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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #5 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Opening Line Report - Week #5
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor

As the first month of the 2014 college football season closes, the games get a little bigger each week. And Week #5 gets off to an early start in the Pac-10 Conference, with No. 11 UCLA traveling to Tempe to meet 15th-ranked Arizona State. The Bruins are off to a 3-0 SU start, but they’ve failed to cover in all three contests as heavy favorites – as 18-point road chalk at Virginia, 22-point home favorites to Memphis, and laying 8.5 points two weeks ago against Texas, where they held on for a 20-17 victory.

The Sun Devils are also 3-0 SU (1-2 ATS) but haven’t faced a challenge, laying 45.5, 24 and 15.5 points respectively at home to Weber State and at New Mexico and Colorado. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley tweaked his left (non-throwing) elbow against Texas, and coach Jim Mora hasn’t yet disclosed Hundley’s status, so Bookmaker.eu lines manager John Lester said he hasn’t put up a line yet. But he likes ASU.

"The quarterback situation for UCLA is up in the air, which is why this is still off the board,” Lester said. “Arizona State will be playing its backup (Mike Bercovici), who has experience. This feels like a good spot for the Sun Devils.”

•Florida State Seminoles (-23) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack
The top-ranked Seminoles nearly suffered their first loss since 2012 on Saturday night against visiting Clemson. Star-quarterback Jameis Winston sat out with a one-game suspension as his self-induced troubles mounted, and Florida State needed overtime to win 23-17 giving 9.5 points at some shops here on the strip in Vegas, while most others had No-Line available on the contest. The Seminoles are 3-0 straight-up but 0-3 against the spread, while the Wolfpack are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, but this will be N.C. State’s sternest test by far – its first four games were against Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida and last Saturday against Presbyterian.

"Well, we know the Seminoles will have their quarterback back, but Winston could be rusty or too eager to prove something,” Lester told us here at StatSystemsSports.net. “There is also a bit of a letdown factor to consider after the emotional Clemson win. In my opinion, N.C. State is a live dog here.”

•Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-5.5)
Two teams that can ill-afford any more losses clash in an South Eastern Conference contest. Previously unbeaten Missouri, 3-1 straight-up, 2-2 versus the spread suffered a stunning 31-27 home setback to Indiana as a 14-point favorite in Week #4. No. 13 South Carolina (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS), which got clubbed 52-28 by visiting Texas A&M in the season opener, has rebounded to win three straight confrontations, including an impressive 38-35 home win over Georgia as 6.5-point home underdogs. However, the Gamecocks had to work Saturday to beat Vanderbilt 34-24 as a 23-point road chalk.

"You have to worry about the mental state of this Missouri squad after the shocking upset Saturday,” Lester said. “South Carolina got a wake-up call against Vanderbilt, so they should be ready for this prime-time matchup.”

•Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12) Vs. Syracuse Orange
The eighth-ranked Fighting Irish reached the BCS title game two years ago behind quarterback Everett Golson, then Golson was lost to academic suspension all of last year. Now he’s back under center and looking to keep Notre Dame 3-0 straight-up, 2-1 versus the spread unbeaten against the Syracuse Orange who enter this neutral site contest (Metlife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ.) 2-1 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread.

"We’re expecting a lot of action on the under, so we will be careful when making that number,” Lester told us. “The Orange offense looks a bit stagnant right now, and the Irish have had a full week off to prepare for it.”
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NCAAF Line Watch - Week #5
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the 2014-15 college football season right here in our Mid-Week Report, StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. “Until next week, enjoy and as always the very best of luck” -Jude!

Spread To Bet Now

•Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Louisville Cardinals (-20.5)
Louisville was featured in this space last week, and the Cardinals warrant the ink again this week. Louisville waxed Florida International 34-3 last Saturday, so they return home with momentum. Louisville opened as 21-point favorites over Wake Forest, so lay the three touchdowns now before the line goes up. Wake Forest is a team in transition. The Demon Deacons are in their first year under head coach Dave Clawson, and he’s installing his pass-heavy schemes. They’ve been competitive thus far, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule. Louisville has too much offense, and with head coach Bobby Petrino’s knack for running up scores, bettors should play this game now in order to get the best of the number.

Spread To Wait On

•Arkansas Razorbacks (+8.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M opened as 10-point home favorites, and the initial money has come in on Arkansas, driving the line down to the current price of 8.5 and 9 in some spots here in Las Vegas. However, when the recreational bettors get involved later this week, this line is likely to tick upward. Arkansas is remembered for last year’s miserable 3-9 straight-up season, so public bettors are reluctant to back the Razorbacks. That will be true in this game against No. 7 Texas A&M who is known for their high-scoring offense. The Aggies have won their four games by a combined score of 221-47 this season, (along with cashing yet another *4-Star ‘Awesome Angle Of The Week’ selection in Saturday’s Week #4 NCAAF Report) so the betting public will be all over the Aggies as a single digit home favorite. Wait this game out, and take Arkansas closer to kick off.

Total To Watch

•Northwestern Wildcats @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern’s offense has disappointed thus far; the Wildcats have only scored 24, 15, and 24 points in their three games. They’ve played all three of their encounters at home, and the pressure to perform has been too much. In their first road game, we can expect a looser and more aggressive approach. Penn State’s defense has been stout so far this season, but the Nittany Lions have played an awful slate of opposing offenses. Penn State’s offense finally broke out with 48 points in Week #4 versus Massachusetts after facing strong opposing defenses earlier this month. Northwestern’s defense is poor, so expect another good offensive game from Penn State. The seasonal numbers will skew the oddsmakers total on this matchup, so it might be set lower than it should be.
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Mid-Major Report - Week #5
Systems Analyst William Stillman

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week in our NCAA Mid-Week Report, Systems Analyst William Stillman will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

•Team To Watch: Bowling Green Falcons
This Week: -4.5 at Massachusetts

This line is absolutely on the move for Saturday’s Mid-American Conference showdown between Bowling Green and Massachusetts. The Falcons opened at least -10 (-12.5 at some), but the line is down to as low as -4.5. Giving no more than a touchdown, now might be the perfect time to jump all over Bowling Green. Bettors are perhaps scared off by the Falcons after both teams looked similarly poor against the Big Ten last weekend. Bowling Green got blown out 68-17 at Wisconsin and Massachusetts fell 48-7 at Penn State. Bowling Green is also without quarterback Matt Johnson, who is done for the year. However, James Knapke has stepped in and has thrown for 795 yards and four touchdowns in three games. Knapke racked up 395 yards and three scores in a win over Indiana, which upset Missouri last week.

•Team To Beware: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
This Week: +7 at Navy

Don’t be fooled by Western Kentucky’s 19-7 home win over Navy last season. Midshipmen quarterback Keenan Reynolds was knocked out of that game in the second quarter with the visitors ahead 7-3. Reynolds is good to go for Saturday’s rematch in Annapolis. After attempting only 12 passes in the first two games of 2014, the junior was 12 of 22 for 231 yards and a score as Navy took to the air in a 31-24 loss to Rutgers last week. Reynolds also has five rushing touchdowns in three games this year, including four in his last two. Western Kentucky will have its hands full against an offense that ranks 15th nationally in third-down conversions, getting the job done more than 52 percent of the time. The Hilltoppers’ defense lost six starters from last season’s team and the unit is currently 116th in the nation overall (508.7 yards per game) and 114th in points allowed (41.0 per game).

•Total Team: Fresno State Bulldogs
This Week: at New Mexico

Fresno State head coach Tim DeRuyter said people will “probably figure it out” when it comes to who will start at quarterback against New Mexico Friday night. That inevitably means the job is going to Brian Burrell, who threw for a touchdown and rushed for another in a leading role under center for Fresno State during Week #3’s (55-19) loss versus Nebraska (a Huge *7-Star Money-Line Winner for us in our Mid-Week Report). On the other side of the ball, Fresno State safety Derron Smith said this is a game he does not look forward to, going up against New Mexico’s option offense. Smith admitted the defense has not been disciplined this season and it is “definitely going to be a struggle.” The Over is 4-0-1 in the Bulldogs’ last five overall and 3-0-1 in their last four home games. The Over is 6-1 in the Lobos’ last seven at home and 5-1 in their last six Mountain West contests.

Four Live NCAAF Long Shots
There’s blood in the water when it comes to many college football conferences, with perennial favorites falling off the pace and surprise contenders emerging as conference competition heats up. Here are four mid-tier teams off to strong starts, who could stun the NCAAF world – and sportsbooks – if they continue to climb the standings:

•Duke Blue Devils (4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS)
Odds To Win ACC Championship: +1,600

Many forget that Duke was the other participant in last year’s Atlantic Coast Conference Championship game and also hung with Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M in their bowl game. After a 10-4 season, Duke is 4-0 and headed on a similar path this year. The Blue Devils’ schedule hasn't been very tough but they've done what they were supposed to and currently rank 17th in the nation in scoring offense and seventh in scoring defense. Duke also has a very favorable schedule as it doesn’t play Florida State, Clemson or Louisville. Duke could very well win the Coastal this year with FSU not playing like the world beater it was last season.

•Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Odds To Win SEC Championship: +2,000

The Bulldogs finally got over the hump by beating Louisianan State (34-29) in Death Valley last Saturday night as a 7-point dog. This puts them in a great position but they still have an extremely tough schedule including home games against Texas A&M and Auburn coming up over the next three weeks. What might give Mississippi State an edge is its South Eastern Conference East opponents: Kentucky and Vanderbilt. If there was ever a year that the West was wide open, it's this year and this is arguably Dan Mullen's most talented team.

•Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Odds To Win Big Ten Championship: +4,000

The Nittany Lions have recently received eligibility for the postseason and they could sneak up on some with such big odds against them. In their favor, the Big Ten is down overall this season. Not in Penn State's favor is the fact it still has very tough matchups with divisional foes Michigan State and Ohio State. They do get a bye the week before playing the Buckeyes and both that encounter and the confrontation against the Spartans are at home.

•Wyoming Cowboys (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Odds To Win MWC Championship: +3,000

Everybody in the Mountain West Conference already has at least one loss and the door is swinging wide open for anybody. From 2011 to 2013, Wyoming's new head coach had a straight-up record of 43-2 (a 95.5 percent winning proposition) and has won three FCS National Championships. Craig Bohl knows how to win and he's shown that already with the Cowboys by leading them to three close victories that they probably would have lost last season. If you are looking for an underdog in this conference, they could end up being a good value.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #5
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin

•NEW MEXICO ST is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 13.7, OPPONENT 44.6.

•S FLORIDA is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.5, OPPONENT 23.0.

•UAB is 5-19 (-47.9 Units) against the money line after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 21.1, OPPONENT 30.6.

•NOTRE DAME is 23-6 (+16.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 13.5, OPPONENT 8.9.

•COLORADO ST is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was COLORADO ST 14.5, OPPONENT 23.6.

•RON TURNER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was TURNER 10.0, OPPONENT 48.5.

•BRIAN KELLY is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of NOTRE DAME.
The average score was KELLY 21.5, OPPONENT 17.4.

•BRIAN KELLY is 13-1 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of NOTRE DAME.
The average score was KELLY 30.2, OPPONENT 17.5.

•TIM BECKMAN is 1-11 (-11.1 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BECKMAN 12.4, OPPONENT 25.5.

•MIKE MACINTYRE is 14-0 OVER (+14.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was MACINTYRE 14.1, OPPONENT 27.1.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - A home team versus the money line (CLEMSON) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.
(37-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.1%, +38.8 units. Rating = 7*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +123.8
The average score in these games was: Team 37.4, Opponent 16.1 (Average point differential = +21.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0, +11.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3, +14.8 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (65-21, +31.4 units).
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Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
With both the National Football League, and NCAA College Football regular seasons in full swing. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"

Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.

