Thursday Service Play Thread 8/01/2019

[bmd1803]

DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS

MLB TOTALS SYSTEM BEST BET $$$$$
Game: (913) Houston Astros at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-100)

View Analysis

7:10 PM ET -- MLB

913 Houston Astros
914 Cleveland Indians

PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (-100)

BET SIZE: 4%

List Cole & Salazar

4% play at 8.5 or higher
3% play at 8
No play below 8

DB's THOUGHTS:

Gerrit Cole's numbers are fantastic no matter how you slice them. These Indians hitters own a weak .174 average against him. Cleveland is only averaging 3.9 runs in home night games against righty starters, with the Under going 14-6-1 in those contests.

Danny Salazar hasn't pitched a big league game since 2017. He owns a career 3.82 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 3.27 K/BB, 27.8% K%, 1.26 WHIP, etc. -- All good numbers. And those numbers are even better at Progressive Field. Houston's hitters only own a .211 average against him, and they haven't faced him in two years.

Both bullpens are among the best in the league.

We also get Vic Carapazza behind the plate. Carapazza has shown a strong Under bias overall. The Under is 6-3 with Carapazza calling balls & strikes in Cleveland, including 4-0 the last four.

PLAY UNDER.

 

[bmd1803]

DR. CHUCK

Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Pineda v. Yamamoto
Gallen and Alcantara couldn't get the job done...but in an early start game 3...on get away day for the Twinks...not back to South Beach this season and another solid win last night in dominating fashion....curfew last night might be a smidge sketchy plus we have Lance Barrett behind the plate...as good of an Under bet as there is...

 

[bmd1803]

H&H Sports

MLB
5* Red Sox -122
4* Cardinals -112
3* Giants +146
3* Marlins +155
3* Padres/Dodgers Over 7.5 (-120)

 

[mcmister]

[h=2]BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (August 1)[/h]The model has 3 sides and 4 total. There is 2 games with a side and total in the same game.
904 .5* CHC/STL u8.5 -110
907 .5* SDP +177
908 .5* SDP/LAD u8 -114
911 .67* TBR +127
916 .5* MIN/MIA u8 -108
917 .5* NYM -144
918 .5* NYM/CHW u9.5 -113

[h=5][/h]

 

[mcmister]

Tony Chau John Morrison MLB Series Plays

UPCOMING PLAYS
8/2 Detroit Tigers vs Rangers
8/2 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
8/2 Colorado Rockies vs Giants
8/2 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Mets
8/5 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cardinals
8/5 Baltimore Orioles vs Yankees
8/5 Kansas City Royals vs Red Sox
8/9 Washington Nationals vs Mets
8/9 Chicago White Sox vs Athletics
8/9 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cardinals
8/12 Colorado Rockies vs Diamondbacks
8/13 Miami Marlins vs Dodgers
8/13 Detroit Tigers vs Mariners
8/16 Atlanta Braves vs Dodgers
8/16 Washington Nationals vs Brewers
8/16 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cubs
8/19 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cardinals
8/19 Detroit Tigers vs Astros
8/26 Miami Marlins vs Reds
8/27 Detroit Tigers vs Indians
8/30 Miami Marlins vs Nationals
*SYSTEM ENDS AT THE END OF AUGUST*
9/2 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Padres
9/10 Chicago White Sox vs Royals
9/16 Milwaukee Brewers vs Padres

 

[jdpII]

Desert sports:

Chc-105
stl-115
nym-190
stl/chc u9
lad/sdu9
phi/sf u10.5
cws/nym u10

 

[Twuan_Almighty]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
CIN F5 +.5 +100 3u

MLB Season: 76-77-7 50% -26.55 units

 

[sailfish]

Miller locks

1:05 pm est mlb
san francisco giants vs. Philadelphia phillies

pick: Philadelphia phillies (-151)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Boston red sox

pick: Boston red sox (-124)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
houston astros vs. Cleveland indians

pick: Houston astros -1.5 (-126)

risk: 11 units

 

[sailfish]

JOE RAINERI

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (911) Tampa Bay Rays at (912) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-105)

View Analysis

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox meet Thursday night at Fenway Park for the final game of their three game series. Talk about a missed opportunity. After winning three of four over the Yankees, the Red Sox have now lost the series against the Rays and fail to gain any ground in the Wild Card chase. Now their looking at getting swept by the red hot hitting Rays who have won five of their last six.

