Thursday 9/14/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

UEFA Europa League

1pm ET

Atalanta v Everton

Referee: Vladislav Bezborodov

Last Head-To-Heads at Atalanta:
non

Recent Form:
Atalanta: 3-2-1
Everton: 1-2-2

KEY STAT: Atalanta lost just three home games last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Ronald Koeman’s rebuild at Everton will take time to settle and his side look too short for this trip to Italy. Atalanta were flattered by their fourth-place finish in Serie A last term but they deserve respect on home soil after holding Juventus in Bergamo in 2016-17 and beating fellow top-four pair Roma and Napoli.

RECOMMENDATION: Atalanta (3)

 

[Pesos]

Soccer

UEFA Europa League

3:05pm ET

Arsenal v Cologne (FC Koln)

Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez

Last Head-To-Heads at Arsenal:
2-1 (Arsenal Win)

Recent Form:
Arsenal: 2-2-1
Cologne: 1-3-1

KEY STAT: Arsenal have two clean sheets in seven league games

EXPERT VERDICT: A fully focused Arsenal should have the beating of Bundesliga boys Cologne, but it’s hard to trust the fickle Gunners in their current condition. A small-stakes odds-against bet on both teams to score looks less risky as both teams are in fluctuating form but ship goals at an alarming rate.

RECOMMENDATION: Both Teams to Score (1)

 

[Pesos]

MLB

National League

Braves @ Nationals
Foltynewicz is 0-6, 8.07 in his last six starts; his last three starts stayed under. Atlanta is 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-13-6

Roark is 2-1, 3.65 in his last four starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts. Washington is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-2

Braves won their last four games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games overall. Washington won six of last nine games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Marlins @ Phillies
Urena is 4-1, 3.26 in his last seven starts; under is 6-3-2 in his last 11. Miami is 10-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3

Thompson is 0-2, 8.57 in his last four starts (over 3-2). Phillies are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

Marlins lost 14 of last 16 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven. Philly won three of last four games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Mets @ Cubs
Lugo is 1-2, 5.58 in his last six starts; over is 9-3-1 in his last 13 starts. New York is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3

Tseng makes his big league debut here; he was 6-1, 1.80 in nine AAA starts this season.

Mets lost their last three games; over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 games. Cubs lost six of last ten games; over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Reds @ Cardinals
Garrett is 0-5, 11.86 in his last seven starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Reds are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-1

Weaver is 5-0, 1.71 in his last five starts (over 3-3). St Louis is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-1

Reds lost six of last eight road games (under 5-2-1). St Louis won eight of last ten games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Bettis is 2-2, 5.24 in six starts this season (under 5-1). Colorado split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

Godley is 2-0, 3.32 in his last three starts; under is 9-5-2 in his last 16. Arizona is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4

Rockies won eight of their last ten games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Arizona lost four of last six games; over is 6-2-2 in their last ten home games.
______________________________________________________

American League

White Sox @ Tigers
Shields is 1-2, 4.29 in his last six starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-11-3

Bell is 0-1, 7.27 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Detroit lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

White Sox won four of last five games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Chicago is 7-16 in road series openers. Detroit lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games. Tigers are 1-8 in last nine home series openers.

A’s @ Red Sox
Gossett is 1-2, 5.06 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Oakland is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Pomeranz is 5-1, 3.00 in his last seven starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Boston is 11-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11

A’s won six of their last seven games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Boston won five of last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Royals @ Indians
Junis is 4-0, 2.48 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Royals are 4-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

Tomlin is 6-0, 2.45 in his last seven starts; under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Cleveland is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-4

Royals won three of last five games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. KC is 11-12 in road series openers. Cleveland won its last 21 games; under is 15-5 in their last 20 home games. Indians won their last nine home series openers.

Baltimore @ New York
Miley is 2-3, 3.95 in his last five starts (under 5-0). Baltimore is 9-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-15-2

Tanaka is 3-1, 4.32 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. New York is 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-2

Orioles lost six of last seven games; their last six games stayed under. Baltimore is 9-14 in road series openers. New York won four of last five games (under 4-1). NY is 14-8 in home series openers.

Mariners @ Rangers
Hernandez is making his first start since July 31; he is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts. Under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Seattle is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1

Cashner is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Texas is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-3

Mariners lost six of their last eight road games; eight of their last nine games overall stayed under. Texas lost five of last seven games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games.

Blue Jays @ Twins
Anderson is 1-1, 3.06 in three starts this year (under 3-0). Blue Jays lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-2

Berrios is 1-2, 4.44 in his last four starts (under 14-7-1). Minnesota is 8-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-3

Blue Jays won four of last five games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Toronto is 6-11 in last 17 road series openers. Minnesota won five of last seven games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games. Twins are 13-11 in home series openers.

