ESPN+ NFL Thanksgiving Games Best Bets
It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and the action kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving showdowns. Handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson, along with NFL expert Mike Clay, have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for Thursday's games.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Total: 44.5
Johnson: Trivia question: Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes rank first and second in the NFL in QBR. Which quarterback ranks third?
Jared Goff? Nope.
Philip Rivers? No.
Ben Roethlisberger maybe? Negative.
Oh, Andrew Luck has had a really great run as of late. It's him? Not quite.
The GOAT in New England they call Tom Brady? Not even close.
Give up? It's Mitchell Trubisky! He's been stellar in Chicago this season (and nobody is really talking about it). The Bears' offense isn't the Chiefs or Saints or Rams, but with their defense, they don't need to be. Trubisky takes care of the football relatively well and does enough to get his team wins. Chicago ranks eighth in yards per pass attempt during a season that could produce the five most efficient team passing seasons we have ever seen (it's unlikely all five beat out the 2016 Falcons, though). Matt Nagy deserves credit for the Bears' success, but Trubisky has to execute to make it all work -- and he has.
The reason it's relevant? Trubisky suffered a shoulder injury this past Sunday, and Chicago is preparing to face the Lions without him. Chase Daniel is the backup quarterback. He has started only two games in his nine years in the league. He's thrown one touchdown and one interception. The market number at Bears -3.5 still implies Trubisky is under center, in my opinion.
Daniel is certainly a downgrade (on very limited data, but the fact that he has started two games in nine seasons should be telling enough), and I personally project the Bears to be just one-point favorites with him under center. Some shops are still offering +4s on the Lions as well, so keep an eye out for your best option -- but I believe the Lions are worth another bet this week.
Pick: Lions +3.5
Sharp: In the last meeting just two weeks ago, the Bears rushed to a 26-7 halftime lead before holding on against a late Lions rally. The Bears were shut down on the ground, producing just 2.5 yards per carry and a 32 percent success rate (only 3.2 yards per carry in the first half) -- and they had to turn to the air, with Mitchell Trubisky passing for 11.8 yards per attempt and 355 total yards. But Trubisky is likely out for this game, and in his place will be Chase Daniel, who has intimate familiarity with this scheme but does not have much game experience.
For the Lions, it looks like they will be without starting RB Kerryon Johnson and starting WR Marvin Jones Jr. This means essentially a two-wideout tandem of Kenny Golladay and Bruce Ellington, with a lot of short running back passes to Theo Riddick. The problem with this attack is the Bears' defense is tremendously good against No. 1 WRs and RBs. In the last meeting, WR1 Marvin Jones was limited to just three catches. If Golladay is limited by the defense, the Lions just don't have many weapons to produce on offense.
Pick: Pass
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Total: 40.5
Johnson: The Redskins opened +9 in Dallas this week and have since been bet down to +7.5. After the gruesome Alex Smith injury this past Sunday, oddsmakers were taking a seemingly blind guess about replacement Colt McCoy, who will be under center in Week 12. Well, they were wrong. There has been an immediate move on Washington, and I think we could still see it move down further. My projection for the game with McCoy under center is Dallas -6.4, which is just under a three-point drop-off from Smith.
I'm not in love with the Redskins as a team in general, and wrote about their good fortune to this point in the season in my Week 11 preview. I only made a smaller wager myself, but I do think it is now or never if you are leaning the Redskins' way. If you like the Dallas side, I anticipate you will be able to get a -7 or maybe even better come Thursday.
Pick: Smaller bet on Redskins +7.5
Sharp: The Redskins' offensive line has been decimated by injuries, and the starting QB just went down with a broken leg. This makes it a challenge to accomplish much offensively on the road against a surprisingly good Cowboys defense. However, last week against a better pass rush, the Redskins were still able to navigate the waters and keep it close in a loss to the Texans. Houston had the No. 2-ranked run defense and the Redskins still produced a 55 percent success rate on the ground, although some of that efficiency was from the QBs. Against a very bad Falcons pass defense last week, the Cowboys gained only 6.5 yards per attempt and produced an 86 passer rating. In what should be a very low-scoring game, the points come with more value, and Colt McCoy could step in and surprise.
