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Thursday Service Play Thread 10/31/2019
- Thread starter BuzzKill
- Start date
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
2:51 PM
SAN FRANCISCO -10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
This is a ton of points to lay in a divisional game, and my power ratings say the number should be much lower, but I'm still going to ride the 49ers. Their pass defense is elite, and the Cardinals' RB injuries make me unafraid of their ability to run the ball. On offense, the 49ers shouldn't have an issue moving the ball against a defense that ranks 30th in points per drive and that has given up 400-plus yards in five of their eight games. If 49ers are up big in the second half, I'm unworried about a backdoor cover by Arizona against San Francisco's elite pass defense.
28-22 IN LAST 50 NFL PICKS | +351
13-9-2 IN LAST 24 ARI ATS PICKS | +299
9-7 IN LAST 16 SF ATS PICKS | +131
Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 11:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO -10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The 49ers are going to pound this team. Arizona has no defense. San Francisco, on the other hand, has gotten 20 sacks from four players and has allowed a total of 23 points in its last four games. The Cardinals are hurting at running back and their QB won't have a chance. Lay the points.
12-5 IN LAST 17 NFL ATS PICKS | +655
2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +89
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 4:59 PM
OVER 43
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The 49ers have allowed only 11 points per game this season, helping five of their seven games stay under the total. The San Francisco offense will be able to match its season scoring average (29.6) against a Cardinals defense that allows 28.9 per game. The main variable here is how the Cardinals offense will fare, and I believe it will do well. The Arizona offense is hard to stop, and it will only get better with each game. Over is the play.
8-5 IN LAST 13 NFL O/U PICKS | +250
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI O/U PICKS | +90
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
TUE 10/29
ARIZONA +10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
Extensive travel caught up with the Cardinals last Sunday when their three-game win streak ended against the Saints, who were inspired by the return of beloved QB Drew Brees. Arizona is back home after playing three away games in four weeks — all back east. San Francisco might be unbeaten, but the double-digit line is a case of overexuberance, especially for a Thursday nighter on the road.
9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +354
FEATURED PICK
Zack Cimini
CONTRARIAN WITH CHUTZPAH
TUE 10/29
ARIZONA +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The San Francisco 49ers continue to show new levels of excellence. Last week’s statement win over the Carolina Panthers was all the more impressive as they handled an above-average team coming off a bye week. With Thursday's quick turnaround, I expect San Fran to try to run the ball and wear down the Cardinals. Yet, look for Arizona to match the 49ers offensively and keep this within the number. Grab Arizona.
4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS | +66
6-0-1 IN LAST 7 ARI ATS PICKS | +605
SUPER STAT GEEK
2:51 PM
SAN FRANCISCO -10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
This is a ton of points to lay in a divisional game, and my power ratings say the number should be much lower, but I'm still going to ride the 49ers. Their pass defense is elite, and the Cardinals' RB injuries make me unafraid of their ability to run the ball. On offense, the 49ers shouldn't have an issue moving the ball against a defense that ranks 30th in points per drive and that has given up 400-plus yards in five of their eight games. If 49ers are up big in the second half, I'm unworried about a backdoor cover by Arizona against San Francisco's elite pass defense.
28-22 IN LAST 50 NFL PICKS | +351
13-9-2 IN LAST 24 ARI ATS PICKS | +299
9-7 IN LAST 16 SF ATS PICKS | +131
Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 11:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO -10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The 49ers are going to pound this team. Arizona has no defense. San Francisco, on the other hand, has gotten 20 sacks from four players and has allowed a total of 23 points in its last four games. The Cardinals are hurting at running back and their QB won't have a chance. Lay the points.
12-5 IN LAST 17 NFL ATS PICKS | +655
2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +89
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 4:59 PM
OVER 43
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The 49ers have allowed only 11 points per game this season, helping five of their seven games stay under the total. The San Francisco offense will be able to match its season scoring average (29.6) against a Cardinals defense that allows 28.9 per game. The main variable here is how the Cardinals offense will fare, and I believe it will do well. The Arizona offense is hard to stop, and it will only get better with each game. Over is the play.
8-5 IN LAST 13 NFL O/U PICKS | +250
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI O/U PICKS | +90
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
TUE 10/29
ARIZONA +10
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
Extensive travel caught up with the Cardinals last Sunday when their three-game win streak ended against the Saints, who were inspired by the return of beloved QB Drew Brees. Arizona is back home after playing three away games in four weeks — all back east. San Francisco might be unbeaten, but the double-digit line is a case of overexuberance, especially for a Thursday nighter on the road.
