Thursday Service Play Thread 10/22/2020

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5-Star Giants +4 over Eagles - The Giants are 19-0 ATS (+10.95 ppg) vs a divisional opponent that has at least one win on the season and has forced fewer than 1.2 turnovers and has allowed 70-plus rushing yards per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:

team=Giants and DIV and oA(o:TO)<1.2 and o:wins>0 and oA(o:RY)>70 and season >= 2004

In these 19 divisional games, the Giants have never lost by more than a field goal, and this includes their 37-34 loss to the Cowboys getting 7.5 in week five this season.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are a disappointing 0-15 ATS (-12.83 ppg) as a favorite off a home loss in which they allowed at least five third down conversions, as long as they are not playing at a neutral site. The SDQL text is:

team=Eagles and F and p:HL and po:3DM>=5 and site!=neutral and season>=2010

Despite being the favorite in every game, the Eagles have not produced a single straight up win in their last fourteen tries. The closest they game was a 23-23 tie against the Bengals in week three this season as a four-point favorite.

Last season, the Eagles were 9-7 and the Giants were 7-9. This season, the Giants have allowed 25.33 ppg. This activates a league-wide, multi-season system that suggests the Eagles will have a hard time covering this number. Home teams that had at least two more wins than their opponent the previous regular season and are facing a team that has allowed 23-plus ppg and is not on a two-plus game losing streak are 0-21 ATS on grass off a home loss in which they committed at least as many turnovers than their opponent. The SDQL text is:

H and surface = grass and p:HL and PRSW - o:pRSW >= 2 and oA(o
tongue.gif
oints)>=23 and o:streak>-2 and p:TOM>=0 and date >= 20101200

This is a huge game for the Giants. They are on national TV and they are facing a divisional opponent. A win here will put them in second place in the division and they host the division-leading Cowboys next week. Philadelphia has one win this season and it was over the injury-riddled 49ers. They have been favored three times in 2020 and did not win any of those games. The points are the play.
 

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Matt Severance
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider NFL) - Giants/Eagles Over 45
 

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