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Thursday 9/7/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
MLB
National League
Phillies @ Nationals
Nola is 1-3, 8.10 n his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 1-0, 3.27 n two starts vs Washington this season. Phils are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-7
Roark is 2-1, 3.37 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in their last seven. He is 0-0, 4.08 in three starts vs Philly this year. Washington is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2
Phillies are 8-7 in their last 15 games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Philly is 9-15 in road series openers. Washington won four of its last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Nationals are 14-9 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Pirates
Lester is 1-1, 8.87 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Cubs are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-6. Last time he faced the Pirates, they scored 10 runs in less than an inning against him (July 9).
Taillon is 2-0, 4.18 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five home starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-5
Cubs won seven of last ten games (under 7-3). Pittsburgh won four of their last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Reds @ Mets
Mahle is 0-1, 2.45 in two starts this year (under 2-0)- Reds scored 2 runs in those games. Cincy lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1
Harvey is 0-1, 9.56 in his last four starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Mets are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7
Reds won five of last seven games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Cincy is 4-1 in last five road series openers. Mets lost five of last seven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. New York is 11-7 in last 18 home series openers.
Marlins @ Braves
Straily is 2-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-1, 2.65 vs Atlanta this season. Miami is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-4
Newcomb is 1-1, 4.35 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Atlanta is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10
Marlins lost nine of last 10 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Miami is 10-12 in road series openers. Atlanta played a DH yesterday; they’ve lost five of last seven games. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Braves are 10-12 in home series openers.
Cardinals @ Padres
Lynn is 2-0, 3.00 in his last seven starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. Cardinals are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2
Richard is 1-1, 3.90 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 6-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14-2
Cardinals won six of last seven games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. San Diego lost its last three games; over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Gray is 2-2, 3.04 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under. Colorado split his eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1
Kershaw is 9-0, 1.68 in his last 10 starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 3-1, 2.42 against the Rockies this season. Dodgers are 10-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-2-3
Colorado lost seven of their last ten games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Rockies are 3-11 in last 14 road series openers. Dodgers lost 11 of their last 12 games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games- they’re 16-7 in home series openers.
American League
New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1
New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.
Indians @ White Sox
Kluber is 6-1, 1.86 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). He is 2-0, 2.95 in three starts against the White Sox this season. Cleveland is 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-2
Rodon is 1-1, 3.00 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. White Sox are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Indians won their last 14 games; under is 4-2 in his last six games. White Sox lost seven of last nine games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 home games.
Twins @ Royals
Gibson is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13. He is 2-0, 3.31 in three starts vs KC this season. Twins are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-1
Gaviglio is making his first start for the Royals; he was 0-4, 6.65 in his last four starts for Seattle. Under is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.
Twins lost four of last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Minnesota is 13-9 in road series openers. Royals won four of last six games (over 5-1). KC is 11-11 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
Phil-Wsh: Nola 11-12; Roark 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Lester 15-12; Taillon 11-10
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 5-9
Mia-Atl: Straily 14-14; Newcomb 4-11
StL-SD: Lynn 13-15; Richard 11-17
Colo-LA: Gray 9-6; Kershaw 20-2
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 16-8; Rodon 5-7
Minn-KC: Gibson 13-11; Gaviglio 0-0 (6-5)
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Phil-Wsh: Nola 6-23; Roark 10-25
Chi-Pitt: Lester 9-27; Taillon 5-21
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 7-14
Mia-Atl: Straily 6-28; Newcomb 4-15
StL-SD: Lynn 7-28; Richard 9-28
Colo-LA: Gray 4-15; Kershaw 4-22
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 4-24; Rodon 4-12
Minn-KC: Gibson 8-24; Gaviglio 4-11
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 146-127 AL, favorites +$438
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 141-125-10
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (Road-Home-Total)
Ariz 28-26-19……37-21–11……..65-47
Atl 26-34-9……24-37-7………..50-71
Cubs 31-31-8…….34-22-13………..65-53
Reds 22-38-8……..29-36–7……….51-74
Colo 34-27-6…….37-29-5………..71-56
LA 31-24-13…….41-21-9……….72-45
Miami 28-32-8…….35-26-10………63-58
Milw 33-27-9…….35-27-9……….67-54
Mets 31-34-4……..27-37-6……….58-71
Philly 17-42-15……26-31-8…………43-73
Pitt 30-32-6…….28-30-13………59-62
St. Louis 30-31-9……35-24-9…………65-55
SD 20-39-8……..35-29–9……….55-68
SF 15-47-9……..28-30-12……….43-77
Wash 42-23-7……32-27-8………….74-50
Orioles 27-33-5……..30-36-7………57-69
Boston 30-32-10………31-35-2…….61-67
White Sox 21-37-10………26-40–4…….47-76
Cleveland 43-23-8……..31-24-8……….74-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….28-33-10……..54-67
Astros 34-25-10……..43-24-5……..77-49
KC 26-33-10……..27-28-12…….53-61
Angels 26-36-8………29-27-13……..55-63
Twins 37-21-11………32-32-8…….68-52
NYY 30-36-6……….36-27-4…..…66-63
A’s 25-36-7……..30-31-11……..55-67
Seattle 26-35-9……..36-25-10………62-60
TB 35-26-10……..38-21-9……..73-47
Texas 34-26-11……..35-24-8……..69-50
Toronto 29-37-5……..27-31-10……..56-68
%age of times teams score in first inning
Team (Road-Home-Total)
Ariz 22-71……..25-67………..47
Atl 16-68……….19-70……….35
Cubs 19-70……..25-69………..44
Reds 25-68……..26-72…………51
Colo 17-67……..25-71..……..42
LA 20-68……..25-70..……..45
Miami 29-68……..26-71………55
Milw 23-69……27-72…..……50
Mets 31-69……..24-70……….55
Philly 16-74……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..22-72……….42
StL 15-71……..21-67………..36
SD 23-67……….23-72……….46
SF 17-72……….20-70……….37
Wash 26-72……..26-67……….52
Orioles 15-66……..24-74……….39
Boston 20-72……..15-68……….35
White Sox 21-68……18-70………..39
Clev 21-75……..21-65……….42
Detroit 16-68…….26-71………42
Astros 20-70……..28-70………48
KC 18-70……..13-69……….31
Angels 25-72……..20-70……….45
Twins 16-67……..18-71……….34
NYY 16-71……..18-67……….34
A’s 16-68……..27-72………43
Seattle 21-70…….24-73……….45
TB 21-70……..24-71……….45
Texas 28-72……..29-67………57
Toronto 24-72……..19-71………43
National League
Phillies @ Nationals
Nola is 1-3, 8.10 n his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 1-0, 3.27 n two starts vs Washington this season. Phils are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-7
Roark is 2-1, 3.37 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in their last seven. He is 0-0, 4.08 in three starts vs Philly this year. Washington is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2
Phillies are 8-7 in their last 15 games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Philly is 9-15 in road series openers. Washington won four of its last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Nationals are 14-9 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Pirates
Lester is 1-1, 8.87 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Cubs are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-6. Last time he faced the Pirates, they scored 10 runs in less than an inning against him (July 9).
Taillon is 2-0, 4.18 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five home starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-5
Cubs won seven of last ten games (under 7-3). Pittsburgh won four of their last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Reds @ Mets
Mahle is 0-1, 2.45 in two starts this year (under 2-0)- Reds scored 2 runs in those games. Cincy lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1
Harvey is 0-1, 9.56 in his last four starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Mets are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7
Reds won five of last seven games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Cincy is 4-1 in last five road series openers. Mets lost five of last seven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. New York is 11-7 in last 18 home series openers.
Marlins @ Braves
Straily is 2-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-1, 2.65 vs Atlanta this season. Miami is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-4
Newcomb is 1-1, 4.35 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Atlanta is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10
Marlins lost nine of last 10 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Miami is 10-12 in road series openers. Atlanta played a DH yesterday; they’ve lost five of last seven games. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Braves are 10-12 in home series openers.
