[h=1]Top 10 Heisman candidates for '14[/h][h=3]Oregon's Marcus Mariota tops ranking of this season's Heisman contenders[/h]
By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider
Predicting who will win the Heisman Trophy is a tough task; even when there's only a couple of weeks left in the regular season, there is always plenty of debate.
Naturally, it is even tougher predicting the winner three months prior to the season. From 1998-2000, I correctly predicted the Heisman winner three straight years, but since that time it has become nearly unpredictable. In the past two seasons alone, redshirt freshmen Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston won the award, respectively, but were in heated battles to win the starting job on their own teams in the summer ahead of their standout seasons.
Naturally when making my Heisman predictions, there are plenty of factors to consider. First, it will most likely be a quarterback -- in the past 14 years, 12 quarterbacks have won the award with the other two winners coming at the running back position. Second, the winner will most likely come from a team in contention for a title. Since 2000, the average number of victories for a team with the Heisman winner is 12, and only twice did a player win it who played on a team that lost more than two games (Tim Tebow with Florida in 2007; Robert Griffin III with Baylor in 2011).
Finally, it is pretty safe to assume a player will not repeat as a Heisman winner as it has happened only once in history (Ohio State's Archie Griffin, 1974-75). The reason it is so difficult to repeat is that the returning Heisman winner not only has to compete with the rest of the elite players in the country, but also has to compete with his previous year's stats all while doing so with a large bull's-eye on his back.
Taking in mind those factors, here are my top 10 Heisman candidates for 2014:
[h=3]1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks[/h]Last year, Mariota became the first Oregon quarterback to top 4,000 yards of total offense (4,380) while accounting for 40 total touchdowns and just four interceptions. He accomplished this despite wearing a knee brace for much of the second half of the season, which limited his mobility. With added rest for the bowl game against Texas, he ran for a season-high 133 yards. Now 100 percent healthy, he has a solid shot to top last year's remarkable statistical totals while leading a Ducks team that figures to play a huge role in the first College Football Playoff.
[h=3]2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State Seminoles[/h]Winston became the second straight redshirt freshman to take home the Heisman last year after throwing for 4,057 yards, completing 67 percent of his passes and posting a 40-10 TD-to-INT ratio while leading the Seminoles to their first national title since 1999. This year, Winston will not only try to become just the second player to take home the award twice, but also attempt to lead the Seminoles to back-to-back titles. That is a pretty tall order, even without taking the off-field issues into consideration. Both factors could have several Heisman voters looking elsewhere this fall.
[h=3]3. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]Last year, Miller was my favorite to win the award in the preseason but missed a couple of games early in the year because of injury and fell out of the race. He still improved his completion percentage from 58 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2013, throwing for 2,094 yards to go with a 24-7 TD-INT ratio while rushing for 1,068 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now in his third year in Urban Meyer's system, I can see Miller having his best year yet as the Buckeyes figure to be a playoff contender.
[h=3]4. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor Bears[/h]Two years ago, the famed former Dallas Cowboys scout Gil Brandt told me to keep an eye on the then-inexperienced sophomore Petty, and last year he broke out with 4,200 pass yards and an amazing 32-3 TD-INT ratio while leading Baylor to its first Big 12 title. This year, he has a chance to top last year's impressive numbers as he will be throwing to my No. 1 set of wide receivers in the country and will be playing on a top-10 team that could be favored in as many as 11 games. Petty has a shot to become Baylor's second Heisman winner in four years.
[h=3]5. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Last season, Gurley missed three games with injury but still accounted for 1,430 total yards and 16 touchdowns. With quarterback Aaron Murray gone, look for the Bulldogs to rely more on the ground game in 2014. Gurley has a chance to easily top his sensational freshman season of 2012 (1,385 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns) while playing for a Georgia team that is my pick to win the SEC East this year.
[h=3]6. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA Bruins[/h]It is dangerous putting Hundley this low, as I think the Bruins have a great shot at making the College Football Playoff. Last year, despite playing behind a questionable offensive line that allowed 36 sacks, Hundley threw for 3,071 yards, completed 67 percent of his passes, posted a 24-9 TD-INT ratio and became the first UCLA QB to lead the team in rushing (748 yards) since 1964. This year, Hundley has a healthier offensive line and a strong supporting cast with 16 returning starters that not only has Bruins fans thinking Pac-12 title, but also their second Heisman in school history (Gary Beban in 1967).
