Thursday 9/29/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 18:00

H Beer Sheva

v

Southampton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT3		12/5	12/5	13/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT H BEER SHEVA	RECENT FORM
ADHWAWALADAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HDALHWHWHWAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hapoel have a 100 per cent home record this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Hapoel Beer Sheva started their Europa League campaign with a stunning 2-0 success at Serie A giants Inter and they can also overcome Southampton. The Israeli side missed out on a Champions League spot to Celtic but they beat the Bhoys at home and this looks a tricky trip for Saints.

RECOMMENDATION: Hapoel Beer Sheva
2


REFEREE: Stefan Johannesson STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Man Utd

v

Zorya

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		1/7	8	25	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAN UTD	RECENT FORM
AWHLALALAWHW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HWALHDHDAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Zorya scored 51 league goals last season - only three fewer than champions Dynamo Kiev

EXPERT VERDICT: Manchester United’s first Europa League group home game looks a formality but it could be worth backing Zorya to get on the scoresheet. The Ukranian side have scored in six of their seven European away games and may be able to get at United’s shaky-looking defence.

RECOMMENDATION: Man Utd to win 3-1
1


REFEREE: Orel Grinfeld STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ryder Cup Preview

Are You Willing to Lay the Juice on the USA in the Ryder Cup?

We are now just a few weeks away from the 2016 Ryder Cup and with US Captain Davis Love III naming three of his four 'captain's picks' earlier today, the teams are almost entirely set.

Only one more pick from Love III has to be made, and it will come at the conclusion of the Fedex Cup Playoffs on Sept 25. So now that Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, and J.B. Holmes have been added to the US side, can they help the rest of this US team break this Ryder Cup funk they are in? Are you willing to lay -175 for that to happen?

Ryder Cup Odds: To win Ryder Cup (Tie no bet) – USA (-175), Europe (+150)

Those three names mentioned above all have previous Ryder Cup experience and that appears to be an early strength for the US. Only one US player – Brooks Koepka – has never experienced what it feels like to play in a Ryder Cup atmosphere and with it being on home soil for the Americans this year, they are banking heavily on talent and experience.

Conversely, Team Europe has six Ryder Cup rookies on their squad (Danny Willett, Chris Wood, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Andy Sullivan, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Thomas Pieters) and that's part of the reason why the “visitors” are getting +150 odds even as the defending champs.

But no matter what kind of advantage on paper the US team has had in the past they haven't had much success in winning this event. They've lost three straight Ryder Cups to Europe, and eight of the past 10 overall. So is the -175 price on the US warranted?

When the entire US team is ranked 26th or better in the world, it's going to look on paper that the US deserve the heavy favorite price tag.

Dustin Johnson has had a spectacular year in winning the US Open and appears to be soon adding the Fedex Cup Playoffs to that list. He will definitely be counted on to earn the lion's share of the points in his matches, but he's also been known as someone who will pack it in quickly when things aren't going well. That's not exactly the best type of player to have in a short event like the Ryder Cup.

Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, and Brooks Koepka have been quite consistent all season as well, but none of them have played in more than a single Ryder Cup in their careers with Koepka being a rookie.

Experience might be a motto for the US team in 2016, but when five of the players only have one Ryder Cup event under their belts, how much can a bettor really value said experience?

Even with six rookies on Team Europe, the remaining six players have all been in at least three different Ryder Cups and were part of winning teams at least twice.

The most experienced US player is Phil Mickelson with 10 previous Ryder Cup events under his belt, but he's got an overall losing record in this event at 16 wins, 19 losses, and 6 halves. That's not a record that speaks to dominance, or even some sense of coming through in the clutch, so let me ask again, are you willing to lay -175 on this US squad?

Obviously some Ryder Cup experience is better than nothing and with so many rookies on Team Europe getting their first crack at it on foreign soil, you can understand why odds makers had to price this line the way that they did.

But being a rookie in an event like this isn't always a negative as the sheer obliviousness to the large scale of the situation can be a huge plus for young talented golfers. Team Europe has gone down a similar road before with young players in this event and with eight victories in the last 10, it's tough to argue against their methods.

So even with one remaining player yet to be named for the US side, it's very hard to see how laying this steep price of -175 is a good bet at this stage. USA historically always gets off to a slow start in this event – as some criticize them as simply a team of individuals who struggle in team rounds – and puts on a strong charge late when the singles matches take place.