Cardinals @ Padres
Lynn is 2-0, 3.00 in his last seven starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. Cardinals are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2
Richard is 1-1, 3.90 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 6-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14-2
Cardinals won six of last seven games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. San Diego lost its last three games; over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Gray is 2-2, 3.04 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under. Colorado split his eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1
Kershaw is 9-0, 1.68 in his last 10 starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 3-1, 2.42 against the Rockies this season. Dodgers are 10-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-2-3
Colorado lost seven of their last ten games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Rockies are 3-11 in last 14 road series openers. Dodgers lost 11 of their last 12 games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games- they’re 16-7 in home series openers.
American League
New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1
New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.
Indians @ White Sox
Kluber is 6-1, 1.86 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). He is 2-0, 2.95 in three starts against the White Sox this season. Cleveland is 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-2
Rodon is 1-1, 3.00 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. White Sox are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Indians won their last 14 games; under is 4-2 in his last six games. White Sox lost seven of last nine games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 home games.
Twins @ Royals
Gibson is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13. He is 2-0, 3.31 in three starts vs KC this season. Twins are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-1
Gaviglio is making his first start for the Royals; he was 0-4, 6.65 in his last four starts for Seattle. Under is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.
Twins lost four of last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Minnesota is 13-9 in road series openers. Royals won four of last six games (over 5-1). KC is 11-11 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
Phil-Wsh: Nola 11-12; Roark 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Lester 15-12; Taillon 11-10
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 5-9
Mia-Atl: Straily 14-14; Newcomb 4-11
StL-SD: Lynn 13-15; Richard 11-17
Colo-LA: Gray 9-6; Kershaw 20-2
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 16-8; Rodon 5-7
Minn-KC: Gibson 13-11; Gaviglio 0-0 (6-5)
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Phil-Wsh: Nola 6-23; Roark 10-25
Chi-Pitt: Lester 9-27; Taillon 5-21
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 7-14
Mia-Atl: Straily 6-28; Newcomb 4-15
StL-SD: Lynn 7-28; Richard 9-28
Colo-LA: Gray 4-15; Kershaw 4-22
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 4-24; Rodon 4-12
Minn-KC: Gibson 8-24; Gaviglio 4-11
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 146-127 AL, favorites +$438
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 141-125-10
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (Road-Home-Total)
Ariz 28-26-19……37-21–11……..65-47
Atl 26-34-9……24-37-7………..50-71
Cubs 31-31-8…….34-22-13………..65-53
Reds 22-38-8……..29-36–7……….51-74
Colo 34-27-6…….37-29-5………..71-56
LA 31-24-13…….41-21-9……….72-45
Miami 28-32-8…….35-26-10………63-58
Milw 33-27-9…….35-27-9……….67-54
Mets 31-34-4……..27-37-6……….58-71
Philly 17-42-15……26-31-8…………43-73
Pitt 30-32-6…….28-30-13………59-62
St. Louis 30-31-9……35-24-9…………65-55
SD 20-39-8……..35-29–9……….55-68
SF 15-47-9……..28-30-12……….43-77
Wash 42-23-7……32-27-8………….74-50
Orioles 27-33-5……..30-36-7………57-69
Boston 30-32-10………31-35-2…….61-67
White Sox 21-37-10………26-40–4…….47-76
Cleveland 43-23-8……..31-24-8……….74-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….28-33-10……..54-67
Astros 34-25-10……..43-24-5……..77-49
KC 26-33-10……..27-28-12…….53-61
Angels 26-36-8………29-27-13……..55-63
Twins 37-21-11………32-32-8…….68-52
NYY 30-36-6……….36-27-4…..…66-63
A’s 25-36-7……..30-31-11……..55-67
Seattle 26-35-9……..36-25-10………62-60
TB 35-26-10……..38-21-9……..73-47
Texas 34-26-11……..35-24-8……..69-50
Toronto 29-37-5……..27-31-10……..56-68
%age of times teams score in first inning
Team (Road-Home-Total)
Ariz 22-71……..25-67………..47
Atl 16-68……….19-70……….35
Cubs 19-70……..25-69………..44
Reds 25-68……..26-72…………51
Colo 17-67……..25-71..……..42
LA 20-68……..25-70..……..45
Miami 29-68……..26-71………55
Milw 23-69……27-72…..……50
Mets 31-69……..24-70……….55
Philly 16-74……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..22-72……….42
StL 15-71……..21-67………..36
SD 23-67……….23-72……….46
SF 17-72……….20-70……….37
Wash 26-72……..26-67……….52
Orioles 15-66……..24-74……….39
Boston 20-72……..15-68……….35
White Sox 21-68……18-70………..39
Clev 21-75……..21-65……….42
Detroit 16-68…….26-71………42
Astros 20-70……..28-70………48
KC 18-70……..13-69……….31
Angels 25-72……..20-70……….45
Twins 16-67……..18-71……….34
NYY 16-71……..18-67……….34
A’s 16-68……..27-72………43
Seattle 21-70…….24-73……….45
TB 21-70……..24-71……….45
Texas 28-72……..29-67………57
Toronto 24-72……..19-71………43
MLB Long Sheet
PHILADELPHIA (53 - 86) at WASHINGTON (85 - 54) - 7:05 PM
AARON NOLA (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-86 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-59 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-67 (-25.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-55 (-16.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
WASHINGTON is 84-54 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 60-27 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 388-435 (+50.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 432-431 (+46.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 180-160 (-53.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 21-21 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (-0.4 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)
AARON NOLA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NOLA is 1-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.359.
His team's record is 2-6 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.0 units)
TANNER ROARK vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
ROARK is 4-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.103.
His team's record is 6-7 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-0.7 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CHICAGO CUBS (76 - 63) at PITTSBURGH (67 - 73) - 7:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. JAMESON TAILLON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-63 (-19.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 19-21 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 8-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 55-51 (-23.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-36 (-16.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 824-774 (-161.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 414-423 (+40.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
TAILLON is 17-3 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 53-24 (+16.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
LESTER is 29-8 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 96-39 (+34.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 96-116 (-32.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 41-54 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 68-87 (-25.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 9-9 (+5.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.2 Units)
JON LESTER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LESTER is 4-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 4-7 (-6.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.5 units)
JAMESON TAILLON vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
TAILLON is 2-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 2-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CINCINNATI (61 - 79) at NY METS (60 - 79) - 7:10 PM
TYLER MAHLE (R) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-21 (-13.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CINCINNATI is 53-53 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 424-398 (+46.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
NY METS are 60-79 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 30-40 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY METS are 123-142 (-60.1 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
NY METS are 52-54 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 48-59 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 24-33 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY METS are 17-21 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
HARVEY is 11-20 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against NY METS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)
TYLER MAHLE vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.
MATT HARVEY vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
HARVEY is 3-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.255.
His team's record is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.1 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
MIAMI (67 - 72) at ATLANTA (61 - 77) - 7:35 PM
DANIEL STRAILY (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 59-78 (-26.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-50 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 34-28 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-35 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-14 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
STRAILY is 34-25 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRAILY is 18-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRAILY is 20-13 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 42-68 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NEWCOMB is 1-8 (-7.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 (+2.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)
DANIEL STRAILY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
STRAILY is 2-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.172.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)
SEAN NEWCOMB vs. MIAMI since 1997
NEWCOMB is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
ST LOUIS (72 - 67) at SAN DIEGO (62 - 78) - 9:10 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 92-120 (-42.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 62-78 (+3.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 61-70 (+10.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 38-35 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 46-34 (+21.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 46-50 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 79-93 (+15.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-21 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
RICHARD is 6-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 83-69 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-26 (+12.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 27-21 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-2 (+0.1 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)
LANCE LYNN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LYNN is 3-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)
CLAYTON RICHARD vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
RICHARD is 3-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.290.
His team's record is 4-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
COLORADO (74 - 65) at LA DODGERS (92 - 47) - 10:10 PM
JON GRAY (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 669-1026 (-183.1 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
COLORADO is 441-704 (-144.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
KERSHAW is 20-2 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 31-6 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 24-3 (+19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 74-65 (+5.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 22-16 (+8.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 68-73 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 1-6 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
LA DODGERS are 32-28 (-13.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
LA DODGERS are 202-151 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-5 (-0.4 Units) against COLORADO this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)
JON GRAY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GRAY is 2-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.389.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.3 units)
CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. COLORADO since 1997
KERSHAW is 21-6 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.113.