"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
___________________________________________________

Week #5 Quick Hits – Top-25
Systems Analyst James Vogel

#113 WYOMING @ #114 MICHIGAN ST - 12:00 PM
Wyoming has the opportunity to play both ends of the huge early season game between Michigan State and Oregon. The Cowboys covered in a lopsided loss with Oregon in Week #3 and this is a team with three wins already this season after last week’s game with Florida Atlantic. Craig Bohl is a coach that deserves some respect from his great success at North Dakota State and the Cowboys have looked very competent defensively this season. Michigan State may still be the team to beat in the Big Ten but it may be tough to re-gain the focus of this team, clearly coasting last week versus Eastern Michigan. A big conference opener with Nebraska is up next in the schedule so this is a clear game where the Spartans may be a bit flat, even for homecoming. Wyoming is known for a tough home field but the ATS success in recent years has come on the road.

•RECENT TRENDS
--WYO is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games.
--WYO is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
--Under is 5-1 in WYO last 6 non-conference games.

--MSU is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
--MSU is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
--Over is 4-0 in MSU last 4 non-conference games.

#119 BAYLOR @ #120 IOWA ST - 8:20 PM
The Bears have crushed the competition this season but the schedule has been one of the weakest in the nation through three games. Baylor won 71-7 last season in this matchup and next week’s date with Texas certainly looms as a bigger confrontation for the team. Baylor might look like the same team as last year with the early results but very few starters returned for the Bears and it is not clear if Baylor deserves the same valuation as last season’s great team yet. Iowa State in consistently stuck at the bottom of the Big XII but they tend to pull off a few upsets each season and the Cyclones own a strong heavy home underdog track record. Iowa State gave Kansas State fits in a narrow defeat in week #2 and Iowa State won at Iowa in the last game before a bye week last week. Iowa State covered in three of four Big XII home games last season and this spread could be too steep.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 7-4 against the spread versus IOWA ST since 1992.
--IOWA ST is 6-5 straight up against BAYLOR since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--IOWA ST is 7-4 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
--Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Iowa State.

•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--BAY is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
--Over is 16-5 in BAY last 21 games in September.

--ISU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--ISU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
--Over is 7-2 in ISU last 9 games following a bye week.

#121 S FLORIDA @ #122 WISCONSIN - 12:00 PM
The Badgers got back on track with a win over Bowling Green last week but that was a tough spot for the Falcons coming off a big upset win. South Florida continues to struggle on offense and after last Friday’s big primetime victory at home this will not be an easy road trip as this is actually the first road game of the season for the Bulls. South Florida was surprisingly 4-1 ATS as a road underdog last season as the defense often kept the team in games even with an offense that averaged less than 14 points per contest. Needless to say the Big Ten opener next week is more alluring for the Badgers as this may be a matchup that is tough to pull away in with a great contrast in style and pace compared with last week’s foe for the Badgers.

•RECENT TRENDS
--USF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--USF is 6-21-1 ATS L28 non-conference games.
--Under is 7-1 in USF last 8 road games.

--WIS is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.
--WIS is5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in WIS last 5 games overall.

#149 UTEP @ #150 KANSAS ST - 12:00 PM
The Wildcats stopped the Auburn zone-read rushing attack as well as any team has but it was not enough in a huge home game in Manhattan. Kansas State has a tough task getting up for this week’s game against an improved UTEP squad. The Miners have wins over New Mexico and New Mexico State this season and they took Texas Tech down to the wire in week #2. UTEP has had two weeks to prepare for this big road test and the Miners may not be as overmatched as it seems. Kansas State has a Big XII game next week and this is a letdown spot on the schedule. Bill Snyder has a great record at home but he has several upset losses on his resume.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 0-0 against the spread versus UTEP since 1992.
--KANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992.
--UTEP is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS ST since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--UTEP is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--UTEP is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus Big 12.
--Under is 4-1-1 in UTEP last 6 road games.

--KSU is 27-13-1 ATS in their L41 games overall.
--KSU is 14-3 ATS L17 games following a SU loss.
--Under is 5-2 in KSU last 7 non-conference games.

#151 LOUISIANA TECH @ #152 AUBURN - 4:00 PM
Auburn has one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season but the Tigers survived their first big test last week, sneaking out of Kansas State with a narrow win. Next up on the schedule is LSU as the gauntlet continues but this homecoming date with Louisiana Tech should not be overlooked. Auburn narrowly missed covering last week to end a 13-game winning streak and this will be an inflated line. Louisiana Tech has made some noise in the second season under Skip Holtz with dominant wins over Louisiana and North Texas as underdogs. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for the Bulldogs but the team should be motivated after a stunning home loss to FCS Northwestern State last week. Facing Auburn is a big challenge but also a big draw for the Louisiana Tech kids in SEC country. Auburn’s ATS win streak finally ended but they’ll still be overvalued.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--AUBURN is 3-2 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH since 1992.
--AUBURN is 6-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--AUBURN is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against LOUISIANA TECH since 1992.
--0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Auburn.

•RECENT TRENDS
--LT is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus SEC.
--LT is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
--Under is 5-2 in LT last 7 games in September.

--AUB is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--AUB is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
--Under is 7-3 in AUB last 10 games in September.

#161 MISSOURI @ #162 S CAROLINA - 7:00 PM
The only regular season loss for Missouri last season came at home against South Carolina as this will be a big game for the Tigers. That was a game that Maty Mauk played but Missouri lost in double-overtime. The Gamecocks are facing a fifth straight encounter of considerable significance with this being the fourth South Eastern Conference game for South Carolina already this season. South Carolina has a huge win over Georgia under its belt but it was a game the Gamecocks nearly gave away as this team has not been as impressive as many expected it to be, particularly on defense. South Carolina is coming off a very poor performance surviving against Vanderbilt but Missouri enters this game off a stunning loss to Indiana. The Tigers really struggled against the run last week but last season Missouri was very tough against the South Carolina running game holding the Gamecocks to just 75 yards on the ground on 35 attempts. Look for a bounce back performance from a still very talented Missouri team.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S CAROLINA is 2-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI since 1992.
--S CAROLINA is 2-1 straight up against MISSOURI since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--S CAROLINA is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against MISSOURI since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MIZZ is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--MIZZ is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games in September.
--Under is 7-2 in MIZZ last 9 games in September.

--SOCAR is 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--SOCAR is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
--Over is 11-4 in SOCAR last 15 conference games.

#165 NOTRE DAME vs. #166 SYRACUSE - 8:00 PM
(At MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey) This is a second straight neutral site confrontation for Notre Dame and while playing in another National Football League stadium will be a draw the big Stanford game is up next. Notre Dame has been impressive in a 3-0 start but this is a Syracuse team that may be undervalued. The Orange struggled with Villanova in the 2014 debut but has looked sharp since, dominating the yardage against Maryland last Saturday but failing with turnovers and special teams blunders. These teams met in 2005 and this is certainly a bigger game on the schedule for the underdog. Syracuse put up 370 yards on the ground during Week #4.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 3-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--SYRACUSE is 2-1 straight up against NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SYRACUSE is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against NOTRE DAME since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ND is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
--ND is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
--Under is 15-3 in ND last 18 versus ACC.

--SYR is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
--SYR is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
--Over is 7-2-1 in SYR last 10 games in September.

#167 ARKANSAS vs. #168 TEXAS A&M - 3:30 PM
(At AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas) Texas A&M was universally projected to fall in the standings this season but the opening victory over South Carolina dramatically changed that perception. One road win may not deserve to carry that much weight and the Aggies have been a bit shaky defensively since that opening win. Last season these teams played a tight game with Texas A&M winning by 12 at Arkansas in a game that was rather even statistically despite the contrasting 2013 results for these programs. Arkansas appears to be greatly improved, playing close with Auburn and beating Texas Tech and Northern Illinois in quality nonconference tests. The Razorbacks should be an underdog with a rushing edge in this matchup and the neutral site stage could provide more pressure for the favorite. Arkansas has not played on a big stage in a while with the last bowl appearance in 2011 so this will be a fired up team.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARKANSAS is 4-1 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--ARKANSAS is 3-2 straight up against TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--ARKANSAS is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS A&M since 1992.
--5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ARK is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
--ARK is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Over is 23-6 in ARK last 29 games in September.

--TAM is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
--TAM is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
--Over is 8-2 in TAM last 10 conference games.
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#169 OREGON ST @ #170 USC - 10:30 PM
The Trojans have had two weeks to shake off the impact of the upset loss to Boston College and they host Oregon State after winning in Corvallis last season. The Pac-12 South could still be wide open as USC will get to face UCLA in the conference finale for the team and the Trojans won’t play Oregon. The Beavers are always a dangerous underdog with a great track record under Mike Riley, including going 7-0 ATS as a road underdog the past two seasons. Oregon State has been shaky in a 3-0 start with marginal statistics against lesser competition. Turnovers doomed the Beavers last season in this game in the Pac-12 opener but the USC defense has been very good against the pass and OSU doesn’t run much.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 10-8 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1992.
--USC is 14-4 straight up against OREGON ST since 1992.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--USC is 10-8 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1992.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Beavers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ORST is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--ORST is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a bye week.
--Under is 5-1 in ORST last 6 games following a bye week.

--USC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--USC is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
--Under is 6-2 in USC last 8 games in September.

#173 STANFORD @ #174 WASHINGTON - 4:15 PM
The Huskies lost by three at Stanford last season in a game where they posted 489 yards, out-gaining the Cardinal by more than 200 yards in the loss. Washington is 4-0 though with some close calls and this will be the big game of the first half of the season on the schedule. Stanford has had two weeks to prepare for this confrontation but the Notre Dame game is up next. Washington has given Stanford trouble the past two seasons but this is a new coaching staff in Seattle. This is the first road game of the season for Stanford, a team with four road losses the last two seasons under David Shaw, with three of those defeats coming as a road favorite. Stanford missed a lot of opportunities versus USC.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 9-8 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 10-8 straight up against STANFORD since 1992.
--9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--STANFORD is 11-6 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
--Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington.

•RECENT TRENDS
--STAN is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.
--STAN is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in September.
--Under is 7-1 in STAN last 8 conference games.

--WASH is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games.
--WASH is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--Under is 8-2 in WASH last 10 games in September.

#177 TENNESSEE @ #178 GEORGIA - 12:00 PM
Once again a hyped Georgia team could not avoid an early season loss and while the season goals are not completely dashed it may be tough for this team to play with the same edge. Georgia has been vulnerable defensively this season and the great running game has often struggled early in games before breaking through in the second halves. Last season Georgia won just 34-31 as a heavy favorite at Tennessee as the Volunteers nearly had a signature upset. Tennessee was impressive in quality wins over Utah State and Arkansas State and the Volunteers played Oklahoma a lot closer than the scoreboard indicated with a few key turnovers dooming their chances. Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for this encounter after near-misses in this series each of the last three years and a Georgia team coming off a blowout win may be vulnerable to another upset.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TENNESSEE is 13-8 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 12-10 straight up against GEORGIA since 1992.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GEORGIA is 10-10 versus the first half line when playing against TENNESSEE since 1992.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Volunteers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Georgia.

•RECENT TRENDS
--TENN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--TENN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 20-8-1 in TENN last 29 games in September.

--UGA is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
--UGA is 1-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
--Over is 8-2 in UGA last 10 conference games.