Typically the goal for the USA in that scenario is to stay close enough in points so that they can either catch up or run away with it in singles. Either way, if this tournament plays out to a similar script, bettors looking to back the USA will definitely get a better price during the event. So, NO I am not willing to lay the -175 with the USA right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UConn at Houston
By Joe Nelson

While there is a Big XII game on the schedule, there is certainly more intrigue in Thursday’s ESPN game between Connecticut and Houston. The Cougars have the country’s attention as a College Football Playoff candidate outside of the Power 5 conferences and this week’s Thursday night game is a matchup vs. Connecticut, the only team that beat Houston last season.

Match-up: Connecticut Huskies at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 29, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Houston -28, Over/Under 50
Last Meeting: 2015, at Connecticut (+10) 20, Houston 17

Tom Herman has coached Houston in 18 games with only one loss. That loss came last November at Connecticut as a 10-0 Houston squad fell short 20-17 as a road favorite. The caveat is that Greg Ward, Jr. did not start at quarterback with an injured ankle. He did appear for the final series after his replacement Kyle Postma was also injured late in the game, eventually throwing an interception on Houston’s final drive. The statistics in that game were quite even, but Houston had four turnovers alhtough the Cougars also did score on a kickoff return touchdown.

Houston has opened the 2016 season at 4-0 with the big opening week statement win over Oklahoma. The Cougars also won in primetime two weeks ago at Cincinnati in a much closer game than the 40-16 final indicated. This will be the first true FBS home game for the Cougars as the opener was at NRG Stadium and the home opener was a 42-0 win over FCS Lamar. Houston is currently ranked #6 in the AP Poll and Herman is certainly garnering attention as a candidate for the recent opening at LSU, though those conversations seem unlikely to take place at this point in the season.

Connecticut is 2-2 this season coming off a solid 6-7 season that featured a bowl bid last season, the program’s first postseason trip since 2010. The Huskies are 0-1 in AAC play losing at Navy, but they split two games vs. ACC competition the past two weeks at home, beating Virginia but losing to Syracuse. All four games for Connecticut have been single-score games with lower scoring as the season high output for the Huskies is just 24 points, actually a touchdown increase over last season’s scoring average of just 17.2 points per game.

Connecticut has been out-gained in all three of its FBS games as the Huskies had a 104 yard deficit vs. Virginia despite the win. Bob Diaco is known as a defensive coach as Notre Dame’s former defensive coordinator now in his third season in Storrs. This season’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play this season, but only 3.8 yards per rush while holding opposing quarterbacks below 60 percent completions. It was the defense that keyed the home upset in this matchup last season, but Connecticut is just 2-9 S/U on the road since Diaco took over the program.

Houston’s offense has deserved attention with almost 45 points per game this season, but that average is a bit inflated with 106 points vs. FCS Lamar and FBS bottom-feeder Texas State. Three touchdowns also came on defense and special teams in the notable wins over Oklahoma and Cincinnati to boost the numbers as well.

It has really been Houston’s defense that has catapulted the program into the national spotlight, allowing just 229 yards per game this season with incredible numbers against the run, allowing just 1.5 yards per carry and 37 rushing yards per game. Run defense was a strong area for the defense last season as well, finishing the season allowing just 3.2 yards per carry allowed and more impressively not once allowing a team over a 3.9 yards per rush average for the game in 14 games that included matchups vs. strong rushing teams like Louisville, Cincinnati, Navy, and Florida State.

With the running game likely offering little support, Connecticut will need to make some plays in the air, though last season the Huskies had just one 300 yards passing game all season. At quarterback for Connecticut is junior Bryant Shirreffs, who has modest numbers this season, posting a very similar pace to last season’s production figures. He has completed nearly 67 percent of his passes after barely topping 60 percent last season, but he also has as many interceptions as touchdowns through four weeks.

Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. has won 17 straight games that he has started and he’ll certainly go down as an all-time great at Houston, joining Andre Ware, David Klingler, Kevin Kolb, and Case Keenum. His statistics are modest this season and he didn’t play in the win over Lamar as prospects as a Heisman Trophy candidate are minimal even with some early season attention. With just five touchdowns passes, he won’t pass the records of those highly prolific passers, but he is leading a team that can have a historic season on the national stage, with avenging last season’s only loss the next step.