9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +354
FEATURED PICK
Zack Cimini
CONTRARIAN WITH CHUTZPAH
TUE 10/29
ARIZONA +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 10/31 | 8:20 PM EDT
The San Francisco 49ers continue to show new levels of excellence. Last week’s statement win over the Carolina Panthers was all the more impressive as they handled an above-average team coming off a bye week. With Thursday's quick turnaround, I expect San Fran to try to run the ball and wear down the Cardinals. Yet, look for Arizona to match the 49ers offensively and keep this within the number. Grab Arizona.
4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS | +66
6-0-1 IN LAST 7 ARI ATS PICKS | +605
Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
12:36 PM
BAYLOR -18.5
WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
West Virginia smacked the Bears last year and this game is all about the revenge factor. West Virginia is struggling, having dropped three in a row and allowed an average of 44 per contest. The Bears are 4-0 at home and average 44 points per game, lead the conference in sacks and turnover margin. West Virginia is just 119th in the nation in total offense and have a really banged up defense. .
11-6 IN LAST 17 CFB PICKS | +438
FEATURED PICK
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
MON 10/28
BAYLOR -17.5
WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
When West Virginia loses, it tends to lose big. The Mountaineers have been bulldozed by 28 and 31 in their road losses and fell by 22 at home. The Bears have a net advantage of 30 points per game based on comparative scoring offense and defense. Baylor has covered in eight of its past 12 under second-year coach Matt Rhule. With Oklahoma’s unexpected loss last Saturday, Baylor will be inspired to win decisively.
18-9 IN LAST 27 CFB PICKS | +807
4-0 IN LAST 4 WVU ATS PICKS | +400
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
12:36 PM
BAYLOR -18.5
WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
West Virginia smacked the Bears last year and this game is all about the revenge factor. West Virginia is struggling, having dropped three in a row and allowed an average of 44 per contest. The Bears are 4-0 at home and average 44 points per game, lead the conference in sacks and turnover margin. West Virginia is just 119th in the nation in total offense and have a really banged up defense. .
11-6 IN LAST 17 CFB PICKS | +438
FEATURED PICK
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
MON 10/28
BAYLOR -17.5
WEST VIRGINIA @ BAYLOR | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
When West Virginia loses, it tends to lose big. The Mountaineers have been bulldozed by 28 and 31 in their road losses and fell by 22 at home. The Bears have a net advantage of 30 points per game based on comparative scoring offense and defense. Baylor has covered in eight of its past 12 under second-year coach Matt Rhule. With Oklahoma’s unexpected loss last Saturday, Baylor will be inspired to win decisively.
18-9 IN LAST 27 CFB PICKS | +807
4-0 IN LAST 4 WVU ATS PICKS | +400
Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
5:23 PM
UNDER 44
GA. SOUTHERN @ APP. ST. | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
Appalachian State clearly has the more explosive offense in this matchup, but extremely high winds in Boone on Thursday night will inhibit its ability to throw. That means we're going to see a lot of runs from both teams, and both defenses have proven to be adept at slowing down the run. All of which should lead to a lower-scoring affair with limited possessions for both sides.
10-4 IN LAST 14 CFB PICKS | +622
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
5:23 PM
UNDER 44
GA. SOUTHERN @ APP. ST. | 10/31 | 8:00 PM EDT
Appalachian State clearly has the more explosive offense in this matchup, but extremely high winds in Boone on Thursday night will inhibit its ability to throw. That means we're going to see a lot of runs from both teams, and both defenses have proven to be adept at slowing down the run. All of which should lead to a lower-scoring affair with limited possessions for both sides.
10-4 IN LAST 14 CFB PICKS | +622
Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
12:54 PM
MIAMI -6.5
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 10/31 | 7:00 PM EDT
The outlook for this game has completely changed with Trae Young (ankle) out. He suffered the injury when these same two teams met Tuesday, a contest that the Heat won by 15 points in Miami. While this game being in Atlanta does help the Hawks, the loss of Young can’t be overstated. To make matters worse, the Hawks really don’t have a solid backup point guard who can step into the starting five, likely leaving DeAndre’ Bembry to help facilitate the offense. I’ll take the Heat to win and cover.
8-5 IN LAST 13 NBA ATS PICKS | +252
6-3 IN LAST 9 ATL ATS PICKS | +270
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +90
NBA SPECIALIST
12:54 PM
MIAMI -6.5
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 10/31 | 7:00 PM EDT
The outlook for this game has completely changed with Trae Young (ankle) out. He suffered the injury when these same two teams met Tuesday, a contest that the Heat won by 15 points in Miami. While this game being in Atlanta does help the Hawks, the loss of Young can’t be overstated. To make matters worse, the Hawks really don’t have a solid backup point guard who can step into the starting five, likely leaving DeAndre’ Bembry to help facilitate the offense. I’ll take the Heat to win and cover.
