Thursday's Top Action
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (0-0) vs. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (0-0)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: South Carolina -3, Total: 64.5
Two schools look to improve upon mediocre seasons when South Carolina and North Carolina clash in Thursday's opener in Charlotte.
After three straight 11-win seasons from 2011 to 2013, the Gamecocks won just seven games in the 2014 campaign, going 7-6 SU and 5-7-1 ATS. While their defense should be able to improve with eight returning starters, the offense brought back only four starters and lost both RB Mike Davis and QB Dylan Thompson, who threw for 3,574 yards and 26 touchdowns. His replacement is sophomore QB Connor Mitch, who attempted only six passes in his freshman season.
North Carolina was a disappointing 6-7 SU (5-8 ATS) last season, but the offense departed with only one starter. Dual-threat QB Marquise Williams is ready to shine after suffering through a hip injury last season. The Tar Heels posted a strong 33.2 PPG last season (36th in FBS), but couldn't stop anybody and surrendered 39.0 PPG (10th-worst in nation) on 498 total YPG (9th-worst in FBS). In non-home games, these numbers ballooned to 43.4 PPG and 525 total YPG allowed.
These teams last met in 2013 when the host Gamecocks rolled to a 27-10 victory thanks to a 228-99 rushing advantage. South Carolina also won the previous meeting in Chapel Hill in 2007 by a 21-15 score.
The only two significant absences in this game are both on UNC, which will be without LB Tyrell Tomlin (eligibility) for the entire season and CB Malik Simmons (suspension) for the first two games. Both these schools have suffered slow starts the past two seasons, as the Tar Heels are just 1-9 ATS in the first half of the past two years while the Gamecocks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in August and September.
The Gamecocks threw the ball effectively last year with 282.4 passing yards per game (20th in nation), and expect 6-foot-3, 211-pound QB Connor Mitch (2-for-6, 19 yds) to stand tall in the pocket and show off his strong arm that made him a four-star recruit out of high school. His favorite target will be WR Pharoh Cooper (69 rec, 1,136 yds, 9 TD) who capped off a brilliant sophomore season with 710 receiving yards in the final six games. RBs Brandon Wilds (570 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 4 TD) and David Williams (256 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 2 TD) will handle the bulk of the rushing load with star RB Mike Davis now in the NFL.
Defensively, South Carolina needed a major defensive overhaul after allowing a robust 30.4 PPG (89th in nation) and 433 total YPG (92nd in FBS), including 212 rushing YPG (105th in nation). The school hired long-time NFL assistant Jon Hoke and paired him with Lorenzo Ward as co-defensive coordinators. The duo certainly has some talent to work with, most notably 325-pound DT Gerald Dixon and LB Skai Moore (93 tackles) in the front seven. CBs Rico Williams and Chris Lammons will return to starting spots along with S Isaiah Johnson, who was an All-Big 12 honorable mention at Kansas.
Despite having the nation's worst time of possession (25:28), the Tar Heels were still able to crank out 430 total YPG (45th in FBS), including 278 passing YPG (27th in nation). QB Marquise Williams (3,073 pass yds, 7.2 YPA, 21 TD, 9 INT) completed 63% of his passes last season and has his top four receivers back to work with. While WR Ryan Switzer (762 rec yds, 4 TD) is the most frequented target, Williams also loves throwing the ball deep to use the great size of 6-foot-4 WR Mack Hollins (613 rec yds, 17.5 avg, 8 TD), 6-foot-4 WR Quinshad Davis (470 rec yds, 6 TD) and 6-foot-5 WR Bug Howard (455 rec yds, 2 TD). The running game is also in great shape with the legs of Marquise Williams (783 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 13 TD) and top RB T.J. Logan (582 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 3 TD).
New defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has a tall task to improve a unit that was deficient in nearly every area. Chizik has implemented a 4-3 defense and will rely heavily on 300-pound DT Nazair Jones (35 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and LB Jeff Schoettmer (74 tackles, 2 INT return TD) to stop the run. The secondary took a while to gel, but did show improvement last year with CBs Des Lawrence (71 tackles) and Brian Walker (3 INT) playing much better in the second half of the season.