Historical Trends: Connecticut is 8-25 S/U and 10-22-1 ATS in road games since 2010, including 2-9 S/U and 3-8 ATS under Diaco since 2014. Connecticut is just 7-18 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 though going back to 2000 the Huskies are 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 20 or more points, though three of those four covers came at home.

Houston has thrived in the road underdog role with incredible recent ATS results but at home the numbers are modest, going 20-7 S/U and just 14-17 ATS at home since 2012. Houston is 9-0 S/U under Herman at home but just 4-5 ATS. Houston is also just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, suffering three S/U home favorite losses in the 2014 season under Tony Levine. Houston is 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more since 2009, though just 2-3 ATS under Herman in that heavy favorite role while going 0-3 ATS in Herman’s home games at that price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Game of the Day: Connecticut at Houston

Connecticut Huskies at No. 7 Houston Cougars (-28, 51)

Seventh-ranked Houston gets a chance to avenge its only loss from last year when it hosts Connecticut in an American Athletic Conference game Thursday night. Both starting quarterbacks missed the majority of last year's meeting - a 20-17 UConn home victory- but return healthy for the rematch.

Houston's Greg Ward Jr., who didn't play at UConn because of an ankle injury until backup Kyle Postma was injured late in the fourth quarter, has won 17 straight as the Cougars' starter. The Cougars, looking to begin 5-0 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history, recorded at least 40 points and 500 total yards in three straight games. Bryant Shirreffs, who left last year's game with a concussion on the second series, helped the Huskies overcome slow starts in all four games. UConn has been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter this season before having all four games decided by seven or fewer points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Houston has drawn heavy chalk in this AAC matchup, hitting the board as 27.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -28 since then. The total has also been bet up, going from its opening number of 50.5 to the current number of 51.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The majority of action on Houston, where we have almost 80 percent of the wagers, is from the square contingent. But we've had a couple of sharps hit the Cougars as well, which prompted the bump two points to -30. It feels like this could come down before it goes up." - Odds consultant Scott Cooley.

INJURY REPORT:

Connecticut - RB N. Hopkins (probable Thursday, leg), OL B. Vechery (probable Thursday, leg), OL T. Rutherford (probable Thursday, undisclosed), LB J. Hicks (questionable Thursday, leg), OL T. Hopkins (questionable Thursday, leg), LB O. Stephens (questionable Thursday, leg), OL D. Oak (out Thursday, undisclosed).

Houston - CB B. Wilson (questionable Thursday, leg), OL M. Long (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), OL A. Fontana (questionable Thursday, elbow), RB M. Car (out Thursday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Houston. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid to low 70's for the game. There could be a seven to eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (2-2, 0-3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Shirreffs threw for 819 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and rushed for another score. Noel Thomas Jr. (40 receptions, 388 yards, one TD) has nearly half of UConn's catches (81) and receiving yards (861) after a 14-catch performance against Syracuse. The Huskies were stopped at the goal line in losses to Navy (as time expired) and Syracuse (late in the fourth quarter), and got late game-winning field goals from Bobby Puyol (5-of-5 in field goals and 10-of-10 on extra points) in their two wins.

ABOUT HOUSTON (4-0, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Ward (936 passing yards, five touchdowns and 113 rushing yards, three TDs) leads a balanced offense that's averaging 44.8 points. Senior linebacker Steven Taylor (tied for second nationally with 5.5 total sacks) leads a unit that is ranked first in the nation in rushing defense (37 yards), fourth in scoring defense (10.5 points) and fifth in total defense (228.8 yards). The Cougars held six straight opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, including three straight (Texas State, 33; Cincinnati, 30; Lamar, 15) to 33 or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus a team with a winning record.
* Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Houston's last seven home games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are having no problem laying all those points with the home team, as a whopping 76 percent of wagers are backing Houston. As for the total, an even bigger majority is backing the Over, with 81 percent of wagers on it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Huskies (2-2) at Cougars (4-0)

Date: September 29, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- Players and coaches for sixth-ranked Houston might not use the exact phrase to describe Thursday's contest against UConn at TDECU Stadium.