His team's record is 27-9 (+15.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 17-19. (-3.3 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CLEVELAND (83 - 56) at CHI WHITE SOX (54 - 84) - 8:10 PM
COREY KLUBER (R) vs. CARLOS RODON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 23-7 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 36-15 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 52-20 (+28.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 10-5 (+0.4 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)
COREY KLUBER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
KLUBER is 8-4 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.162.
His team's record is 10-7 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-11. (-5.6 units)
CARLOS RODON vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
RODON is 4-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.163.
His team's record is 5-4 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
MINNESOTA (72 - 67) at KANSAS CITY (69 - 69) - 8:15 PM
KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. SAM GAVIGLIO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 69-69 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 82-57 (+24.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 83-66 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 74-61 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 53-49 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 37-32 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 35-30 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 72-67 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 37-30 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 17-11 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 48-37 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 51-48 (+5.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 32-30 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
GIBSON is 8-3 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 8-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 9-3 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 279-395 (-107.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-6 (+2.5 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+6.4 Units)
KYLE GIBSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
GIBSON is 6-4 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.304.
His team's record is 10-4 (+8.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-5. (+1.9 units)
SAM GAVIGLIO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
GAVIGLIO is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 0.938.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
NY YANKEES (74 - 64) at BALTIMORE (71 - 68) - 1:35 PM
SONNY GRAY (R) vs. KEVIN GAUSMAN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 8-6 (+2.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
13 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+11.9 Units)
SONNY GRAY vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
GRAY is 1-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.7 units)
KEVIN GAUSMAN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GAUSMAN is 5-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.347.
His team's record is 10-5 (+5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-6.0 units)
PHILADELPHIA (53 - 86) at WASHINGTON (85 - 54) - 7:05 PM
AARON NOLA (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-86 (-18.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-59 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-67 (-25.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-55 (-16.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
WASHINGTON is 84-54 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 60-27 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 388-435 (+50.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 432-431 (+46.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 180-160 (-53.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 21-21 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (-0.4 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)
AARON NOLA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NOLA is 1-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.359.
His team's record is 2-6 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.0 units)
TANNER ROARK vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
ROARK is 4-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.103.
His team's record is 6-7 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-0.7 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CHICAGO CUBS (76 - 63) at PITTSBURGH (67 - 73) - 7:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. JAMESON TAILLON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-63 (-19.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 19-21 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 8-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 55-51 (-23.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-36 (-16.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 824-774 (-161.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 414-423 (+40.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
TAILLON is 17-3 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 53-24 (+16.9 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
LESTER is 29-8 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 96-39 (+34.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 96-116 (-32.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 41-54 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 68-87 (-25.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 9-9 (+5.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.2 Units)
JON LESTER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LESTER is 4-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 4-7 (-6.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.5 units)
JAMESON TAILLON vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
TAILLON is 2-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 2-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CINCINNATI (61 - 79) at NY METS (60 - 79) - 7:10 PM
TYLER MAHLE (R) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-21 (-13.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CINCINNATI is 53-53 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 424-398 (+46.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
NY METS are 60-79 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 30-40 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY METS are 123-142 (-60.1 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
NY METS are 52-54 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 48-59 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 24-33 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY METS are 17-21 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
HARVEY is 11-20 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against NY METS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)
TYLER MAHLE vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.
MATT HARVEY vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
HARVEY is 3-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.255.
His team's record is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.1 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
MIAMI (67 - 72) at ATLANTA (61 - 77) - 7:35 PM
DANIEL STRAILY (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 59-78 (-26.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-50 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 34-28 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-35 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-14 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
STRAILY is 34-25 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRAILY is 18-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRAILY is 20-13 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 42-68 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NEWCOMB is 1-8 (-7.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 (+2.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)
DANIEL STRAILY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
STRAILY is 2-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.172.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)
SEAN NEWCOMB vs. MIAMI since 1997
NEWCOMB is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
ST LOUIS (72 - 67) at SAN DIEGO (62 - 78) - 9:10 PM
LANCE LYNN (R) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 92-120 (-42.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 62-78 (+3.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 61-70 (+10.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 38-35 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 46-34 (+21.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 46-50 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 79-93 (+15.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-21 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
RICHARD is 6-0 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 83-69 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-26 (+12.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 27-21 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-2 (+0.1 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)
LANCE LYNN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LYNN is 3-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)
CLAYTON RICHARD vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
RICHARD is 3-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.290.
His team's record is 4-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
COLORADO (74 - 65) at LA DODGERS (92 - 47) - 10:10 PM
JON GRAY (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 669-1026 (-183.1 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
COLORADO is 441-704 (-144.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
KERSHAW is 20-2 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 31-6 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 24-3 (+19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 74-65 (+5.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 22-16 (+8.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 68-73 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 1-6 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
LA DODGERS are 32-28 (-13.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
LA DODGERS are 202-151 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-5 (-0.4 Units) against COLORADO this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)
JON GRAY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GRAY is 2-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.389.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.3 units)
CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. COLORADO since 1997
KERSHAW is 21-6 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.113.
His team's record is 27-9 (+15.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 17-19. (-3.3 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
CLEVELAND (83 - 56) at CHI WHITE SOX (54 - 84) - 8:10 PM
COREY KLUBER (R) vs. CARLOS RODON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 23-7 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 36-15 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 52-20 (+28.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 10-5 (+0.4 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)
COREY KLUBER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
KLUBER is 8-4 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.162.
His team's record is 10-7 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-11. (-5.6 units)
CARLOS RODON vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
RODON is 4-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.163.
His team's record is 5-4 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.5 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
MINNESOTA (72 - 67) at KANSAS CITY (69 - 69) - 8:15 PM
KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. SAM GAVIGLIO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 69-69 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 82-57 (+24.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 83-66 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 74-61 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 53-49 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 37-32 (+8.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KANSAS CITY is 35-30 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 72-67 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 37-30 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 17-11 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
MINNESOTA is 48-37 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 51-48 (+5.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 32-30 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
GIBSON is 8-3 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 8-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 9-3 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 279-395 (-107.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-6 (+2.5 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+6.4 Units)
KYLE GIBSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
GIBSON is 6-4 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.304.
His team's record is 10-4 (+8.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-5. (+1.9 units)
SAM GAVIGLIO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
GAVIGLIO is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 0.938.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)
_______________________________________________________________________________
NY YANKEES (74 - 64) at BALTIMORE (71 - 68) - 1:35 PM
SONNY GRAY (R) vs. KEVIN GAUSMAN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 8-6 (+2.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
13 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+11.9 Units)
SONNY GRAY vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
GRAY is 1-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.57 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.7 units)
KEVIN GAUSMAN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GAUSMAN is 5-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.347.