Astros @ Angels
Peacock is 1-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11 starts. Houston is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-3-2

Nolasco is 0-1, 5.40 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Angels are 5-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-16-4

Astros lost five of their last six games, five of which went over the total. Angels lost four of last six games, five of which stayed under.
______________________________________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:

National League:
Atl-Wsh: Foltynewicz 13-14; Roark 16-10
Mia-Phil: Urena 16-8; Thompson 2-3
NY-Chi: Lugo 8-6; Tseng 0-0
Cin-StL: Garrett 4-9; Weaver 5-1
Colo-Az: Bettis 3-3; Godley 13-9

American League
Chi-Det: Shields 7-11; Bell 0-2
A’s-Bos: Gossett 5-9; Pomeranz 19-9
Balt-NY: Miley 15-14; Tanaka 14-13
KC-Clev: Junis 9-3; Tomlin 11-12
Sea-Tex: Hernandez 7-6; Cashner 12-12
Tor-Minn: Anderson 1-2; Berrios 12-10
Hst-LA: Peacock 12-6; Nolasco 10-19

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:

National League
Atl-Wsh: Foltynewicz 4-27; Roark 10-26
Mia-Phil: Urena 4-24; Thompson 2-5
NY-Chi: Lugo 4-14; Tseng 0-0
Cin-StL: Garrett 6-13; Weaver 1-6
Colo-Az: Bettis 2-6; Godley 4-22

American League
Chi-Det: Shields 6-18; Bell 2-2
A’s-Bos: Gossett 2-14; Pomeranz 8-28
Balt-NY: Miley 11-29; Tanaka 11-27
KC-Clev: Junis 3-12; Tomlin 7-23
Sea-Tex: Hernandez 7-13; Cashner 6-24
Tor-Minn: Anderson 1-3; Berrios 6-22
Hst-LA: Peacock 2-18; Nolasco 12-29
______________________________________________________

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 83-56 AL, favorites -$36
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 150-128 AL, favorites -$1

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-67-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 144-126-11
______________________________________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/13/17
Ariz 28-26-19……41-22–12……..69-48
Atl 27-34-10……25-39-8………..52-73
Cubs 32-31-8…….36-24-14………..68-55
Reds 23-42-9……..29-36–7……….52-78
Colo 38-29-7…….37-29-5………..75-58
LA 33-24-13…….41-25-9……….74-49
Miami 31-34-9…….35-26-10………66-60
Milw 35-27-10…….37-28-9……….71-55
Mets 31-36-4……..30-37-7……….61-73
Philly 19-43-16……27-32-8………..46-75
Pitt 31-36-7…….28-31-13………..60-67
St. Louis 30-32-9……38-25-10………..68-57
SD 21-43-8……..36-29–9…………57-72
SF 16-49-9……..28-32-12……….44-80
Wash 42-23-7……33-30-10………….75-53

Orioles 28-38-5……..30-37-7………58-75
Boston 30-32-10………34-37-2…….64-69
White Sox 23-38-10………29-42–4…….52-80
Cleveland 44-23-8……..37-24-8……….81-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….28-33-10……..55-71
Astros 36-28-11……..43-24-5………79-52
KC 26-33-10……..30-31-13…….56-64
Angels 26-39-8………30-28-13……..56-67
Twins 38-23-12………35-32-8……..72-54
NYY 34-38-7……….36-27-4…..…70-65
A’s 26-37-7……..32-32-12……..58-69
Seattle 28-36-9……..39-25-10………67-61
TB 36-29-11……..38-22-9……..74-51
Texas 34-26-11……..38-27-8……..72-53
Toronto 29-37-5……..30-33-11……..59-70

%age of times teams score in first inning
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/13/17
Ariz 22-71……..26-73………..48
Atl 17-70……….19-75………36
Cubs 20-71……..26-74………..46
Reds 30-75……..26-72……….56
Colo 20-74……..25-71..……..45
LA 21-71……..26-74..…….47
Miami 31-74……..26-71………..57
Milw 24-72……28-75…..……52
Mets 32-71……..25-74……….57
Philly 17-78……..22-68……….39
Pitt 22-74……..22-73……….44
StL 15-72……..23-72………..38
SD 23-72……….24-73……….47
SF 17-75……….21-73……….38
Wash 26-72……..29-73……….55

Orioles 17-72……..24-75……….41
Boston 20-72……..18-73……….38
White Sox 22-71……20-75……….42
Clev 22-76……..25-71………47
Detroit 18-74…….26-71………44
Astros 21-76……..28-70………49
KC 18-70……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..21-72……….48
Twins 17-71……..19-73……….36
NYY 19-78……..18-67……….37
A’s 18-70……..27-76………45
Seattle 21-73…….25-76……….46
TB 22-74……..24-73………46
Texas 28-72……..30-73………58
Toronto 24-72……..21-77………45

 

[Pesos]

MLB Trend Report

1:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. DETROIT
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chi White Sox's last 16 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:35 PM
OAKLAND vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

1:45 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:40 PM
COLORADO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games on the road
Colorado is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami

7:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CLEVELAND
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

8:05 PM
NY METS vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
NY Mets are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
Chi Cubs are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games at home

8:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Texas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing Seattle

8:10 PM
TORONTO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Toronto

10:07 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Houston
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games

 

[Pesos]

CHI WHITE SOX @ DETROIT
Chi White Sox is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

OAKLAND @ BOSTON
Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland

CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Cincinnati is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Colorado is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Colorado

BALTIMORE @ NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Atlanta's last 16 games when playing on the road against Washington
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 16 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami

KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

SEATTLE @ TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing Seattle

NY METS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

TORONTO @ MINNESOTA
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto

HOUSTON @ LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
LA Angels is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Angels is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston

 

[Pesos]

MLB Long Sheet

CINCINNATI (63 - 83) at ST LOUIS (76 - 69) - 1:45 PM
AMIR GARRETT (L) vs. LUKE WEAVER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 32-31 (+9.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 55-57 (+7.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 79-75 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 27-32 (-11.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 9-6 (+5.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.5 Units)