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (0-0) at UTAH UTES (0-0)
Rice-Eccles Stadium - Salt Lake City, UT
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Utah -5.5, Total: 46
The Jim Harbaugh era begins on Thursday when the new head coach of Michigan leads his team into a tough environment at Utah.
The Wolverines had a season to forget in 2014, going 5-7 (SU and ATS) with five of those defeats coming by at least two touchdowns. One of those big losses was at home to the Utes, a 26-10 defeat on Sept. 20 where they committed four turnovers and failed to score a point in the second half. But Michigan is not only excited to have the former 49ers head coach leading its program, but brings back 17 starters to try to improve upon the disappointment of last season.
Utah's confidence is sky-high after going 9-4 (SU and ATS) last season and returning 14 starters, seven on offense and seven on defense. The team had a difficult time rushing the football in Ann Arbor last year (81 yards on 37 carries), but still wound up averaging 190 rushing YPG (39th in FBS) for the season. Although the Utes are 7-0 ATS in non-conference play in the past two seasons, they are a dismal 23-43 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
While Utah has no significant injuries to report, Michigan has dismissed WR Dennis Norfleet from the team, and both WR Freddy Canteen (arm) and OL Patrick Kugler (leg) are questionable for Thursday.
Once new head coach Jim Harbaugh announces a starter between QBs Jake Rudock (2,436 pass yds, 7.1 YPC, 16 TD, 5 INT) and Shane Morris (128 pass yds, 3.2 YPC, 0 TD, 3 INT), the pro-style offense should be much more potent than last year's squad that managed only 20.9 PPG (109th in nation) and 333 total YPG (112th in FBS). Rudock has most likely won the job and will frequently look for top WR Amara Darboh (473 rec yds, 2 TD) and TE Jake Butt (211 rec yds, 2 TD).
The ground game was serviceable last year with 163 YPG (62nd in FBS), and returns the top three rushers in RBs De'Veon Smith (519 rush yds, 6 TD), Derrick Green (471 rush yds, 3 TD) and Drake Johnson (361 rush yds, 4 TD) to run behind an experienced offensive line returning four starters, including three seniors.
New defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who held the same job at Florida, has plenty to work with on a unit that held opponents to 22.4 PPG (27th in FBS) and 311 total YPG last season (7th in nation). DT Chris Wormley (3 sacks) and LB Desmond Morgan (79 tackles in 2013), who missed last year with an injured arm, lead the front seven, while the top-notch secondary will once again rely on CB Jourdan Lewis (39 tackles, 2 INT) and FS Jarrod Wilson (50 tackles) to lead the secondary.
The Utah offense revolves around senior RB Devontae Booker (1,512 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 10 TD), who averaged 133 rushing yards per game in the final 10 contests of the 2014 season. His presence takes the pressure off efficient QB Travis Wilson (2,170 pass yds, 18 TD, 5 INT) who completed 61% of his throws last season. Wilson's go-to receiver is clearly WR Kenneth Scott (506 rec yds, 4 TD), but other pass catchers will need to emerge to keep double-teams away from the senior.
New defensive coordinator John Pease loves the fact that he inherits a defense that led the nation in sacks (4.2 per game), and will need DE Hunter Dimick (10 sacks), NT Lowe Lotulelei (4 sacks) and LB Jared Norris (116 tackles) to seriously help a weak secondary that surrendered 247 passing YPG last year (90th in nation).
The Utes' run defense was serviceable last season with 147 YPG (41st in FBS), but they'll need to force more turnovers from a year ago. Despite the mediocre 21 takeaways, Utah managed to score four defensive touchdowns.
TCU HORNED FROGS (0-0) at MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (0-0)
TCF Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN
Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -14.5, Total: 57.5
No. 2 TCU looks to embark on a championship season Thursday when it opens up the 2015 campaign at Minnesota.