His team's record is 10-5 (+5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-6.0 units)
MLB Trend Report
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees4-1-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore
NY Yankees are 7-17-1 SU in their last 25 games ,when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,when playing NY Yankees
Baltimore17-7-1 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Washington
Washington is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
CHI CUBS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Chi Cubs15-7-1 SU in their last 23 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 19 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 7-15-1 SU in their last 23 games ,when playing at home against Chi Cubs
CINCINNATI vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
CLEVELAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Chi White Sox are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN DIEGO
St. Louis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
COLORADO vs. LA DODGERS
Colorado is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 13 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees4-1-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore
NY Yankees are 7-17-1 SU in their last 25 games ,when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,when playing NY Yankees
Baltimore17-7-1 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Washington
Washington is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
CHI CUBS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Chi Cubs15-7-1 SU in their last 23 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 19 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 7-15-1 SU in their last 23 games ,when playing at home against Chi Cubs
CINCINNATI vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
CLEVELAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Chi White Sox are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN DIEGO
St. Louis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
COLORADO vs. LA DODGERS
Colorado is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 13 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
MLB Trend Report
NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
CHI CUBS @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Mets is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Cincinnati
MIAMI @ ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
CLEVELAND @ CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
ST. LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Diego is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
COLORADO @ LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Dodgers is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Colorado
NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
CHI CUBS @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Mets is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Cincinnati
MIAMI @ ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
CLEVELAND @ CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
ST. LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Diego is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
COLORADO @ LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Dodgers is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Colorado
MLB Top Trends
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in All games in all games. The record is 78 Overs and 49 Unders this season (+23.3 units)
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in All games in night games. The record is 59 Overs and 27 Unders this season (+29.25 units)
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY
Play OVER MINNESOTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record. The record is 76 Overs and 44 Unders for the last two seasons (+27.9 units)
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in All games in all games. The record is 78 Overs and 49 Unders this season (+23.3 units)
CINCINNATI @ NY METS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in All games in night games. The record is 59 Overs and 27 Unders this season (+29.25 units)
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY
Play OVER MINNESOTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record. The record is 76 Overs and 44 Unders for the last two seasons (+27.9 units)
StatFox Super Situations
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games 65-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.5% | 37.5 units ) 14-18 this year. ( 43.8% | 1.0 units )
CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
CLEVELAND is 40-12 (+28.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: CLEVELAND (5.2) , OPPONENT (2.9)
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games 65-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.5% | 37.5 units ) 14-18 this year. ( 43.8% | 1.0 units )
CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
CLEVELAND is 40-12 (+28.3 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: CLEVELAND (5.2) , OPPONENT (2.9)
Diamond Trends - Thursday
TOP SU TREND:
The White Sox are 0-13 since May 16, 2017 past the first game of a series as a dog after they had 6 or fewer hits last game.
TOP OU TREND:
The Cardinals are 0-14-2 OU (-3.09 ppg) since Oct 07, 2006 as a favorite off a game as a dog in which they scored 3 runs or less and won.
TOP STARTER TREND:
The Dodgers are 22-0 since Sep 27, 2013 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home 200+ favorite after he had a WHIP of less than 1 in his last start.
TOP CHOICE TREND:
The Cubs are 0-12 OU (-3.17 ppg) since May 10, 2017 on the road off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.
TOP SU TREND:
The White Sox are 0-13 since May 16, 2017 past the first game of a series as a dog after they had 6 or fewer hits last game.
TOP OU TREND:
The Cardinals are 0-14-2 OU (-3.09 ppg) since Oct 07, 2006 as a favorite off a game as a dog in which they scored 3 runs or less and won.
TOP STARTER TREND:
The Dodgers are 22-0 since Sep 27, 2013 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home 200+ favorite after he had a WHIP of less than 1 in his last start.
TOP CHOICE TREND:
The Cubs are 0-12 OU (-3.17 ppg) since May 10, 2017 on the road off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits.
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8
We start in the Steel City, where the Cubs and Pirates wrap up their series. The Pirates are still fighting to the end and the Cubs are still in search of their 2016 form. Yesterday’s 1-0 win was a good sign for Jose Quintana and the Cubs bullpen, but a bad sign for the offense. It could be another low-scoring affair tonight with Jon Lester on the mound against Jameson Taillon.
Lester has a 4.46 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP. His 65.8 percent LOB% is the lowest he has had since 2012. Normally, that’s the type of guy that the market would like to back, but the market has slightly slanted towards the home dog side in this one. Lester has 159 strikeouts in 153.1 innings of work and has solid peripherals mostly across the board, except in the home run department, where he is on pace to allow a career-high in dingers. The low LOB% is very uncharacteristic of Lester, who has not posted an ERA north of 4.00 since that 2012 year and he has only done it three times in his career.
Lester has allowed 17 runs on 22 hits over his last 12.2 innings of work. He hasn’t exactly faced world-beaters in terms of lineups either, with the Diamondbacks, who have poor season-long numbers against lefties, the Reds, and the Braves. Lester allowed three home runs last time out against the Braves in his first start since August 17. Normally guys coming back from injury or fresh off the DL are guys that I don’t want to back. Maybe the market agrees here.
Like Lester, Jameson Taillon shows some positive regression in the advanced metrics. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP. Taillon has been victimized by a .353 BABIP against and has a LOB% that is slightly below the league average at 71.1 percent. Taillon allowed 17 of his 56 earned runs in a two-start stretch from July 25 to August 1 that really shot his ERA through the roof. Since then, he has allowed 14 earned runs over his last six starts. He just worked six innings for the first time since August 11, so there’s hope that he has made some changes, but Taillon also has a 9/10 K/BB ratio over his last three outings.
I would like to think that Lester can right the ship and head into the playoffs on a high note, since he has an extensive track record. I’ll probably wait for this line to come down a little bit more and then play back on the Cubs.
Philadelphia at Washington (-170); Total: 8
I’ve been a big proponent of Tanner Roark throughout the season, but he shouldn’t be a -170 favorite against Aaron Nola. Nola has a 3.72 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and a 3.55 xFIP on the season. He’s struck out 148 in his 142.2 innings of work and had a stretch of 10 starts in which he didn’t allow more than two runs. Nola has allowed 19 runs over his last four starts, so he has regressed a little bit, but that can be attributed to some LOB% regression. He still has 23 strikeouts in those 23.1 innings of work, so the stuff still has good life. He’s only walked six. He’s given up four home runs. The BABIP and sequencing gods haven’t been on his side.
Roark has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP on the season. He has pretty good peripherals overall, but has a 66.9 percent LOB%. I’ve been waiting for Roark’s LOB% to turn in a better direction for a while this season, but it has not happened and he has burned up some bankroll as a result. I certainly wouldn’t spend -170 on him here. The gap between the Phillies and the Nationals is significant, but so is the gap between the starting pitchers.
I’ll be taking a shot on the Phillies and Nola at this price.
Cincinnati (-120) at New York; Total: 9
Sometimes the clues in a line tell you everything that you need to know. Tyler Mahle is making his third career MLB start. The right-hander allowed three runs on four hits in five innings in his debut and worked six shutout innings in his second start against the same Pirates team. Today, Mahle, with all of 11 innings under his belt, is favored on the road against the Mets.
Mahle had excellent minor league numbers in his 24 starts covering 144.1 innings with a low ERA and 138 strikeouts against just 30 walks. He only struck out three last time out, but he lost the nerves and showed the command that he had in the minor leagues.
Matt Harvey will be on the bump for the Mets. Harvey has a 5.97 ERA with a 6.23 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP in his 14 starts. This will be his second start back from the DL after allowing seven runs on eight hits against Houston on Saturday. Initially, the plan was Harvey to go on short rest, which would have been a borderline criminal offense by Terry Collins. Now he’s been pushed back to extra rest. Still, there’s no reason to back Harvey. The Reds did lose Billy Hamilton to a hand injury yesterday, but their lineup is still significantly better than a Mets lineup decimated by trades and injuries.
The Reds are the play today. The line says so. It’s not a trap. It’s the correct position from the oddsmakers and I wouldn’t be surprised if it rose.
Miami (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5
The Marlins draw a Braves team that played a lot of baseball yesterday with a doubleheader against the Rangers. Normally, I would be all over the Marlins here, but it was a very somber mood as the team left friends and family to hit the road. Hurricane Irma has her sights set on the Miami area and it can be very hard for the players to be away during that sort of event.
Families and friends will be evacuating throughout the day, so the players have their minds elsewhere. Plus, the Marlins aren’t playing for anything, so baseball isn’t the distraction it would be in a pennant race or something. I won’t touch Miami at all in this weekend set. That’s not to say that I would take the Braves, since I’m simply speculating on how the Marlins players will feel and react.
It’s a pass game and a pass series for me.
St. Louis (-125) at San Diego; Total: 8.5
The Cardinals and the Padres square off on Thursday night. The market backed the Padres in last night’s 3-1 Cardinals win and drove the home team all the way up to -140 with Dinelson Lamet on the mound against rookie Jack Flaherty.