#181 FLORIDA ST @ #182 NC STATE - 3:30 PM
The Seminoles survived last Saturday without Jameis Winston and two of the biggest hurdles on the 2014 schedule have been cleared. NC State has oddly had great ATS success in this series including beating the then #3-ranked Seminoles in 2012. Florida State has lost straight-up in three of the last four trips to Raleigh while failing to cover in five of the last six visits. NC State is a suspect 4-0 team as they have played a terrible South Florida team, a FCS foe and two first-year FBS opponents. The Wolfpack deserve to be doubted but this will be a huge game for the team and a potential flat spot for a Seminoles team that has been overvalued with a 0-3 ATS start. Given all the distractions and negative headlines for Florida State the past two weeks and the relief of still winning last week this may be a challenging spot.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NC STATE is 13-8 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--FLORIDA ST is 15-7 straight up against NC STATE since 1992.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NC STATE is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA ST since 1992.
--10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
--Seminoles are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in North Carolina State.
--Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in North Carolina State.

•RECENT TRENDS
--FSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
--FSU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
--Over is 7-3 in FSU last 10 games in September.

--NCST is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--NCST is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
--Under is 12-4 in NCST last 16 home games.

#185 CINCINNATI @ #186 OHIO ST - 6:00 PM
The Bearcats have not had a shot at Ohio State since 2006 and this will unquestionably be a big game on the schedule for Cincinnati. Ohio State has its Big Ten opener up next Saturday but this will be the first road game of the season for Cincinnati. Both teams have had mixed results this season with Ohio State struggling in its two contests against legitimate competition, squeaking by Navy and losing to Virginia Tech. Cincinnati was the last FBS team to open the season and the Bearcats are 2-0 although facing a pair of Mid-American Conference teams and not exactly dominating the games either with even yardage last week against a Miami team that has now lost 20 games in a row. Cincinnati has a handful of wins versus major foes in recent seasons but the Bearcats have never won in Columbus.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 2-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1992.
--OHIO ST is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--CINCINNATI is 4-0 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1992.
--3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.
--CIN is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
--Over is 13-6 in CIN last 19 games following a bye week.

--OSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
--OSU is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Over is 5-1 in OSU last 6 non-conference games.

#189 MEMPHIS @ #190 OLE MISS - 7:30 PM
Ole Miss is off to a great start and while Memphis has proven to be a quality team this season the Rebels can’t help but look ahead to facing Alabama at home next Saturday in a season-defining challenge. Memphis has not played Mississippi since 2009 and this is a big opportunity for the Tigers who look like a serious American Athletic Conference contender despite coming off a 3-9 season last year. Next week’s contest at Cincinnati may be a bigger game in the big picture but the opportunity to take on a nearby South Eastern Conference school is huge for the Memphis players and coaches. Memphis played right with UCLA on the road in the second week of the season and this remains a play-on team. Mississippi has been less dominant that the scoreboard appears.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OLE MISS is 7-6 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1992.
--OLE MISS is 10-4 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--OLE MISS is 6-6 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Mississippi.

•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus SEC.
--MEM is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
--Over is 6-0 in MEM last 6 versus SEC.

--MISS is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
--MISS is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
--Under is 8-3 in MISS last 11 games in September.

#199 NEW MEXICO ST @ #200 LSU - 7:30 PM
Les Miles nearly pulled out another miracle comeback during Week #4, but Louisianan State suffered its first loss against Mississippi State in Baton Rouge. LSU was dominated in the game on the ground with a rare 302-89 rushing edge for an opponent of the Tigers. The Aggies were in position to beat New Mexico at home last Saturday but surrendered a late score with a critical late penalty being costly. New Mexico State allowed 432 yards on the ground last week so this should be a matchup for LSU to work its ground game with success. The Tigers has a big game with Auburn up next however.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LSU is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST since 1992.
--LSU is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST since 1992.
--LSU is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against NEW MEXICO ST since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--NMSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus SEC.
--NMSU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--Over is 14-3 in NMSU last 17 non-conference games.

--LSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.
--LSU is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 5-2 in LSU last 7 games in September.

#201 ILLINOIS @ #202 NEBRASKA - 9:00 PM
Given the struggles of the Big Ten out of conference this season, last Saturday's victory for Nebraska was huge, beating Miami in a marquee non-conference clash. The Illinois defense could have problems in this matchup as the Illini barely got by Texas State during Week #4, allowing nearly 500 yards against a team not known for offense. Illinois lost by 20 in Lincoln in 2013 with 521 yards allowed and a second straight trip to Nebraska could be challenging. Illinois is 3-1 but they have narrowly snuck by lesser teams in all three wins and another difficult Big Ten campaign seems likely. There is a letdown potential for Nebraska given the hype for last week’s matchup and knowing that Michigan State is next on the schedule. Nebraska has been shaky on defense at times this season so Illinois may be able to score a few times and oddly Nebraska was only favored by 7½ last season.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEBRASKA is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1992.
--NEBRASKA is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NEBRASKA is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against ILLINOIS since 1992.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•RECENT TRENDS
--ILL is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
--ILL is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
--Over is 7-2 in ILL last 9 games in September.

--NEB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--NEB is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games off an ATS win.
--Over is 5-2 in NEB last 7 games in September.
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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #4 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________

Opening Line Report - Week #4
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor

As we hit Week #4 of the National Football League season, the better matchups are in the NFC, starting with the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles traveling to face the suddenly underwhelming San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been the comeback kings, rallying from behind in all three victories, including Sunday’s 37-34 shootout home win over Washington. Philadelphia, which trailed 17-7 in the second quarter, failed to cash as 4-point chalk.

The Niners, meanwhile, have dumped two in a row after a strong win at Dallas to open the season, and Sunday’s loss was particularly stunning. San Francisco led 14-6 at halftime at Arizona, but didn’t score the rest of the way in a 23-14 loss as a 3-point favorite – with backup QB Drew Stanton pacing the Cardinals to the upset. Despite that, Bookmaker.eu lines manager John Lester pegged the 49ers 4-point favorites “The Eagles can’t afford another slow start here,” Lester tells StatSystems Sports.

“The Niners are desperate for a win at this point, especially in their new stadium. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a lot Philly money from their backers and the public.”

•New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
The Saints finally got off the deck after their 0-2 straight-up and against the spread start, dropping Minnesota 20-9 for the win and cover as 10-point favorites Sunday. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) have won and covered two in a row, including posting the largest regulation comeback in team history Sunday, coming back from a 21-0 second-quarter hole to win 34-31 as 1.5-point favorites at St. Louis. Lester has more interest in the total than the spread. “These are two below-average defenses, so we shaded toward the Over and sent out 53,” he said.

“We know that the Saints are a different team on the road, but the bettors believe in them, not the Cowboys. We opened with Dallas as a 2.5-point dog and quickly saw action on New Orleans.”

•New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots haven’t exactly been inspiring early on this season, and Sunday was no different. Laying 14 points against visiting Oakland, New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) scored an ugly 16-9 victory. The Chiefs (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS), another playoff team from last season off to a sluggish start, got their first win Sunday, ripping host Miami 34-15 as 5.5-point underdogs. Lester thinks New England will be better prepared at K.C., rising to the level of the opponent. “We’ve seen the Pats sleepwalk through games where they are double-digit chalk, and I fully expect them to be more focused this week heading to Arrowhead, which is still a difficult place to play,”

Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, said. “We released Chiefs +3.5, and the early money came in on New England.”

•Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (N/A)
The Packers (1-2 SU) have yet to cover this season (0-2-1 ATS) and the push came in their lone victory, a Week #2 win at the New York Jets that required coming back from a 21-3 deficit. Green Bay managed just one score in a 19-7 loss at Detroit Sunday. The Bears, meanwhile, stumbled out of the gate by losing to Buffalo at home, but made a big comeback of their own in Week #2, rallying past host San Francisco for a 28-20 win as 7-point pups. It should be a typical NFC North slugfest, but with Chicago visiting the Jets in the Monday night game to wrap up Week #3, Lester hasn’t sent out a line yet.

“If there aren’t any major injuries for the Bears against New York, we will likely make them a small favorite with the home-field edge,” Lester told us. Early lines for this game popping up, have this spread around a pick’em.
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NFL line watch - Week #4
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo

Each and every week during the 2014-15 pro football season, right here in our Mid-Week Report, StatSystemsSports.net Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo looks at the National Football League odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out. “Until next week, enjoy and as always the very best of luck” -Jude!

Spread To Bet Now

•New England Patriots (-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Angst is in no short supply in New England, where the offense looks worse than it has in more than a decade and there are rumors that at 37 years old, Tom Brady can no longer cover up whatever might be ailing the rest of the skill-position players. When word starts to creep across the country about New England’s issues, the line could melt down to a field goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a big victory over the Dolphins (who manhandled the Patriots only a few weeks ago) and look like they at last have a little life. Alex Smith may not be the new Bart Starr, but he’s still better than any QB the Patriots have faced this season. Kansas City backers should grab the extra point ASAP before this becomes a field-goal line.

Spread To Wait On

•Detroit Lions @ New York Jets (Pick)
Early money is heavily on the Lions as bettors were no doubt influenced by Detroit’s victory over Green Bay Sunday. But hang on a bit. The Lions are not the same team on grass as they are on turf, and while the Jets aren’t football Einsteins, Rex Ryan has some talent to work with. If serious public money continues to flow in on the Lions, in a few days the Jets might even be getting a point or a point and a half before this one kicks off. If so, it would be an ideal situation for bettors who recognize that the Lions are two different teams – depending on where the game is played.

Total To Watch

•Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (45.5)
Yes, games against the Jaguars still count. The Colts put 44 on the board down in Jacksonville Sunday and should be pedal to the metal again this week against the 1-2 Titans. Tennessee has given up 59 points in its last two games after taking advantage of a Chiefs team that couldn’t get out of its own way on opening day. With the Titans no more than an average defensive team and the Colts lighting it up and playing at home, the 45.5 frankly looks like a gift for Over players.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #4
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner

•SAN DIEGO is 23-3 ATS (+19.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.5, OPPONENT 17.4.

•DALLAS is 40-12 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 27.1, OPPONENT 25.5.

•PITTSBURGH is 33-3 (+30.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.7, OPPONENT 15.5.

•ATLANTA is 13-33 (-23.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 8.7, OPPONENT 14.1.

•NEW ORLEANS is 16-2 OVER (+13.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 15.8, OPPONENT 15.1.

•MIKE MCCARTHY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was MCCARTHY 26.2, OPPONENT 17.1.

•REX RYAN is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) versus excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game as the coach of NY JETS.
The average score was RYAN 21.9, OPPONENT 23.7.

•BILL BELICHICK is 30-3 (+26.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was BELICHICK 29.7, OPPONENT 18.5.

•BILL BELICHICK is 19-5 (+13.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was BELICHICK 17.4, OPPONENT 7.6.

•SEAN PAYTON is 14-2 OVER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was PAYTON 17.6, OPPONENT 13.2.

Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play Against - Underdogs of +140 to +325 versus the money line (TAMPA BAY) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.
(44-1 over the last 10 seasons.) (97.8%, +42.3 units. Rating = 7*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -170
The average score in these games was: Team 28.5, Opponent 13 (Average point differential = +15.5)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0, +10 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +13.3 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (133-36, +44.5 units).
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Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
With both the National Football League, and NCAA College Football regular seasons in full swing. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"

Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.

