-
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
LAS VEGAS -- And then there were three ...
After 108 of the record 1,727 entrants in this season's SuperContest went 5-0 against Westgate's contest lines in Week 1, just three (using the contest aliases of Team DHG, The Right Reasons and The RXers) were able to repeat the feat in Week 2, as they share the lead with 10 points (note: SuperContestants earn 1 point for a win and half a point for a push) 24 with 9 points and seven at 8.5.
The first two leaders are unknown, but The Rxers are a group of forum members at therx.com, aka The Prescription, which was the first sports betting website I posted in around the turn of the century.
It was a rough Week 2 for SuperContest players, as consensus plays went 7-9 against the spread on the 16-game card. And a week after all contestants combined to hit nearly 60 percent of all plays, the overall record in Week 2 was 4,215-4,410 (48.9 percent). After going 5-0 in Week 1, the top five most-selected teams were able to squeak out a 3-2 mark with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Arizona covering but Tennessee and Baltimore losing to drop the Top 5 consensus to 8-2 ATS (80 percent).
<aside class="inline editorial float-r" data-behavior="article_related">[h=1]Editor's Picks[/h]
-
[h=2]Nelson: Worst 'bad beats' of the weekend[/h]ESPN Chalk's Rob Nelson recaps the worst bad beats of the weekend, including a tough break for bettors who had the Miami Hurricanes covering the spread against Nebraska.
-
[h=2]Tuley: Eagles still top 10 in Vegas Rankings[/h]Which team is the NFL's best in Las Vegas' eyes? Dave Tuley and two Vegas handicappers give their power ratings for every NFL team heading into Week 3.
In 2013, the Top 5 went 0-4-1 in Week 1; it was 2-12-1 (14.3 percent) after three weeks, went 2-3 in Week 4 to "improve" to 4-15-1 ATS (21.1 percent) and kept struggling until standing at 11-33-1 ATS (25 percent) after 11 weeks. People were ripping me on Twitter for posting the Top 5 every week even though the picks kept losing. The most common opinion was that with the SuperContest topping the 1,000 mark for the first time at 1,034 that there were too many squares in the field and that the consensus was now fade material.
I'll say the same thing now that I said then. I'm not endorsing the use of the SuperContest consensus plays; I'm just reporting them, win or lose, and as you can see these things go in cycles (and I'm willing to bet that most people who said they were going to fade the SuperContest picks in 2013 ended up losing money -- the Top 5 did go 25-14-1 ATS, or 64.1 percent, the last six weeks of that season).
Over the long run, the SuperContest Top 5 consensus picks have fared pretty well -- they are 183-154-13 ATS since the start of the 2011 season -- but should do better than the 52.4 percent needed to break even because the lines are set Wednesday and can be picked up to 11 a.m. PT Saturday, so a lot of people tailing the plays are often taking a worse number.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13717964/chalk-week-2-report-westgate-supercontest
