Thursday: No Regrets

[ofred]

3-1, + 6 units Wednesday. I'm glad I added an extra unit on the SD-Seattle game, but I also felt I could have bet it higher. Playing it way above 5 units would be poor money mgt, which I have finally learned to control the past few years. Still….. it was tempting, so tempting that I jumped on it the moment the line came out in the morning. Of course, the under 6 was just as good.


Oakland -1 (-116) 4 units. Am I going to blow the larger part of Wednesday's winnings here? I doubt it and here's why: The Red Sox had a game Wednesday, then fly out in the evening for 5-6 hours to the West Coast. That kind of trip does things mentally and physically to a person. I should know since I've made it myself many times. Then they play a game at 10 PM EST, which should end about 1 AM EST. They face the best pitcher on the A's(now that Sonny Gray has been off a little). A tough lefty with a post-injury reborn career. The Red Sox are a weak ass hitting team if you hadn't noticed. Here are their run totals the past 5 games: 2,2,1,2,2….. then they beat up on Masterson, who has been awful…. got 3 runs off of Tomlin(who is below average career wise)…then 0,1,0…. beat the Tiger's BP…. then lost the 5 before that in a row. Many of these games were played in Boston, Cleveland and Baltimore, 3 good hitting venues. Against mediocre pitching like the Twins, Cleveland and Baltimore, and the Tiger BP. Kazmir has been brutally sharp and I can't remember the last LHP the Red Sox battered. The A's BP has been a little less effective lately, but their top 3 guys are fine.

The A's face the much reduced Jake Peavy, a likable guy who gets value because he once was great and is a likable guy. But Peavy is shaky even in his better starts. And his last 6-7 starts have been way worse than shaky. 44 IPs, 59 hits, 29 runs. He can't use his fastball effectively unless his command is perfect. The A's lead the majors vs. RHP in both runs and OBP. In fact their walk-K ratio is very impressive vs. RHP. They hit in the clutch as well as any team and know how to win better than any other team in the AL. The A's also might be motivated playing the reigning world champs, and I know their fans will enjoy the moment too. This series signifies a new team emerging as the old champs begin to fade. In fact, there is even talk in Boston of trading some veteran players, not signing Lester, and going with youth the rest of the year and next year(rebuilding/ losing with an eye on the future).

Give the Sox at least one game to get used to the new time zone, rest up and then they might play their best (which isn't that good). Side Note: Kyle Gibson had his best career start Wednesday- 1 hit through 7 (in Fenway no less).

 

[ofred]

Arizona ML +115. One unit. Chase Anderson had been dominant in the minors and now is coming off of 4 very strong starts. Only 6 runs in his last 23 IPs. He throws strikes, gets ahead of hitters in the count, and uses a deadly change up to induce a whiff or a ground ball. The Brewers have never seen him. Gallardo is coming off of 2 good starts, but he rarely stays consistent. His velocity is not what it was, he is constantly tweaking his release point and mechanics and is a bit undependable.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Another great day yesterday congrats!

Its crazy how far the Boston offense has fallen. I guess Elsbury and Salty played bigger roles than thought the last few years. You wonder what went through Cherington's head not even making a play to resign those two, or atleast Salty. Oh well.

How many times do you see a team score 5 runs in a 3 game series and sweep the opposition?? Crazy game of baseball.

 

[indiana]

Fred.............nice day.............good luck today.............with your on Oak............indy

 

[LePoisson]

Nice plays Fred. Halos/tribe over still a play? Same pitchers going as yest. Day v night though..

 

[ofred]

LAA/ Cleveland- over 8.5. One unit.
. CJ Wilson has struggled badly away from Anaheim the past 2 years, and his effectiveness has been slipping anyways. But his endorsement career is blossoming. The Indians have hit lefties pretty well, and are long overdue for one of their run explosions at home. The Angels bullpen also is likely to add to the total. The Angels have been winning lately although overshadowed by the A's great season. They have hit well for going on 2 weeks, Trout is really hot, and Josh Hamilton is actually showing signs of his old self. The bottom of the lineup is also contributing. They face Masterson, who is having a nightmarish season. His patent sinker is not working, or he's not getting in the spots he needs to be. He is walking batters, then serving up hits trying to stay nearer to the strike zone. The Indians middle relievers have been spotty, and their late guys have been less effective of late. Both lineups also have power.

 

[ofred]

Another great day yesterday congrats!

