WIZARD OF ODDS
PICK✳
��Blue Jays F5 ML +175
Blue Jays +1.5 (+120)
Blue Jays ML +180��
Blue Jays receiving 42% of total handle on 19% of tickets implying heavy sharp money on the Jays (+23% money to ticket differential)
German last four starts, giving up 14 earned runs during that span. He also gave up multiple home runs in three of those four outings.
The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 overall and just took two of three against the Rays, and the model likes their value as a big home underdog on Thursday
✳PICK✳
��Indians ML (-110)
Over 9��
Clevinger is 2-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 11 career appearances (eight starts) against the Twins but is 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA in four games (three starts) at Target Field.
Gibson, who is 3-9 with a 5.34 ERA in 19 career starts against Cleveland
The Indians 39-16 in their last 55 games
Last meeting Gibson lasted just 3.2 innings as the bullpen carried the Twins to victory
Nelson Cruz, who has hit 32 home runs, is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, batting .426 with 13 homers and 27 RBI in his last 15
✳Pick✳
��Braves F5 -0.5 (-130)
Braves -1.5 (-130)��
Dallas Keuchel has a solid 3.86 ERA since joining the Braves in the middle of the season,
Miami has lost nine of 10 overall and the Braves just took two of three against the AL Central-leading Twins
Braves 10-2 on the season against Miami
The Braves are 18-5 straight-up as road favorites this year
✳Pick✳
��Cubs ML -121
Cubs -1.5 (+120)��
Hamels 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 18 career starts versus the Reds.
Reds left-hander Alex Wood (1-0, 3.18 ERA) will get the nod on Thursday after yielding two runs in each of his starts this season since returning from the disabled list
The Cubs are 12-6 with Cole Hamels starts, and my model is projecting another quality outing for him, saying he'll go almost seven full innings and give up fewer than two runs
Picks w/ confidence ratings
��Cubs ML
��Braves F5 -0.5
��Braves -1.5
��Blue Jays +1.5
��Cubs -1.5
��Blue Jays F5 ML
��Indians ML
��Indians over 9
Blue Jays ML
��most CONFIDENT
��very CONFIDENT
strong lean