Lean: Redskins +7.5
Colt McCoy over/under 19.5 pass completions (-110)
Clay: With Alex Smith under center for a majority of the snaps this season, Washington is averaging 21.1 completions per game. That's on the low end, to be sure, but it's still higher than 10 other teams. Smith cleared 20 completions in six of his nine games, and the Cowboys are allowing 22.9 completions per game, which is 15th most.
Washington has been fairly balanced offensively but has been ahead on 45 percent of its offensive snaps, which is sixth highest in the league. With Smith out and the Redskins on the road to face a Dallas team that is trending up, Washington is an underdog for good reason. Playing from behind will lead to additional pass attempts and completions. For what it's worth, McCoy last played meaningful snaps in three games back in 2014 and completed 20, 31 and 25 passes in those affairs.
Pick: Over 19.5 completions
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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13)
Total: 60.5
Johnson: Despite losing in back-to-back weeks to the Browns and the Cowboys, the Falcons are one of nine teams in the NFC sitting in a mediocrity zone with records ranging from 4-6 to 6-4. That's right -- there are nine teams that could easily earn a spot in this year's NFC playoffs (and three of these teams are still vying for a division crown). Unfortunately for Atlanta, it runs into the league's hottest team on the road in what I can safely call a must-win week.
This spread is too high. These are the teams I would favor the Saints over by at least 13 points right now: Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Bills. The Cardinals and Browns are close. Even after significant adjustments to the recent play of both teams, my projection for this game is Saints -9.8. I can admit it is tough to step in front of this New Orleans train. I was fortunate enough to stay away from the Eagles last week despite the numbers telling me they were a bet against this Saints squad.
Matt Ryan in a division rivalry game in this spot getting +13, however, won't keep me away. I've made a smaller bet already on Atlanta at +13 after seeing this get bet up from 12 earlier this week. If it reaches +14 at some point, then it will be a regular-sized bet at that number.
Pick: Smaller bet on Falcons +13
Sharp: When you're coming off of back-to-back 37-plus-point victories, line-makers will install you as a massive home favorite even though it's a divisional game. A divisional game in a series in which the Saints have won by more than six points just once in the past 13 meetings, and never have won by more than 10 points since 2012. The Saints' last six games have come against much better pass defenses than the Falcons, and meanwhile, Atlanta hasn't faced anyone with a decent passing attack since Week 6 vs. the Buccaneers, as their last four opponents rank below average when passing
I expect the No. 2 pass offense of the Saints to be a shock to the system of the Falcons, making their defense look well worse than it has in recent weeks. The Falcons' rushing attack has trended better in recent weeks, but that has come against some bad run defenses. Playing at home, Tevin Coleman gained 7.3 yards per carry last week, but Atlanta gave him just eight attempts as it passed the ball on 67 percent of plays despite leading for much of the game.
There is no doubt that if the Falcons are trailing, they will be forced into a more pass-heavy attack.
Pick: Pass
It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and the action kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving showdowns. Handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson, along with NFL expert Mike Clay, have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for Thursday's games.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Total: 44.5
Johnson: Trivia question: Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes rank first and second in the NFL in QBR. Which quarterback ranks third?
Jared Goff? Nope.
Philip Rivers? No.
Ben Roethlisberger maybe? Negative.
Oh, Andrew Luck has had a really great run as of late. It's him? Not quite.
The GOAT in New England they call Tom Brady? Not even close.
Give up? It's Mitchell Trubisky! He's been stellar in Chicago this season (and nobody is really talking about it). The Bears' offense isn't the Chiefs or Saints or Rams, but with their defense, they don't need to be. Trubisky takes care of the football relatively well and does enough to get his team wins. Chicago ranks eighth in yards per pass attempt during a season that could produce the five most efficient team passing seasons we have ever seen (it's unlikely all five beat out the 2016 Falcons, though). Matt Nagy deserves credit for the Bears' success, but Trubisky has to execute to make it all work -- and he has.