AMIR GARRETT vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GARRETT is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

LUKE WEAVER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.
_________________________________________________________________


COLORADO (80 - 66) at ARIZONA (84 - 62) - 3:40 PM
CHAD BETTIS (R) vs. ZACK GODLEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 84-62 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 47-27 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 28-14 (+10.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ARIZONA is 13-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
ARIZONA is 39-27 (+11.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 63-47 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 51-32 (+16.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 34-29 (+7.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GODLEY is 23-14 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GODLEY is 9-3 (+7.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 80-66 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 19-12 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
COLORADO is 25-24 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-35 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
COLORADO is 6-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games in September games this season.
COLORADO is 8-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday this season.
COLORADO is 37-26 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
COLORADO is 33-19 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
COLORADO is 36-29 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
COLORADO is 33-26 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
COLORADO is 20-19 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BETTIS is 24-14 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BETTIS is 13-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BETTIS is 19-10 (+10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 10-8 (+0.6 Units) against COLORADO this season
11 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.8 Units)

CHAD BETTIS vs. ARIZONA since 1997
BETTIS is 1-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.818.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

ZACK GODLEY vs. COLORADO since 1997
GODLEY is 2-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.077.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.3 units)
_________________________________________________________________


ATLANTA (66 - 78) at WASHINGTON (88 - 57) - 7:05 PM
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 62-30 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 66-78 (+2.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 37-32 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 24-30 (+19.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 33-39 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 23-15 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 63-70 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 49-52 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 55-59 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 31-34 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 13-5 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-16 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 36-42 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 24-29 (-14.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 8-7 (+7.8 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.5 Units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP of 1.643.
His team's record is 3-2 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

TANNER ROARK vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ROARK is 5-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 1.144.
His team's record is 8-3 (+4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-7. (-3.7 units)
_________________________________________________________________


MIAMI (68 - 77) at PHILADELPHIA (56 - 89) - 7:05 PM
JOSE URENA (R) vs. JAKE THOMPSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 26-37 (-12.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
MIAMI is 8-21 (-11.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
MIAMI is 2-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
MIAMI is 28-40 (-13.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-33 (+8.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
URENA is 16-8 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
URENA is 10-2 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
URENA is 6-1 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
URENA is 14-6 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
URENA is 11-4 (+7.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 56-89 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-61 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-70 (-26.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 10-8 (+4.8 Units) against MIAMI this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JOSE URENA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
URENA is 1-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.459.
His team's record is 2-3 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

JAKE THOMPSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
THOMPSON is 0-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.273.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
_________________________________________________________________


NY METS (63 - 82) at CHICAGO CUBS (79 - 66) - 8:05 PM
SETH LUGO (R) vs. JEN-HO TSENG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 63-82 (-28.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 0-16 (-16.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 50-60 (-18.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 13-42 (-29.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY METS are 6-22 (-15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY METS are 110-89 (+35.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
NY METS are 432-449 (+32.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997.
LUGO is 15-7 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LUGO is 11-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 79-66 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 42-32 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 58-54 (-25.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-37 (-15.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 827-774 (-158.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 3-2 (+0.8 Units) against NY METS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

SETH LUGO vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

JEN-HO TSENG vs. NY METS since 1997
No recent starts.
_________________________________________________________________


CHI WHITE SOX (58 - 87) at DETROIT (60 - 85) - 1:10 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. CHAD BELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 406-413 (+35.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
DETROIT is 60-85 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 40-65 (-22.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 25-40 (-17.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 8-7 (+2.7 Units) against DETROIT this season
10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.8 Units)

JAMES SHIELDS vs. DETROIT since 1997
SHIELDS is 8-8 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.365.
His team's record is 13-11 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-13. (-3.7 units)

CHAD BELL vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.
_________________________________________________________________


OAKLAND (64 - 81) at BOSTON (82 - 63) - 1:35 PM
DANIEL GOSSETT (R) vs. DREW POMERANZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 201-268 (-52.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 22-48 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 9-26 (-13.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
OAKLAND is 7-24 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 30-26 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BOSTON is 60-57 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 370-292 (-46.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 148-134 (-46.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
BOSTON is 13-21 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
POMERANZ is 10-24 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
POMERANZ is 18-31 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-2 (+3.6 Units) against BOSTON this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)

DANIEL GOSSETT vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

DREW POMERANZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
POMERANZ is 0-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.750.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)
_________________________________________________________________


BALTIMORE (72 - 74) at NY YANKEES (79 - 66) - 7:05 PM
WADE MILEY (L) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 27-44 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 16-32 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 44-23 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TANAKA is 19-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 160-148 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 33-28 (+7.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 88-72 (+15.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 9-6 (+3.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
14 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+12.9 Units)

WADE MILEY vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MILEY is 0-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.590.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-6. (-3.7 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
TANAKA is 1-2 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.117.
His team's record is 1-6 (-7.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-5. (-3.5 units)
_________________________________________________________________


KANSAS CITY (72 - 73) at CLEVELAND (90 - 56) - 7:10 PM
JAKE JUNIS (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 41-15 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CLEVELAND is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
CLEVELAND is 24-7 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 31-8 (+19.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
KANSAS CITY is 72-73 (+4.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 77-65 (+14.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 56-53 (+6.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 37-32 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
JUNIS is 8-2 (+6.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 9-6 (-0.6 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

