Justin Perri
FEATURED PICK
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rays have won 14 of their 15 games against the Orioles this year, and the last three have been by a combined 21 runs. There seems to be little hope that the O’s win this afternoon, but I would never take a -360 line so we will play this on the run line at -175. The Orioles have not covered in any of their last 10 games. I will also be playing a small bit on the alternate run lines to get some better prices. For example, -2.5 is -133 at Caesars.
L.A. ANGELS @ DETROIT | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: I’ve been betting on weather-correlated plays all season, and they’ve done well. The weather at Comerica Park should have a solid impact on the Over as the air density is a bit lower than normal and the wind is blowing out. We also have a sub-par pitching matchup, with Angels LHP Jose Quintana making his first start since May as he opposes Detroit RHP Matt Manning. Quintana had a 7.22 ERA through nine starts this year before getting hurt and likely won't work too many innings. Manning has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 20 innings after a pretty good start. Los Angeles is 37-20 on the Over when made the favorite. I like this to be a double-digit game.
FEATURED PICK
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rays have won 14 of their 15 games against the Orioles this year, and the last three have been by a combined 21 runs. There seems to be little hope that the O’s win this afternoon, but I would never take a -360 line so we will play this on the run line at -175. The Orioles have not covered in any of their last 10 games. I will also be playing a small bit on the alternate run lines to get some better prices. For example, -2.5 is -133 at Caesars.
L.A. ANGELS @ DETROIT | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: I’ve been betting on weather-correlated plays all season, and they’ve done well. The weather at Comerica Park should have a solid impact on the Over as the air density is a bit lower than normal and the wind is blowing out. We also have a sub-par pitching matchup, with Angels LHP Jose Quintana making his first start since May as he opposes Detroit RHP Matt Manning. Quintana had a 7.22 ERA through nine starts this year before getting hurt and likely won't work too many innings. Manning has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 20 innings after a pretty good start. Los Angeles is 37-20 on the Over when made the favorite. I like this to be a double-digit game.
MLB Sharp Action
1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (61-61) at Detroit Tigers (58-64)
The Angels have won the first two games of this series, taking the opener 8-2 as + 130 road dogs and then winning again last night 3-1 as -130 road favorites behind a stellar two-way performance by Shohei Ohtani, who is now -1200 to win the AL MVP at BetMGM (92.3% implied probability). In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12 ERA) and Detroit counters with righty Matt Manning (3-5, 6.10 ERA), who was selected 9th overall by the Tigers in 2016. This line opened with the Angels listed as a -125 road favorite and the Tigers a + 115 home dog. The public is riding the Angels to complete the sweep, yet we've seen Los Angeles fall from -125 to -110. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Tigers (+ 115 to + 110). Essentially, the game is moving toward a pick'em. Home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 214-129 (62.4%) this season. Detroit also has value as a short dog with a high total. Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities.
2:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (68-53) at Chicago White Sox (71-50)
The White Sox have dominated the Athletics so far this series, going a perfect 3-0 and outscoring Oakland 17-4 along the way. In this afternoon's series finale, the Athletics start lefty Cole Irvin (8-11, 3.52 ERA) and the White Sox trot out righty Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -135 home favorite and the Athletics a + 125 road dog. Wiseguys are riding the hot hand and backing the White Sox to complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -160. Non-division home favorites are 381-239 (61.5%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites between -150 and -175 are 86-45 (65.5%). Chicago is 37-19 (66.1%) as a home favorite. The White Sox have also mashed lefties this year, going 21-12. Chicago is 61-33 as a favorite. Oakland is 15-20 as a dog. The Southsiders will once again lean on their offense. Chicago is hitting .251, which ranks 6th-best in MLB. Oakland is hitting .237, which ranks 21st. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. The under is 2-0-1 this series.
7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) at St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 2-0 as -160 road favorites and winning again on Wednesday 6-4 as -125 road favorites. Milwaukee has now won four straight and eight of their last nine. The Brewers are tied with the Rays for the 3rd-best record in baseball, trailing only the Giants and Dodgers. Milwaukee is + 350 to win the National League and + 900 to win the World Series. In tonight's series finale, the Brewers send out ace righty Brandon Woodruff (7-6, 2.18 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with veteran lefty Jon Lester (4-6, 5.32 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -177 road favorite and St. Louis a + 162 home dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better, hotter team with the glaring starting pitching advantage, steaming Milwaukee up from -177 to -200. Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 212-139 (60.4%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 115-39 (74.7%), Milwaukee is 56-36 as a favorite. St. Louis is 24-35 as a dog. The Brewers are + 117 in run differential. The Cardinals are -25.