"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
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NFL Week #4 Matchup
Systems Analyst Todd Smith

Thursday, 9/25/2014

#101 NY GIANTS @ #102 WASHINGTON - 8:25 PM
The Giants notched their first win of the season on Sunday, picking off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times on their way to a 30-17 home victory. The Redskins, meanwhile, lost in Philadelphia in a 37-34 shootout despite holding Philadelphia star running back LeSean McCoy to just 22 yards on 19 carries. The Redskins will again be led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, who threw for 427 yards against the Eagles. Since the start of last season, Washington is 4-1 ATS when Cousins has taken the majority of the snaps versus 3-10 ATS when Robert Griffin III has been
at quarterback.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY GIANTS is 26-18 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1992.
--NY GIANTS is 28-15 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--25 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NY GIANTS is 22-21 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1992.
--25 of 43 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

•KEY STATS
--NY GIANTS are 62-33 UNDER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 34-16 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 39-15 UNDER away after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

--WASHINGTON is 5-17 ATS at home when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 12-28 ATS at home in the first month of the season since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 37-59 ATS as a home favorite since 1992.

Sunday, 9/28/2014

#251 MIAMI vs. #252 OAKLAND - 1:00 PM
Two struggling teams meet in London’s Wembley Stadium. The Dolphins hosted the Chiefs last week and lost 34-15 due in large part to their inability to pick up yards in key situations - Miami was just 4-of-15 on third down and 0-of-2 on fourth down in the game. Expect them to lean heavily on running back Lamar Miller against an Oakland defense that’s given up more rushing yards than any NFL team except for the Jaguars. The Raiders have the last-ranked offense in the NFL, as they’re averaging a paltry 254.3 yards per game while scoring only 37 points over three games this season.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MIAMI is 10-5 against the spread versus OAKLAND since 1992.
--MIAMI is 12-3 straight up against OAKLAND since 1992.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--MIAMI is 9-6 versus the first half line when playing against OAKLAND since 1992.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 36-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
--MIAMI is 7-0 UNDER versus defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game over L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 7-0 UNDER against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

--OAKLAND is 16-36 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 19-40 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 25-9 ATS away vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.

#253 GREEN BAY @ #254 CHICAGO - 1:00 PM
The Packers travel to Chicago after gaining just 223 total yards in a 19-7 loss in Detroit. Expect Green Bay to be able to have more success, particularly through the air, against a Bears defense that’s been decimated by injuries in the secondary - at one point in their 27-19 Monday night win over the Jets, the Bears were lining up with rookies Brock Vereen and newly signed Ahmad Dixon as their two safeties. The Packers have enjoyed success when playing in Chicago in recent years, going 4-0 (SU and ATS) in their past four trips to Soldier Field. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews (groin) is questionable for this game.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GREEN BAY is 28-16 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 32-13 straight up against CHICAGO since 1992.
--23 of 45 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--GREEN BAY is 26-19 versus the first half line when playing against CHICAGO since 1992.
--25 of 45 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
--Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
--Packers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Chicago.

•KEY STATS
--GREEN BAY is 29-12 OVER after being outgained by opp by 100+ total yards last game since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 211-168 OVER in all lined games since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS in games played on a grass field since 1992.

--CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the L2 seasons.
--CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS versus division opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the L3 seasons.

#255 BUFFALO @ #256 HOUSTON - 1:00 PM
Two teams coming off of their first losses of the young season meet in Houston. While the Bills suffered a 22-10 home loss to the Chargers, Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw his first three interceptions of 2014 in a 30-17 loss to the Giants. Expect Buffalo to try to establish its running game against a Houston defense that allowed 193 rushing yards to the Giants. While the Bills are 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home since the start of the 2012 season, the Texans are 0-8 ATS since the start of last season after playing their last game on the road. Houston RB Arian Foster (hamstring) is questionable for this one.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 3-3 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--BUFFALO is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--BUFFALO is 11-23 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home over the L3 seasons.
--BUFFALO is 15-39 ATS away after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

--HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS off a road loss over the L2 seasons.
--HOUSTON is 9-1 OVER at home versus defenses allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.

#257 TENNESSEE @ #258 INDIANAPOLIS - 1:00 PM
Tennessee enters this one off a 33-7 loss in Cincinnati on Sunday, as quarterback Jake Locker threw two interceptions in his second straight underwhelming performance. The Colts, meanwhile, won 44-17 in Jacksonville behind 370 yards and four touchdown passes from quarterback Andrew Luck. Expect the Indianapolis defense to try to put pressure on Locker in order to prevent him from getting comfortable like he did against Kansas City in Week #1. The Colts have won five straight (SU and ATS) versus the Titans. Tennessee QB Jake Locker (wrist) and Indianapolis WR T.Y. Hilton (ankle) are both questionable.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANAPOLIS is 14-12 against the spread versus TENNESSEE since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 straight up against TENNESSEE since 1992.
--18 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 14-10 versus the first half line when playing against TENNESSEE since 1992.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings.
--Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Indianapolis.
--Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.

•KEY STATS
--TENNESSEE is 11-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER after scoring 7 points or less in first half in 2 straight games over L3 seasons.
--TENNESSEE is 12-2 OVER vs. teams with 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD’s per game since 1992.

--INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS in a home game where total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over L3 seasons.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS in a home game where total is between 45.5 and 49 points over L3 seasons.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 12-2 ATS off a road blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992.

#259 CAROLINA @ #260 BALTIMORE - 1:00 PM
The Panthers lost 37-19 at home to the Steelers on Sunday night, setting a franchise low in rushing attempts with 10. Carolina’s defense allowed Pittsburgh to rush for 264 yards, which was the third-highest total in Panther history. They’ll go up against a Baltimore running game that has rushed for the eighth-most yards in the NFL through three games, thanks in part to rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro picking up 91 yards on 18 carries in Sunday’s 23-21 win in Cleveland. Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams will likely play, while RB Jonathan Stewart (knee) and RB Mike Tolbert (leg) will not.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--BALTIMORE is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against CAROLINA since 1992.
--4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the L3 seasons.
--CAROLINA is 40-24 UNDER in September games since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

--BALTIMORE is 18-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 41-25 ATS at home off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
--John Harbaugh is 60-47 ATS in all lined games as coach of BALTIMORE.
_______________________________________________________________

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#261 DETROIT @ #262 NY JETS - 1:00 PM
The Lions head to New York to take on the Jets after defeating the Packers 19-7 in Detroit last week. The Lions defense was stifling, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 162 yards and one touchdown. They also limited the Packers to just 76 rushing yards. That does not bode well for the Jets, a team that relies heavily on the run. Matthew Stafford threw for 246 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions against Green Bay, but a matchup with a miserable Jets’ secondary is just what the doctor ordered for the Lions’ QB. That secondary could also be without Dee Milliner (quad), who is questionable for the Jets.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus DETROIT since 1992.
--NY JETS is 3-3 straight up against DETROIT since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NY JETS is 4-1 versus the first half line when playing against DETROIT since 1992.
--5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

•KEY STATS
--DETROIT is 37-56 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
--DETROIT is 54-31 OVER in non-conference games since 1992.
--DETROIT is 6-17 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

--NY JETS are 0-6 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, 24+ yards per return over the L3 seasons.
--NY JETS are 26-12 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.
--Rex Ryan is 7-0 OVER vs. teams who give up 17 or less points/game as coach of NY JETS.

#263 TAMPA BAY @ #264 PITTSBURGH - 1:00 PM
The Buccaneers were thoroughly embarrassed in a 56-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday night. Quarterback Josh McCown suffered a thumb injury that will keep him sidelined for the next few weeks; he’ll be replaced by Mike Glennon, who inherits an offense that is averaging only 163.3 passing yards per game, the NFL’s worst mark through three weeks. The Steelers won 37-19 in Carolina Sunday night behind 454 yards of total offense. They’ll now face a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 488 total yards to the Falcons. Buccaneers RB Doug Martin (knee) hasn’t played since Week #1 and is questionable for this one.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--PITTSBURGH is 4-1 versus the first half line when playing against TAMPA BAY since 1992.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS in the first half of the season over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA BAY is 56-30 UNDER in the first month of the season since 1992.
--TAMPA BAY is 201-159 UNDER in all lined games since 1992.

--PITTSBURGH is 46-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 89-58 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 24-11 ATS at home after playing a game where 50+ total points were scored since 1992.

#265 JACKSONVILLE @ #266 SAN DIEGO - 4:05 PM
The Jaguars were embarrassed at home by the Colts on Sunday to fall to 0-3 both straight-up & versus the spread on the young season. It’s the fourth straight season that Jacksonville has gotten off to a terrible start: The Jaguars went 1-4 SU & ATS over their first five games of 2011, 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS to begin 2012, and 0-5 both SU & ATS to start 2013. Quarterback Chad Henne was benched in the loss to Indianapolis, so rookie Blake Bortles takes over as Jacksonville’s starter. The Chargers are coming off of a 22-10 win in Buffalo, but they’ll be without either of their top two running backs, Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO is 4-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 4-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE since 1992.
--5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--SAN DIEGO is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against JACKSONVILLE since 1992.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS in September games over the L2 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 OVER away after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points over the L3 seasons.

--SAN DIEGO is 13-1 ATS at home against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 ATS in September games over the L3 seasons.

#267 PHILADELPHIA @ #268 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:25 PM
Despite the fact that the Eagles have yet to put together a complete game of solid football, Philadelphia finds itself at 3-0 straight-up after a 37-34 victory over the Redskins. The 49ers, meanwhile, fell to 1-2 after a 23-14 loss to a Carson Palmer-less Cardinals team. While the Eagles will likely try to speed up the tempo of this game, expect the 49ers to attempt to control the clock. The last time these teams met was in Week #4 of the 2011 season, a game that San Francisco won, 24-23, despite being a 10-point road underdog. Eagles LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) and 49ers TE Vernon Davis (ankle) are both questionable for this one.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-5 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 8-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--PHILADELPHIA is 9-5 versus the first half line when playing against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--11 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
--Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco.

•KEY STATS
--PHILADELPHIA is 31-12 UNDER after a playing a game where 60+ total points were scored since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 157-123 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 64-43 ATS away in games played on a grass field since 1992.

--SAN FRANCISCO is 18-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992.
--Jim Harbaugh is 36-21 ATS in all lined games as coach of SAN FRANCISCO.
--SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24+ points/game over L2 seasons.

#269 ATLANTA @ #270 MINNESOTA - 4:25 PM
The Falcons dominated both sides of the ball in a 56-14 demolition of the Buccaneers on Thursday night. They’ll now face a Vikings team that lost 20-9 in New Orleans on Sunday and hasn’t scored a touchdown since less than five minutes into the game against the Patriots two weeks ago. Minnesota will go with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in place of the injured Matt Cassel, so expect Atlanta to try to apply as much pressure as possible. Wide receiver Roddy White (hamstring) is questionable for Atlanta, while Kyle Rudolph (groin) is out for Minnesota.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 5-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 5-4 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1992.
--6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--MINNESOTA is 4-4 versus the first half line when playing against ATLANTA since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 12-2 UNDER after gaining 400+ total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 18-38 ATS after gaining 6.5+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 6-0 OVER as a favorite over the L2 seasons.

--MINNESOTA is 19-5 OVER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 36-17 OVER after being outgained by opp by 100+ total yards last game since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.

