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Thursday 8/24/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
The Walker Group at Ajax Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 58
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 KAZOOMIN 3/1
# 2 WINNERS REX 7/2
# 1 FLASHY LIFESTYLE 8/1
I've got to go with KAZOOMIN. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the affair. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. Ran a strong last race. WINNERS REX - The almost immediate return to the track points to a reliable effort this time around. FLASHY LIFESTYLE - Entrants trained by Reid in short races are usually formidable. Recent numbers for the rider - 19 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 58
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 KAZOOMIN 3/1
# 2 WINNERS REX 7/2
# 1 FLASHY LIFESTYLE 8/1
I've got to go with KAZOOMIN. Will probably be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the affair. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. Ran a strong last race. WINNERS REX - The almost immediate return to the track points to a reliable effort this time around. FLASHY LIFESTYLE - Entrants trained by Reid in short races are usually formidable. Recent numbers for the rider - 19 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
Del Mar - Race 5
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick Four
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 78 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 4:03P
(RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FRACAS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FRACAS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ARTISTIC DIVA: H orse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
2
FRACAS
7/2
5/2
6
ARTISTIC DIVA
5/2
10/1
Del Mar - Race 5
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick Four
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 78 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 4:03P
(RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FRACAS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FRACAS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ARTISTIC DIVA: H orse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
2
FRACAS
7/2
5/2
6
ARTISTIC DIVA
5/2
10/1
Valuline at Evangeline Downs
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Evangeline Downs, Race 6 (Thursday August 24, 2017)
e-SMOKING ROMANCE
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
EVD-6 5.5f DIRT Nine Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 3YUP $9,500
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL
1 e-SMOKING ROMANCE 9/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
5 JOBAY 9/2 17% 5/1
8 UNITAS 7/2 13% 7/1
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Evangeline Downs, Race 6 (Thursday August 24, 2017)
e-SMOKING ROMANCE
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
EVD-6 5.5f DIRT Nine Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 3YUP $9,500
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL
1 e-SMOKING ROMANCE 9/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
5 JOBAY 9/2 17% 5/1
8 UNITAS 7/2 13% 7/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:21pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating: 4
#2 ESKEN LADY (ML=7/2)
#4 MISS VISCONTI (ML=10/1)
ESKEN LADY - The rider and handler combination have a beneficial return on investment when they join forces. Not much pace in this race other than this horse. Ran last time out against a much better field at Gulfstream Park. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. MISS VISCONTI - The ROI when Alvarado and Estevez partner up is terrific. Jockey hops back up on board after getting to know the horse by riding last out. That's always a great angle. This mare is in nice form, having run a nice race on August 6th, finishing first.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AMALUNA (ML=9/5), #5 WINNING FOR SARAH (ML=5/2), #1 LOYAL HEART (ML=6/1),
AMALUNA - This horse doesn't have a winner's mental state. Very often finishes in the place or show spot. WINNING FOR SARAH - Would have to get much more than the morning line odds of 5/2 to play this horse. LOYAL HEART - This filly didn't race too well last time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 ESKEN LADY is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Bar
Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:21pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating: 4
#2 ESKEN LADY (ML=7/2)
#4 MISS VISCONTI (ML=10/1)
ESKEN LADY - The rider and handler combination have a beneficial return on investment when they join forces. Not much pace in this race other than this horse. Ran last time out against a much better field at Gulfstream Park. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. MISS VISCONTI - The ROI when Alvarado and Estevez partner up is terrific. Jockey hops back up on board after getting to know the horse by riding last out. That's always a great angle. This mare is in nice form, having run a nice race on August 6th, finishing first.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AMALUNA (ML=9/5), #5 WINNING FOR SARAH (ML=5/2), #1 LOYAL HEART (ML=6/1),
AMALUNA - This horse doesn't have a winner's mental state. Very often finishes in the place or show spot. WINNING FOR SARAH - Would have to get much more than the morning line odds of 5/2 to play this horse. LOYAL HEART - This filly didn't race too well last time out.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 ESKEN LADY is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
The Walker Group at Indiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 77
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 OUT OF THE OFFICE 3/1
# 6 OATER 7/5
# 4 VOLT 15/1
I have to consider OUT OF THE OFFICE here. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this colt a very good bet. Must be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last race. Is a strong contender based on figures garnered lately under today's conditions. OATER - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 70 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this group.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 77
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 OUT OF THE OFFICE 3/1
# 6 OATER 7/5
# 4 VOLT 15/1
I have to consider OUT OF THE OFFICE here. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this colt a very good bet. Must be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last race. Is a strong contender based on figures garnered lately under today's conditions. OATER - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 70 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this group.
