MINNY-3 Current line at 6:30 pacific 12/17
Dallas is leading at the half vs Boston. If Dallas wins tonight, I'll like Minny even more tomorrow. If Dallas loses I still like Minny. My ratings have Minny at 2.75 better than Dallas. If line at 3.5 buy off to 3. Full write up and reasoning tomorrow if time allows wanted to get this up tonight.
UPDATE at 2:47 12/18 pacific.
RECORD YTD 14-7 (.666)
SIDES 9-4 (.692)
TOTALS 5-3 (.625)
Minny has been on fire lately and gets to try and better their home record in a revenge situation vs a road struggling Dallas team..( 1-10 ATS on the road).Adding to Dallas’s woes is their inability to win on the backtoback (0-4 ATS).
Minny is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings vs Dallas.
Only drawback to this bet is that it falls in the “to good to be true category.” You know what happens when things are too good to be true. Don’t over extent tonight.
MINNY -3 posted last night
I wanted to touch upon the topic of buying points for those of you that are in the dark. I didn’t particularly buy points in the past, but this year I went through a run of a bunch of games that were decided by a ½ .and I had to start buying points. When you buy points you increase your percentage needed to break even. The following formula I took from the Handicapping Zone here ALL credit to Gridster who posted it in response to a question.
Divide how much you lay by the sum of what you lay and what you win, then multiply by 100%.
[lay/(lay + win)] * 100% = Break even hit%
For -130 odds:
[130/(130 + 100)] * 100%
[130/230] * 100%
.565 * 100% = 56.5%
Tonight’s game with the current odds from Pinnacle to buy down from the current 4 to 3’ you have to lay 117 and you would need to hit 53.91 of your plays to break even laying 117.
4 buy down to 3 costs you 127. You would need to hit 55.94% of your plays to break even.
In essence you are talking hitting 54% and 56% of your plays to BREAK EVEN. That is why buying points is prohibitive unless you can hit a high percentage of your plays to cover the added juice. With the formula you can now make your own decisions. I have the game at Minny- 2.74points better than Dallas with the home advantage already factored in. No subjective considerations ie, 0-4 ATS BacktoBack or 1-10 ATS on the road this year. The subjective considerations are there to help YOU determine whether you want to lay the 4 or buy down.
Damn the line is now -4’ as people have decided to back MINNY with both hands not a good sign here as people are believing Minny is all that. Books are looking for Dallas money now. Good Luck
[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on December 18, 2003 at 05:47 PM.]
[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on December 18, 2003 at 05:48 PM.]
Dallas is leading at the half vs Boston. If Dallas wins tonight, I'll like Minny even more tomorrow. If Dallas loses I still like Minny. My ratings have Minny at 2.75 better than Dallas. If line at 3.5 buy off to 3. Full write up and reasoning tomorrow if time allows wanted to get this up tonight.
UPDATE at 2:47 12/18 pacific.
RECORD YTD 14-7 (.666)
SIDES 9-4 (.692)
TOTALS 5-3 (.625)
Minny has been on fire lately and gets to try and better their home record in a revenge situation vs a road struggling Dallas team..( 1-10 ATS on the road).Adding to Dallas’s woes is their inability to win on the backtoback (0-4 ATS).
Minny is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings vs Dallas.
Only drawback to this bet is that it falls in the “to good to be true category.” You know what happens when things are too good to be true. Don’t over extent tonight.
MINNY -3 posted last night
I wanted to touch upon the topic of buying points for those of you that are in the dark. I didn’t particularly buy points in the past, but this year I went through a run of a bunch of games that were decided by a ½ .and I had to start buying points. When you buy points you increase your percentage needed to break even. The following formula I took from the Handicapping Zone here ALL credit to Gridster who posted it in response to a question.
Divide how much you lay by the sum of what you lay and what you win, then multiply by 100%.
[lay/(lay + win)] * 100% = Break even hit%
For -130 odds:
[130/(130 + 100)] * 100%
[130/230] * 100%
.565 * 100% = 56.5%
Tonight’s game with the current odds from Pinnacle to buy down from the current 4 to 3’ you have to lay 117 and you would need to hit 53.91 of your plays to break even laying 117.
4 buy down to 3 costs you 127. You would need to hit 55.94% of your plays to break even.
In essence you are talking hitting 54% and 56% of your plays to BREAK EVEN. That is why buying points is prohibitive unless you can hit a high percentage of your plays to cover the added juice. With the formula you can now make your own decisions. I have the game at Minny- 2.74points better than Dallas with the home advantage already factored in. No subjective considerations ie, 0-4 ATS BacktoBack or 1-10 ATS on the road this year. The subjective considerations are there to help YOU determine whether you want to lay the 4 or buy down.
Damn the line is now -4’ as people have decided to back MINNY with both hands not a good sign here as people are believing Minny is all that. Books are looking for Dallas money now. Good Luck
[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on December 18, 2003 at 05:47 PM.]
[This message was edited by OccamsRazor on December 18, 2003 at 05:48 PM.]