Today, it will be Lance Lynn, who has been a fade candidate for influential bettors most of the season, against Clayton Richard. To me, Lynn has kind of gotten an unfair rap all year long. He’s coming back from Tommy John and his command isn’t what it once was, but he’s had an ERA better than his XFIP in each of his last two seasons. He’s generally been a guy that has stranded a lot of runners. This season, he has been on the fortunate side of luck. I will admit that. Lynn has a .229 BABIP against and an 82.2 percent LOB%, so those are two metrics where you would expect some regression. With those outliers, he has a 2.99 ERA with a 4.72 FIP and a 4.67 xFIP. That’s why the market has been against him. I can’t blame them, but I don’t think enough context has been applied.
Clayton Richard has some signs of positive regression in his own right. He has a 4.94 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP. His .349 BABIP against and 20.5 percent HR/FB% are both major outliers. I have a lot more concerns than that, though. Richard has thrown 173 innings this season. He has only thrown 162.2 innings over the last four seasons combined, with a lost year in 2014 due to injury. It’s hard to see a pitcher with a workload that he hasn’t had since 2012 improving at this stage of the game. He has allowed 12 runs in his last 18.2 innings of work and has allowed four home runs after allowing just four home runs in his first seven starts out of the All-Star Break. That makes me wonder if his command is sagging from the workload.
My guess here is that the market will look at the advanced metrics and fade the Cardinals and Lynn. I’ll wait it out on this one and try to grab the Cardinals at a better price later. If the line moves against me, I will simply pass.
Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8
We start in the Steel City, where the Cubs and Pirates wrap up their series. The Pirates are still fighting to the end and the Cubs are still in search of their 2016 form. Yesterday’s 1-0 win was a good sign for Jose Quintana and the Cubs bullpen, but a bad sign for the offense. It could be another low-scoring affair tonight with Jon Lester on the mound against Jameson Taillon.
Lester has a 4.46 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP. His 65.8 percent LOB% is the lowest he has had since 2012. Normally, that’s the type of guy that the market would like to back, but the market has slightly slanted towards the home dog side in this one. Lester has 159 strikeouts in 153.1 innings of work and has solid peripherals mostly across the board, except in the home run department, where he is on pace to allow a career-high in dingers. The low LOB% is very uncharacteristic of Lester, who has not posted an ERA north of 4.00 since that 2012 year and he has only done it three times in his career.
Lester has allowed 17 runs on 22 hits over his last 12.2 innings of work. He hasn’t exactly faced world-beaters in terms of lineups either, with the Diamondbacks, who have poor season-long numbers against lefties, the Reds, and the Braves. Lester allowed three home runs last time out against the Braves in his first start since August 17. Normally guys coming back from injury or fresh off the DL are guys that I don’t want to back. Maybe the market agrees here.
Like Lester, Jameson Taillon shows some positive regression in the advanced metrics. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP. Taillon has been victimized by a .353 BABIP against and has a LOB% that is slightly below the league average at 71.1 percent. Taillon allowed 17 of his 56 earned runs in a two-start stretch from July 25 to August 1 that really shot his ERA through the roof. Since then, he has allowed 14 earned runs over his last six starts. He just worked six innings for the first time since August 11, so there’s hope that he has made some changes, but Taillon also has a 9/10 K/BB ratio over his last three outings.
I would like to think that Lester can right the ship and head into the playoffs on a high note, since he has an extensive track record. I’ll probably wait for this line to come down a little bit more and then play back on the Cubs.
Philadelphia at Washington (-170); Total: 8
I’ve been a big proponent of Tanner Roark throughout the season, but he shouldn’t be a -170 favorite against Aaron Nola. Nola has a 3.72 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and a 3.55 xFIP on the season. He’s struck out 148 in his 142.2 innings of work and had a stretch of 10 starts in which he didn’t allow more than two runs. Nola has allowed 19 runs over his last four starts, so he has regressed a little bit, but that can be attributed to some LOB% regression. He still has 23 strikeouts in those 23.1 innings of work, so the stuff still has good life. He’s only walked six. He’s given up four home runs. The BABIP and sequencing gods haven’t been on his side.
Roark has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP on the season. He has pretty good peripherals overall, but has a 66.9 percent LOB%. I’ve been waiting for Roark’s LOB% to turn in a better direction for a while this season, but it has not happened and he has burned up some bankroll as a result. I certainly wouldn’t spend -170 on him here. The gap between the Phillies and the Nationals is significant, but so is the gap between the starting pitchers.
I’ll be taking a shot on the Phillies and Nola at this price.
Cincinnati (-120) at New York; Total: 9
Sometimes the clues in a line tell you everything that you need to know. Tyler Mahle is making his third career MLB start. The right-hander allowed three runs on four hits in five innings in his debut and worked six shutout innings in his second start against the same Pirates team. Today, Mahle, with all of 11 innings under his belt, is favored on the road against the Mets.
Mahle had excellent minor league numbers in his 24 starts covering 144.1 innings with a low ERA and 138 strikeouts against just 30 walks. He only struck out three last time out, but he lost the nerves and showed the command that he had in the minor leagues.
Matt Harvey will be on the bump for the Mets. Harvey has a 5.97 ERA with a 6.23 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP in his 14 starts. This will be his second start back from the DL after allowing seven runs on eight hits against Houston on Saturday. Initially, the plan was Harvey to go on short rest, which would have been a borderline criminal offense by Terry Collins. Now he’s been pushed back to extra rest. Still, there’s no reason to back Harvey. The Reds did lose Billy Hamilton to a hand injury yesterday, but their lineup is still significantly better than a Mets lineup decimated by trades and injuries.
The Reds are the play today. The line says so. It’s not a trap. It’s the correct position from the oddsmakers and I wouldn’t be surprised if it rose.
Miami (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5
The Marlins draw a Braves team that played a lot of baseball yesterday with a doubleheader against the Rangers. Normally, I would be all over the Marlins here, but it was a very somber mood as the team left friends and family to hit the road. Hurricane Irma has her sights set on the Miami area and it can be very hard for the players to be away during that sort of event.
Families and friends will be evacuating throughout the day, so the players have their minds elsewhere. Plus, the Marlins aren’t playing for anything, so baseball isn’t the distraction it would be in a pennant race or something. I won’t touch Miami at all in this weekend set. That’s not to say that I would take the Braves, since I’m simply speculating on how the Marlins players will feel and react.
It’s a pass game and a pass series for me.
St. Louis (-125) at San Diego; Total: 8.5
The Cardinals and the Padres square off on Thursday night. The market backed the Padres in last night’s 3-1 Cardinals win and drove the home team all the way up to -140 with Dinelson Lamet on the mound against rookie Jack Flaherty.
Today, it will be Lance Lynn, who has been a fade candidate for influential bettors most of the season, against Clayton Richard. To me, Lynn has kind of gotten an unfair rap all year long. He’s coming back from Tommy John and his command isn’t what it once was, but he’s had an ERA better than his XFIP in each of his last two seasons. He’s generally been a guy that has stranded a lot of runners. This season, he has been on the fortunate side of luck. I will admit that. Lynn has a .229 BABIP against and an 82.2 percent LOB%, so those are two metrics where you would expect some regression. With those outliers, he has a 2.99 ERA with a 4.72 FIP and a 4.67 xFIP. That’s why the market has been against him. I can’t blame them, but I don’t think enough context has been applied.
Clayton Richard has some signs of positive regression in his own right. He has a 4.94 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP. His .349 BABIP against and 20.5 percent HR/FB% are both major outliers. I have a lot more concerns than that, though. Richard has thrown 173 innings this season. He has only thrown 162.2 innings over the last four seasons combined, with a lost year in 2014 due to injury. It’s hard to see a pitcher with a workload that he hasn’t had since 2012 improving at this stage of the game. He has allowed 12 runs in his last 18.2 innings of work and has allowed four home runs after allowing just four home runs in his first seven starts out of the All-Star Break. That makes me wonder if his command is sagging from the workload.
My guess here is that the market will look at the advanced metrics and fade the Cardinals and Lynn. I’ll wait it out on this one and try to grab the Cardinals at a better price later. If the line moves against me, I will simply pass.