Its crazy how far the Boston offense has fallen. I guess Elsbury and Salty played bigger roles than thought the last few years. You wonder what went through Cherington's head not even making a play to resign those two, or atleast Salty. Oh well.

How many times do you see a team score 5 runs in a 3 game series and sweep the opposition?? Crazy game of baseball.

They caught the Twins at a good time. The Red Sox were the ultimate overachievers at the end of last year. It seems to happen more often in baseball now. Get hot at the end of the year, and stay hot into the post-season. It was a great way to close a window that now looks closed. Things are evening out this year. The OF is a shell of what the Sox have had in recent years, Big Papi hasn't heated up and may not at his age (although he is still clutch), Carp(DL), Ellsbury and Salty are gone. The starting pitching is also not there. Bradley and Middlebrooks both have disappointed. Now they might get hot with the bats, but I still a .500 team.

 

[ofred]

Oakland -1/2 (-120) First 5. One unit.

STL -1/2 (-130) First 5. One unit. The Phillies starter has been roughed up in the early innings at times, while Shelby Miller usually pitches well in the early innings. Buchanan may get the minor league heave ho soon as he has an 8.25 road ERA, and has given up 7 HRs in just 28 IPs. 17 runs in his last 23.2 IPs. Buchanan doesn't have any + pitches and now faces a team that hits RHP fairly well. I would have taken more on this game except the Phillies have been hitting well of late, although they have faced the worst of the depleted Atlanta staff.

 

[ofred]

Chicago White Sox ML -105. One unit. This is a play that says the Twins offense has gone south. They looked awful in Fenway against average pitching and are hitting .213 for the week. Also last in slugging pct. for the week. Their last big run explosion was against the Tiger's BP, which is getting worse by the day. Quintana has been consistent for the past 2 years, almost always holding opposing teams to 2-3 runs per start. He's going through a rough patch of a couple of games, but he can break out of it against the Twinkies. The Twins start Yohan Pino, who is a 30 year old rookie soft tosser. He dominated in the minors at times, but it remains to be seen if major leaguers can be fooled as easily. Hopefully the Sox have him scouted well. The White Sox have the offense and power advantage against this slumping Twins' team. Also, Minnesota is nothing special at home at 15-17.

 

[Zo-dog]

Arizona ML +115. One unit. Chase Anderson had been dominant in the minors and now is coming off of 4 very strong starts. Only 6 runs in his last 23 IPs. He throws strikes, gets ahead of hitters in the count, and uses a deadly change up to induce a whiff or a ground ball. The Brewers have never seen him. Gallardo is coming off of 2 good starts, but he rarely stays consistent. His velocity is not what it was, he is constantly tweaking his release point and mechanics and is a bit undependable.

The money line went away from us, now a -115

 

[ofred]

LAA/ Cleveland- over 8.5. One unit.
. CJ Wilson has struggled badly away from Anaheim the past 2 years, and his effectiveness has been slipping anyways. But his endorsement career is blossoming. The Indians have hit lefties pretty well, and are long overdue for one of their run explosions at home. The Angels bullpen also is likely to add to the total. The Angels have been winning lately although overshadowed by the A's great season. They have hit well for going on 2 weeks, Trout is really hot, and Josh Hamilton is actually showing signs of his old self. The bottom of the lineup is also contributing. They face Masterson, who is having a nightmarish season. His patent sinker is not working, or he's not getting in the spots he needs to be. He is walking batters, then serving up hits trying to stay nearer to the strike zone. The Indians middle relievers have been spotty, and their late guys have been less effective of late. Both lineups also have power.

Glad I bet this down to one unit, but I should have never taken it. Day games just seem to be lower scoring, and the wind was blowing in. Poor play on my part.

Alert: Swisher just hit a grand slam to make it 5-3. Why couldn't we get some of this earlier??? Lost by a 1/2, but was lucky to be that close.

 

[ofred]

Have finally updated my YTD, and although it might not be perfectly accurate, it's pretty close. You are welcome to check it. In April I posted and was slightly below .500. Since returning on May 20th, it is 60-45, +31 units. This is NOT the YTD since April wasn't included. So from now on, I'll post it that way…From May 20th. I had a poor April and a much better return season, if that helps. Personally, I'm just glad to have time now to do the write-ups.

 

[Bigtomdawg]

Gl Fred, LETS GO A'S!!

Kazmir had one slip up and it was a 2 run shot.. but hes pitching great other then that pitch