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:49pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 96
Rating: 3
#2 NEBIKON (ML=4/1)
#4 BOWMAN'S BEAST (ML=5/1)
#6 HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS (ML=6/1)
NEBIKON - When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but could make the difference. This one could be a possible overlay right here at morning odds of 4/1. Finished fourth in last race at Penn National but was close at the finish. Closed well in last race. Longer distance should help. BOWMAN'S BEAST - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +29. HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS - When Hernandez and Graci team up on animals the return on investment has been wonderful at +56. This horse has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. This gelding's last rating is strong enough to win here, I'll invest in him right back in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ESCAPE TO THE MOON (ML=5/2), #5 GREY GATOR (ML=3/1), #3 CAPTURED (ML=5/1),
ESCAPE TO THE MOON - This gelding finished out of the top three on September 9th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. GREY GATOR - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play him on the win end. CAPTURED - This stretch-runner looks to have slight chance without a speed duel on the front end.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 NEBIKON to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
Bar
Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:49pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 96
Rating: 3
#2 NEBIKON (ML=4/1)
#4 BOWMAN'S BEAST (ML=5/1)
#6 HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS (ML=6/1)
NEBIKON - When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but could make the difference. This one could be a possible overlay right here at morning odds of 4/1. Finished fourth in last race at Penn National but was close at the finish. Closed well in last race. Longer distance should help. BOWMAN'S BEAST - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +29. HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS - When Hernandez and Graci team up on animals the return on investment has been wonderful at +56. This horse has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last 2 races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. This gelding's last rating is strong enough to win here, I'll invest in him right back in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ESCAPE TO THE MOON (ML=5/2), #5 GREY GATOR (ML=3/1), #3 CAPTURED (ML=5/1),
ESCAPE TO THE MOON - This gelding finished out of the top three on September 9th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. GREY GATOR - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't win. Difficult to play him on the win end. CAPTURED - This stretch-runner looks to have slight chance without a speed duel on the front end.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 NEBIKON to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
Presque Isle Downs - Race 2
$2WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 5:50P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CEREBRAL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GREATEST GAME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 5 0. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
CEREBRAL
7/2
7/2
2
GREATEST GAME
3/1
9/2
Presque Isle Downs - Race 2
$2WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 5:50P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CEREBRAL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GREATEST GAME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 5 0. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
CEREBRAL
7/2
7/2
2
GREATEST GAME
3/1
9/2
Rick Needham at Saratoga
RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST
The Riskaverse Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#10 CHUBBY STAR
#13 RUBILINDA
#6 BERNAVIDA
#8 DANCELAND
The turf race for 3-year-old fillies was first run in 2009 and named for Peter G. Schiff's outstanding mare, a two-time winner of the Flower Bowl Invitational in 2004-05. Riskaverse, who also won the 2002 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, retired with more than $2 million in earnings. Schiff, president of Northwood Ventures, LLC, named the daughter of Dynaformer after an economic concept based on the behavior of investors who, when faced with two investments with a similar expected return (but different risks), will prefer the one with the lower risk. Here in the 9th running of "The Verse," #10 CHUBBY STAR, a 9-2 shot, has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, hitting the board in three of those races, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. #13 RUBILINDA, the morning line favorite, broke her maiden in her "first asking," and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in her last start.
RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST
The Riskaverse Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#10 CHUBBY STAR
#13 RUBILINDA
#6 BERNAVIDA
#8 DANCELAND
The turf race for 3-year-old fillies was first run in 2009 and named for Peter G. Schiff's outstanding mare, a two-time winner of the Flower Bowl Invitational in 2004-05. Riskaverse, who also won the 2002 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, retired with more than $2 million in earnings. Schiff, president of Northwood Ventures, LLC, named the daughter of Dynaformer after an economic concept based on the behavior of investors who, when faced with two investments with a similar expected return (but different risks), will prefer the one with the lower risk. Here in the 9th running of "The Verse," #10 CHUBBY STAR, a 9-2 shot, has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, hitting the board in three of those races, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. #13 RUBILINDA, the morning line favorite, broke her maiden in her "first asking," and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in her last start.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
August 24, 2017
TOP SU TREND:
-- The Tigers are 0-11 since Sep 9, 2015 as a home dog coming off a game as a dog in which they allowed 12+ hits.
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TOP OU TREND:
-- The Indians are 13-0 OU (5.73 ppg) since Sep 7, 2011 as a home dog in the last game of a series vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
TOP STARTER TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 since Jul 8, 2014 when Carlos Martinez starts as a home favorite when they scored more than 6 runs in his last start.
TOP CHOICE TREND:
-- The Angels are 10-0 since Aug 5, 2015 at home off a game as a favorite in which Mike Trout was hitless in at least three at bats.
August 24, 2017
TOP SU TREND:
-- The Tigers are 0-11 since Sep 9, 2015 as a home dog coming off a game as a dog in which they allowed 12+ hits.
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TOP OU TREND:
-- The Indians are 13-0 OU (5.73 ppg) since Sep 7, 2011 as a home dog in the last game of a series vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
TOP STARTER TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 since Jul 8, 2014 when Carlos Martinez starts as a home favorite when they scored more than 6 runs in his last start.
TOP CHOICE TREND:
-- The Angels are 10-0 since Aug 5, 2015 at home off a game as a favorite in which Mike Trout was hitless in at least three at bats.