1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (61-61) at Detroit Tigers (58-64)
The Angels have won the first two games of this series, taking the opener 8-2 as + 130 road dogs and then winning again last night 3-1 as -130 road favorites behind a stellar two-way performance by Shohei Ohtani, who is now -1200 to win the AL MVP at BetMGM (92.3% implied probability). In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12 ERA) and Detroit counters with righty Matt Manning (3-5, 6.10 ERA), who was selected 9th overall by the Tigers in 2016. This line opened with the Angels listed as a -125 road favorite and the Tigers a + 115 home dog. The public is riding the Angels to complete the sweep, yet we've seen Los Angeles fall from -125 to -110. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Tigers (+ 115 to + 110). Essentially, the game is moving toward a pick'em. Home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 214-129 (62.4%) this season. Detroit also has value as a short dog with a high total. Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities.
2:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (68-53) at Chicago White Sox (71-50)
The White Sox have dominated the Athletics so far this series, going a perfect 3-0 and outscoring Oakland 17-4 along the way. In this afternoon's series finale, the Athletics start lefty Cole Irvin (8-11, 3.52 ERA) and the White Sox trot out righty Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -135 home favorite and the Athletics a + 125 road dog. Wiseguys are riding the hot hand and backing the White Sox to complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -160. Non-division home favorites are 381-239 (61.5%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites between -150 and -175 are 86-45 (65.5%). Chicago is 37-19 (66.1%) as a home favorite. The White Sox have also mashed lefties this year, going 21-12. Chicago is 61-33 as a favorite. Oakland is 15-20 as a dog. The Southsiders will once again lean on their offense. Chicago is hitting .251, which ranks 6th-best in MLB. Oakland is hitting .237, which ranks 21st. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. The under is 2-0-1 this series.
7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) at St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 2-0 as -160 road favorites and winning again on Wednesday 6-4 as -125 road favorites. Milwaukee has now won four straight and eight of their last nine. The Brewers are tied with the Rays for the 3rd-best record in baseball, trailing only the Giants and Dodgers. Milwaukee is + 350 to win the National League and + 900 to win the World Series. In tonight's series finale, the Brewers send out ace righty Brandon Woodruff (7-6, 2.18 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with veteran lefty Jon Lester (4-6, 5.32 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -177 road favorite and St. Louis a + 162 home dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better, hotter team with the glaring starting pitching advantage, steaming Milwaukee up from -177 to -200. Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 212-139 (60.4%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 115-39 (74.7%), Milwaukee is 56-36 as a favorite. St. Louis is 24-35 as a dog. The Brewers are + 117 in run differential. The Cardinals are -25.
Matt Severance
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 08/19 | 2:05 PM EDT
TEXAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Seattle pitcher Chris Flexen has a bloated road ERA, but that's largely because of two early-season blowups. He has been fine away from home since and is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA this year vs. Texas -- all in Seattle. The Mariners are 24-18 (.571) in 42 day games this season. It's Spencer Howard (0-3, 5.61) for the Rangers. Texas has just three wins in its past 14 games and is 1-8 in its past nine Thursday games. Seattle is -135 on the moneyline and Texas -135 on the runline, so since they are the same price I'll take the +1.5 safety net even though I expect the Mariners to win -- just not by more than a run. They also have a big series in Houston starting Friday.
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 08/19 | 2:05 PM EDT
TEXAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Seattle pitcher Chris Flexen has a bloated road ERA, but that's largely because of two early-season blowups. He has been fine away from home since and is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA this year vs. Texas -- all in Seattle. The Mariners are 24-18 (.571) in 42 day games this season. It's Spencer Howard (0-3, 5.61) for the Rangers. Texas has just three wins in its past 14 games and is 1-8 in its past nine Thursday games. Seattle is -135 on the moneyline and Texas -135 on the runline, so since they are the same price I'll take the +1.5 safety net even though I expect the Mariners to win -- just not by more than a run. They also have a big series in Houston starting Friday.