[h=3]7. Nick Marshall, QB, Auburn Tigers[/h]It's hard to believe that Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn has never had a returning starter at quarterback in his eight years as a college offensive coordinator or head coach, but Marshall will change that this year. Last year, the Auburn QB threw for 1,976 yards, completed 59 percent of his passes, posted a 14-6 TD-INT ratio and ran for 1,068 yards and 12 touchdowns. This offseason he spent a lot of time working on his mechanics and footwork, and I look for an even better season out of Marshall this year while playing for a top-10 Tigers team.
[h=3]8. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]Despite having to split carries for the past two years, Yeldon has managed back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns and in each season has averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry. This year will be no different for him as he is backed up by the talented Derrick Henry, who figures to get his fair share of the workload as well. However, this year Yeldon could see even more touches with the departure of quarterback AJ McCarron. And remember: An Alabama running back has finished No. 1 or No. 2 in the Heisman voting in two of the past five years.
[h=3]9. Trevor Knight, QB, Oklahoma Sooners[/h]Knight started just five games a year ago and accounted for only a combined 1,264 passing and rushing yards. However, thanks to an incredible performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl where he threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns, Knight's stock and the Sooners' expectations have skyrocketed for 2014. Unlike other Oklahoma quarterbacks in the Bob Stoops era, Knight has great mobility and it will help playing on a Sooners team that is my favorite to win the Big 12 this year.
[h=3]10. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin Badgers[/h]After averaging an incredible 10 yards per carry in 2012, Gordon averaged "only" 7.8 yards per carry last year, but still ran for 1,609 yards. This year, his former running mate James White departs, so look for Gordon to get even more carries while continuing the great tradition of Badgers running backs; they have had a 1,000-yard rusher in 19 of the past 20 years. Also helping Gordon's candidacy is the fact the Badgers have a great shot at playing in the Big Ten championship game and come in at No. 13 in my preseason Top 40.
By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider
Predicting who will win the Heisman Trophy is a tough task; even when there's only a couple of weeks left in the regular season, there is always plenty of debate.
Naturally, it is even tougher predicting the winner three months prior to the season. From 1998-2000, I correctly predicted the Heisman winner three straight years, but since that time it has become nearly unpredictable. In the past two seasons alone, redshirt freshmen Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston won the award, respectively, but were in heated battles to win the starting job on their own teams in the summer ahead of their standout seasons.
Naturally when making my Heisman predictions, there are plenty of factors to consider. First, it will most likely be a quarterback -- in the past 14 years, 12 quarterbacks have won the award with the other two winners coming at the running back position. Second, the winner will most likely come from a team in contention for a title. Since 2000, the average number of victories for a team with the Heisman winner is 12, and only twice did a player win it who played on a team that lost more than two games (Tim Tebow with Florida in 2007; Robert Griffin III with Baylor in 2011).
Finally, it is pretty safe to assume a player will not repeat as a Heisman winner as it has happened only once in history (Ohio State's Archie Griffin, 1974-75). The reason it is so difficult to repeat is that the returning Heisman winner not only has to compete with the rest of the elite players in the country, but also has to compete with his previous year's stats all while doing so with a large bull's-eye on his back.
Taking in mind those factors, here are my top 10 Heisman candidates for 2014:
[h=3]1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks[/h]Last year, Mariota became the first Oregon quarterback to top 4,000 yards of total offense (4,380) while accounting for 40 total touchdowns and just four interceptions. He accomplished this despite wearing a knee brace for much of the second half of the season, which limited his mobility. With added rest for the bowl game against Texas, he ran for a season-high 133 yards. Now 100 percent healthy, he has a solid shot to top last year's remarkable statistical totals while leading a Ducks team that figures to play a huge role in the first College Football Playoff.