8-5 IN LAST 13 NBA ATS PICKS | +252
6-3 IN LAST 9 ATL ATS PICKS | +270
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +90
Pete Blackburn
CBS SPORTS LEAD NHL WRITER
4:18 PM
VEGAS -1.5
MONTREAL @ VEGAS | 10/31 | 10:00 PM EDT
The Canadiens traveled to Vegas overnight after a win in Arizona on Wednesday. They're on the tail end of a back-to-back with their backup goaltender in net going up against a rested Golden Knights team that is among the league's best and most dangerous offensively. Vegas should have the better legs and, as a result, should be able to do some damage on the scoreboard. Take the Golden Knights against the spread (+107).
14-7 LAST 21 NHL SIDES | +998
CBS SPORTS LEAD NHL WRITER
4:18 PM
VEGAS -1.5
MONTREAL @ VEGAS | 10/31 | 10:00 PM EDT
The Canadiens traveled to Vegas overnight after a win in Arizona on Wednesday. They're on the tail end of a back-to-back with their backup goaltender in net going up against a rested Golden Knights team that is among the league's best and most dangerous offensively. Vegas should have the better legs and, as a result, should be able to do some damage on the scoreboard. Take the Golden Knights against the spread (+107).
14-7 LAST 21 NHL SIDES | +998
DR. CHUCK
HOCKEY PLAYS
Game: (14) Nashville Predators In Regulation
Date/Time: Oct 31 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Nashville Predators In Regulation +107
View Analysis
**This play is on the Preds to win in regulation tonight at home to the Calgary Flames. This play may be shown as "in regulation" or "no OT" or maybe even -0.5 goals....all should be right around this plus line!**
Pekka Rinne is as good as they come...he is undefeated on the season at 7-0-1 in his 8 starts, is off 2 straight shut outs, and has allowed 1 less goal on the season than the 8 starts in goal he has this year. He leads the league in our top used goalie anayltic of dSV% with 2.56 (an excellent number only topping his NHL best SV% period). He also has a nearly 5 GSAA with 4.84 on the season. Rittich for the Flames comes in with a -1 dSV% and -2.42 GSAA on the year in addition to being on the road and his offense is poor on the power play, poor at getting power play, and are on a 13-28 trend following their recent losses. Additional trends used for this play include a 6-14 and 18-37 for the Flames.
The Flames are the 5th worst overall team with regard to PDO on the power play, and while Rinne's one weakness is the power play for opponents and drops both his analytics to the negative side, but the Flames are not the side that's going to affect Rinne in that way....and if the goalie wasn't enough...Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are close to the best defensive pairing in the league....leading most in Corsi for and C+/- on the season and provide an excellent duo in front of Rinne making it even harder for poor offensive sides to get into the net.
The Flames will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and 7th on the season. In the previous 6 road games they have scored 8 total goals, are 1-5 on the road and are off 2 straight 2-1 losses with meager offense
HOCKEY PLAYS
Game: (14) Nashville Predators In Regulation
Date/Time: Oct 31 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Nashville Predators In Regulation +107
View Analysis
**This play is on the Preds to win in regulation tonight at home to the Calgary Flames. This play may be shown as "in regulation" or "no OT" or maybe even -0.5 goals....all should be right around this plus line!**
Pekka Rinne is as good as they come...he is undefeated on the season at 7-0-1 in his 8 starts, is off 2 straight shut outs, and has allowed 1 less goal on the season than the 8 starts in goal he has this year. He leads the league in our top used goalie anayltic of dSV% with 2.56 (an excellent number only topping his NHL best SV% period). He also has a nearly 5 GSAA with 4.84 on the season. Rittich for the Flames comes in with a -1 dSV% and -2.42 GSAA on the year in addition to being on the road and his offense is poor on the power play, poor at getting power play, and are on a 13-28 trend following their recent losses. Additional trends used for this play include a 6-14 and 18-37 for the Flames.
The Flames are the 5th worst overall team with regard to PDO on the power play, and while Rinne's one weakness is the power play for opponents and drops both his analytics to the negative side, but the Flames are not the side that's going to affect Rinne in that way....and if the goalie wasn't enough...Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are close to the best defensive pairing in the league....leading most in Corsi for and C+/- on the season and provide an excellent duo in front of Rinne making it even harder for poor offensive sides to get into the net.