Whether classified as a "revenge game" publicly or not, expect the Cougars to be looking for a little payback against the only team to beat them in 2015 while they're the focus of college football's national spotlight.

The Cougars (4-0, 1-0 in the American Athletic Conference) were denied a perfect season last year when UConn posted a 20-17 home victory on Nov. 15 when Houston was No. 13 in the country. The Cougars went on to win the AAC Championship game over Temple and then waylaid Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and have been perfect so far in 2016.

Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. played sparingly in last year's upset because of an ankle injury while star linebacker Elandon Roberts was ejected early due to a targeting call.

"There's some added motivation for this one," Houston coach Tom Herman said Monday at his weekly media availability. "We don't have much to talk about, but I do believe that our returning players on our team are better than they were last season. We don't see this game as a chance for redemption but there is a bit of internal sense of liability, of atonement, to right some of the wrongs that occurred."

Houston has lost just one football game in Herman's 18-game tenure in the Bayou City, but he said the team won't focus on what happened last season.

"It's not something you forget about," Houston defensive end Cameron Malveaux said. "We were 10-0 and on a roll. Being crushed like that stayed with us, but we are looking at it as another step towards our goal of getting to the conference championship."

Houston comes into Thursday's game off a 64-3 walloping of Texas State on the road in which the Cougars played a nearly flawless game. Houston outgained Texas State 563-142 (429-82 in the first half), outrushed the Bobcats 243-33 and had 32 first downs to Texas State's eight. The Cougars scored on their first seven possessions while fashioning a 43-3 halftime lead and had no turnovers or penalties.

"I was proud of the strides that the offensive made - they played well," Herman said. "It wasn't that they were playing awful. In the Cincinnati game (on Sept. 15), we were shooting ourselves in the foot in critical situations. The offense did a much better job (against Texas State) finding a rhythm and finishing drives. "

UConn (2-2, 0-1 American) heads to Houston on the heels of a 31-24 loss at home to Syracuse on Sept. 24 in which the Huskies owned significant advantages in time of possession (38:29-21:31), total plays (91-66) and rushing yards (144-62).

Syracuse receiver Amba Etta-Tawo amassed 270 yards via 12 catches and two first-quarter touchdowns and UConn quarterback Bryant Shirreffs threw a pick-six late in the third quarter that all but doomed the Huskies.

"We had a couple of plays that created, really, a 21-point gift - and you can't win like that," UConn coach Bob Diaco said.

"Saturday's game was tough because we can see how close these games are and how good we've become. There's still been a few moments that have created losing and prevented winning. It's not a complacent attitude for sure. The team has gotten better every week in all three phases. For some reason, in all four games, we have had a few explosive plays in the passing games. That's not a characteristic of how we play. Those plays have made the games harder than they need to be."

Diaco understands that his team will have its hands full with Ward, who passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 39 yards and another score in just over two quarters of play against Texas State.

"Ward has great pocket presence and utilizes movement back there to create opportunities - he's not just scrambling to run," Diaco said. "He puts their offense into good plays and has high intelligence about how to run their offense. He's one of the premier quarterbacks in the nation."

Houston opened as a 24½ point favorite to win the grudge match with UConn. But Diaco knows his team will not back down and is buoyed by the win last year against Houston, no matter the circumstances.

"We are tough minded group and one that believes in itself," Diaco said. "There is great clarity and strong leadership on this team."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinal (3-0) at Huskies (4-0)

Date: September 30, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Washington is back in a lofty position in the polls. But the 10th-ranked Huskies' staying power will be tested Friday night.

Washington will play host to No. 7 Stanford on Friday night at 9 p.m. ET in the first matchup of top 10 teams at Husky Stadium in 19 years. The outcome could go a long way in determining the Pac-12 North and which team moves on as the league's favorite to get to the College Football Playoff.

"It's awesome, no question about it," said Washington coach Chris Petersen.

"Stanford's an awesome program. I'll start with that -- program. This isn't just an awesome team. They've had an awesome program here for a while now. They know how to do it right and play good football, win championships. So it's a great opportunity for the kids, and for everybody playing in a game like this."

The Huskies (4-0 overall, 1-0 Pac-12) played a soft non-conference slate of Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State before surviving a road game at Arizona, 35-28 in overtime Saturday night. Stanford (3-0, 2-0) is much more battle-tested, having defeated Kansas State, USC and UCLA.