#271 NEW ORLEANS @ #272 DALLAS - 8:30 PM
The Saints are back on the road one week after a 20-9 win in their home opener against the Vikings. They now face a Dallas defense that quarterback Drew Brees torched to the tune of 392 passing yards in a 49-17 blowout last November 10. That game was in New Orleans, however, where the Saints are 8-1 ATS since the start of last season - that stands in stark contrast to the 3-10 ATS mark they’ve posted over their past 13 regular season road games. Dallas, however, is just 2-10 ATS at home under current head coach Jason Garrett when facing defenses that allow a completion percentage of at least 61 percent.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 straight up against DALLAS since 1992.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1992.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
--Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the L2 seasons.
--NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 OVER as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.

--DALLAS is 17-3 OVER at home vs. teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
--DALLAS is 76-52 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
--DALLAS is 16-6 OVER at home vs. teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.

Monday, 9/29/2014

#273 NEW ENGLAND @ #274 KANSAS CITY - 8:35 PM
The Patriots have won with defense the past couple of weeks, keeping opponents out of the end zone since less than five minutes into the first quarter of their game against the Vikings two weeks ago. Kansas City was led in its 34-15 win in Miami by RB Knile Davis, who carried 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in place of injured RB Jamaal Charles (ankle). The Chiefs return home for the first time since they were embarrassed by the Titans, 26-10, in the season opener. Charles and Kansas City safety Eric Berry (ankle) both enter the week as questionable for this one.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ENGLAND is 7-3 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 6-4 straight up against KANSAS CITY since 1992.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--KANSAS CITY is 5-5 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ENGLAND since 1992.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

•KEY STATS
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS away after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 26-10 ATS away after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.

--KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS at home against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 27-13 UNDER at home in the first month of the season since 1992.
--Andy Reid 19-7 OVER in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
________________________________________________________________

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 19:45

Lazio

v

Udinese

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		4/5	5/2	7/2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LAZIO	RECENT FORM
ALHWHWALHWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 1 3 - 0 2 - 2 3 - 2	ADHDHWHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: There has not been a 0-0 between the teams since November 1992

EXPERT VERDICT: Lazio were desperately unlucky to lose at Genoa last time out and they are a side who should be pushing for Europe this season after making a number of excellent signings. Udinese can also improve on last term’s 13th spot but most of their best work tends to be done at home.

RECOMMENDATION: Lazio
1

 

[superbeets]

French Ligue 1 TODAY 20:00

St-Etienne

v

Bordeaux

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		21/20	23/10	13/5	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ST-ETIENNE	RECENT FORM
HDHW*ALHWADAW​ Most recent​	2 - 1 0 - 0 2 - 3 3 - 1	AWHWAWHDALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: St Etienne have kept four clean sheets in six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Bordeaux’s flying start has mainly been due to the fixture list - they have already played the teams who were in the bottom five before this midweek action - and it would be a surprise if the pace could be maintained. This game at St Etienne is Bordeaux’s toughest examination and they may fail the test.

RECOMMENDATION: St Etienne
1

 

[superbeets]

Spanish Primera Liga TODAY 21:00

Valencia

v

Cordoba

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		1/3	4	15/2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VALENCIA	RECENT FORM
ALHWADHWHWAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HDADALHDADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Valencia have scored ten goals in four La Liga matches this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Valencia have been rampant in recent weeks, scoring three goals in each of the victories over Malaga, Espanyol and Getafe and Cordoba may be in for similar treatment. Rodrigo is ruled out but the attacking talents of Paco Alcacer, Andre Gomes and Pablo Piatti can compensate for that suspension.

RECOMMENDATION: Valencia-Valencia double result
1


REFEREE: STADIUM: Mestalla, Valencia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Quarterly Report
By Brian Edwards

As we move into Week 5, it's time to take inventory of what's transpired during the 2014 college football season so far.

Let's examine a few of the top contenders (in no particular order) to get started.

**Contenders**

1. Alabama -- Most pundits, including this one, felt like Florida State transfer Jacob Coker would win the starting quarterback job. However, Blake Sims has clearly become the man after leading 'Bama to four consecutive wins, including a 42-21 thrashing of Florida this past weekend. Sims threw for 446 yards and he's feeding the nation's leading receiver (Amari Cooper) like the 'hoss' (Southern term) that he is. As we suggested all summer, Alabama's path to the College Football Playoff is easier -- scheduling-wise -- than any other SEC squad's.

2. Florida State -- The Seminoles are fortunate to still be unbeaten and you get the sense that it's just a matter of time. Jimbo Fisher's team got all it wanted and more from Oklahoma St. in the season opener at AT&T Stadium, escaping with a 37-31 win. Then this past weekend with its star QB suspended for yet another knucklehead off-the-field decision, FSU needed overtime (and a short missed field goal by Clemson in regulation) to slip past its ACC adversary, 23-17, at Doak Campbell Stadium. Jimbo Fisher's team falls into a letdown spot this week in Raleigh, where it has lost outright in three of its last four visits.

3. Auburn -- Speaking of good fortune, Gus Malzahn's team got plenty of it in the form of three missed field goals and a dropped TD pass that turned into an interception in last Thursday's 20-14 win at Kansas St. Whatever the case, one of five daunting road assignments is in the books for Auburn, which still has road games at Mississippi St., Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Malzahn is one quirky dude, but he can damn sure coach. Even though the schedule looks like a killer, AU can't be counted out.

4. Oregon -- Marcus Mariota has been nothing short of sensational and that has been mandatory for the Ducks to remain unbeaten. Mariota guided Oregon to 28 unanswered points after trailing Michigan St. 27-18 with five minutes left in the third quarter in Eugene. Then last Saturday, Mariota had to throw five TD passes without being intercepted for his team to escape Pullman with a 38-31 win over Wazzu. The Pac-12 is deep this year and there's only one lay-up (vs. Colorado on Nov. 22) left on the slate.

5. Oklahoma -- Bob Stoops's squad faces its toughest road game of the season on Oct. 4 at TCU. The Sooners have looked good and if they survive the Horned Frogs, somebody is going to have to beat them in Norman to keep them out of the College Football Playoff.

6. Baylor -- The Bears have the nation's No. 1 offense despite missing a slew of key skill players in their first three games. The catch? They've played absolutely nobody. The bright side? The injured players are on their way back and regardless of the opponents, they have looked nasty enough to beat anybody.

7. Texas A&M -- This just in: Kevin Sumlin can coach. Kenny Hill would probably finish second if a Heisman vote was counted today. The Dallas Southlake High School product has a 13/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Check out this looming four-week stretch: vs. Arkansas (in Arlington), at Mississippi St., vs. Ole Miss and at Alabama. The defense is still a question mark and this unit will find out about its run defense Saturday against the Razorbacks.

Other teams most likely to be in the mix come early November: Georgia, Michigan State and Stanford.

**Pretenders**

1. Notre Dame - Trust me, it isn't happening. I'm not even sure the Irish will win nine games.

2. USC - The fan base got a big boost when Stanford beat itself (over and over and over again...) in Palo Alto earlier this month. However, the optimism was crushed at Boston College the following week. The depth just isn't there and although the schedule doesn't look overly daunting, the Trojans have at least two more losses left on the regular-season slate.

3. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have, to their credit, taken advantage of the easy schedule here early on, but their comeuppance awaits in East Lansing on Oct. 4. They'll lose at Camp Randall on Nov. 15, too. They could sweep a pair of road games at Northwestern and at Iowa, but a split is more likely.

**What to make of this trio?**

1. East Carolina - If QB Shane Carden isn't careful, he's going to end up in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He has the country's most underrated set of wide receivers, including the school's all-time leading receiver in Justin Hardy. ECU lost a tight game at South Carolina, but it has responded by winning at Va. Tech and blasting North Carolina for a second straight year. The Pirates put a 70-spot up on UNC's face and has scored 125 points against the Tar Heels in back-to-back wins the last two years.

2. BYU - The Cougars might be favored in the rest of their games, although we're not implying that it's ever easy to win on the smurf turf in Boise. UCF looked terrible in a loss at Missouri two weeks ago, but a cross-country trip to Orlando on a short week won't be easy, either. BYU has to go on the road to face an improved California team in the regular-season finale, too. With that said, Taysom Hill and Co. might go undefeated and if they do, it might sneak into the College Football Playoff if multiple contenders go down in upset fashion in November.

3. Mississippi State - My best 'over' (7.5) season win total is looking good early, especially after winning at LSU last weekend for the first time since 1991. QB Dak Prescott has been as advertised, but he'll have to play without his starting center (Dillon Day, 38 career starts, one-game suspension from SEC) next week against Texas A&M in Starkville. If the Bulldogs can split back-to-back home games (after an open date) vs. the Aggies and Auburn, they'll have a great shot at being 8-1 going into Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15.

**We're about to find out**

1. Ole Miss: vs. Alabama (Oct. 4).

2. Arkansas: vs. Texas A&M in Arlington on Saturday.

3. TCU: vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 4).

4. Duke: at Miami on Saturday, at Ga. Tech on Oct. 11.

5. Cincinnati: at Ohio St. on Saturday.

6. South Carolina: vs. Missouri on Saturday.

**Disappointments**

1. Michigan - Brady Hoke is in big trouble. Michigan took cream-cheese treatment at Notre Dame. It has the worst turnover margin (-10) in the country. The Wolverines lost outright -- this time by double digits -- to Utah at The Big House for the second time in a decade. It's all entirely too much for the locals in Ann Arbor to handle. The new coaching search is unofficially underway.

2. Ohio State - Sure, expectations went way down when Braxton Miller's shoulder gave out, but still, look at what's happened to Va. Tech since it went to Columbus and won by double digits. The Buckeyes are basically done in September and that just wasn't a good look from the head coach on HBO's 'Real Sports' last night.

3. UCLA - Has an undefeated preseason top-10 team ever looked so shaky? The Bruins are lucky that Arizona St. star QB Taylor Kelly is injured for Thursday's showdown in Tempe. Nevertheless, with QB Brett Hundley and LB/RB Myles Jack banged up, UCLA will still be on upset alert against the Sun Devils.

4. Miami, Fl. - The former players want Al Golden out in Coral Gables. The 'Canes still haven't gone to an ACC Championship Game. They might lose at home to Duke this weekend. If they do, sign up for a one-day follow of those UM/NFL alums on twitter if you're looking for amusement.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 5
By ASA

Game of the Week

Nebraska (-20) vs. Illinois - 9:00 p.m. ET
Nebraska is one of two remaining undefeated Big Ten schools (Penn State is the other) after it made a strong statement win over Miami (FL) last weekend. Credit Nebraska's offense for answering the call every time Miami cut into the lead in the 2nd half. RB Ameer Abdullah led the Huskers with 229 rush yards and three total TD against the Hurricanes while QB Armstrong was an efficient 9-of-13 for 113 yards and 2 TD. Defensively they allowed Miami QB Kaaya to have a big day (28-of-42 for 359 yards and 3 TD) but forced three turnovers and limited the effectiveness of RB Duke Johnson (93 rush yards). If Nebraska wants to keep ascending in the B1G, the defense will have to continue to improve, starting with a home date against a potent Illinois pass-offense this Saturday.

The Illini survived disaster last week against FCS Texas State. The Bobcats held a 21-6 lead in the 1st half before Illinois finally woke up. Illinois finally got a breakout performance from RB Josh Ferguson, who rushed for 190 yards and 2 TD after being held to 126 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. It became apparent in a blowout loss to Washington that QB Lunt wasn't going to be able to continuously lead this team to victory, so getting some help from the RB position is a much-needed development. The defense still needs a lot of work. A week after surrendering 464 yards and 44 points to Washington, the Illini looked even worse, allowing Texas State to gain 475 yards and 35 points. Bobcats' QB Jones completed 29-of-46 passes for 336 yards and 4 TD. That defense will need to clean things up fast, or Abdullah and this Husker offense will have a field day. These two have met just once as conference foes and that was last year in Lincoln. Nebraska won the game, 39-19, behind Abdullah's 225 rush yards and 2 TD and Armstrong's 135 pass yards and 2 TD.