After a dreadful 4-8 season in 2013, the Horned Frogs put together a huge 2014 campaign, going 12-1 SU (11-2 ATS) with an offense that put up 46.5 points per game (2nd in nation) and 533 total yards per game (5th in FBS). Much of that was due to the play of Heisman hopeful QB Trevone Boykin, who is one of nine offensive starters to return to Fort Worth this season. TCU also boasted a top-notch defense that allowed only 19.0 PPG (8th in nation) on 342 YPG (18th in FBS). The Horned Frogs put so much pressure on opposing quarterbacks (3.1 sacks per game, 11th in nation; 8.6 TFL per game, 2nd in FBS) that the secondary was able to lead the nation with 26 interceptions. Three of those picks came against Minnesota in TCU's 30-7 blowout in Fort Worth last September. The Golden Gophers were able to dominate time of possession (34:25 to 25:35), but were held to 99 yards on 39 carries and turned the ball over five times.
Minnesota (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2014) has been profitable for bettors in the past two seasons with a 17-9 ATS mark overall, including 10-4 ATS at home. Star RB David Cobb is gone to the NFL, but the ground game should still remain strong (216 YPG, 28th in nation) with all five starting offensive linemen returning. Without Cobb, Minnesota may opt to throw the football more than its meager 19.5 passing attempts per game in 2014 (7th-fewest in FBS). Returning QB Mitch Leidner was pretty efficient on his throws, as the Golden Gophers ranked 12th in the nation in yards per completion (14.52).
TCU benefits from the fact that good offensive teams from last season (31+ PPG) in non-conference BCS games were 34-7 ATS (83%) when favored between 10.5 and 21 points. However, the Horned Frogs have not been a strong bet in this scenario, going 2-10 ATS as a road favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.
In last season's blowout of the Golden Gophers, QB Trevone Boykin (3,901 pass yds, 7.9 YPA, 33 TD, 10 INT) tossed 19 incomplete passes (27-of-46), but still racked up 350 total yards of offense, as he threw for 258 yards and 2 TD, while adding 92 yards on 12 carries. Much of Boykin's success through the air was due to targeting top WR Josh Doctson (1,018 rec yds, 11 TD) who returns for his senior season. An injured hand has hindered Doctson in fall practice, but he's listed as probable for Thursday's opener. In last year's meeting with Minnesota, Doctson caught both of Boykin's touchdown throws and finished with six receptions for 64 yards.
The TCU offense should remain very balanced with the return of senior RB Aaron Green (922 rush yds, 7.1 YPC, 9 TD) to run behind a beefy offensive line that returns four seniors.
On defense, the Frogs did an outstanding job stuffing the run last year with 108.8 rushing YPG allowed (9th in nation) on an FBS-low 2.78 YPC. This was a big reason why the team ranked second in FBS on third downs, limiting opponents to a paltry 28% conversion rate. DEs James McFarland and Terrell Lathan (12.5 sacks combined) are two of five senior starters returning to Fort Worth. The secondary still needs work after allowing 233 passing YPG (75th in nation), but FS Derrick Kindred (4 INT) is a ballhawk.
Minnesota will likely use a committee to replace RB David Cobb, who gained 1,626 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground last year. RB Rodrick Williams Jr. (114 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 3 TD) should get the bulk of carries with RBs Berkley Edwards (140 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 2 TD) and redshirt freshman Rodney Smith backing him up. QB Mitch Leidner (452 rush yds, 10 TD) will continue to use his legs to move the chains.
In the passing game, Leidner (1,798 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 11 TD, 8 INT) will miss star TE Maxx Williams, and will need to rely more on WRs KJ Maye (298 rec yds) and 6-foot-3 sophomore Drew Wolitarsky (106 rec yds).
The Gophers should remain solid on defense, as they return seven starters to a unit that limited opponents to 24.2 PPG (33rd in FBS) on 368 total YPG (39th in nation). The leaders of the defense are DL Theiren Cockran (4 sacks), LB De'Vondre Campbell (75 tackles) and CB Eric Murray (69 tackles, 7 PBU). Minnesota was very opportunistic in 2014 by forcing 30 turnovers (11th in FBS), but was dreadful in the red zone, allowing opponents to score 90% of the time they got inside the 20-yard-line (114th in nation).