The Cardinal, too, was taken to the brink last week, scoring a go-ahead touchdown with 24 seconds left and adding a fumble return for a score on the final play in a 22-13 victory at the Rose Bowl. Coach David Shaw was pleased how new starting quarterback Ryan Burns reacted to the do-or-die final drive after struggling for much of the game.

"There is no substituting the environment he was in," Shaw said after Monday's practice. "Not playing a great game ... and coming back with a chance to win at the end of the game, you can't duplicate that.

"And you can't duplicate what we're going to face this week: Top 10 opponent, in their house. It's going to be loud. You're not going to be able to hear a thing. I think that environment, you don't know how you're going to respond until you're in it."

Stanford has won 15 of its past 16 games and has tied a school-record by winning seven consecutive Pac-12 road games. The Cardinal has won three of the past four conference championships.

Stanford also has won seven of the past eight meetings against Washington, including 31-14 last season. Cardinal star running back Christian McCaffrey gained 109 rushing yards and 112 receiving yards, including a 50-yard touchdown, in that game.

McCaffrey, by his standards, had an abnormally quiet game last week with 138 rushing yards and no touchdowns against UCLA. But Washington yielded 308 rushing yards in its overtime win over Arizona, including 173 to quarterback Brandon Dawkins.

The Huskies' defense, led by safety Budda Baker, cornerback Sidney Jones and linebacker Azeem Victor, is tied for the national lead with 13 takeaways. They are 15th in scoring defense, allowing 14.5 points per game.

The Stanford defense, fueled by defensive tackle Solomon Thomas, is allowing 12.0 points per game against a tougher schedule.

Washington quarterback Jake Browning is third nationally in passing efficiency (194.9), with 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He didn't play in last season's loss to Stanford because of injury.

Shaw said he is worried about Washington's offensive speed, which includes receiver John Ross, tailback Myles Gaskin and tailback Lavon Coleman, who was an unlikely hero with a career-best 181 yards against Arizona.

"Speed everywhere," Shaw said. "Their running backs have speed. Their receivers have speed. It used to be that you had to worry about that No. 1 guy (Ross) running by you. Now it's a bunch of guys."

Stanford likely has more speed that it gets credit for, as McCaffrey is not the only weapon on offense. Wide receiver Michael Rector has 4.4 speed, receiver Trenton Irwin had a team-high seven catches last week against UCLA and backup running back Bryce Love had five carries for 51 yards. He has been working his way back from injury and should be close to 100 percent this week, Shaw said.

The Cardinal won't have receiver Francis Owusu, who suffered a concussion last week.

This will be the first top 10 matchup in Seattle since No. 7 Nebraska beat the No. 2 Huskies 27-14 in 1997. Washington, earlier this month, reached the top 10 for the first time since Nov. 4, 2001.

Are the Huskies all the way back?

Friday's spotlight game will begin to really tell the tale.

"I just want everyone to enjoy college football and be all in," Petersen said. "Players all in, fans all in, coaches, everybody ... all in."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday’s games
Kansas lost its two I-A games by 16-37 points; allowing 534 YR wth -8 turnover ratio. Jayhawks are 10-23-1 vs spread in last 34 games as a road dog. Texas Tech alloed 562 Y in last two games, 312+ PY in all three games; Tech won its last eight games with Kansas (1-2-1 vs spread last four). Jayhawks lost last four visits here, with three of four by 13 or less points. Red Raiders are 4-1 in last five games as a home favorite.


UConn (+10) was +4 in turnovers, upset Houston 20-17 LY– total yardage in game was 318-315 Houston. Huskies are 2-2 this year, with all four games decided by seven or less points- they’re 6-16 in last 22 games as a road underdog. Houston beat Oklahoma at home, won 40-16 at Cincinnati; they’re 5-9 vs spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Game opened at -23, has been bet up to -28, so not lot of support for UConn in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

KANSAS at TEXAS TECH... Jayhawks 8-19-1 as road dog since 2011, 3-9 as DD dog since LY, 1-8 last nine getting 20 or more. Though KU is 2-1-1 vs. line last four vs. TT. Red Raiders 2-0 as DD chalk TY after 4-6-1 in role for Kingsbury the previous three years.