Nebraska is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three home conference games and the Huskers are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more in Big Ten conference games. Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games as a double-digit underdog.

Best of the Rest

Penn State (-10.5) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET
A week after notching their first conference win over Rutgers, the Nittany Lions easily dispatched the Minutemen of UMass with a 48-7 victory. Although the opposition wasn't the greatest, it was a welcome sign for PSU that it finally got its rushing attack going, notching 228 rush yards on 5.1 YPC (previous game-high was 106 yards). For the first time this season the Nittany Lions weren't dependent on QB Hackenberg leading them to victory - though he's proven that's not the worst plan of attack. UMass' coaching staff praised PSU's defense, specifically the run defense. PSU allowed just 3 rush yards on 28 carries and the Nittany Lions now have the No. 1 rush defense in the nation, surrendering just 45 rush YPG. With an elite QB and a stout defense; if PSU's run game & offensive line continue to improve, the sky is the limit for the Nittany Lions this season.

This week Northwestern visits Happy Valley for the first meeting between these two since 2012. The Wildcats actually won Saturday, but they didn't look particularly good doing so. FCS Western Illinois outgained Northwestern 376-283 and had +7 first downs. The rushing attack was stalled for most of the game (finished with 166 yards on 4 YPC) and QB Siemian had difficulty passing against the FCS opponent. Siemian finished 15-of-25 for just 117 yards. If it weren't for Northwestern's defense forcing four turnovers, this game could've been a complete disaster for the Wildcats. Offensively the Wildcats rank 106th in rush YPG & total YPG and 104th in PPG. Penn State is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five against Northwestern, winning by an average of 16.4 PPG (all five wins have been by 10 points or more). PSU 11-4 ATS in the last 15 home games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Indiana (-4.5) vs. Maryland - 1:30 p.m. ET
Indiana notched the biggest non-conference victory by a Big Ten team this season in last week's road win at SEC's Missouri. Indiana scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining. Despite not being able to sustain many long drives (1-for-14 on 3rd down), the Hoosiers still racked up 493 yards against a good defense. RB Coleman rushed for 132 yards and a score while QB Sudfeld passed for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT (Indiana didn't commit a turnover). Credit the defense, while it wasn't great (surrendered 503 points and 28 first downs), it was able to lock down in key spots (Tigers were just 5-for-16 on 3rd down) and hold Missouri to just 27 points. The Hoosiers gave up a few big plays, but were able to limit Mizzou QB Mauk to just 29-of-48 passing. It was a much-needed win for the Hoosiers after losing to Bowling Green the week before. Now they'll have to avoid a letdown performance against a Maryland squad playing in its first ever B1G conference game.

After last week's road win at Syracuse, the Terps are now 2-0 on the road and prepping for their 3rd road game of the season this week in Bloomington. While Maryland won the game at Syracuse by 14 points, there are still things to be concerned about, most notably on defense. The Terps surrendered 589 yards and 26 first downs, including 370 rush yards on 7.3 YPC. Had Syracuse not finished -2 in turnovers, this outcome could've been a lot different. Maryland's rushing attack notched just 89 yards on 32 carries (2.8 YPC), but QB Brown had a solid day (16-of-26 for 280 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT). The Terps will have to get better at sustaining drives with their rushing attack, or else this Maryland "D" that ranks 102nd against the run and 108th in YPG allowed will have a tough time against this high-octane Indiana offense. Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home games against B1G foes.

The Hoosiers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite between 0 and 7 points. Maryland is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog, but just 3-6 ATS overall in its last nine as an underdog between 0 and 7 points.

Purdue (+9) vs. Iowa - 12:00 p.m. ET
Purdue achieved its 2nd win of the season last week, doubling last year's win total. Sure, it came against FCS Southern Illinois, but it was a promising development heading into Big Ten play. QB Etling played well, tossing for 198 yards and 2 scores on 15-of-26 passing while also rushing for a score. The Boilers also rushed for a solid 183 yards on 4.2 YPC behind a three-headed attack of RB's. Defensively they still need a lot of work. They allowed 330 yards and 20 first downs, and allowed the Salukis to convert on 10-of-18 3rd downs. This is still a team with a lot of questions; most notably on defense and at quarterback.

Purdue will host its first conference game of the season against Iowa, who is off of a big win of its own. The Hawkeyes fought back from a 10-point 2nd half deficit to take the lead with 6:56 remaining in the 4th behind a stellar performance from backup QB Beathard. The defense held Pitt out of the end zone, preserving the 24-20 victory. Credit the Hawkeyes for coming out on top of a game that was largely dominated by the Panthers. Pitt had +124 yards and +7 first downs, but the Panthers 'D' had no answer for Beathard in the 2nd half. Beathard completed 7-of-8 passes for 98 yards after Rudock left with an unspecified injury. The sophomore opened the week of practice as the starter as Rudock is day-to-day with a leg injury. Iowa continues to struggle running the football (under 4 YPC for the 3rd straight week) and an infuse in the passing game behind Beathard could be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawkeyes to spark their offense. Iowa won last year's matchup by 24 points, and is 3-1 SU & ATS in the last four meetings in West Lafayette.

The Hawkeyes are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 7 points or more. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home underdog of 7 points or more, losing by an average of 39 points per game.

Michigan (-11.5) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET
Brady Hoke's seat is getting pretty hot in Ann Arbor as his Wolverines continue to underachieve. They are off of an embarrassing home loss to Utah last Saturday. Michigan turned the ball over four times and tallied just 308 total yards and 10 points. QB Gardner, who was 14-of-26 with 2 INT against Utah, was replaced by Shane Morris, who wasn't much of an improvement (4-of-13 with an INT). Brady Hoke hasn't stated which quarterback will get the call this week, but you can expect a little bit of both, regardless of who starts. The rushing attack wasn't much help either, managing just 118 yards on 3.3 YPC. Defensively there aren't a lot of issues as this may be one of the better units in the Big Ten. They held Utah to just 286 yards, including just 81 yards on 2.2 YPC. But that won't matter if Michigan continues to stink it up on offense. First up on the conference slate is a home date with Minnesota.

Minnesota is off of a 17-point home win over San Jose State. The Gophers rushed 58 times for 380 yards and only completed one pass in the victory. Minny will likely have to complete more than one pass, assuming that Michigan's 8th ranked rush defense limits the Gophers ground game. QB Chris Streveler rushed for 161 yards and a touchdown, but it remains to be seen if he is any threat in the passing game. QB Leidner has practiced this week and hasn't been ruled out for this game, but expect that Streveler gets the start. Minnesota hasn't beaten Michigan since 2005. Michigan is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six meetings, winning by an average of 28.3 PPG (each win by 14 points or more). This will be the 2nd straight meeting in Ann Arbor. Last year, Michigan had just a 14-7 lead at halftime but outscored the Gophers 28-6 in the 2nd half to achieve the 42-13 victory.

Michigan is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite of 10 points or more.

Ohio State (-15.5) vs. Cincinnati - 6:00 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes enjoyed a bye week last week after a drubbing of Kent State two weeks ago. The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against KSU to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. OSU now plays its third consecutive home game when Cincinnati comes to town on Saturday.

Cincinnati has played just two games so far, but its safe to assume the defense isn't great. They allowed 563 yards and 34 points in a win against Toledo, and 364 yards and 24 points to a terrible Miami (OH) team last week. They now rank 111th against the pass and 109th in total defense. That's not a good omen heading into a matchup with an OSU squad that just put up a 66-spot. Former top-QB recruit Gunner Kiel runs the show for Cincinnati's offense after transferring from Notre Dame. He has racked up 689 yards with 10 TD and 2 INT through two games, albeit against two poor defenses. He'll get his first difficult test in the Horseshoe on Saturday against OSU's pass-defense that is surrendering just 99.3 pass YPG (3rd nationally) with 2 TD allowed and 5 INT. These in-state foes have met twice since 2004 with the last matchup in 2006. OSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS in those two games, winning by an average score of 32-6.5. OSU is 24-14 ATS in its last 38 home games.

The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a favorite between 10 and 20 points. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four home openers and just 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games as a double-digit underdog.

Wisconsin (-34) vs. South Florida - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Badgers had no issues at home against Bowling Green last week. They rushed for the fourth-most yards in Big Ten history (644) behind a HUGE day from RB Gordon. After notching just 38 yards on 17 carries against FCS Western Illinois; the star RB ran angry. He rushed for 253 yards and five TD on just 13 carries. It was one of the most dominating rushing performances you'll ever see as Gordon, QB McEvoy, and backup RB Clement all topped 100 yards - 3rd string RB Ogunbowale nearly hit the century mark but finished just short with 94 rush yards. Wisconsin will continue to pound the ball to aid 1st year starting QB McEvoy who continues to improve each week (32-of-44 passing for 395 yards with 4 TD the last two games). Defensively it may just be the competition, but the Badgers defense looks to be one of the top units in the B1G. They rank 15th against the run, 25th against the pass, and 14 in PPG allowed. The defensive unit should have another solid day against this struggling USF offense.

The Bulls had a three-point home win over UConn last week to improve their record to 2-2 on the season. It wasn't a pretty performance as USF tallied just 271 yards in the pouring rain, including 158 rush yards on 3.0 YPC. The Bulls' offense is now 119th in pass yards, 118th in total yards, and 101st in PPG. Their QB play has been below-average at best as three players have combined for 39% completions with 2 TD and 5 INT through four games. USF QB's will have another tough day against this Badgers pass-defense that has surrendered just 49.3% completions with 2 TD and 2 INT this season. The Badgers are 62-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 30-0 SU against non-conference opponents.

Wisconsin is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road openers (includes covers against Penn State in 2005 and Michigan State in 2013).

Michigan State (-31) vs. Wyoming - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Spartans continue to look like the best team in the Big Ten after an absolutely dominating performance against Eastern Michigan. Take a look at some of these offensive numbers for EMU: 135 total yards, 5 first downs, 20 rush yards on 19 carries, 1-for-13 on 3rd down, and 10-of-29 passing. A lot of the Spartans' starters didn't even get two full quarters of play before they were replaced and MSU still won, 73-14. It was just the type of dominating performance the Spartans needed after losing their last game to Oregon. This week it could be more of the same as Wyoming visits for MSU's homecoming.

Wyoming isn't as bad as Eastern Michigan, but the Cowboys' struggling offense will be hard pressed to put up points against this Spartans defense. Wyoming ranks 102nd in yards per game and 121st in points per game. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game yet this season. Defensively they held three of their four opponents below 20 points, but Oregon put up 48 points and 556 yards in a 34 point loss on September 13th. Wyoming is in a letdown spot here after beating Florida Atlantic by one point last week on a field goal with 15 seconds remaining.

Michigan State is 4-2 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of 30 points or more and 6-3 ATS in the last nine as a double-digit favorite against non-conference foes. Wyoming is 4-0 in its last four games as an underdog of 30 points or more.