The reason it's relevant? Trubisky suffered a shoulder injury this past Sunday, and Chicago is preparing to face the Lions without him. Chase Daniel is the backup quarterback. He has started only two games in his nine years in the league. He's thrown one touchdown and one interception. The market number at Bears -3.5 still implies Trubisky is under center, in my opinion.
Daniel is certainly a downgrade (on very limited data, but the fact that he has started two games in nine seasons should be telling enough), and I personally project the Bears to be just one-point favorites with him under center. Some shops are still offering +4s on the Lions as well, so keep an eye out for your best option -- but I believe the Lions are worth another bet this week.
Pick: Lions +3.5
Sharp: In the last meeting just two weeks ago, the Bears rushed to a 26-7 halftime lead before holding on against a late Lions rally. The Bears were shut down on the ground, producing just 2.5 yards per carry and a 32 percent success rate (only 3.2 yards per carry in the first half) -- and they had to turn to the air, with Mitchell Trubisky passing for 11.8 yards per attempt and 355 total yards. But Trubisky is likely out for this game, and in his place will be Chase Daniel, who has intimate familiarity with this scheme but does not have much game experience.
For the Lions, it looks like they will be without starting RB Kerryon Johnson and starting WR Marvin Jones Jr. This means essentially a two-wideout tandem of Kenny Golladay and Bruce Ellington, with a lot of short running back passes to Theo Riddick. The problem with this attack is the Bears' defense is tremendously good against No. 1 WRs and RBs. In the last meeting, WR1 Marvin Jones was limited to just three catches. If Golladay is limited by the defense, the Lions just don't have many weapons to produce on offense.
Pick: Pass
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Total: 40.5
Johnson: The Redskins opened +9 in Dallas this week and have since been bet down to +7.5. After the gruesome Alex Smith injury this past Sunday, oddsmakers were taking a seemingly blind guess about replacement Colt McCoy, who will be under center in Week 12. Well, they were wrong. There has been an immediate move on Washington, and I think we could still see it move down further. My projection for the game with McCoy under center is Dallas -6.4, which is just under a three-point drop-off from Smith.
I'm not in love with the Redskins as a team in general, and wrote about their good fortune to this point in the season in my Week 11 preview. I only made a smaller wager myself, but I do think it is now or never if you are leaning the Redskins' way. If you like the Dallas side, I anticipate you will be able to get a -7 or maybe even better come Thursday.
Pick: Smaller bet on Redskins +7.5
Sharp: The Redskins' offensive line has been decimated by injuries, and the starting QB just went down with a broken leg. This makes it a challenge to accomplish much offensively on the road against a surprisingly good Cowboys defense. However, last week against a better pass rush, the Redskins were still able to navigate the waters and keep it close in a loss to the Texans. Houston had the No. 2-ranked run defense and the Redskins still produced a 55 percent success rate on the ground, although some of that efficiency was from the QBs. Against a very bad Falcons pass defense last week, the Cowboys gained only 6.5 yards per attempt and produced an 86 passer rating. In what should be a very low-scoring game, the points come with more value, and Colt McCoy could step in and surprise.
Lean: Redskins +7.5
Colt McCoy over/under 19.5 pass completions (-110)
Clay: With Alex Smith under center for a majority of the snaps this season, Washington is averaging 21.1 completions per game. That's on the low end, to be sure, but it's still higher than 10 other teams. Smith cleared 20 completions in six of his nine games, and the Cowboys are allowing 22.9 completions per game, which is 15th most.
Washington has been fairly balanced offensively but has been ahead on 45 percent of its offensive snaps, which is sixth highest in the league. With Smith out and the Redskins on the road to face a Dallas team that is trending up, Washington is an underdog for good reason. Playing from behind will lead to additional pass attempts and completions. For what it's worth, McCoy last played meaningful snaps in three games back in 2014 and completed 20, 31 and 25 passes in those affairs.
