[h=1]Top 10 QB prospects for 2014[/h][h=3]Kiper and McShay discuss which QB will go first, and ID potential sleepers[/h]By Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay | ESPN Insider
To coincide with their "Draft Lab" TV segments running this week, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are providing Insiders with their latest Top 10 prospect rankings and answering key questions for every position group.
How does this year's QB class stack up, which passer will be the first off the board and who is a sleeper to keep an eye on? Let's take a look.
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MEL KIPER
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. Blake Bortles, UCF
3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
6. AJ McCarron, Alabama
7. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
8. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
10. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
TODD MCSHAY
1. Blake Bortles, UCF
2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
4. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
6. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
7. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
8. Derek Carr, Fresno State
9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
10. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
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[h=3]Which prospect do you think will be the first QB drafted?[/h]
Mel Kiper: That's tough to say right now because we haven't yet seen Johnny Manziel's pro day performance. But since I'm pretty comfortable saying that it won't be Teddy Bridgewater, I'll say it will come down to Manziel and Blake Bortles -- and Manziel's pro day could be the deciding factor.
I've got all three graded very closely right now -- none are in the elite category -- and any ordering among the three is possible by draft time. However I could end up shading Manziel slightly ahead of the others if he does well at his pro day just because he is a unique player at the quarterback position. That could be the tiebreaker for me, but it's really hard to say right now which will be first off the board.
Todd McShay: I think the answer to this one is Bortles, for the reasons I explained in my article after his pro day on Wednesday. In short, he has the highest upside of any quarterback in his class, and the fact on Wednesday he showed he was making progress toward fixing his biggest weaknesses on tape -- his mechanics weren't sound on many of his throws this season, particularly in his lower half, and as a result his accuracy and velocity on those throws suffered -- is very encouraging for teams considering drafting him.
I've yet to hear one bad thing about him in terms of his character, intangibles and leadership ability, so if he can improve his mechanics so that he's able to drive the ball down the field with good velocity and accuracy, he is going to be under strong consideration for the teams picking at the top of the draft. Where exactly he'll go, and whether the Texans will take him No. 1 is a different question, but I do think right now that he'll be the first QB drafted.
[h=3]Which of these QB prospects are you most torn about?[/h]Todd McShay: If you take a look at the scouting report I wrote up on Manziel for our draft tracker, you'll see why he's my choice for this one. Manziel has a unique ability as an improviser both as a runner and as a thrower on the run, and even though he isn't as fast as Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, he's more elusive and more athletic than both. He also has excellent release quickness and good arm strength when his mechanics are solid, but he's unlikely to sustain NFL success unless he can improve the consistency of his ball placement (by being more disciplined with his lower-body mechanics), and makes more critical decision-making errors than any QB to whom I've given a first-round grade. It's understandable why you hear so many different opinions on whether he'll be a success in the NFL.
Mel Kiper: Honestly, I could name any of the top three QBs for this one -- separating Bortles, Bridgewater and Manziel has been a nightmare. Perhaps Manziel will provide some clarity with his pro day, but to this point these guys have been very difficult to figure out.
[h=3]Who in this class is a late-round sleeper to keep an eye on?[/h]
Mel Kiper: I'll go with Aaron Murray as a guy who has been coming in under the radar a little bit, but has the ability to be an effective quarterback in this league. I've got him as the ninth-ranked quarterback in this class right now. He's a guy who has some injury issues to put behind him with his torn ACL at the end of last season, but he could provide good value.
Todd McShay: Jimmy Garoppolo is no longer under the radar, so I'll go with Tom Savage. He played behind a very poor offensive line at Pittsburgh, and didn't get much help from his pass-catchers, either, but he was the most impressive pure thrower of the football at the combine, according to different people I've talked to from around the league. His arm strength is just a notch below elite. Another guy to keep an eye on is Merrimack's Joe Clancey, who could get a shot in a training camp as an undrafted free agent.
To coincide with their "Draft Lab" TV segments running this week, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are providing Insiders with their latest Top 10 prospect rankings and answering key questions for every position group.
How does this year's QB class stack up, which passer will be the first off the board and who is a sleeper to keep an eye on? Let's take a look.
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MEL KIPER
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. Blake Bortles, UCF
3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
4. Derek Carr, Fresno State
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
6. AJ McCarron, Alabama
7. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
8. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
10. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
TODD MCSHAY
1. Blake Bortles, UCF
2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
4. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
6. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
7. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
8. Derek Carr, Fresno State
9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
10. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
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[h=3]Which prospect do you think will be the first QB drafted?[/h]
Mel Kiper: That's tough to say right now because we haven't yet seen Johnny Manziel's pro day performance. But since I'm pretty comfortable saying that it won't be Teddy Bridgewater, I'll say it will come down to Manziel and Blake Bortles -- and Manziel's pro day could be the deciding factor.
I've got all three graded very closely right now -- none are in the elite category -- and any ordering among the three is possible by draft time. However I could end up shading Manziel slightly ahead of the others if he does well at his pro day just because he is a unique player at the quarterback position. That could be the tiebreaker for me, but it's really hard to say right now which will be first off the board.
Todd McShay: I think the answer to this one is Bortles, for the reasons I explained in my article after his pro day on Wednesday. In short, he has the highest upside of any quarterback in his class, and the fact on Wednesday he showed he was making progress toward fixing his biggest weaknesses on tape -- his mechanics weren't sound on many of his throws this season, particularly in his lower half, and as a result his accuracy and velocity on those throws suffered -- is very encouraging for teams considering drafting him.
I've yet to hear one bad thing about him in terms of his character, intangibles and leadership ability, so if he can improve his mechanics so that he's able to drive the ball down the field with good velocity and accuracy, he is going to be under strong consideration for the teams picking at the top of the draft. Where exactly he'll go, and whether the Texans will take him No. 1 is a different question, but I do think right now that he'll be the first QB drafted.
[h=3]Which of these QB prospects are you most torn about?[/h]Todd McShay: If you take a look at the scouting report I wrote up on Manziel for our draft tracker, you'll see why he's my choice for this one. Manziel has a unique ability as an improviser both as a runner and as a thrower on the run, and even though he isn't as fast as Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, he's more elusive and more athletic than both. He also has excellent release quickness and good arm strength when his mechanics are solid, but he's unlikely to sustain NFL success unless he can improve the consistency of his ball placement (by being more disciplined with his lower-body mechanics), and makes more critical decision-making errors than any QB to whom I've given a first-round grade. It's understandable why you hear so many different opinions on whether he'll be a success in the NFL.
Mel Kiper: Honestly, I could name any of the top three QBs for this one -- separating Bortles, Bridgewater and Manziel has been a nightmare. Perhaps Manziel will provide some clarity with his pro day, but to this point these guys have been very difficult to figure out.
[h=3]Who in this class is a late-round sleeper to keep an eye on?[/h]
Mel Kiper: I'll go with Aaron Murray as a guy who has been coming in under the radar a little bit, but has the ability to be an effective quarterback in this league. I've got him as the ninth-ranked quarterback in this class right now. He's a guy who has some injury issues to put behind him with his torn ACL at the end of last season, but he could provide good value.
Todd McShay: Jimmy Garoppolo is no longer under the radar, so I'll go with Tom Savage. He played behind a very poor offensive line at Pittsburgh, and didn't get much help from his pass-catchers, either, but he was the most impressive pure thrower of the football at the combine, according to different people I've talked to from around the league. His arm strength is just a notch below elite. Another guy to keep an eye on is Merrimack's Joe Clancey, who could get a shot in a training camp as an undrafted free agent.
