Thursday Service Play Thread 1/01/2026

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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FOOTBALL SELECTIONS from Joe Gavazzi

HOME TEAMS in caps
_______________________

Thursday, Jan 1st

ORANGE BOWL Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL
3% Texas Tech (+2) Noon ET

What a way to kick off the New Year with 2 of the most exciting teams of the season facing off in the CFP. Oregon HC Lanning has far more experience than his counterpart HC McGuire thanks to his experience at Georgia and Oregon. He also has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this year in Dante Moore who enters this game with a 28:8 ratio. Though we have NO defining “3D” or “4D” team in this matchup, it is of major concern that the Ducks allowed 509 yards in their Round #1 win over James Madison last week. Each team enters on lengthy winning streaks with matching 12-1 SU records. Tech, however, was where the money is with their 11-1 ATS mark. It is an amazingly improved defense that has led Tech to where they are today. But that’s what $28 million dollars of Permian Basin Oil and Gas money will do when you want to buy a CFB team in this day and age. It is reported that almost $10 million dollars of that money was spent on a defense that has been worth every penny allowing just 11 PPG. The only loss of the season for TTRR was when QB Morton (67% C, 22:11 ratio) was unavailable for the Arizona State game. Other than that, ALL VICTORIES WERE BY 22 OR MORE POINTS. “Guns up” Red Raiders as TTRR advances to the next round with this mini upset.

ROSE BOWL Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA
3% Indiana (-7) 4:00 PM ET

It has been a peripatetic Alabama team in the 2nd year of the HC DeBoer tenure. To wit there was the season opening loss to Florida State, a defeat at Oklahoma, an Iron Bowl escape against rival Auburn, and an embarrassing loss to Georgia in the SEC Title Game, 28-7. Last week, it appeared they had a negative carryover effect when they trailed Oklahoma 17-0 in their revenge game. They rallied to victory which allowed them to advance and face the #1 team in the nation. DeBoer does bring a nice pedigree to the sidelines with his 11-3 ATS dog log. It also must be respected that the Crimson Tide beat 4 ranked teams this season. If they do so today, it will be in large part because QB Simpson, with a 28:5 ratio, was able to overcome the Tide’s pathetic 104/3.3 run game. Indiana is led by HC Cignetti who has led the greatest turnaround of any program in recent memory. They capped off a 13-0 SU perfect season by defeating Ohio State for the BIG 10 Title. Main reason for this selection is their “4D” defensive advantage, some indicators by a wide margin. It is, however, never easy to play on a Heisman Trophy winning player such as QB Mendoza who has a 73% C and 38:7 ratio. Though the Hoosiers met every test, it should be noted that 3 of their 13 wins were by 6 or less points.

SUGAR BOWL Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
5% Georgia (-6.5) 8:00 PM ET

The Bulldogs have dominant edges in every defensive category making this one of the stronger “4D” plays of the Bowl Season. In addition, there is a clear edge on the sideline with post season veteran HC Smart against the Ole Miss Interim HC Golding. In the first meeting between these two, the Rebels led 35-26 before the Bulldogs used one of their patented 4th quarter rallies to emerge with a 43-35 victory. IT WAS THE ONLY LOSS FOR OLE MISS making this a legitimate revenge outing in the CFP rematch. Since entering as a starter in the early weeks of the season, Rebel’s QB Chambills has been phenomenal with a 67% C and 19:3 ratio. His counterpart is Georgia QB Stanton with a solid 24:7 ratio of his own. We are backing the Bulldogs with the meaningful advantage of the “4D System” and the notable coaching experience edge to outweigh the Ole Miss revenge motive. Regarding our coaching advantage in this matchup, I note that the Georgia defense has returned to its norm. In the last 6 games, since they played Ole Miss, the defense has allowed only 11.7 PPG. It is even better in the last 4 in which they have allowed an average of just 7 PPG,226 YPG, including just 32 RYPG. From a longer term perspective, consider Smarts record in Post Season play of 7-1 SU with wins of 19 PPG on average.

Next release: Friday, Jan 2nd by 11:00 AM ET

WONDER WHAT IT MEANS?
Abbreviations Legend

SU Straight Up CON Conference
ATS Against the Spread NC Non-conference
AFP Away from the Pointspread DIA-DIA Dogs In Action Do It Again
FCB Final Crushing Blow DDF Double Digit Favorite
HF Home Favorite LHG Last Home Game
HD Home Dog MNF Monday Night Football
RF Road Favorite MRT Most Recent Trend
RD Road Dog PF Points For
HC Head Coach PA Points Against
OL Offensive Line REV Revenge
RY Running Yards LSR Last Season Revenge
PY Passing Yards Vs Versus
TY Total Yards * New Coach, QB
LY Last Year ≥ Greater than or equal to
LT Lifetime ≤ Less than or equal to
RTF Recruit, Transfer and Frosh Rating KoT Keep on Trackin’
RPR Returning Production Rating 200 Club (see KoT)
EXP Experience Rating Double Rush (see KoT)
PR Power Rating SA SU/ATS
SUFL Straight up favorite off loss SUDW Straight up dog off win
Peter Principle – People rise to their level of incompetence WTF Wrong Team Favored
SOS Strength of Schedule (Sagarin)
 

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Porter Picks / NCAAF Playoffs

Indiana -6.5 (7u)
Texas Tech +3 (5u)
Ole Miss +6.5 (4u)
Oregon vs Texas Tech under 51.5 (2u)
 

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