Texas Tech, based on KU negatives.


UCONN at HOUSTON...Big revenge for UH after loss LY! Diaco only 3-7-1 as dog away from home since 2014, 7-21-1 overall vs. spread since 2014.

Slight to Houston, based on UConn negatives.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto

Records aren’t always what they seem in the NFL, as varying degrees of difficulty from schedule to schedule often plays tricks on the minds of bettors.

The Panthers and Bengals, for example, both fell to 1-2 with home defeats Sunday, but considering the teams Carolina (Denver, Minnesota) and Cincinnati (Pittsburgh, Denver) have lost to, it’s far too early to dismiss either.

Meanwhile, which of the five 3-0 clubs are for real?

It’s hard to make that case for Baltimore just yet. With their three wins coming against Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville (a combined record of 1-8), the Ravens still have plenty of convincing to do.

It’s easier to make the case for the Broncos, Vikings, Patriots and Eagles, as each has logged impressive wins.

So, as you’re handicapping Week 4 in the NFL, be prudent about how much weight you’re giving to records. Looks can be deceiving.

Here are Sunday night’s Las Vegas consensus lines for next week’s card. Totals are from CG Technology.

Thursday, Sept. 29

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

The Bengals have dropped two in a row, unable to hold serve at home Sunday against the Broncos following last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. The line for next week’s Thursday nighter opened a manageable -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, although that number didn’t last long, as it moved to -6.5 at the Westgate and opened -7 at other Vegas books.

The Dolphins, as 10-point favorites, needed overtime to get past the lowly Browns and third-string quarterback Cody Kessler on Sunday.

“It’s shocking how Miami plays up to certain teams and down to certain teams,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I’ve never understood that team for years now. At times they look good, and at times, it’s like how can they be this bad and stupid. They really should have lost today.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 4 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

October is upon us, as are bye weeks. The undefeated Eagles and improved Packers are the first two teams to get Sunday off, which means they’ll be in marathon mode going forward until 2017. While an early bye is never desirable, there are some teams that definitely need it more than Philadelphia and Green Bay, who are a combined 7-1 and relatively healthy. Others certainly can’t say the same. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 4:

Thursday, Sept. 29

Miami at Cincinnati: The Bengals get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from suspension to add some teeth to a defense that saw its secondary shredded for four touchdowns by Denver’s Trevor Siemian on Sunday. Unfortunately, DBs Dre Kirkpatrick and Derron Smith remained out of practice through Tuesday, while CBs Adam Jones and Darqueze Dennard join safeties Geroge Iloka and Shawn Williams in being banged-up. That should open the door for the Dolphins to continue airing it out offensively, especially with Ryan Tannehill coming in on a run of four 300-yard passing games over his last five. New head coach Adam Gase came on board looking to open things up and won’t have Arian Foster (groin) around to key the ground game as he misses his second consecutive game. Rookie Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi, who scored the game-winning TD against Cleveland, will again get the call working behind a potentially depleted offensive line certain to be without center Mike Pouncey (hip) and potentially backup Anthony Steen (ankle).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

If you are looking for this Thursday night's game on CBS or Twitter, you won't find it. The NFL Network keeps a few Thursday game to itself each year to boost the value of that channel, and this week's game between the Dolphins and Bengals is only on the NFL Network.

With both clubs at 1-2, it's pretty much a must-win game for any playoff chances. I never thought the Dolphins were going to be in the 2016 postseason and still have no reason to believe so. But Cincinnati has made the playoffs each of the past five seasons and I expected would again. A loss here really puts the pressure on Coach Marvin Lewis. He was on the hot seat entering the year considering the Bengals are 0-7 under him in the playoffs.

These teams haven't played since 2013. That was on a Halloween Thursday night in South Florida and Miami won 22-20 in overtime. Pretty unique ending there as Cameron Wake sacked Andy Dalton for a safety with 6:38 left in OT. I don't remember another game ending that way, although it was the third overtime safety in NFL history. The Bengals dominated that game statistically, including more than 40 minutes of possession, but turned it over four times.

