At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
We had a good day on Wednesday with five recommended exactas, the payoffs coming back at $18.80, $12.80, $48.00, $50.00 and $31.80.
The feature on Wednesday was the John’s Call and my top pick Tricky Hit got a rail-skimming ride in the stretch to poke his head in front in deep stretch, but then I thought Holiday Star got his nose in front at the wire. That would have been a bad beat, separated by such a narrow margin after traveling 1 5/8 miles.
I said a few profanities under my breath, but it turned out my top pick Tricky Hit did indeed get his nostril in front at the wire, paying $9.10, and topping a recommended exacta payoff of $31.80 and trifecta for $240.00.
The $2 double with my top pick Silver Freak ($13.40) in the eight race paid a hefty $61.00.
Thursday’s stake is the $100,000 Birdstone and it drew just six runners and was carded as race four so it will be in the early Pick 5.
I am going try to beat 4-5 morning line favorite Micromanage with Don Dulce, who made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out in the Salvatore Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park. The winner Itsmyluckyday came back to run a good second in the Whitney Handicap (G1) last Saturday while the third place finisher Valid came back to win the Monmouth Cup (G2) in his next start.
The gelding has not done much this year going 0 for 7 with a couple of seconds after landing in the exacta in 7 of 11 starts last year. He does have a long-winded pedigree, by Maria's Mon out of a Sky Classic mare and is going to offer more value for the top spot than Micromanage.
Entries were draw for Saturday’s $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G2) at Saratoga which will be missing Wise Dan, who won the race the previous two years.
Silver Max was installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite and will try to take the field gate to wire. He takes on a couple of solid turf runners in Seek Again, who was third in the Manhattan (G1) last out, and Jack Milton, who was fifth in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) in his last start.
More on that race on Saturday.
Here is today’s second race (the opener is a steeplechase race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 2 Clm $32,000 (1:05 ET)
1 Star Grazing 3-5
4 Annie Walker 6-1
5 Devious Maddy 7-2
6 Desert Valentine 5-1
Analysis: Star Grazing came off an 8 1/2 month layoff with a good-looking maiden score last out going six furlongs in the mud and now stretches out to nine furlongs. She faced winners two back in the state bred Gimma and checked in fourth. In her maiden win the runner up Girlabouttown came back to graduate in her next start with an 85 Beyer. Pedigree wise this gal should have no problem handling the extra ground, she is by Sky Mesa out of an Unbridled mare. Hate to take such a short price but she catches a pretty weak group of state breds here.
Annie Walker set the early fractions and faded to finish fifth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden two back for a $40,000 tag against state breds by 13 1/2 lengths. The runner up Brandini came back to graduate in her next start on July 30 for a $40,000 tag. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and is a danger if she shakes loose early.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 OClm $80,000N3X (4:49 ET)
7 Tetradrachm 5-1
9 Reflecting 5-1
1 Ghurair 5-2
5 Lochte 6-1
Analysis: Tetradachm stalked the early pace and faded to finish a distant 12th last out in the Monmouth (G2) which is turning into a key race, producing four next out winners including three next out stakes winners. Two back at Belmont Park this guy ran a decent third, beaten three lengths and that was over ground labeled as good and we very well could see less than firm turf today. Three came out of that race to win next out and the runner up Summer Front ran second in both the Shoemaker (G1) and Eddie Read (G1). The Mott trainee won at this level over the turf here last summer and looking for him to bounce back and it looks as if we are going to get a fair price.
Reflecting stalked the early pace, came with a five wide bid and did not have enough punch left late in a fifth place finish in the Bowling Green 'Cap (G2) but was only beaten two lengths for the top spot. He outran his odds tow back in a third in the Belmont Gold Cup going two miles, missing the place spot in a photo at 26-1. This is just his fourth start of the year and the Shug runner appears to be heading in the right direction form wise.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 1,5,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 1,5,7,9 / 1,3,5,7,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R4: #1 Slim Shadey 8-1
R5: #8 Saratoga Valley 12-1
R6: #3 Coldwater Flat 15-1
R7: #5 No Trespassers 15-1
R8: #9 Casa Creek 10-1
R8: #3 Santa Elf 8-1
R10: #4 Honeychild 10-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