[h=3]2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State Seminoles[/h]Winston became the second straight redshirt freshman to take home the Heisman last year after throwing for 4,057 yards, completing 67 percent of his passes and posting a 40-10 TD-to-INT ratio while leading the Seminoles to their first national title since 1999. This year, Winston will not only try to become just the second player to take home the award twice, but also attempt to lead the Seminoles to back-to-back titles. That is a pretty tall order, even without taking the off-field issues into consideration. Both factors could have several Heisman voters looking elsewhere this fall.
[h=3]3. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]Last year, Miller was my favorite to win the award in the preseason but missed a couple of games early in the year because of injury and fell out of the race. He still improved his completion percentage from 58 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2013, throwing for 2,094 yards to go with a 24-7 TD-INT ratio while rushing for 1,068 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now in his third year in Urban Meyer's system, I can see Miller having his best year yet as the Buckeyes figure to be a playoff contender.
[h=3]4. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor Bears[/h]Two years ago, the famed former Dallas Cowboys scout Gil Brandt told me to keep an eye on the then-inexperienced sophomore Petty, and last year he broke out with 4,200 pass yards and an amazing 32-3 TD-INT ratio while leading Baylor to its first Big 12 title. This year, he has a chance to top last year's impressive numbers as he will be throwing to my No. 1 set of wide receivers in the country and will be playing on a top-10 team that could be favored in as many as 11 games. Petty has a shot to become Baylor's second Heisman winner in four years.
[h=3]5. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Last season, Gurley missed three games with injury but still accounted for 1,430 total yards and 16 touchdowns. With quarterback Aaron Murray gone, look for the Bulldogs to rely more on the ground game in 2014. Gurley has a chance to easily top his sensational freshman season of 2012 (1,385 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns) while playing for a Georgia team that is my pick to win the SEC East this year.
[h=3]6. Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA Bruins[/h]It is dangerous putting Hundley this low, as I think the Bruins have a great shot at making the College Football Playoff. Last year, despite playing behind a questionable offensive line that allowed 36 sacks, Hundley threw for 3,071 yards, completed 67 percent of his passes, posted a 24-9 TD-INT ratio and became the first UCLA QB to lead the team in rushing (748 yards) since 1964. This year, Hundley has a healthier offensive line and a strong supporting cast with 16 returning starters that not only has Bruins fans thinking Pac-12 title, but also their second Heisman in school history (Gary Beban in 1967).
[h=3]7. Nick Marshall, QB, Auburn Tigers[/h]It's hard to believe that Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn has never had a returning starter at quarterback in his eight years as a college offensive coordinator or head coach, but Marshall will change that this year. Last year, the Auburn QB threw for 1,976 yards, completed 59 percent of his passes, posted a 14-6 TD-INT ratio and ran for 1,068 yards and 12 touchdowns. This offseason he spent a lot of time working on his mechanics and footwork, and I look for an even better season out of Marshall this year while playing for a top-10 Tigers team.
[h=3]8. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]Despite having to split carries for the past two years, Yeldon has managed back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns and in each season has averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry. This year will be no different for him as he is backed up by the talented Derrick Henry, who figures to get his fair share of the workload as well. However, this year Yeldon could see even more touches with the departure of quarterback AJ McCarron. And remember: An Alabama running back has finished No. 1 or No. 2 in the Heisman voting in two of the past five years.
[h=3]9. Trevor Knight, QB, Oklahoma Sooners[/h]Knight started just five games a year ago and accounted for only a combined 1,264 passing and rushing yards. However, thanks to an incredible performance against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl where he threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns, Knight's stock and the Sooners' expectations have skyrocketed for 2014. Unlike other Oklahoma quarterbacks in the Bob Stoops era, Knight has great mobility and it will help playing on a Sooners team that is my favorite to win the Big 12 this year.
[h=3]10. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin Badgers[/h]After averaging an incredible 10 yards per carry in 2012, Gordon averaged "only" 7.8 yards per carry last year, but still ran for 1,609 yards. This year, his former running mate James White departs, so look for Gordon to get even more carries while continuing the great tradition of Badgers running backs; they have had a 1,000-yard rusher in 19 of the past 20 years. Also helping Gordon's candidacy is the fact the Badgers have a great shot at playing in the Big Ten championship game and come in at No. 13 in my preseason Top 40.
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