Rutgers (-11.5) vs. Tulane - 12:00 p.m. ET
Rutgers notched a solid road win over Navy last weekend, a much-needed victory after dropping a close one to Penn State on September 13. The Scarlet Knights jumped out to an early lead and were able to control the TOP, something that rarely happens against Navy. They limited Navy to just 171 rush yards - 174 below Navy's season average. Rutgers QB Nova was an efficient 11-of-14 passing for 151 yards while the Knights also rushed for 284 yards on 5.1 YPC. The win came at a price, however, as Rutgers lost star tailback Paul James to a season-ending torn ACL. James was Rutgers’ workhorse, the most consistent part about the Knights’ offense. In James’ first three games this season, he accounted for more than 60 percent of the team’s rushing yards while scoring 7 total TD. It was a promising sign that James' replacement, Justin Goodwin, rushed for 104 yards on 26 carries with 1 TD last week after James left with an injury. Still, losing James will be a big blow for this already struggling offense.

Goodwin and this rush offense will have a chance to get right without James against the Green Wave rush-defense that allows 203 YPG on the ground. Tulane is 1-3 this season with the lone victory coming against FCS Southeastern Louisiana. The Wave are off of a blowout loss to Duke last week. Duke forced five Tulane turnovers - returning 2 INT for TD - and limited the Wave to just 5-for-18 on 3rd down and 13 total points. Tulane QB Lee has been awful. He's completing just 47.4% of his passes with 8 TD and 9 INT. These two have met twice since 2010. Rutgers is 0-2 ATS in both meetings.

Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games and also just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. Tulane is 16-9 ATS in its last 23 games, but just 1-3 ATS so far this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers

Heading into Week 5 of the college football season, there are plenty of play-against teams to keep an eye on. Several of these squads are still heavy underdogs, but some of them aren’t receiving as many points but are still poor clubs to back. This week, we’ll take a look at six squads who continue to underachieve and are strong looks to bet against.

Vanderbilt (+17) at Kentucky – 12:00 PM EST

The Commodores managed their first cover of the season in last week’s 48-34 home defeat to South Carolina as 23-point underdogs. Vandy grabbed an early 14-0 lead, but the Gamecocks scored 48 points in the final three quarters, while two touchdowns by the Commodores came on kickoff returns. Now, the Commodores hit the road for the first time following a 1-3 start, while allowing at least 31 points in each of the first four games.

Vanderbilt put together a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog last season, heading to Lexington to battle a rested Wildcats’ team. Kentucky cashed as 17 ½-point ‘dogs in a triple-overtime setback at Florida two weeks ago, while easily covering in home blowouts of Tennessee-Martin and Ohio. The Wildcats have lost three straight games to Vanderbilt since 2011, as these teams normally face each other in November. Kentucky is favored for the first time in conference action since 2010, when the Wildcats last beat Vandy, 38-20 as 17-point ‘chalk.’

Tulane (+11 ½) at Rutgers – 12:00 PM EST

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a strong effort in last Saturday’s 31-24 victory at Navy as six-point underdogs after their heartbreaking loss to Penn State. Rutgers hosts a Tulane squad that hung with Duke last week before the Blue Devils outscored the Green Wave, 28-6 in the second half, capped off by a pair of interception returns for touchdowns.

The Green Wave hits the highway again this Saturday, as Tulane has allowed at least 38 points in each of its three losses. Last season, Tulane posted a 7-2 ATS record as an underdog, but the Wave isn’t having the same luck this season with an 0-3 ATS mark when receiving points. Rutgers has covered in three of its four contests, but all three ATS victories have come in the underdog role. The lone non-cover for the Scarlet Knights came in 38-25 win over Howard as heavy 38-point favorites.

SMU (+32 ½) vs. TCU – 12:00 PM EST

How many points is too many points to lay against SMU? To review, the Mustangs were 31 ½-point underdogs in a 45-0 shutout at Baylor to open the season. SMU followed up that dreadful performance with a 43-6 drubbing at North Texas as 2 ½-point ‘dogs, then were wiped out at home by Texas A&M as 33 ½-point ‘dogs, 58-6. Now, the Mustangs will try to hang around with their Metroplex rival, as SMU has put up just one touchdown in 12 quarters, which came on the final play of the loss at North Texas.

The Horned Frogs have gone through each of their two bye weeks already, while owning a 2-0 SU/ATS record. TCU struggled last season with a 4-8 record, but has picked up blowout victories over Samford and Minnesota to start this season. Prior history doesn’t mean much with SMU’s horrible start, but TCU has won six of the past seven meetings in this series, while the Mustangs have covered five times as a double-digit underdog.

Akron (+20) at Pittsburgh – 1:30 PM EST

The Zips began the season with some promise by blowing out Howard, 41-0 as 25-point favorites. Then Akron stepped up in class and dropped a pair of games to Penn State (21-3) and Marshall (48-17), while not covering either contest as a double-digit underdog. Both of Akron’s touchdowns last week against Marshall came in the fourth quarter, as the Zips snapped a seven-quarter streak of being held out of the end zone.

Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season in a 24-20 home defeat to Iowa, as the Panthers blew a 17-7 lead. The Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes, 435-311, as Pitt has out-yarded each of its four opponents by at least 120 yards. Since 2012, Pittsburgh has covered six of its past nine games as a favorite at Heinz Field, while putting together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record in its previous five home contests off a loss.

Kent State (+23 ½) at Virginia – 3:30 PM EST

The Cavaliers were the worst team in the ACC last season, but have put together two solid performances the last two weeks against Louisville and BYU. UVA upset Louisville as a short four-point home underdog, while covering as 14 ½-point ‘dogs in a 41-33 defeat at BYU to improve to 4-0 ATS this season.

Kent State has been anything but flashy this season, coming off a 66-0 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State two weeks ago. The Golden Flashes have just 27 points in three losses, while dropping eight of their past 10 games since last October. How bad has it been for Kent State on the road against non-conference opponents since the start of 2013? Opponents have outscored the Golden Flashes, 183-34, as Kent State lost to LSU, Penn State, South Alabama, and Ohio State, while covering just once.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson

The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week highlighted by key matchups in the Big XII and Pac-12. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State face off in an opening conference game for both teams after 2-1 starts to the season and this will be a key game in the conference pecking order for two programs expected to slide a bit downward this season despite great success in the last decade.

Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma
Date: Thursday, September 25, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Oklahoma State -14
Last Meeting: 2013, Oklahoma State (PK) 52-34 at Texas Tech

Both teams were ranked in the top 18 of the polls last season when Oklahoma State visited the then 7-1 Red Raiders last season. Texas Tech had just suffered its first loss of the season to Oklahoma in a tight game and Oklahoma State stormed out to a 21-0 lead before Texas Tech crept within four by halftime with the help of a defensive touchdown. Ultimately the balanced offense for Oklahoma State was too much as the Cowboys pulled away in a game where Texas Tech had more yards.

That loss wound up being the second of five straight losses to close the regular season for Texas Tech after a 7-0 start but the Red Raiders did get a redeeming Holiday Bowl win over Arizona State. Oklahoma State wound up with a 10-2 regular season but they surrendered the Big XII title and a possible BCS bowl spot losing to Oklahoma in the season finale and then wound up losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. With the season opening loss to Florida State this year it marked the first time since Mike Gundy’s first season in 2005 that the program had lost three consecutive games.

With very few starters back from last season’s team most have projected a fall for Oklahoma State this season and the Cowboys were a heavy underdog in the opening week game with Florida State in Arlington. Oklahoma State lost but earned a lot of respect in the defeat, taking the defending national champions down to the wire in a 37-31 game, rallying back from an early 17-0 deficit. Oklahoma State responded with wins in the next two weeks, although the 40-23 win over FCS Missouri State was not thoroughly impressive. The 43-13 win over Texas San Antonio was much more credible however as the Roadrunners have a strong veteran team that beat Houston and took Arizona to a three-point game in their other contests.

Junior quarterback J.W. Walsh was given a shot to start for the Cowboys last season but he eventually conceded the lead role to Clint Chelf. After a strong opening game this season Walsh unfortunately injured his foot in the game versus Missouri State, leaving junior Daxx Garman in charge of the Cowboys offense. Garman has filled in admirably with 559 passing yards and no interceptions but he is nowhere near the rushing threat that Walsh was and the competition will escalate in Big XII play.

Oklahoma State will face a Texas Tech defense that has allowed nearly 37 points per game this season despite a reasonably favorable schedule. Allowing 49 points against Arkansas is one thing but UTEP posted 26 points and Central Arkansas posted 35 points in narrow wins for the Red Raiders. The defensive staff is in flux right now as defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt resigned last week with speculation that the move was related to substance abuse rather than performance. Outside linebackers coach Mike Smith has taken over the defense for the rest of the season under second year head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Texas Tech still possesses one of the great passing offenses in the nation and sophomore quarterback Davis Webb has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in three games. He does have four interceptions already this season and he did struggle with less than 55 percent completions in his lone road start this season. The Red Raiders are aiming to be a bit more balanced offensively this season so far rushing for over 170 yards per game after averaging fewer than 120 yards per game on the ground last season.

For both teams the strength of the team and the coaching staff are on offense and both teams returned very few key experienced players on defense this season. Over the last three seasons this matchup has averaged nearly 80 points per game with Oklahoma State now having won and covered in five straight seasons in this series and another higher scoring game seems likely to kick off the college football weekend.

Line Movement: The line opened at -15 before falling to -13 and bouncing back to -14.

Texas Tech Historical Trends: Texas Tech has lost S/U & ATS in five straight meetings in this series while going 1-8 ATS vs. Oklahoma State since 2005. The Red Raiders are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2005 and 4-12 ATS coming off a S/U loss since 2011. The Red Raiders are just 3-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2010.

Oklahoma State Historical Trends: Oklahoma State is 85-62-1 ATS at home since 2002 and 41-18 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2002. In that span Oklahoma State is impressively 29-10 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. The Cowboys are 4-0 S/U & ATS in the last four home meetings with Texas Tech going back to 2005.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET (ESPNU)
Line: Georgia Southern -16

These FBS newcomers played regularly as Southern Conference members at the FCS level. Georgia Southern is the heavy favorite this week and this is a team that has made some noise already this season with a 2-2 start including a 28-6 win at South Alabama last week while also giving great scares to both NC State and Georgia Tech in narrow losses.

It is Appalachian State that has won the last three meetings between these programs however, including a 38-14 win last season with the Mountaineers posting 515 yards against the Eagles team that would eventually upset Florida late last season. Appalachian State is 1-2 this season with only a win over lowly FCS Campbell. In the hyped opening game with Michigan the Mountaineers did not compete well and last week with a great opportunity for a win the Mountaineers fell 21-20 against Southern Miss on the road. That was a game where Appalachian State had significant yardage edges and many great scoring opportunities but wound up missing three field goals. Despite the kicking woes the Mountaineers went for the tie upon scoring late and the cowardly move was punished with a blocked extra point to seal the defeat.

Georgia Southern is rushing for 357 yards per game this season, the second best mark nationally at this point in the season and this is even with the loss of running back Jerick McKinnon to the NFL. Appalachian State has been a bit more balanced and last week highly regarded redshirt freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb got his first start and played the full game, leading a productive attack but one that failed to cash in on several opportunities.


UCLA at Arizona State 10:00 PM ET (FOX1)
Line: UCLA -5½

Two undefeated Pac-12 South contenders face off Thursday night in what should be one of the bigger games of the Pac-12 season but injuries have soured the appeal of the game. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has been banged up with an elbow issue but is expected to play but senior Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly has been ruled out with a foot injury. Kelly had a brilliant season leading the Sun Devils to the division title last season and he will be replaced by senior Mike Bercovici who has played sparingly.

