Thursday night game... Let's have this discussion.

[3pointdog]

One would assume Vegas does not put out incorrect lines very often. This game opened at Buff -3. And now sits at Jets -1 and -1.5 at some shops. I have heard this is all public money. Not a sharp move on the jets. With all the injuries Buffalo has and suspensions, would Vegas really "miss" this line by a 4+ point move??? 75+% on Jets.

I have to to wonder too....it's also at Buff...?? I think Buff is the play here....

interested in in hearing your thoughts.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I won't be playing this game, but wondering why the line moved 4 points? Some big Vegas player lay a million on the Jets?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

With the Bills playing the Cards in week 3, they either win tomorrow or go 0-3 after week 3 IMO.......

 

[wizard1183]

I agree TCG

 

[TheGiems2k]

Im on bills big bet for me....

 

[Enfuego]

Rex Ryan owns Fitzy.

 

[DertyD]

All BUF points true, but similar with NYJ too. If they lose this game they may go 0-6! They'll probably be dogs in the next 4.

NYJ have a slight coaching advantage. Better front 7. stepping down in class from CIN to BUF is relatively an easier opponent due to talent level. I'm not convinced NYJ will win and cover, this is a division game and they know each other very well.

BUF was at BAL, and despite how they may have looked, I'm not convinced BAL is a top 10 defense like NYJ. If BUF struggled vs BAL's defense, I think they will not be more successful vs NYJ. That's saying a lot since they had only 160 yards vs BAL.

Thats hard to match, 160 yards! Ok, even if BUF gets 260-320 yards, that still isn't a good day in general. Turnovers are always a key, and yes Fitzpatrick has a poor winning % and TD/INT ratio vs all Ryan teams. Don't forget BUF QB also has to face NYJ Defense. Turnovers will be close to equal, +1 or -1 for either team.

NYJ win in close one, all heck breaks loose thereafter for coach Ryan as he's on the hot seat already with ARZ on deck. NYJ have little to celebrate with: KC, SEA, PIT and ARZ coming next! NYJ need this one because weeks 3-6 are TOUGH!

NYJ urgency makes the difference. 23-17

 

[cashducats]

I Like bills because these are basically the same teams from last year and bills swept them. Also, prime time short week home opener for bills and jets may not have enough time to get their mind right on a short week after blowing a close game to bengals. Haven't played it yet but prob will be.

 

[r.a.]

Bills have won five straight vs. the Jets ... Rex loves to get Bills ready for his ex employer.

 

[READYTOROLL]

Trends and streaks - That's about all that Buff has over NYJ. If that's what Buff backers are relying on then good luck with that kids. Loser!@#0

Coaching, O and D lines, and QB all point to Jets. JETS win.cheersgif

 

[powerz]

I have been going back in forth on this play...here is what I am grappling with.

Spring line BUff -2
Opening Line this week Buff -3
My Line with home field advantage BUff -1

Why did the books move the line up on BUFF

The line is now NYJ -1 and -1.5 in spots that is a 4 point move with over 70% of the action on the Jets....will probably go higher today.

That's too much of a move ....

The only reason I am looking at this game is for MY SU Pool - I played the BILLS to win SU. Will check the kick off line and may put in a action play much more interested in the HOU & CINNCY game.

GL fella Posterz - This is what the RX is all about and exchange of thoughts and ideas

 

[justanobserver]

IDK, I honestly see the Jets blowing them out pretty easily. If this Bills team can only score 7 points against the Ravens then they have zero chance in this game. But i have been wrong before.

 

[Saints2016]

I sort of agree JAO. However, that's also what Vegas want us to look at. See they only score 7 against the Ravens, now they will lose by 20 vs the JETS. Short term trends are tricky.

 

[chonce]

I am on Buffalo. I will re-post my explanatons as to why from my thread, but the short of it is: to me the line should be Buffalo +2.5 or so. So getting a PK (the line I bought jn at) seems like a bargain. Rex beat the Jets twice last year, once on a Thursday and another time in a game that would've put the jets in the playoffs.

Rex gets up for these games. An emotional home opener after a loss? Check? Public money on the Jets (if 3-pointdog is right, I made my pick without much regard to consensus, honesty) that is all the better.

Rex is horrible after a win. His SU record is so bad (I forget the exact data, but it was like 5-22 SU after a win at one point recently). So I like to fade Rex AFTER a win.

The Jets aren't a bad team at all, but they are just a hair better than Buffalo I think. And last week Fitz seemed out of sync with Marshall. He started without mini-camps and most of camp. They aren't in synch. Fitz is 2-8 vs Rex.

I will post some more of my rationale. Main point: I think the Bills and Jets should be close to a PK on a neutral field (maybe NYJ 1 at most). So at home? I will take it. Also, while Watkins may be out, Revis is losing his big-play ability swiftly.

 

[chonce]

IDK, I honestly see the Jets blowing them out pretty easily. If this Bills team can only score 7 points against the Ravens then they have zero chance in this game. But i have been wrong before.

I understand the sentiment but I try hard to ignore (or mostly dismiss) 1-week trends. In fact, if a team looks horrendous one week, often there is value in them the next week. The Bills aren't as bad as they looked last week. Likewise, Pitt is probably not going to score 35 on the road each week. And STL sucks, but they aren't THAT bad. And SF isn't that decent.

So, I don't put too much stock in Buffalo laying an egg in week 1. IS that any more relevant than when these two teams played in week 17 - the Jets had a playoff spot on the line, the Bills were out of it. And Rex still got his guys up for the game.

My .02 cents. I am not saying the Jet's can't win. These are two close teams. but I wouldn't put too much stock in one week.

 

[Twisted]

lots of good stuff in here. There's a reason Bills own the J E T S is Sexy Rexy knows Fitz cant hit 15 yrd outs or pass more than 15yds any direction with any accuracy at all. Jets D will be nullified when Ty runs for his life all night. Jets Schmets, GO BILLS!!!!
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[justanobserver]

I sort of agree JAO. However, that's also what Vegas want us to look at. See they only score 7 against the Ravens, now they will lose by 20 vs the JETS. Short term trends are tricky.

For sure thats what Vegas wants us to believe, but they are hedging that we are only overreacting to the first weeks games and what we saw, but what if what we saw was true?

 

[chonce]

Trends and streaks - That's about all that Buff has over NYJ. If that's what Buff backers are relying on then good luck with that kids. Loser!@#0

Coaching, O and D lines, and QB all point to Jets. JETS win.cheersgif

How come the Jets couldn't beat Buffalo last year at all -- even when a playoff game was at stake. Also, Taylor is considered by virtually the entire planet (including seemingly, the Jets front office who didn't offer Fitz anything close to real starter money) as the better QB. These teams are very close. I don't see where the coaching advantage comes from Rex is a flawed coach but does well vs the Jets and Fitz and after a loss. Bowles is just unproven.

It isn't some obscure trends. Buffalo won all of these matchups last year in both meetings -- now they are getting points, at home? I just think the home team should win games like this. If this line is accurate, NYJ would be a 6 or 7 point favorite at home? I think not. On a neutral field this game should be Jets -1 at most. So the value here is Buffalo. It is skwed because 75 percent of the tickets are coming in on NY.

 

[jgm4661]

Some arguments for both sides. BUF down both their starting OTs and NYJ racking up 7 sacks vs CIN is a huge concern.

 

[Twisted]

No one circles the wagons like da buffalo bills

THE END!!
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