Thursday Bet O The Day 6/11

[OccamsRazor]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 25-17 (59.5%)
SIDES 8-12 (40%)
TOTALS 17-5 (77%)

Won with Orlando on Tuesday.

Orlando had the huge motivational edge on Tuesday, today motivation is more difficult to decipher. The number is reasonable.

PASS.

On the TOTAL, the main focus of bettors is Orlando won't replicate the playoff NBA shooting record it set last game and are pounding the UNDER. While bettor assumptions will likely be proven correct, Orlando not shooting a record percentage is not the only variable to consider. Laker offense has been having their way with the Orlando defense. Bottom line my original series TOTAL number was 201. Tonight's 201 is a reasonable number.

PASS


Good Luck with whatever you decide to do.

Tonight's results both the SIDE and TOTAL will set up more favorable betting situations in the days to come. Passing today is a strategic move(<)<

 

[ryangenero]

or a weak move

im taking MAGIC and UNDER, there i make my move 2-0 baby

 

[OccamsRazor]

or a weak move

im taking MAGIC and UNDER, there i make my move 2-0 baby

Weak, Undisciplined or Smart. Results will determine the correct label. GL

 

[TheAntidote]

Occ, I've followed you for a while and like your picks and discipline in most cases. Have you given any thought on picking the Magic -2 line due to the fact the general populous is choosing LA to win? I've seen so often when there's a huge majority on one side and Vegas just cleans up due to the game going the opposite way.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Occ, I've followed you for a while and like your picks and discipline in most cases. Have you given any thought on picking the Magic -2 line due to the fact the general populous is choosing LA to win? I've seen so often when there's a huge majority on one side and Vegas just cleans up due to the game going the opposite way.

Basing a wager on the whims of bettors or fading their whims is not conducive to long term positive results. You need to Capp the game, not the bettors, you might be able to win here and there but nothing long term

I've written many times that when bettors fall in love with a Side, calamity awaits around the corner. I tracked those instances and found no better than a 50% long term result. ********* a poster here was taking the other side of bets that had 60% majority of bettors on them, he had early modest success before probability caught up with him and brought 50% results.

Masses are on the Lakers and the UNDER tonight, they could be right tonight or not, 50% probability.

Depending on what happens tonight, the next bet on Sunday will become clearer.

If the game goes OVER, I'll probably will be on the UNDER Sunday and whatever Side loses tonight, I'll be backing them on Sunday.


I wonder why the bettors name came up stars? his name was the opposite of littlebookie

 

[TheAntidote]

Interesting, thanks for you insight. I figured if anyone would have a non-intuition, completely objective view of things, it would be you (which is why I've followed you and had good results). I'm a math and probability kinda guy, so I react to that kind of reasoning over what someone may "feel" about a game more than anything.

Regardless, it looks like the Under and Magic are good at the moment (2nd qtr). We'll see how it goes.