Umpire Assignment
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Mike Winters 2017: 15-12, 13-12 o/u (2016: 12-16, 15-12 o/u)
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
Over is 11-1 in Kelloggs last 12 Yankees games behind home plate.
Over is 9-4 in Kelloggs last 13 Orioles games behind home plate.
901 Philadelphia Phillies +156 Over 8 -115
902 Washington Nationals -166 Under 8 -105
Umpire information not available.
903 Chicago Cubs -130 Over 8 -105
904 Pittsburgh Pirates +120 Under 8 -115
Roberto Ortiz 2017: 4-5, 3-6 o/u (2016: 0-2, 0-2 o/u)
Under is 8-3 in Ortizs last 11 games behind home plate.
905 Cincinnati Reds -115 Over 9 -105
906 New York Mets +105 Under 9 -115
Umpire information not available.
907 Miami Marlins -113 Over 9½ -105
908 Atlanta Braves +103 Under 9½ -115
Umpire information not available.
913 Cleveland Indians -255 Over 7½ -120
914 Chicago White Sox +235 Under 7½ +100
Mark Carlson 2017: 14-11, 11-11 o/u (2016: 16-15, 13-18 o/u)
Home team is 6-2 in Carlsons last 8 games behind home plate.
White Sox are 19-9 in their last 28 games with Carlson behind home plate.
Under is 8-2 in Carlsons last 10 Indians games behind home plate.
915 Minnesota Twins -107 Over 9½ -115
916 Kansas City Royals -103 Under 9½ -105
Umpire information not available.
909 St. Louis Cardinals -125 Over 8½ -110
910 San Diego Padres +115 Under 8½ -110
Cardinals are 8-0 in their last 8 games with Tichenor behind home plate.
911 Colorado Rockies +257 Over 6½ -120
912 Los Angeles Dodgers -285 Under 6½ +100
Umpire information not available.
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Mike Winters 2017: 15-12, 13-12 o/u (2016: 12-16, 15-12 o/u)
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Kellogg behind home plate.
Over is 11-1 in Kelloggs last 12 Yankees games behind home plate.
Over is 9-4 in Kelloggs last 13 Orioles games behind home plate.
901 Philadelphia Phillies +156 Over 8 -115
902 Washington Nationals -166 Under 8 -105
Umpire information not available.
903 Chicago Cubs -130 Over 8 -105
904 Pittsburgh Pirates +120 Under 8 -115
Roberto Ortiz 2017: 4-5, 3-6 o/u (2016: 0-2, 0-2 o/u)
Under is 8-3 in Ortizs last 11 games behind home plate.
905 Cincinnati Reds -115 Over 9 -105
906 New York Mets +105 Under 9 -115
Umpire information not available.
907 Miami Marlins -113 Over 9½ -105
908 Atlanta Braves +103 Under 9½ -115
Umpire information not available.
913 Cleveland Indians -255 Over 7½ -120
914 Chicago White Sox +235 Under 7½ +100
Mark Carlson 2017: 14-11, 11-11 o/u (2016: 16-15, 13-18 o/u)
Home team is 6-2 in Carlsons last 8 games behind home plate.
White Sox are 19-9 in their last 28 games with Carlson behind home plate.
Under is 8-2 in Carlsons last 10 Indians games behind home plate.
915 Minnesota Twins -107 Over 9½ -115
916 Kansas City Royals -103 Under 9½ -105
Umpire information not available.
909 St. Louis Cardinals -125 Over 8½ -110
910 San Diego Padres +115 Under 8½ -110
Cardinals are 8-0 in their last 8 games with Tichenor behind home plate.
911 Colorado Rockies +257 Over 6½ -120
912 Los Angeles Dodgers -285 Under 6½ +100
Umpire information not available.
NFL
KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________________________________________________________________
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
__________________________________________________________________________
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
KANSAS CITY (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (17 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________________________________________________________________
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
__________________________________________________________________________
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chiefs @ Patriots — Last 14 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 12-2 in its first game the next year (8-3-3 vs spread). Patriots are 6-2 in last eight games with KC; Chiefs lost last six visits here- their last win in Foxboro was in 1990. New England is 12-1 in last 13 season openers (lost @ Miami in ’14); they’re 14-1 in last 15 home openers, but just 1-4 vs spread in last five- their last four wins in HO’s were by 7 or less points. Chiefs won three of last four season openers; they’re 3-8 in last 11 road openers (under 8-4 in last 12), but 6-5 vs spread in last 11 AO’s as an underdog. Under Reid, Chiefs are 4-7 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog. Since ’13, Patriots are 17-8-3 as a home favorite, 11-4-1 vs non-division opponents.
Kansas City at New England (-9, 48.5)
Nine years ago on the exact same date as Thursday's season opener, the Patriots opened the season against the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium and saw disaster strike almost immediately. Tom Brady suffered a season-ending ACL tear when Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard took out his knee in the first half, resulting in the only games he's missed since 2002 not related to Deflategate.
If not for eerie similarities between today and 2008, this game would be more easily billed as a potential AFC Championship preview given how stacked the Chiefs look coming off a 12-4 season. They finished with the second-best record in the conference behind the 14-2 Patriots but never ran into them in the playoffs, lasting only a single round following an 18-16 divisional playoff loss to Pittsburgh. Although Kansas City cut top receiver Jeremy Maclin and will be without top running back Spencer Ware for the season after he tore his PCL in the third preseason game, there are still plenty of weapons for New England to be concerned with.
Travis Kelce has emerged as a Rob Gronkowski type and has managed to stay healthy enough to replace him as the NFL's most productive tight end, leading the league in receiving yards and yards after catch while finishing second with 85 receptions. Tyreek Hill's speed makes him a dangerous weapon who scored 12 touchdowns last season as an electric return man and emerging receiver. Rookie Kareem Hunt, versatile Charcandrick West and veteran import C.J. Spiller are in the mix to help replace Ware, so Andy Reid will have plenty of options to try and trouble a Patriots defense that struggled some in the preseason and saw LB Shea McClellin and DB/KR Cyrus Jones join receiver Julian Edelman in being lost for the season.
Despite those injuries, the defending champion Patriots' hold on the favorite's role entering this season has strengthened following the preseason. Rob Gronkowski looks to be 100 percent and newly acquired receiver Brandin Cooks should be a valuable weapon whose role likely increases with Edelman out of the equation. James White, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are all on board as backfield options, so replacing LeGarrette Blount should also be manageable for Bill Belichick.
Even replacing Brady, as Belichick managed to do to the tune of a 3-1 start during last season's suspension, hasn't proven too daunting a task for the Pats of late. Unless he's out there mopping up after a blowout, New England doesn't want to see backup Jimmy Garoppolo doing anything but holding a clipboard. Brady had a productive preseason, throwing three touchdowns and completing 75 percent of his 24 passes. His 10 yards per attempt ranked among the highest in the league.
Alex Smith was inconsistent, but still easily held off the challenge of first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II. The Chiefs generated big plays on both sides of the ball in a 30-12 preseason Week 2 win against Cincinnati, then struggled mightily in Seattle in the dress rehearsal game, falling 26-13 after failing to execute on plays that were there to be made.
The Patriots are 14-1 in home openers in the Belichick/Brady era, while Belichick is 13-4 with New England in Week 1 (15-7 overall). Andy Reid has won three of four openers since joining Kansas City and won four of his last five with Philadelphia, so there's little doubt both teams should be prepared to get things started.
Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC West: 2/1 to 9/4
Odds to win AFC: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 12.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/14 to 1/25
Odds to win AFC: 3/1 to 5/4
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 to 11/4
LINE MOVEMENT
The Patriots may as well have already won their division as far as the odds are concerned since they're a wild 1-to-25, which is almost as amusing as the Jets going from 100-to-1 to 200-to-1 to win the AFC East before playing a game that counts in the standings. Since 2003, New England has prevailed 13 of 14 times, with the lone outlier coming in '08 after Brady was lost for the season and Matt Cassel was pressed into duty.