Last season Arizona State won 38-33 at UCLA in a matchup of top 20 teams late in the season in a game that clinched the division title for the Sun Devils. Arizona State had a modest yardage edge but benefitted from a defensive touchdown to build a 35-13 lead at halftime before UCLA made a valiant comeback that fell just short. UCLA opened the season projected as a national title contender but in a 3-0 S/U and 0-3 ATS start the Bruins have had underwhelming offensive numbers. The schedule has featured quality opposition but more was expected of a team with great experience coming off last season’s 10-3 campaign highlighted by blowout wins over USC and Virginia Tech to close the year.

Outside of Kelly the Sun Devils have one of the least experienced teams in the conference but Todd Graham did pull in some quality transfers to boost the squad. Arizona State is 3-0 but the schedule has been weak and the defense has looked vulnerable against questionable competition. UCLA has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings in this series but Arizona State has won S/U in four of the last seven meetings and the Bruins are just 25-37 ATS as a road favorite since 1988.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UCLA, ASU clash in the desert

UCLA BRUINS (3-0) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (3-0)
Line & Total: Arizona State -5.5, Total: 59.5

Thursday night will be a huge night in determining the Pac-12 conference, as No. 11 UCLA travels to Tempe to take on No. 15 Arizona State.

Quarterback play is big in any game, but it may be even more important on Thursday night. In a 20-17 victory against Texas on Sept. 13, Bruins star QB Brett Hundley left the game early with an arm injury, but Jerry Neuheisel was able to come in and get the victory for the team. Right now, UCLA has not commented on who will be the starting quarterback in this game.

However, for Arizona State, QB Taylor Kelly will not start after suffering a foot injury. That means junior QB Mike Bercovici will get the start for the Sun Devils. While the Bruins (0-3 ATS) have not been dominant early in the season, winning all three of their games by a combined 18 points, the Sun Devils (1-2 ATS) have done a good job of taking care of business by winning all three of their games by at least 14 points.

This series has been tight since 1992 with ASU holding a 10-9 SU advantage, and UCLA having the 9-8-2 ATS edge. The Sun Devils hold a 5-3 SU edge at home in this timeframe with the clubs splitting the games 4-4 ATS. The past three meetings have been decided by a total of eight points with the Bruins winning 29-28 in 2011 and 45-43 in 2012 before falling at home to ASU last year, 38-33.

This series also has led to a lot of high-scoring games, as 11 of the past 17 meetings have finished Over the total. While UCLA is 49-31 ATS (61%) in September games since 1992, Arizona State's Todd Graham is 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less as a college head coach.

Bruins LB Myles Jack (ankle) and Sun Devils DB Ezekiel Bishop (undisclosed) headline the list of players who are questionable for this game.

The Bruins were able to find out they have a quality backup after QB Jerry Neuheisel’s performance against Texas when he completed 23-of-30 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns. While he showed he can win, going on the road in conference play is much more difficult. If QB Brett Hundley (686 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) is unable to go for the Bruins, they lose a guy at the quarterback position who can make plays with both his arm and his legs (74 rush yards, 1 TD).

If Neuheisel is playing quarterback, that means UCLA will have to get a big performance from RB Paul Perkins (304 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 2 TD). Perkins also does a nice job of catching the ball out in the flat with nine grabs for 80 yards this season. The air attack of UCLA has been strong this year with 288.0 passing YPG (32nd in nation), but the ground game must continue to improve upon its 159.0 rushing YPG (73rd in FBS). Whoever is playing quarterback will have a talented wide receiver to throw to in Jordan Payton (19 catches, 266 yards, 1 TD). He is a big, athletic receiver that is not scared to go over the middle, and was the target that Neuheisel connected with to win the game with 3:00 remaining versus Texas.

Like the offense, there is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but this unit has had its struggles as well. The Bruins rank 60th in FBS in points allowed (24.0 PPG), but a big portion of that was given up against Memphis in a 42-35 win on Sept. 6. LB Myles Jack (26 tackles, 2 PD) is one of the elite players in all of the country, but he injured his ankle in the Texas game, and like with Hundley, the Bruins have not said what his status is for Thursday. LB Erik Kendricks (37 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler on the UCLA defense.

For the Sun Devils, who have the No. 7 scoring offense in the nation (47.0 PPG), adjusting to life without QB Taylor Kelly (625 pass yards, 168 rush yards, 7 total TD) won't be easy. Kelly is similar to Hundley in that he can make plays in all areas of the game.

While QB Mike Bercovici (14-for-24, 112 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in career) does not have a lot of experience, he does have one of the elite ball carriers in the country on his team in RB D.J. Foster (510 rush yards, 9.4 YPC, 5 TD). Foster is a threat every time he touches the ball, and he can also create a lot of havoc in the screen game as well.

At wide receiver, the Sun Devils have another one of the top FBS players in junior WR Jaelen Strong (19 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD). At 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, he is a matchup nightmare at the position. He is too big and strong for corners, but ASU can line him in the slot, where he will run away from safeties. For Bercovici being inexperienced, he will look for Strong early and often in this game.

DB Damarious Randall (26 tackles) is the leading tackler on the 38th-ranked scoring defense (20.3 PPG) in the country. Like the Sun Devils offense, the defense is a unit that relies heavily on speed. DB Jordan Simone had an interception in the win against Colorado, and these guys will have to be ready to defend against Payton as one of their mates in the secondary, DB Ezekiel Bishop, may be out due to injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: UCLA at Arizona State

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (+4.5, 59.5)

Arizona State will have to get by without its starting quarterback when the No. 12 Sun Devils host No. 10 UCLA in a key Pac-12 contest on Thursday night. Taylor Kelly remains sidelined with a right foot injury suffered Sept. 13 against Colorado, the last time the Sun Devils played a game. UCLA might also have to go with a backup as quarterback Brett Hundley remains questionable with an injury to his non-throwing elbow, which occurred in a Sept. 13 win versus Texas.

In the absence of Kelly, Mike Bercovici will make his first collegiate start for Arizona State and he’s familiar to UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone, who recruited him when he was an assistant coach at Arizona State under former head coach Dennis Erickson. If Hundley is unable to play against the Sun Devils, the Bruins would likely start Jerry Neuheisel, son of former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, but coach Jim Mora also indicated freshman Asiantii Woulard might get some action behind center. Hundley would certainly be missed, as he has completed 70.4 percent of his passes through three games, accounting for 686 yards and three touchdowns through the air.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Sun Devils as 5.5-point home dogs, but that now sits +4.

INJURY REPORT: UCLA - QB Brett Hundley (Probable, elbow), OL Jake Brendel (Questionable, knee), OL Conor McDermott (Questionable, undisclosed). Arizona State - DE Ezekiel Bishop (Questionable, undisclosed).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-90s with clear skies.

POWER RANKINGS: UCLA (-15.5) - Arizona State (-14.5) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona State -2

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Status of both starting quarterbacks (UCLA’s Brett Hundley questionable; Arizona State’s Taylor Kelly out) has put line on this contest in question. Bruins will look to snap a gnarly 0-8 ATS road record when seeking conference revenge (lost, 38-33, to ASU last season) while the Sun Devils look to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2007 in this battle of PAC-12 South division leaders." March Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “As we expected, the betting community believes the underdog on national TV has a good chance to upset. We’re in the mid 60s as far as percentile for ASU side and moneyline. This spread has slowly crept down after a small initial jump and we just moved to +3.5. I won’t be surprised if this one closes at a field goal.” John Lester.

ABOUT UCLA (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Bruins have found little room in the run game this season but one of the few bright spots has been the play of Paul Perkins, who has rushed for 304 yards and three touchdowns this season. He posted the first 100-yard rushing game of his career in the win against Texas, finishing with 126 yards on 24 carries, and his bruising running style should wear on the Sun Devils. UCLA returned its top four rushers from last season but are still looking for Jordon James and Myles Jack to flash the elusiveness they showed a year ago.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): De’Marieya Nelson caught seven passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns last season but the 6-3, 224-pound senior is expected to see more action at linebacker than tight end against the Bruins. He had 16 tackles on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, forced two fumbles and recovered another. Nelson is also a key special-teams player for the Sun Devils, making him one of the rare three-way stars of college football.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Sun Devils last six games following a bye week.
* Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of wagers are backing Arizona State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arizona State-UCLA trending Over
Stephen Campbell

When UCLA and Arizona State get together, high totals tend to follow. The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two schools.

Arizona State hosts UCLA in college football action Thursday. The Bruins are currently four-point road faves with the total set at 60.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Over sizzling with Texas Tech playing on turf
Stephen Campbell

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have a history of participating in high-scoring games on fieldturf, evidenced by the Over going 7-1 in their last eight games on the artificial surface.

Texas Tech will be playing on turf once again when they visit Oklahoma State Thursday evening. The Cowboys are presently 13.5-point home faves with a total of 70.5 for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Betting Trends - Thurs, Sept. 25

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern, 7:30 ET
Appalachian St: 2-0 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Georgia S: 6-0 ATS in all lined games

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, 7:30 ET
Texas Tech: 21-8 ATS off a home loss
Oklahoma St: 75-46 ATS as a favorite

UCLA at Arizona State, 7:30 ET
UCLA: 9-27 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
Arizona St: 16-4 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

APPALACHIAN ST (1 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (2 - 2) - 9/25/2014, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons


TEXAS TECH (2 - 1) at OKLAHOMA ST (2 - 1) - 9/25/2014, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 75-46 ATS (+24.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OKLAHOMA ST is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


UCLA (3 - 0) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 0) - 9/25/2014, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
UCLA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

TEXAS TECH vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Texas Tech's last 12 games on the road
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 6 games when playing at home against Texas Tech

APPALACHIAN STATE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Appalachian State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Appalachian State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Ga Southern is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games
Ga Southern is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

UCLA vs. ARIZONA STATE
UCLA is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
UCLA is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern
Appalachian St: 2-0 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Georgia S: 6-0 ATS in all lined games

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Texas Tech: 21-8 ATS off a home loss
Oklahoma St: 75-46 ATS as a favorite

UCLA at Arizona State
UCLA: 9-27 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
Arizona St: 16-4 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Appalachian State trailed Southern Miss 20-14 last week, scored tying TD with 0:06 left, then had PAT blocked and lost 21-20, even though ASU outgained Southern Miss by 66 yards. ASU beat Eagles last three years, by 7-3-21 points- they won three of last four visits here. Eagles are pretty good, losing to NC State/Ga Tech on road by combined total of five points- they won 28-6 at South Alabama last week, even though they only completed six passes the whole game.

Oklahoma State doesn't play a road game until October 11, because they lost 7 starters on both sides of ball; OSU lost 37-31 to Florida State on a neutral field, so they're pretty good- they're 24-9 in last 33 games as a home favorite. Cowboys won last five games with Texas Tech, scoring 59 ppg in last three meetings, winning by 18-38-60 points. Tech failed to cover its last four visits here. Red Raiders gave up 438 rushing yards in last game, a 49-28 home loss to Arkansas- it was so bad they fired their defensive coordinator, saying he coached under the influence. Really.

Arizona State is 2-3 in last five games with UCLA; last three series tilts were decided by total of 8 points. Sun Devils lost QB Kelly; major step down to backup Bercovici, who threw four passes LY, is 9-17 this year. ASU won easily at New Mexico/Colorado, but they have to scale back their offense bigtime now. Bruins gutted out 20-17 win at Texas behind backup QB Neuheisel; check Hundley's (elbow) status for this. There is a big dropoff for them if Hundley sits, but not as much as ASU has. UCLA lost four of last six visits here; they're 5-2 as road underdogs in Mora era. Sun Devils are 9-4 as home favorites under Graham.