JAKE JUNIS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

JOSH TOMLIN vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
TOMLIN is 9-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.060.
His team's record is 12-8 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-11. (-4.7 units)
_________________________________________________________________


SEATTLE (73 - 73) at TEXAS (72 - 73) - 8:05 PM
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 162-204 (-58.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997.
TEXAS is 72-73 (+2.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 45-32 (+13.9 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 92-64 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 28-18 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 75-60 (+18.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 124-98 (+29.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 124-107 (+17.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 37-35 (+7.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
SEATTLE is 20-9 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 38-24 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 10-5 (+5.8 Units) against TEXAS this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 19-23 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.266.
His team's record is 23-29 (-14.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 28-20. (+5.3 units)

ANDREW CASHNER vs. SEATTLE since 1997
CASHNER is 1-3 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 2-4 (-1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)
_________________________________________________________________


TORONTO (68 - 78) at MINNESOTA (76 - 69) - 8:10 PM
BRETT ANDERSON (L) vs. JOSE BERRIOS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 68-78 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 30-37 (-11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TORONTO is 39-53 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 25-41 (-17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ANDERSON is 57-69 (-26.1 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ANDERSON is 15-20 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 76-69 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 52-38 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 67-88 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 95-125 (-50.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 28-38 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 (+2.1 Units) against TORONTO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

BRETT ANDERSON vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
ANDERSON is 3-3 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.169.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)

JOSE BERRIOS vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.
_________________________________________________________________


HOUSTON (87 - 58) at LA ANGELS (74 - 71) - 10:05 PM
BRAD PEACOCK (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 30-36 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 10-21 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 74-71 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 32-21 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
LA ANGELS are 225-174 (+42.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 56-51 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA ANGELS are 53-48 (+10.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 27-27 (+8.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 24-13 (+10.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 46-27 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 69-36 (+17.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 16-7 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 9-6 (+1.1 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.2 Units)

BRAD PEACOCK vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
PEACOCK is 3-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.266.
His team's record is 3-4 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-6. (-5.9 units)

RICKY NOLASCO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
NOLASCO is 7-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.98 and a WHIP of 1.134.
His team's record is 8-3 (+5.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.3 units)

 

[Pesos]

MLB Umpire Assignment - Day Games

961 Chicago White Sox +113 Over 10 -105
962 Detroit Tigers -123 Under 10 -115
Tripp Gibson III 2017: 13-12, 13-12 o/u (2016: 17-11, 14-12 o/u)

963 Oakland Athletics +188 Over 10 -110
964 Boston Red Sox -205 Under 10 -110
Andy Fletcher 2017: 12-11, 12-9 o/u (2016: 17-14, 15-15 o/u)
Over is 4-1 in Fletchers last 5 games behind home plate.
Over is 3-1-1 in Fletchers last 5 Red Sox games behind home plate.
Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Fletcher behind home plate.
Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Fletcher behind home plate.

951 Cincinnati Reds +200 Over 9 -120
952 St. Louis Cardinals -220 Under 9 +100
Adrian Johnson 2017: 18-10, 14-13 o/u (2016: 16-12, 18-7 o/u)
Home team is 7-3 in Johnsons last 10 games behind home plate.
Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 games with Johnson behind home plate.
Under is 8-2 in Johnsons last 10 Cardinals games behind home plate.

953 Colorado Rockies +165 Over 9½ -120
954 Arizona Diamondbacks -175 Under 9½ +100
Phil Cuzzi 2017: 16-10, 12-14 o/u (2016: 15-8, 10-13 o/u)
Home team is 21-10 in Cuzzis last 31 games behind home plate.
Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Cuzzi behind home plate.
Under is 6-1 in Cuzzis last 7 Diamondbacks games behind home plate.
Under is 18-7-1 in Cuzzis last 26 Rockies games behind home plate.

 

[Pesos]

MLB Top Trends

ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON
Play OVER ATLANTA on the total in Road games when playing against a team with a winning record. The record is 22 Overs and 6 Unders this season (+15.2 units)

NY METS @ CHICAGO CUBS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in All games in night games. The record is 61 Overs and 29 Unders this season (+29.15 units)

NY METS @ CHICAGO CUBS
Play OVER NY METS on the total in Road games in night games. The record is 32 Overs and 13 Unders this season (+17.8 units)

SEATTLE @ TEXAS
Play OVER SEATTLE on the total in All games when playing on Tuesday. The record is 49 Overs and 20 Unders for the last three seasons (+28.8 units)

SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA
Play OVER MINNESOTA on the total in Home games after a loss. The record is 55 Overs and 29 Unders for the last two seasons (+24.5 units)

SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA
Play OVER MINNESOTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record. The record is 78 Overs and 45 Unders for the last two seasons (+28.8 units)

CINCINNATI @ ST LOUIS
Play OVER CINCINNATI on the total in All games as a road underdog of +175 to +250. The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders this season (+8.9 units)

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Play OVER ARIZONA on the total in Home games when playing on Tuesday. The record is 18 Overs and 4 Unders for the last two seasons (+14.05 units)

COLORADO @ ARIZONA
Play OVER ARIZONA on the total in Home games when playing on Tuesday. The record is 26 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+17.5 units)

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

NY METS at CHICAGO CUBS
Play Against - Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games, in September games 79-59 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.2% | 41.1 units ) 7-10 this year. ( 41.2% | -1.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

TORONTO at MINNESOTA
TORONTO is 20-6 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in Road games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: TORONTO (4.8 ) , OPPONENT (3.3)

 

[Pesos]

Diamond Trends - Thursday

TOP SU TREND:
The Rangers are 0-9 since Jun 16, 2013 in the last game of a series as a favorite when they are off two losses in which they never led.