Pick: Over 19.5 completions
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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13)
Total: 60.5
Johnson: Despite losing in back-to-back weeks to the Browns and the Cowboys, the Falcons are one of nine teams in the NFC sitting in a mediocrity zone with records ranging from 4-6 to 6-4. That's right -- there are nine teams that could easily earn a spot in this year's NFC playoffs (and three of these teams are still vying for a division crown). Unfortunately for Atlanta, it runs into the league's hottest team on the road in what I can safely call a must-win week.
This spread is too high. These are the teams I would favor the Saints over by at least 13 points right now: Raiders, Dolphins, Jets, Bills. The Cardinals and Browns are close. Even after significant adjustments to the recent play of both teams, my projection for this game is Saints -9.8. I can admit it is tough to step in front of this New Orleans train. I was fortunate enough to stay away from the Eagles last week despite the numbers telling me they were a bet against this Saints squad.
Matt Ryan in a division rivalry game in this spot getting +13, however, won't keep me away. I've made a smaller bet already on Atlanta at +13 after seeing this get bet up from 12 earlier this week. If it reaches +14 at some point, then it will be a regular-sized bet at that number.
Pick: Smaller bet on Falcons +13
Sharp: When you're coming off of back-to-back 37-plus-point victories, line-makers will install you as a massive home favorite even though it's a divisional game. A divisional game in a series in which the Saints have won by more than six points just once in the past 13 meetings, and never have won by more than 10 points since 2012. The Saints' last six games have come against much better pass defenses than the Falcons, and meanwhile, Atlanta hasn't faced anyone with a decent passing attack since Week 6 vs. the Buccaneers, as their last four opponents rank below average when passing
I expect the No. 2 pass offense of the Saints to be a shock to the system of the Falcons, making their defense look well worse than it has in recent weeks. The Falcons' rushing attack has trended better in recent weeks, but that has come against some bad run defenses. Playing at home, Tevin Coleman gained 7.3 yards per carry last week, but Atlanta gave him just eight attempts as it passed the ball on 67 percent of plays despite leading for much of the game.
There is no doubt that if the Falcons are trailing, they will be forced into a more pass-heavy attack.
Pick: Pass
ESPN+ CFB Best Bets
Stanford Steve Coughlin - 38-18-1 ATS (last week: 1-3)
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No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-13.5) at Ole Miss Rebels (O/U 62)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: There will be plenty of emotion in Oxford Thanksgiving night when these two rivals take the field. The rivalry is tied 10-10 in the past 20 meetings. We know how the Bulldogs offense has struggled to throw the ball this year, but Nick Fitzgerald is fresh off his best effort of the year, in which he completed 9 of 14 passes for 127 yards and 4 TDs while running for 85 yards -- including a 2-yard touchdown. He now has 3,387 career rushing yards, extending his Southeastern Conference record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
On the other side, the Ole Miss offense is led by QB Jordan Ta'amu, who has thrown for more than 3,800 yards this year. I think there will be plenty of points in this game, as Ole Miss tries to keep up. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 62
Score: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 30
Stanford Steve Coughlin - 38-18-1 ATS (last week: 1-3)
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No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-13.5) at Ole Miss Rebels (O/U 62)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: There will be plenty of emotion in Oxford Thanksgiving night when these two rivals take the field. The rivalry is tied 10-10 in the past 20 meetings. We know how the Bulldogs offense has struggled to throw the ball this year, but Nick Fitzgerald is fresh off his best effort of the year, in which he completed 9 of 14 passes for 127 yards and 4 TDs while running for 85 yards -- including a 2-yard touchdown. He now has 3,387 career rushing yards, extending his Southeastern Conference record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
On the other side, the Ole Miss offense is led by QB Jordan Ta'amu, who has thrown for more than 3,800 yards this year. I think there will be plenty of points in this game, as Ole Miss tries to keep up. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 62
Score: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 30