Kansas City has the second-best odds to win the AFC West, placed behind favored Oakland (5/4) and ahead of Denver and San Diego (9/2). Considering the Chiefs have won 22 of their last 26 regular-season games, a projected win total placed below double-digits raised a few eyebrows. Between the loss of Ware and their inconsistent preseason, the Chiefs have seen their conference and Super Bowl future odds become more longer overthe last few weeks.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots are currently laying 9 points in this first contest after the line initially opened at 7 and hovered at 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 but is set at 48.5 at many books as of Wednesday afternoon. Weather conditions are supposed to be clear and perfect for football.
INJURY CONCERNS
Kelce made this week's injury report due to a calf injury but was removed and is expected to play without limitations. The news isn't as positive on guard Parker Ehringer, who was downgraded to doubtful along with new linebacker Reggie Ragland. DT Bennie Logan (knee) and kicker Cairo Santos (groin) are also expected to play.
The Patriots have seen speedy WR Malcolm Mitchell limited by a knee injury throughout camp, so we'll see whether he can be a factor. The Patriots traded for WR Philip Dorsett from the Colts and also envision a larger role for Danny Amendola. Backup offensive tackle Cameron Fleming returned to practice but is uncertain here. Safety Nate Ebner is also questionable for New England.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
1/16/16 New England 27-20 vs. Kansas City (NE -5.5, 43)
9/29/14 Kansas City 41-14 vs. New England (NE -3, 46)
11/21/11 New England 34-3 vs. Kansas City (NE -17, 47)
9/7/08 New England 17-10 vs. Kansas City (NE -16, 43.5)
11/27/05 Kansas City 26-16 vs. New England (KC -3, 51)
PATRIOTS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Since losing to Seattle at Foxboro in Week 10, New England is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS at home, including playoff wins over the Texans and Steelers. They're averaging 33.4 points in those wins. Both of the Patriots' losses last season came as a home favorite.
CHIEFS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Kansas City was a road 'dog only four times last season and won three of those instances outright, carrying a streak into 2017. The Chiefs beat the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons in a four game streatch from mid-November to early December in 2016. The Chiefs haven't been this heavy an underdog since Week 2 of the '14 season when they covered at Denver in a 24-17 loss as a 13-point underdog. The last meeting between these teams saw Kansas City in this role in the 2015 Divisional playoffs. New England won and covered.
Nine years ago on the exact same date as Thursday's season opener, the Patriots opened the season against the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium and saw disaster strike almost immediately. Tom Brady suffered a season-ending ACL tear when Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard took out his knee in the first half, resulting in the only games he's missed since 2002 not related to Deflategate.
If not for eerie similarities between today and 2008, this game would be more easily billed as a potential AFC Championship preview given how stacked the Chiefs look coming off a 12-4 season. They finished with the second-best record in the conference behind the 14-2 Patriots but never ran into them in the playoffs, lasting only a single round following an 18-16 divisional playoff loss to Pittsburgh. Although Kansas City cut top receiver Jeremy Maclin and will be without top running back Spencer Ware for the season after he tore his PCL in the third preseason game, there are still plenty of weapons for New England to be concerned with.
Travis Kelce has emerged as a Rob Gronkowski type and has managed to stay healthy enough to replace him as the NFL's most productive tight end, leading the league in receiving yards and yards after catch while finishing second with 85 receptions. Tyreek Hill's speed makes him a dangerous weapon who scored 12 touchdowns last season as an electric return man and emerging receiver. Rookie Kareem Hunt, versatile Charcandrick West and veteran import C.J. Spiller are in the mix to help replace Ware, so Andy Reid will have plenty of options to try and trouble a Patriots defense that struggled some in the preseason and saw LB Shea McClellin and DB/KR Cyrus Jones join receiver Julian Edelman in being lost for the season.
Despite those injuries, the defending champion Patriots' hold on the favorite's role entering this season has strengthened following the preseason. Rob Gronkowski looks to be 100 percent and newly acquired receiver Brandin Cooks should be a valuable weapon whose role likely increases with Edelman out of the equation. James White, Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are all on board as backfield options, so replacing LeGarrette Blount should also be manageable for Bill Belichick.
Even replacing Brady, as Belichick managed to do to the tune of a 3-1 start during last season's suspension, hasn't proven too daunting a task for the Pats of late. Unless he's out there mopping up after a blowout, New England doesn't want to see backup Jimmy Garoppolo doing anything but holding a clipboard. Brady had a productive preseason, throwing three touchdowns and completing 75 percent of his 24 passes. His 10 yards per attempt ranked among the highest in the league.
Alex Smith was inconsistent, but still easily held off the challenge of first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II. The Chiefs generated big plays on both sides of the ball in a 30-12 preseason Week 2 win against Cincinnati, then struggled mightily in Seattle in the dress rehearsal game, falling 26-13 after failing to execute on plays that were there to be made.
The Patriots are 14-1 in home openers in the Belichick/Brady era, while Belichick is 13-4 with New England in Week 1 (15-7 overall). Andy Reid has won three of four openers since joining Kansas City and won four of his last five with Philadelphia, so there's little doubt both teams should be prepared to get things started.
Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC West: 2/1 to 9/4
Odds to win AFC: 10/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1
New England Patriots
Season win total: 12.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/14 to 1/25
Odds to win AFC: 3/1 to 5/4
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 to 11/4
LINE MOVEMENT
The Patriots may as well have already won their division as far as the odds are concerned since they're a wild 1-to-25, which is almost as amusing as the Jets going from 100-to-1 to 200-to-1 to win the AFC East before playing a game that counts in the standings. Since 2003, New England has prevailed 13 of 14 times, with the lone outlier coming in '08 after Brady was lost for the season and Matt Cassel was pressed into duty.
Kansas City has the second-best odds to win the AFC West, placed behind favored Oakland (5/4) and ahead of Denver and San Diego (9/2). Considering the Chiefs have won 22 of their last 26 regular-season games, a projected win total placed below double-digits raised a few eyebrows. Between the loss of Ware and their inconsistent preseason, the Chiefs have seen their conference and Super Bowl future odds become more longer overthe last few weeks.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots are currently laying 9 points in this first contest after the line initially opened at 7 and hovered at 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 but is set at 48.5 at many books as of Wednesday afternoon. Weather conditions are supposed to be clear and perfect for football.
INJURY CONCERNS
Kelce made this week's injury report due to a calf injury but was removed and is expected to play without limitations. The news isn't as positive on guard Parker Ehringer, who was downgraded to doubtful along with new linebacker Reggie Ragland. DT Bennie Logan (knee) and kicker Cairo Santos (groin) are also expected to play.
The Patriots have seen speedy WR Malcolm Mitchell limited by a knee injury throughout camp, so we'll see whether he can be a factor. The Patriots traded for WR Philip Dorsett from the Colts and also envision a larger role for Danny Amendola. Backup offensive tackle Cameron Fleming returned to practice but is uncertain here. Safety Nate Ebner is also questionable for New England.
RECENT MEETINGS (New England 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 3-2)
1/16/16 New England 27-20 vs. Kansas City (NE -5.5, 43)
9/29/14 Kansas City 41-14 vs. New England (NE -3, 46)
11/21/11 New England 34-3 vs. Kansas City (NE -17, 47)
9/7/08 New England 17-10 vs. Kansas City (NE -16, 43.5)
11/27/05 Kansas City 26-16 vs. New England (KC -3, 51)
PATRIOTS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Since losing to Seattle at Foxboro in Week 10, New England is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS at home, including playoff wins over the Texans and Steelers. They're averaging 33.4 points in those wins. Both of the Patriots' losses last season came as a home favorite.
CHIEFS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Kansas City was a road 'dog only four times last season and won three of those instances outright, carrying a streak into 2017. The Chiefs beat the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons in a four game streatch from mid-November to early December in 2016. The Chiefs haven't been this heavy an underdog since Week 2 of the '14 season when they covered at Denver in a 24-17 loss as a 13-point underdog. The last meeting between these teams saw Kansas City in this role in the 2015 Divisional playoffs. New England won and covered.
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Chiefs at Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Seven months removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history that burnished the legacies of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots open the 2017 season on Thursday night against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. Emotions should be high as the Patriots celebrate their fifth world championship in a pregame ceremony.