TOP OU TREND:
The Phillies are 11-0-2 OU (3.65 ppg) since Sep 09, 2015 as a dog coming off a home game in which they won by 5+ runs.

TOP STARTER TREND:
The Mariners are 13-0 RUN LINE ON since Jun 11, 2008 when Felix Hernandez starts as a road dog when they won in each of his last two starts.

TOP CHOICE TREND:
The Yankees are 12-0 since Apr 27, 2014 when Masahiro Tanaka starts at home after they used 5+ pitchers yesterday.

 

[Pesos]

MLB Betting Picks & Tips

Chicago at Detroit (-125); Total: 10
The hottest ticket in baseball is a seat for today’s game at Comerica Park, which can be found on StubHub for the impressive price of $2. The White Sox and Tigers are just looking for this season to end and end as quickly as possible. James Shields takes the mound for the White Sox against Chad Bell for the Tigers. The Tigers had something to play for against the Indians early in the week, but they were unable to win any of the three games and managed just three runs in the three-game set. They also played a lot of bad defense.

So, we head into this Motown Matinee looking to play anyone and anything but the Tigers. Brad Ausmus will be unemployed soon and the rebuild coming in Detroit will be painstaking. There’s a difference between being bad and not caring. The White Sox are bad, but still seem to care for first-year skipper Rick Renteria. The Tigers are bad and don’t seem to care.

Purely from a motivational/situational angle, my focus is on the White Sox. Chicago can get out of the AL Central basement in this series, which would be considered a win for them. James Shields, amazingly, still gets guaranteed money next season, but he’d still like to string together a couple good starts to feel better about himself going into the winter months.

I understand why Detroit is favored here with home field and with how awful Shields has been for the last two seasons, but I’d still take the White Sox here.

Miami (-125) at Philadelphia; Total: 9.5
Major regression candidate Jose Urena takes the mound for the Marlins as they wrap up their series with the Phillies. It will be young right-hander Jake Thompson for the hosts. Urena owns a 3.61 ERA with a 4.98 FIP and a 5.23 xFIP. He’s worked 147 innings with a well below average strikeout rate, but he’s gotten fortunate on batted balls and in leverage spots with a .244 BABIP against and a 78.9 percent LOB%. The weird thing is that Urena has actually gotten even better at staving off regression. Since July 31, he has an 85.5 percent LOB%, despite a lower strikeout rate than what he has for the full season. Maybe he truly is just inducing a ton of weak contact. After all, he has allowed just 38 hits in his last 46.2 innings.

Urena’s average exit velocity against is just 85.2 mph. Of his 456 batted balls, only 29.8 percent of them have gone out at 95+ mph. That puts him in the top third of pitchers in terms of exit velocity against. But, then, Urena is also 11th in barreled balls, which means balls that have a batting average probability of .500 or higher and a slugging percentage probability of 1.500 or higher. Even still, Urena has done a great job of limiting hard contact. As I’ve mentioned in the past, contact quality is something that I think could be the next frontier of handicapping and something that I will study a lot over the winter to see if I can find correlations and actionable intelligence.

Jake Thompson has been pretty bad this season across Triple-A and the big leagues. He posted a 5.25/4.40/4.59 in 22 Triple-A starts and has a 5.23/6.38/5.75 in 31 MLB innings. There isn’t much to like in this profile at all, with subpar command and control. I’d be thinking about an over here. At this point, individual players are looking to pad their individual statistics on some of these bad teams. Between Urena’s signs of regression and Thompson’s ugly profile, runs could be in the works in Philly.

Kansas City at Cleveland (-210); Total: 9
I have a sneaking suspicion that the Indians’ streak ends tonight. Their weakest starter, Josh Tomlin, is on the mound. The AL streak is in the bag. I kind of wonder what sort of lineup we see from the Indians. They want to find a way to clinch the division at home and control their own destiny if they can push this thing out to 25, but it wouldn’t shock me to see some big names take a seat after setting the record.

I like the stuff profile for Jake Junis. It’s going to be a rainy, grey, ugly day in Cleveland, so the crowd isn’t going to be as invested or energized. It may just feel like a run-of-the-mill weeknight game in September. Junis has pitched well since coming back from the minors with a 3.26 ERA, a 2.71 FIP, and a 3.74 xFIP in 38.2 innings of work. He has a 37/3 K/BB ratio in those six starts.

I think 21 felt like *the* streak, since the others are from 80+ years ago. I’d look to gamble on the Royals today. I think they win this game more often than the line would indicate.

It’s a small card today with only a few games that I’m interested in. That will probably be the case here in the second half of September with inflated lines and questionable motivations. Keep it simple the rest of the way.

 

[Pesos]

NFL

Trend Report

HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:25 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________________________________________________________

HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
__________________________________________________________________

HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games ,
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

[Pesos]

NFL Week 2 lines that make you go hmmm...

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 38.5)

NFL week two kicks off a Thursday night game which pits two teams that clearly under achieved in their respective openers.

Houston visits Cincinnati and questions outweigh answers for each team involved in this contest. The Texans will be entering practice week with the full understanding that QB Deshaun Watson will be starting. Though he didn’t embarrass himself in his debut, it will take more than the limited time he had under center to truly master the position at the professional level.

