Thursday Card with DOGS

[Boxslayer]

Had a +13 unit day yesterday. +25 units the past 6 days and yet another split on the dogs last night for a dog profit. 7 straight winning days on the dog card, and today it's another doggie dog world. Too many average teams are favored way too heavily and I am not dishing out this price on these teams. Throw these dogs a bone and at least half of them will throw you some cash in your account.

(2 units) Toronto -101 (Chacin)
(2 units) Orioles/Royals OV 10

:dogtoilet
All pups are 2 units.

Rockies -1.5 +145 (Francis)
Brewers +120 (Santos)
D-Backs +160 (Halsey)
D-Rays +150 (Kazmir)

 

[Boxslayer]

(2 units) Phillies/Cardinals OV 8.5
Bombs away for these two clubs in game 3.

 

[Boxslayer]

(1 unit) Baltimore -1.5 -105

This team is just hot and clearly better and I think they go for the sweep today now that the Yankees are creeping back into the race. These are the types of games they have to win against inferior opponents throughout the course of the year to have a shot at the pennant. Both games have been runs galore, so I can't see a 1-run game being a factor here.

 

[BIGWave]

NO idea why you took TB with the fantastic Kazmir that is 1-7 this year.............but it is looking good for you.......

You know I'm rootin' for you..................haven't seen you around the baskets for the playoffs..............

Do you traditionally play the dags hoping to split - or only if you think they will truly win......................the reason I ask is in regards to the anti-Houston play.

 

[Boxslayer]

1st off Kazmir is legit, and every game that passes he will get better. He's going to be a Cy Young in 5 years. He's got such good stuff he's in the big leagues at 21. He's got a no-no going right now. I took the D-Rays for a few reasons. #1 I am not paying -170 for Detroit, that is absolutely ridiculous. Detroit is a .500 ballclub. #2 - I don't ever pay over -160 for any team because anything can happen in baseball with bullpens etc. #3- I saw the last minute pitching change from Bonderman to Maroth and that just clinched it for me. Maroth was not ready to start. Then I saw Kazmir was +150 and that was all I needed to know about that game. Easy, Easy choice.

That's how I typically determine dogs along with some other factors. If I can find stats that back up my thoughts, great. But I don't look at traditional stats like ERA. My 1st criteria is my own gut instinct. My capping at the core is similiar to bucsfan in that I kinda just go by my feel for the game. I have a ton of knowledge of baseball being a former player and I use it to my advantage.

Do I look for the split? Not really. If I split I'm not making much money. I think every dog can win outright, obviously, because I am playing them on the moneyline. If I didn't think they could win I wouldn't bet them. Or I would just bet every dog on the card and hope for a split. I typically like to bet an even number of dogs, because at the very worst I usually get the split and make a little money. But if I hit 3 out of 4 thats my main goal. At +150, you are getting great odds. If I look at a dog and I see no chance in hell of them winning and the line for the favorite is under -160, then I have a value favorite. If the line is over -160, then I play the -1.5 run line and it usually becomes a dog and I get great value.

Baseball is my sport, basketball was for me to learn and kill time - and I actually was up over the course of the year. I'm still learning and studying the playoffs.

Hope that explains it a little better.

 

[BIGWave]

Awesome response...............thanks for taking the time Box.........

I certainly didn't intend to imply anything..........about splitting the dogs. I have just read some that go for a split and then up money. Then there is the pick going against Clemens that surprises me a bit.

Great to know some of your background.................as I said.........rootin' for ya in a big way........................

 

[Boxslayer]

Couple reasons for betting against Clemens.

1st - I bet against him my only time this year a few weeks ago and he lost. He's a great pitcher, regardless of his age, and it's tough to bet against him. But the last I saw pitchers don't go 22-0, if I said Clemens is going to go 18-6 this year, I would say thats great for him. That means he's going to lose 6 times throughout the year and maybe get a few no decisions where his team ended up winning. So, there are roughly 10 games that his team will lose when he pitches.
2nd I don't like laying anything above -160 typically on favorites, regardless of who they are and who's pitching. Houstons line is at -180.
3rd, Houston is not that good this year. Mainly because of their offense. The Astros simply do not put runs on the board, which puts a lot of pressure on Clemens to go out there and pitch lights out everytime on the mound.
4th I'm getting the D-Backs at +160 with a good young pitcher on the mound. Not many people know much about Halsey because he's young. Bookmakers, the public, etc don't know anything about Halsey, so the public figures, "Halsey? Who is that? Clemens will kill this guy." Halsey is good and the D-Backs have a better lineup. Too much pressure on Clemens to pitch perfect in this game.
And that very well may happen. Halsey may give up 9 and Cemens might throw a shutout, and all that. But it's a long-term investment and I'll win over the long haul.

If you ever have any questions about any games that I bet, don't hesitate to ask. I love talking baseball. Every bet I make is well thought out and I could go into a serious write-up on each play but I don't because it gets a little tough to type over time. But don't make the mistake that I just sit here and pick a handful of dogs and don't think about my plays and hope for a split.

I know you're not questioning me. I love talking baseball. Thanks for rooting for my plays. Best of luck on your card today.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Like your logic on the plays and how you play Baseball in general Box, good luck.

How was that 12 pack yesterday?

:drink:

 

[Boxslayer]

:drink: For some reason it just tasted a little better than usual. You know?

 

[Boxslayer]

3-2 (+2.49) units thus far. Milwaukee stranded a small village on base and lost 3-2 to split the early set of dogs.

 

[Puckhandler]

Very, very informative posts Boxslayer. I will definately be on the lookout for your baseball plays.

 

[Boxslayer]

Just got home and saw the Rockies -1.5 are in.
8th consecutive day getting at least the split on the dogs. Looking for 3-1 on the dogs with Zona up 3-0 over Clemens.

(4-3) +2.90 units thus far.

 

[Boxslayer]

Got the win in Zona. Finished up

5-3 +4.50

Went 3-1 on dogs, just missed the sweep

up roughly +31 units the past 7 days.