Brady, who turned 40 last month, became the first quarterback in history to win five Super Bowl titles, rallying New England from a 25-point deficit in the second half to a 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons. New England, the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champ in 2003-04, was not content to stand pat in the offseason and brought in an elite wide receiver in Brandin Cooks -- an acquisition even more noteworthy after fellow wideout Julian Edelman suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. The Chiefs face a daunting challenge against a club that has won 24 in a row at home against non-division AFC opponents, but they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, having won 23 games over the past two seasons and claiming the AFC West title in 2016 with a 12-4 mark. "If you're in this business, that's what you thrive on, and I'd tell you both sides feel that way," Kansas City coach Andy Reid said of facing the Patriots. "The players, that's why they play the game. They want to play against the best. You want to coach against the best -- that's a beautiful thing."
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.5
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as seven-point home favorites way back when lines were first released in April. The public bet the defending champs steadily all summer and, as of Wednesday evening, the line was at -9. The total originally hit the betting boards at 50 and was dropped slightly down to 48.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Kansas City overachieved big time last season. Their stats were not indicative of their straight-up record, so the Chiefs will likely regress this season. New England is the best team in the NFL, even with the loss of WR Edelman. A deep group of speedy wide receivers makes their offense even more potent than before." - Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Chiefs - LB D. Johnson (Probable, Achilles), K. C. Santos (Probable, Groin), OL C. Irving (Probable, Calf), TE T. Kelce (Probable, Calf), OL P. Ehinger (Probable, Knee), LB R. Ragland (Probable, Knee), DB R. Parker (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Nicolas (Out, Knee), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (IR, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), LB T. Hali (Out, Knee).
Patriots - LB E. Roberts (Probable, Ribs), WR M. Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL C. Flemming (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Questionable, Knee), DL A. Butler (Questionable, Knee), DB N. Ebner (Questionable, Shoulder), LB H. Langi (Questionable, Concussion), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't put up big numbers -- his 3,502 passing yards in 2016 were a career high -- and has been tagged with the label of game manager, but the former No. 1 overall pick has tossed only 28 interceptions versus 76 scoring passes in four seasons in Kansas City. With the departure of veteran Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the top target following a flashy rookie season in which he amassed 12 touchdowns -- six via scoring passes, three on the ground and three in the air. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt, a third-round pick who piled up nearly 5,000 yards over four seasons at Toledo, ascended to the starting job when Spencer Ware underwent season ending knee surgery, while Travis Kelce is widely considered the league's No. 2 tight end behind New England's Rob Gronkowski. There's plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, with perennial Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry leading a secondary that tied for the league high in interceptions, and Dee Ford and linebacker Justin Houston providing a pass rush that needs to pressure Brady.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2017: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Brady missed the first four games in 2016 while under suspension for the Deflategate saga, but returned to throw for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions before capping the season with a record 466-yard performance in the stunning comeback in Super Bowl LI. Edelman was Brady's most trusted target with at least 92 catches in three of the past four seasons, but Cooks provides a dynamic big-play threat with 17 scoring passes over the past two years in New Orleans while touchdown machine Gronkowski (68 in 88 games) returns after back surgery ended his season after eight contests. New England was willing to let LeGarrette Blount and his NFL-high 18 rushing TDs leave via free agency, bringing in Mike Gillislee from Buffalo and Rex Burkhead from Cincinnati to go with Super Bowl hero James White in the backfield. New England led the league with an average of 15.6 points allowed last season and bolstered the defense with the signing of free-agent cornerback Stephen Gilmore, who registered a career-best five interceptions for Buffalo in 2016.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Patriots are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
* Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road pup Chiefs at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals action.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Seven months removed from the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history that burnished the legacies of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots open the 2017 season on Thursday night against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. Emotions should be high as the Patriots celebrate their fifth world championship in a pregame ceremony.
Brady, who turned 40 last month, became the first quarterback in history to win five Super Bowl titles, rallying New England from a 25-point deficit in the second half to a 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons. New England, the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champ in 2003-04, was not content to stand pat in the offseason and brought in an elite wide receiver in Brandin Cooks -- an acquisition even more noteworthy after fellow wideout Julian Edelman suffered a season-ending knee injury last month. The Chiefs face a daunting challenge against a club that has won 24 in a row at home against non-division AFC opponents, but they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, having won 23 games over the past two seasons and claiming the AFC West title in 2016 with a 12-4 mark. "If you're in this business, that's what you thrive on, and I'd tell you both sides feel that way," Kansas City coach Andy Reid said of facing the Patriots. "The players, that's why they play the game. They want to play against the best. You want to coach against the best -- that's a beautiful thing."
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.5
LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as seven-point home favorites way back when lines were first released in April. The public bet the defending champs steadily all summer and, as of Wednesday evening, the line was at -9. The total originally hit the betting boards at 50 and was dropped slightly down to 48.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Kansas City overachieved big time last season. Their stats were not indicative of their straight-up record, so the Chiefs will likely regress this season. New England is the best team in the NFL, even with the loss of WR Edelman. A deep group of speedy wide receivers makes their offense even more potent than before." - Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Chiefs - LB D. Johnson (Probable, Achilles), K. C. Santos (Probable, Groin), OL C. Irving (Probable, Calf), TE T. Kelce (Probable, Calf), OL P. Ehinger (Probable, Knee), LB R. Ragland (Probable, Knee), DB R. Parker (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Nicolas (Out, Knee), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (IR, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), LB T. Hali (Out, Knee).
Patriots - LB E. Roberts (Probable, Ribs), WR M. Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), OL C. Flemming (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Questionable, Knee), DL A. Butler (Questionable, Knee), DB N. Ebner (Questionable, Shoulder), LB H. Langi (Questionable, Concussion), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't put up big numbers -- his 3,502 passing yards in 2016 were a career high -- and has been tagged with the label of game manager, but the former No. 1 overall pick has tossed only 28 interceptions versus 76 scoring passes in four seasons in Kansas City. With the departure of veteran Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill becomes the top target following a flashy rookie season in which he amassed 12 touchdowns -- six via scoring passes, three on the ground and three in the air. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt, a third-round pick who piled up nearly 5,000 yards over four seasons at Toledo, ascended to the starting job when Spencer Ware underwent season ending knee surgery, while Travis Kelce is widely considered the league's No. 2 tight end behind New England's Rob Gronkowski. There's plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, with perennial Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry leading a secondary that tied for the league high in interceptions, and Dee Ford and linebacker Justin Houston providing a pass rush that needs to pressure Brady.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2017: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Brady missed the first four games in 2016 while under suspension for the Deflategate saga, but returned to throw for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions before capping the season with a record 466-yard performance in the stunning comeback in Super Bowl LI. Edelman was Brady's most trusted target with at least 92 catches in three of the past four seasons, but Cooks provides a dynamic big-play threat with 17 scoring passes over the past two years in New Orleans while touchdown machine Gronkowski (68 in 88 games) returns after back surgery ended his season after eight contests. New England was willing to let LeGarrette Blount and his NFL-high 18 rushing TDs leave via free agency, bringing in Mike Gillislee from Buffalo and Rex Burkhead from Cincinnati to go with Super Bowl hero James White in the backfield. New England led the league with an average of 15.6 points allowed last season and bolstered the defense with the signing of free-agent cornerback Stephen Gilmore, who registered a career-best five interceptions for Buffalo in 2016.
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Patriots are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
* Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road pup Chiefs at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals action.
NFL Tech Trends
KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Belichick 1-2-1 vs. line last four openers. Pats also 9-3-3 vs. line at home in reg season since 2015. Andy Reid only 2-2 vs. points last four openers and 4-5 as road dog since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Belichick 1-2-1 vs. line last four openers. Pats also 9-3-3 vs. line at home in reg season since 2015. Andy Reid only 2-2 vs. points last four openers and 4-5 as road dog since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
CFB Trend Report
8:00 PM
IDAHO STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Idaho State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah State
Idaho State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah State is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
8:00 PM
IDAHO STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Idaho State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah State
Idaho State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Utah State is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