There’s always a tendency when a back-up player enters the action and performs well to have a letdown of sorts the next time out. That’s because the energy and spontaneity is short lived and the pack catches up to the leader - that will likely be the case with Watson.

In the case of the Bengals, they are counting on QB Andy Dalton‘s return to form after his disastrous opener. A little ying-yang for both quarterbacks.

This line opened a very questionable -3 on the home favorites and was quickly unmasked as a horrible starting point. As of Tuesday, the general consensus was already tipping it to -5. I say, this is still too low and think the line will be at -6 to -6.5 by kickoff.

What appears to be more of a must-win game for the Bengals is translating into heavy wood on Cincinnati early in the week, and most likely all the way through Sunday. If there’s going to be any Houston action, you can bet on it coming very late when underdog backers see the line has stalled.

 

[Pesos]

Texans (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Watson gets his first NFL start after playing 2nd half LW; he led Houston’s only TD drive. Texan QB’s were sacked 10 times LW and had 94 penalty yards in a cruddy opener. Under O’Brien, Texans are 12-5-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 7-11-1 as a road underdog. Bengals lost 20-0 at home to Ravens LW, turning ball over five times on 11 drives; they had ball in red zone three times, came up empty. Houston won seven of last nine series games, winning 10-6/12-10 over Bengals last two years. Texans won last three visits here, by 11-1-4 points. Houston lost last two road openers 24-17/27-0; under is 4-0 in their last six AO’s. Last four years, Bengals are 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss.

 

[Pesos]

Thursday NFL Best Bet

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

HeritageSports.eu Odds: Houston (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati (-6.5); Total set at 38

The first “official” TNF game of the year pits two teams that looked absolutely awful in Week 1 against one another with the Houston Texans in Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. It's definitely not how the league wanted to showcase their first TNF game on the network this year, but their really is nowhere to go but up for both organizations after their showing in Week 1.

Cincinnati was shutout 20-0 by Baltimore a week ago as five turnovers by QB Andy Dalton (4 INT's and 1 fumble) sealed the Bengals fate rather early. Many out there were expecting Dalton to have a great year now that all his weapons are healthy, but his start couldn't have been any worse. Bettors should expect a highly improved Dalton in this game as he looks to redeem himself, but how much better he'll be is still the question.

Houston's defense is still quite good on paper – although they didn't look it at times a week ago – and the Texans have a history of frustrating Dalton and the Bengals. Houston is 5-1 SU in six games during the Dalton era in Cincinnati and the Bengals have only scored 20+ points in one of those games.

On the flip side, Houston didn't look much better in a 29-7 loss to Jacksonville last week as brutal play by their own starting QB (Tom Savage) prompted HC Bill O'Brien to quickly abandon everything he stated all preseason and give rookie QB Deshaun Watson his chance.

Watson definitely brought a spark to the Texans offense and going forward I believe he is the right choice under center for Houston this year. There will likely be some “growing pains” at times with Watson this season, and this game could very well be one of them as it's his first career NFL road game. But this was a guy that was known to make plenty of big plays in college and once he gets a bit of experience under his belt, I'm sure those big plays by Watson will start to show up in the NFL as well.

Regarding this point spread, fading a rookie NFL QB in his first road game is a solid angle to take, but quite frankly I don't know how you can trust Dalton and the Bengals to win by more than a TD here. Cincinnati's history against the Texans is another red flag for laying that chalk, but it's not like there can be a whole lot of trust in grabbing the points with the Texans either.

Which leads me to the total and at 38, it's likely going to be one of the lowest TNF totals we see all year. A combined 7 points by these two teams in Week 1 has to make many like the low side of this total, especially when the Bengals are on a 1-8 O/U run in their last nine games overall. Week 1 saw the majority of NFL games cash 'under' tickets as well, and bettors that got burned by those results may flip in fear of not wanting to get burned again. However, with nowhere to go but 'up' for both offenses, maybe going a little contrarian and expecting a relatively high-scoring game in this one.

For one, Watson getting the nod gives the Texans that offensive spark right from the get-go. He and the rest of that unit are going to want to make a “splash” after their performance last week, and I believe the rookie won't disappoint. Yet, he's still a rookie on the road and mistakes are likely to happen. What that means is Cincy is likely to force a turnover or two and hopefully give their own QB a short field to work with.

Andy Dalton was all about the turnovers in Week 1 and while he should be much better in that regard, that's not to say he won't cough it up a couple of times again. Yet, the spark Houston got and will get with Watson starting, Cincinnati could get as well with WR John Ross expected to make his debut.

Ross is an absolute speedster who broke the 40-yard-dash time at the NFL combine this spring and he's there to take the top off opposing defenses. Even just the threat of his speed should give Dalton more room to work underneath to guys like A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, meaning that run of sub-20 point performances against Houston is likely in jeopardy.

These two teams may have a history of playing 'unders,' but with the Texans on a 4-1 O/U run on TNF and the Bengals being 20-7 O/U after scoring less than 15 points in their last outing, we should see both teams threaten the 20-point barrier on a total lined like this. Add in a 5-2 O/U run for the Bengals after suffering a double-digit defeat at home, and the headlines after this game could very well be how well both offenses bounced back after disastrous Week 1 efforts.