The Rays have scored 24 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in seven of their last nine games. They have also won seven of their last 10 games when scoring four or more runs. Rookie Brendan McKay gets the ball for them tonight and he's 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season. This will be McKay’s first career game against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

The Rays certainly need some pitching help because of the injuries to their frontline starters and are turning to the rookie to give them some innings. McKay made four starts before getting sent down the last time and he posted a 3.72 ERA with a 2.86 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP in those starts with 18 strikeouts against one walk. He was pretty bad in his last start against the White Sox, but pitched well at home against Texas and the Yankees.

However, the Rays have bullpen issues. Diego Castillo, Colin Poche, and Chaz Roe have all worked three of the last four days. Oliver Drake had yesterday off after pitching three of the previous four days. The Rays really need McKay to chew up some innings in this one. That seems a little iffy at Fenway against this lineup. Especially since it's his first time.

The Red Sox are sending Andrew Cashner to the mound in order to stop the bleeding tonight. This will be Cashner's fourth start for the Sox since coming over from the Orioles. He has struggled since coming over as well with an ERA of 6.11, 1.64 WHIP, and .397 OBA. He allowed 9 earned runs against the Blue Jays and Orioles. In his most recent outing against the Yankees, he was lucky to get out of it with only 3 earned runs. Cashner was touched up for 10 hits and 3 runs in 6.2 innings. He also walked a batter, so it could have been much worse for him.

The bottom line in this game will be won with offense and not pitching.

The over hit in the first two games and the over is 17-5 in Boston’s last 22 home games. The over is also 5-2-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games as an underdog. Tampa’s bullpen has been crushed so far this week and is sporting a 6.05 ERA. I wouldn't count on Cashner keeping this hot hitting Rays hitters in check either.

I'll be betting the OVER in this game and will sprinkle a little something on the Rays F5 and FG ML as well.

Take the OVER in this game and get ready for both these teams to score some runs.

 

[sailfish]

Dime Man - Dodgers Astros

Champagne - Twins O's Cubs under

 

[sailfish]

Marco
3% Reds First 5

 

[sailfish]

MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:15 PM EST
Rotation #903-904
Cardinals -115 over Cubs
Flaherty/Lester​

 

[sailfish]

winningsportsplay

VIP PICKS (NFLx - GAME OF THE YEAR)
Pick: (127) Denver -2
Prediction: Denver 27 Atlanta 13
In preseason we look for 4 things; Coaching, QB rotation, depth charts and motivation. Tonight we have all 4 ingredients with the Denver Broncos but we are going to focus on motivation as the key for this play. Denver has new sheriff in town, head coach Vic Fangio, a man that is known for his tenacious defenses, defenses that have ranked in the top 5 for yards allowed in 8 of 12 of his seasons and top 5 for points allowed in 7 of his 12 seasons. While defense is at the forefront Coach Fangio will also be looking to showcase some great young talent and offseason additions, especially on the offensive side where he will look to push the pace and score often. There is a great deal of enthusiasm around his arrival and he will be looking to impress in his first game as head coach, a game he and his players are motivated to win. And we can't think of any better way to show his defensive commitment than having one of the best defensive players in recent history on the their sideline tonight as former Bronco Champ Bailey is being inducted into the HOF. Additionally, we have the added motivation of playing for owner Pat Bowlen who died 6 weeks ago. Bowlen was a players and coaches guy... everyone loved him. With tonight kicking off the 100th season we also can't think of any other way the league would want to celebrate than by having the team who proudly displays the "dark horse" outside their stadium to win. It also helps knowing we have a huge 29-0 trend backing certain preseason teams, team with fewer previous season wins, if they have a new head coach.

 

[sailfish]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (909) Toronto Blue Jays at (910) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Baltimore Orioles -108

View Analysis

Thornton v. Wojchiehowski

Asher is the man...and on rest facing a visiting team who just swept the Royals in KC...such a great underrated spot...and a full on line flip (at most books) despite 2 of 3 tickets on the visiting blue birds!

42-21 system spot on the O's at home tonight...

Game: (913) Houston Astros at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-120)

View Analysis

Cole v. Salazar

Seems too easy...line a bit lower than I'd have figured...maybe Reyes is in...we know Puig is out...and Salazar hasn't pitched in the majors in a couple years and he's rewarded with the feisty Stros who had a night to grasp the gravity of their situation and also a half dozen run loss to boot!

10-4 the other way feels light even no?

Game: (911) Tampa Bay Rays at (912) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Tampa Bay Rays +100

View Analysis

McKay v. Cashner