The Flames will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and 7th on the season. In the previous 6 road games they have scored 8 total goals, are 1-5 on the road and are off 2 straight 2-1 losses with meager offense
DR. CHUCK
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (565) San Antonio Spurs at (566) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Oct 31 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 226.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Spurs open this season at 3-0 and with that came a 3-0 record to the Over....with an average game total over 233 points. In this spot, the trend for the home team on no rest back at home for a game against a team with rest...with a total 220 or higher, the Over is 10-5 with an average of about 227 per game in this trend.
The Clippers played in Utah last night and gave Kawhi the night off...and much like will occur on a regular basis, when he sits and PG is injured the team is largely going to be overmatched against playoff type teams such as Utah...and on the road. When at full strength, though, no team really is even in the realm of how good the Clips have been on the offensive end. The EFG% on the young season is currently 58.4, and almost 3 full points higher than the next closest competitor. The Warriors finished the '18-19 season with a 56%, also the league leader from last season. This stat for Doc's team also includes the mere 52% they put up against the Jazz just last night!
Neither team has been really amped up on the defensive end, and the def.efficiency rating shows this, with the Clippers near the bottom of the league through 5 games, and with the Spurs only playing 3 home games thus far, are just right in the middle at 15th on the defensive end. Flipping over to the offensive end however, we have the #2 and #5 ranked offensive efficiency squads in the NBA. Additionally on the front of the Clippers just flat out slaughtering when they possess the ball...they also have a 123% true shooting rating, 6 full points higher than the next closest team, and again the Warriors finished last season with the best rating at 118% true shooting percentage.
As far as further securing an Over play, neither team is particularly turnover prone on offense nor are they particularly great at forcing opponents to waste possessions. In fact, the Spurs (who have only played in the friendly confines thus far!) are the worst team so far this season at forcing opponents to turnover their possessions...merely a 10% rate of turnovers per offensive play for the opponent thus far. The Spurs do avoid fouling on defense and actually have the lowest rate in the NBA so far at just 16% fouls per defensive play, however the Clippers are the opposite in this regard, fouling nearly 23% of the defensive plays on their end.
All this in addition to the low number and the reverse movement makes this quite a bargain of a price at 226!
If this line has already moved a good deal I would play it maybe slightly differently...
4% at 226 to 228
3% at 228.5 to 229
2% at 230 to 231
I would not recommend playing this above these numbers....
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (565) San Antonio Spurs at (566) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Oct 31 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 226.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Spurs open this season at 3-0 and with that came a 3-0 record to the Over....with an average game total over 233 points. In this spot, the trend for the home team on no rest back at home for a game against a team with rest...with a total 220 or higher, the Over is 10-5 with an average of about 227 per game in this trend.
The Clippers played in Utah last night and gave Kawhi the night off...and much like will occur on a regular basis, when he sits and PG is injured the team is largely going to be overmatched against playoff type teams such as Utah...and on the road. When at full strength, though, no team really is even in the realm of how good the Clips have been on the offensive end. The EFG% on the young season is currently 58.4, and almost 3 full points higher than the next closest competitor. The Warriors finished the '18-19 season with a 56%, also the league leader from last season. This stat for Doc's team also includes the mere 52% they put up against the Jazz just last night!
Neither team has been really amped up on the defensive end, and the def.efficiency rating shows this, with the Clippers near the bottom of the league through 5 games, and with the Spurs only playing 3 home games thus far, are just right in the middle at 15th on the defensive end. Flipping over to the offensive end however, we have the #2 and #5 ranked offensive efficiency squads in the NBA. Additionally on the front of the Clippers just flat out slaughtering when they possess the ball...they also have a 123% true shooting rating, 6 full points higher than the next closest team, and again the Warriors finished last season with the best rating at 118% true shooting percentage.
As far as further securing an Over play, neither team is particularly turnover prone on offense nor are they particularly great at forcing opponents to waste possessions. In fact, the Spurs (who have only played in the friendly confines thus far!) are the worst team so far this season at forcing opponents to turnover their possessions...merely a 10% rate of turnovers per offensive play for the opponent thus far. The Spurs do avoid fouling on defense and actually have the lowest rate in the NBA so far at just 16% fouls per defensive play, however the Clippers are the opposite in this regard, fouling nearly 23% of the defensive plays on their end.
All this in addition to the low number and the reverse movement makes this quite a bargain of a price at 226!
If this line has already moved a good deal I would play it maybe slightly differently...
4% at 226 to 228
3% at 228.5 to 229
2% at 230 to 231
I would not recommend playing this above these numbers....