HeritageSports.eu Best Bet: Over (38)

 

[Pesos]

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Texans at Bengals

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38)

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were among a glut of teams who put forth feeble offensive performances in their respective season openers. Coming off lopsided losses - each at home - to division opponents, the Bengals and Texans have a short week to solve their offensive woes when they square off in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

Awful quarterback performances low-lighted the Week 1 efforts for each team and there could be a change under center for Houston, which benched starter Tom Savage at halftime in favor of rookie first-round pick Deshaun Watson. "We’re going to do what’s best for the team," said Texans coach Bill O'Brien of the potential quarterback controversy after dealing with the failed Brock Osweiler fiasco last year. "We always try to do what’s best for the team, and try to go from there.” Cincinnati was shut out (20-0 by Baltimore) at home for the first time since 2001 as quarterback Andy Dalton matched a career worst with four interceptions and committed five turnovers. “I have to put this one behind us,” acknowledged Dalton. “I know the type of player that I am and I can be. I can’t let this affect the next one.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY:
The Bengals opened as three-point home favorites but by Thursday morning that number was all of the way up to -6.5. The total hit the betting boards at 38 and remains on that opening number.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+0.5) - Bengals (0) + home field (-3) = Bengals -2.5

INJURY REPORT:

Texans
DE J. Watt (Probable, Finger), QB D. Watson (Probable, Ankle), DE J. Clowney (Probable, Foot), S A. Hal (Probable, Hip), C N. Martin (Probable, Ankle), RB A. Blue (Questionable, Ankle), CB K. Johnson (Question, Knee), LB B. McKinney (Questionable, Knee), G J. Allen (Doubful, Ankle), TE R. Griffin (Out, Concussion), LB B. Cushing (Out, Concussion), WR B. Ellington (Out, Concussion), TE S. Anderson (Out, Concussion), WR W. Fuller (Out, Collarbone), T D. Brown (Out, Holdout), TE C. Fiedorowicz (Out, Concussion), T D. Newton (I-R, Knee), WR D. Gray (I-R, Knee).

Bengals
WR J. Ross (Probable, Knee), TE C. Uzomah (Probable, Leg), S S. Williams (Probable, Elbow), CB D. Kirkpatrick (Probable, Foot), CB J. Shaw (Probable, Ankle), DE M. Johnson (Doubtful, Concussion), G T. Hopkins (Out, Knee), LB V. Burfict (Out, Suspension), QB J. Driskel (Out, Thumb), HB T. Carson (I-R, Ankle), TE M. Schreck (I-R, Knee), HB C. Peerman (I-R, Shoulder), WR J. Kumerow (I-R, Leg).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U):
Reports out of Houston indicate that Watson, who guided Clemson to the national championship in January, will be under center for Thursday's matchup if he is not hindered by an ankle injury during Tuesday's practice. Watson was 12 of 23 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he and Savage absorbed a combined 10 sacks behind a line that is still missing left tackle Duane Brown (contract holdout) and will be without guard Jeff Allen. Perhaps an even bigger issue facing the Texans is a lengthy injury list that features five players in the NFL's concussion protocol, including the team's top three tight ends. Despite the return of start defensive end J.J. Watt, limited to three games last season due to back surgery, Houston allowed 155 yards rushing in the 29-7 loss to Jacksonville.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U):
Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton, who tossed three of his interceptions in the first half, was the sturdy play of Cincinnati's defense, which surrendered a total of 268 yards (157 rushing) to the Ravens. Dalton, who is already halfway to last season's interception total of eight, compiled a wretched 28.4 passer rating after completing 16 of 31 for 170 yards, with star wideout A.J. Green leading the way with five catches for 74 yards. The Bengals need to sort out their running game -- Giovani Bernard, less than 10 months removed from knee surgery, rushed for 40 yards on seven carries but highly touted rookie Joe Mixon managed only nine yards on eight rushes. Rookie wideout John Ross, the ninth overall pick who was clocked in 4.22 in the 40 at the NFL combine, is expected to make his NFL debut.

TRENDS:
* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-1 in Texans last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 9-2 in Bengals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

CONSENSUS:
The public is siding with the road underdog Texans at a rate of 56 percent and the Under is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.

 

[Pesos]

TNF - Texans at Bengals
September 14, 2017

Houston at Cincinnati (-6.5, 37.5), 8:30 pm ET, NFLN

One of these teams will leave the field 0-2, having dropped a second straight contest against a conference foe. Considering each entered the season with realistic playoff aspirations, the loser will be digging themselves a major hole since both teams are on the road next week as heavy underdogs against Super Bowl contenders.

The Bengals are still looking for their first points of the season after a wasteful effort against the Ravens. Andy Dalton drove the offense into the red zone on multiple occasions only to turn the ball over, throwing an awful interception in the end zone while also fumbling after being sacked once he missed an open receiver who probably would've scored. It was a forgettable effort for Dalton (16-for-31, 170 yards, 4 INTs), but he at least got to finish the game.

Texans starter Tom Savage lasted one half after the Jaguars built a 19-0 lead through the first two quarters in Houston on Sunday. He lasted just 31 plays, completing 7 of 13 passes for 62 yards before being benched in favor of rookie Desean Watson.

Savage's agent, Neil Schwartz, told NBC Sports he didn't understand the move and pointed out that 12 of his client's 13 passes hit receivers in the hands. Because Jaelen Strong was suspended and Will Fuller is out with a broken collarbone, the Texans have continuity issues at receiver behind No. 1 targer DeAndre Hopkins, though they'll get Strong back from suspension and are expected to have Braxton Miller closer to 100 percent after an ankle sprain.

