down further and those same teams covered just 3 out of 19 games if lost ATS weeks 1+2 by >44 (Tulane, Wyoming)

game number = 3 and p:ats margin + pp:ats margin < -37 and season > 2004​

 

[rivercitybirdie]

a couple of specific week 3's that come into play using the ats margin futility

in L10 years teams that lost ATS by >37 combined points are 14-34-2 ATS (barn, Tulane, Arizona St, Wyoming) including 5-20-1 ATS, 1-25 SU if dog of >6 (barn)

drill down further and those same teams covered just 3 out of 19 games if lost ATS weeks 1+2 by >44 (Tulane, Wyoming)

game number = 3 and p:ats margin + pp:ats margin < -37 and season > 2004​

rolltide, you must have read my mind, i have been running queries like that recently with similar type queries (didn't go as high as 37 points though)...... is the 37 points the 2 games combined? (obv. if they've played 2 games which some haven't)

who's barn BTW?

i meant to ask about a screen. not sure exactly how you'd do this with objective rules.... should we tailing chronically underachieving teams like illinois and eastern michigan that suddenly come to life? maybe cal and/or USF would qualify. also Southern Miss if you go further down the list.... as i mentioned though, there is so much subjectivity..... what about mediocre ATS teams last 3 seasons that start out hot?

 

[rivercitybirdie]

also what would happen if you relaxed the 37 points? i know the winning % is going to fall but the number of games to play would go up alot. and of course the historical sample size would go up alot too.

 

[Porkchop]

rolltide, you must have read my mind, i have been running queries like that recently with similar type queries (didn't go as high as 37 points though)...... is the 37 points the 2 games combined? (obv. if they've played 2 games which some haven't)

who's barn BTW?

i meant to ask about a screen. not sure exactly how you'd do this with objective rules.... should we tailing chronically underachieving teams like illinois and eastern michigan that suddenly come to life? maybe cal and/or USF would qualify. also Southern Miss if you go further down the list.... as i mentioned though, there is so much subjectivity..... what about mediocre ATS teams last 3 seasons that start out hot?

Barn = Auburn

 

[Toasted8CU]

BYU would have to be close to making your list

 

[cloverleaf]

ATS..............
SEASON? do some homework.
HOME FAVORITE? do some homework.
HOME DOG? do some homework.
ROAD FAVORITE? do some homework.
ROAD DOG? do some homework.

over 4 to 5 years...................I have.