Dolphins at Bengals Betting Story Lines

Miami is very fortunate to not be 0-3 as the Dolphins tried their hardest to blow Sunday's home opener vs. the Browns. That game really shouldn't have been close considering the Browns were minus their top two receivers, Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman, and starting a third-round rookie at quarterback for the first time in Cody Kessler. Miami was up 24-13 with 13 minutes left but the game was tied with about three minutes to go. With under 30 seconds to go, somehow Miami QB Ryan Tannehill managed to fumble the ball away on a sack. That's absolutely unforgivable that late in the game. But the Fins caught a break when Browns kicker Cody Parkey missed a 46-yard field goal as time expired in regulation. Miami won it on a Jay Ajayi 11-yard TD run in OT after Cleveland couldn't do anything offensively on its first possession.

The Miami defense left a lot to be desired in allowing the Browns 430 total yards and 169 rushing. But, a win is a win and a 2-2 record after four games would be pretty admirable considering the Dolphins' first two games were in Seattle and New England.

The Dolphins played Cleveland without starting tailback Arian Foster, and he's not expected to go here. Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake will split most of the carries. Out for sure is tight end Jordan Cameron, who suffered a concussion vs. the Browns. He has eight catches for 60 yards and a TD.

Cincinnati has played probably an even tougher schedule thus far than the Dolphins, winning Week 1 23-22 at the Jets but losing 24-16 Week 2 in Pittsburgh and then 29-17 last week in the team's home opener vs. Denver. The Bengals' pass defense was torched in that game, making Trevor Siemian look like John Elway as he threw for 312 yards, four TDs and no picks in his first career road start. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas had at least 100 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The good news is that defense will see the season debut of top linebacker Vontaze Burfict on Thursday. He was suspended the first three games following a dirty hit on Pittsburgh receiver Antonio Brown in last year's wild-card game. At worst, he should help the run game as when Burfict played last season, the Bengals allowed only 82.2 rushing yards per game. When he didn't, they allowed 109.2 rushing yards per game.

Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton leads the AFC with 938 passing yards and hasn't had Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert yet off ankle surgery. He returned to practice for the first time last week and could debut, although he will certainly be limited to a certain amount of snaps if he does play. Eifert's return should only help top receiver A.J. Green, who has been mostly quiet since a big Week 1 game.

Dolphins at Bengals Betting Odds and Trends

Cincinnati is a 7.5-point favorite (+120) with a total of 44.5. The Bengals are -280 on the moneyline and the Dolphins +240. On the alternate lines, the Bengals are -7 (+100) and -6.5 (-120). Miami is 1-2 against the spread this season (1-1 on road) and 2-1 "over/under" (1-1 on road). Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS (0-1 at home) and 2-1 O/U (1-0 at home).

The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven after a win. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their past four following a double-digit home loss. They are 13-5 ATS overall in their past 18 after a loss. The under is 7-0-1 in Miami's past eight on Thursday. The under is 6-0 in Cincinnati's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings.

Dolphins at Bengals Betting Prediction

The Bengals are just 27th in rushing and the Dolphins 31st in stopping the run. Cincinnati had some early success on the ground behind Jeremy Hill vs. Denver but then got away from it in the second half. Sticking with that should be a priority here. My Thursday night ATS slump ends this week. Give the 6.5-point alternate line and go under.

 

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Dolphins at Bengals

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)

Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).

Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.

 

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Week*4 NFL

Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week*4 NFL

Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Thursday Night Football'

This weeks Thursday Night'r involves a conference battle at Paul Brown Stadium between the host Cincinnati Bengals and visiting Miami Dolphins. Opening odds have yhe Bengals -7.0 point home favorite with the total set at 44.5.

Despite a home loss to the Broncos this past week, Marvin Lewis' troops have been good bets in front of the home audience. Since 2013 Bengals have posted a profitable 16-7-2 record against the betting line including 6-2 ATS laying -6.5 to -9.5 points. On the other side, Dolphins don't help themselves when when looking at certain numbers that are pertinent to circumstances. Miami squeeking past lowly Browns this past week does not bode well for the team. Dolphins are 1-9 SU, 2-7 ATS following a win the previous effort and roll into Cinci a money-burning 3-9 ATS as road underdogs of +6.5 to +9.5 points, 3-15 ATS vs an AFC opponent including 1-8 ATS in unfriendly territory.