Watson will get his first NFL start on his 22nd birthday, getting his feet wet in the second half of the loss to Jacksonville by throwing a TD pass to Hopkins and also tossing his first pro interception. He's the ninth starting quarterback of head coach Bill O'Brien's tenure, the most any team has employed in that span (since 2014). His mobility figures to give the Texans a fighting chance given their aforementioned issues at receiver and an offensive line that got abused by the Jaguars' front seven and remains without top tackle Duane Brown, who is holding out for a pay raise he certainly deserves given the state of affairs up front.

Although Dalton's five turnovers were the major culprit in Cincinnati's Week 1 woes, his offensive line did him no favors either. The Bengals are also utilizing a running back by committee approach that didn't allow anyone to get comfortable. Jeremy Hill started, rookie Joe Mixon got the most carries and the versatile Giovani Bernard also got time, so we'll see how Lewis juggles his backs in this one. Dalton is just 1-5 against the Texans in his career and probably isn't excited at the prospect of having to bounce back from one of his worst games ever by facing a J.J. Watt-led defense.

The Texans lost the first three meetings between these franchises but have won seven of eight over the past decade, including three in Cincinnati. Two of those victories came in the wild card round of the playoffs, though both of those wins came under O'Brien's predecessor, Gary Kubiak. O'Brien himself is 2-1 with Houston against Marvin Lewis' Bengals and has one more playoff win than his counterpart, who is in his 15th season at the helm but has come up empty in seven postseason games.

The Texans have covered only one of their last six games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. They're 7-2 ATS against Cincinnati, which has covered four of its last six after a brutal run to start last season. The UNDER has prevailed in five consecutive Bengals games and is 6-3 in Houston's last nine.

Houston Texans
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC South: 9/4 to 7/2
Odds to win AFC: 30/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 100/1

Cincinnati Bengals
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win AFC North: 7/2 to 7/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Titans (6/5) and Jaguars (2/1) have climbed over the Texans and Colts as the favorites in the AFC South following Week 1, while Cincinnati's lopsided loss to Baltimore currently has them ahead of only Cleveland (60/1) in the latest WestgateLV odds update for the AFC North. Pittsburgh (4/9) is now a heavier favorite than it was to open the season.

Both teams are now availabale at 50-to-1 to win the AFC and have had 100-to-1 odds placed on them if you like either to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. Since they put up two of the ugliest performaces in Week 1. it's no surprise that oddsmakers quickly turned on them.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bengals opened the week as a 3.5-point favorite and have seen the number top out at 6.5 as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 38.5 and hasn't moved much, although it's most widely available at 37.5 and could close as the lowest total on the young season, surpassing the Texans-Jaguars (38) number from Week 1.

Cincinnati opened as a -180 money line favorite but is now near 3-to-1 (-300) as kickoff approaches.

INJURY CONCERNS

Houston announced that all three of its tight ends are in concussion protocol, with starter C.J. Fiedorowicz landing on IR after his second in less than a month's time. Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson won't play either, joining RB Alfred Blue and receivers Fuller and Bruce Ellington on the sidelines. Guard Jeff Allen is out for the Texans too, so with Brown still holding out, Watson will have to think on his feet in his first career road game.

Linebacker Brian Cushing is concussed too but is beginning a 10-game suspension for using PEDs. It's his second career suspension for performance enhancers and leaves Houston without one of its best tacklers.

Cincinnati is without its best linebacker, Vontaze Burfict, who is serving the second of a three-game suspension after an illegal hit in the preseason. Adam Jones will return from his suspension for getting into trouble off the field, while safety Shawn Williams is expected to debut after missing the opener due to an elbow injury. With CB Dre Kirkpatrick also set to play through a foot issue, the Bengals will have their secondary intact but will be without defensive end Michael Johnson due to a concussion.

Top draft pick John Ross, Cincinnati's fastest player, could debut after missing Week 1 with a knee issue, while tight end C.J. Uzomah (knee) is also likely to play. Guard Trey Hopkins is out.

RECENT MEETINGS (Houston 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

12/24/16 Houston 20-12 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 41)
11/16/15 Houston 10-6 at Cincinnati (CIN -10, 47)
11/23/14 Cincinnati 22-13 at Houston (HOU -2, 44)
1/5/13 Houston 19-13 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -4, 43)
1/7/12 Houston 31-10 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 38)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride that the first score here is a field goal for even money.

Team to score first: (Texans +125, Bengals -145)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +110, Under -130)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)

TEXANS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Houston was last in this spot back in January, falling 34-16 as a 16.5-point underdog at New England in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. They were 2-6 SU/ATS as an away 'dog in 2016, falling 27-0 against the Patriots in last year's road opener.

BENGALS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Cincinnati hasn't been favored at home since Dec. 4, 2016, defeating Philadelphia 32-14. The Bengals were 3-2-1 straight up (3-3 ATS) in this role last season, and were only favored by more points than they are tonight twice, beating both the Dolphins and Browns by a combined score of 53-24, covering both times.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 3 has the Texans as a 12-point underdog at the Patriots. The Bengals are a 9-point underdog at Green Bay.

 

[Pesos]

CFB

Long Sheet

NEW MEXICO (1 - 1) at BOISE ST (1 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 133-97 ATS (+26.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 133-97 ATS (+26.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Pesos]

CFB Trend Report

8:00 PM
NEW MEXICO vs. BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
New Mexico is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boise State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Mexico
Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Mexico