Patrick McIrish said:
Ice, really good to see you hanging around down here. I know you set your own lines and I know you like to hit the overnights, I was checking your plays out before you took the break. Anyway it can only help us to have your stuff down here being shared again, thanks.
Was going to ask you earlier, what tools are you using now to cap these games? You're not doing everything by hand are you?
feels good to be back. Kind of back to what I was doing earlier in the year(when I had my hot streak) and that is just concentrating on sides. I think I have a good feel for them. I agree with you, I think it will be alot more fun in this forum. It got lonely in the tracker forum. This should help. Hopefully I will have something to add to others as well.
I use 3 factors when capping my games: 1) I use a team ranking which I get from espn.com, a stat they call RPI (it takes into effect the teams strength of schedule and runs scored and allowed. Kind of like the RPI the college hoops teams use. 2) I use the teams on-base avg plus slugging pct (ops) and weight it 2/3 versus the opponenets pitching arm (lefty/righty) and 1/3 overall and 3) I have a pitchers power ranking number based on a few important stats I like for pitchers (k's, bb's and hr allowed for 9 innings).
I than take each category and compare to oppnents number and come up with what pct of time a team would beat the other team in each category. I than average out the 3 categories and come up with what pct of time a team would beat another team and than look at money line chart and put a "price" on the team and add around 17 cents for the home team. Sounds complicated but I am a fairly good with numbers. It works for me.
WOW. You asked so I told. And to answer your question Yes I do it ALL with a piece of paper,pen and calculator. The worst part is I sort of enjoy it. I stopped because i was doing totals.
It isn't as difficult as it sounds but surprisngly fairly accurrate. I also add in some intangiables and look for a certain difference. I did it 2 years ago for over 2 months and I won over 3% ROI. I have tweaked it since. The hardest part is the 1st game of the series because of I have to re-do all the categories in each match up. When the series starts just mess with the pitchers numbers. I know I could add more if I add more time/energy/computer savvy but it gives me a good barometer and has done a solid job over alot of plays (hope I didn't jinx myself)