More football betting ammunition against Miami. Playing on Sunday then turning around and playing again on Thursday is tough. But, more challenging for a road squad off a home game since they have the added stress of traveling. In the last fourty such situations road underdogs are 18-21-1 (43.9%) against the betting line. Not exactly the Midas Touch of NFL betting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 29

MIAMI at CINCINNATI (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami 6-18 last 24 on board but only 1-2 with Gase. Marvin Lewis just 6-7-1 as home chalk past two seasons but 12-7-1 in role back to 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

We got off to a good start on the week with five winners on top on the nine race card at Belmont Park on Wednesday, the winners returning $8.70, $8.90, $12.20, $4.30 and $7.80.

We have a busy weekend coming up with seven Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on Saturday, five at Santa Anita and two at Belmont Park.

The headliner on Saturday at Santa Anita is California Chrome, who will be sent off as the betting favorite in the $300,000 Awesome Again (G1), his final tune-up for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The Art Sherman trainee drew the rail and will face six foes including the Bob Baffert trained Dortmund, who was second to California Chrome in the San Diego Handicap (G2) and third in the Pacific Classic (G1) in his last two starts.

Beholder and Stellar Wind will renew their rivalry in the $300,000 Zenyatta (G1). Stellar Wind got the best of Beholder in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) earning a career top speed figure.

Beholder returned to take on the boys and attempt to defend her title in the Pacific Classic but was no match for California Chrome.

Flintshire is the marquee name running at Belmont Park on Saturday and scared away his competition as he will face only three foes in the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), his final prep for the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

The Vosburgh (G1) is a “Win and You’re In” race for the $1.5 million Breeders’ Cup and drew a solid field of eight including X Y Jet, A.P. Indian and Joking.

In total we have 11 stakes between Belmont Park and Santa Anita

I’ll sleep in on Sunday.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (1:30 ET)
#2 Zoo Yorker 8-5
#4 Best Man 5-1
#3 Ghareeb 3-1
#6 Tree Shaker 7-2

Analysis: Zoo Yorker returns off a two-month break after checking in fourth for a $25,000 tag last out against straight three-year-olds. The colt ran well two back at Churchill Downs against $15,000 non-winners of three or three-year-olds. He makes his first start her for the Baker barn that is coming off a big Spa meeting and is 17% winners overall with newcomers to the barn. He looks quick enough to be a pace factor in this spot.

Best Man tracked the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten 12th last out at this level in his first start off the claim by the RRod barn and first go off a 11-month layoff. He gets a jock upgrade to Ortiz and figures to show more second off the bench while catching a pretty weak group here.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Alw $50,000s (4:41 ET)
#7 Battle Tux 8-1
#5 Tizanillusion 8-5
#6 Gagaoveryou 7-2
#3 Ortiga 3-1

Analysis: Battle Tux took the field gate to wire to beat $40,000 non-winners of two last out at the Spa going 5 1/2 furlongs off a five-month layoff. The filly was making her first start on turf and first since a good looking maiden win on the main track at Philly. She was claimed out of her return race by the Serpe barn that is 14% winners first off the claim. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the 8-1 morning line looks generous.

Tizanillusion pressed the early pace and faded in the stretch to finish seventh last out in the Christiecat. The filly crossed the wire in front at this condition two back but was DQ'd for interference in the stretch. Three back over the turf here she was beaten just a nose at this level behind repeat winner Lamontagne, who beat Alw-1 foes in her next outing at Del Mar. She is the logical one to beat while our top pick is likely going to offer more value for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #6 Just Got Out 12-1
R5: #4 Henrik Rules 8-1
R6: 34 Billsperfectstorm 12-1
R7: #7 Battle Tux 8-1
R8: #2 Callista 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 6:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$5000 - NON WINNERS 1
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 8 PIRATE FLAG 4/1
# 4 TINY PRANCER 3/1
# 7 PHOTO CASH 12/1

Hard not to lean toward PIRATE FLAG as the top selection for this one. Surely think these two have a special working relationship. Harmon sending the horse out means a nice chance to get the top prize. TINY PRANCER - Have to favor a harness racer coming out of the Hoosier Park 4 post. The win clip is excellent, way above normal. Has a substantial shot in this one, if she can perform to her back class. PHOTO CASH - This gelding has the ability to take positive advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this competition.