Thursday 7/3/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 7/3 Analysis
By Brewster Smith
DRF HARNESS
MEET STATS: 184 - 719 / $1,154.00 BEST BETS: 15 - 60 / $59.90

Best Bet: PASSION R VIRGINIE (10th)

Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (2nd)



Race 1

(4) BAD AS BART showed signs of life last out. He can be ready to fire his best. (1) IDEAL FAME has put in three good tries; threat. (2) DVC GIVEMEATTITUDE closed well last time around for the placing.


Race 2

(3) BORN TO FIGHT gets class relief and did show good early zip last time out. (5) LUCKY COLBY has wheeled off five wins in a row; dangerous again. (2) BLOODSTOCKSHALLTAB fits well in here.

Race 3

(1) NUTMEGS DESIRE drops a notch in class. Moves to the fence and has the speed to boss these at her best. (3) EVIL EVA & (6) MATTYS BIG DAY could make some noise in the stretch drive.

Race 4

(1) LITTLE MISS HENRY gets serious post relief and this gal receives the services of Brennan. (7) PERFECTLY ROYAL is back at Yonkers where she got the job done three trips ago. (2) BOOTS PLACE should do much better from the two-hole.

Race 5

(7) RINGSIDE MUSCLE has fine speed and good to see Brennan back aboard. (1) ANTHONYSKYWALKER moves to the rail slot and that could help his cause. (4) JAILHOUSE FUNK closed strongly to grab the victory in his latest.

Race 6

(1) NF INDEPENDENCE draws well and has a good chance to make tonight a winning one. (4) ALL STAR DRAGON raced evenly in his recent trip. (5) DANAS SHARP SMART could land a share.

Race 7

(2) CAMPHOR HANOVER did not fire in her Philly finale but seems to have a fondness for Yonkers; worth a closer look. (5) MCEVER will need a better trip than in her last try. (6) LITTLE MERMAID N has hit the board in her last three starts; watch out.

Race 8

(4) BACK TO THE WEST showed some early pace last out at Pocono. Moves back to the Hilltop and Brennan signs on for the drive. (1) ROCKAHOLIC broke in his last start. Four-year-old can be in the mix from the rail. (3) FUZZYLEGSANDALL has put in three good tries; not out of this.

Race 9

(1) DVCFLYINGFRENCHMAN put in a mild bid in his last trip to the post. Gelding might be ready to get it done at his best. (2) GIDDY UP DELIGHT was second best in his most recent outing. (7) DASH N could have a say in the outcome.

Race 10

(1) PASSION R VIRGINIE was facing much better in her last try. Pacing mare is clearly better than most of these and will be tough to beat in this event. (5) FLYING MOCHA just got up for show honors last time around. (4) IDEAL GINNY may hang on for a piece.

Race 11

(2) KEEPERS DESTINY should find these to her liking and good to see Sears at the helm. (3) BO TOX HANOVER should fare quite well from the three slot. (8) SEA CRUISE HANOVER could be right in the mix with a good trip from the eight-hole.

Race 12

(1) SMOKE PAN MIRRORS ships in from Philly, moves to the rail and picks up Brennan; worth a shot. (4) QUAIL took the pocket route home to victory in her most recent try; big threat. (3) ITS DE LOVELY has the tactical speed to contend with this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 7/3 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: I WONDER WHY (7th)

Spot Play: CAVIART GRIFFIN (5th)



Race 1

(4) CASH IS BEST comes from McIntosh's barn, won her qualifier and draws inside. (10) JLS TOO HOT TAJ qualified sharply and has been praised upon all winter by her trainer McKinnon. (2) CALL ME RICHARD draws inside, won his qualifier last week and shows a lot of versatility.

Race 2

(8) HOLY MOLIE MAGGIE has been a consistent threat at this level for many weeks despite not winning. She's long overdue. (6) PROTEGE SEELSTER made a miscue in his latest, but was a game second two back in this class. He's classified right and comes from the Johnson barn. (1) JUSTALITTLEFASTER draws inside and closed extremely well in his latest. The rail is a good spot for him.

Race 3

(7) SWEETIE HEARTS was hard-used in the early stages of the mile last week. She draws outside in this short field and may offer a fair price. (1) QUADROPHENIA gets the rail, has won two straight and is capable of the class jump. (5) MARGIE has remained competitive in this division and gets Filion back in the bike.

Race 4

(2) SAUCY B might offer a fair price despite her back-to-back scores at Georgian; makes her way onto this circuit. (4) EMBRY SEELSTER enters the Tyrrell barn and has been a main threat at his level for many weeks. (6) VAL DI NOTO raced well in her latest, draws in the middle of the gate and has some upside to her.

Race 5

(8) CAVIART GRIFFIN was my top play last week but made a miscue. I'll back him again with a better post at the same class. He has the speed and raced terrific two back. (4) FINAL FANTASY comes from the Blais barn and drops into this maiden class. (3) MAGIC MADNESS gets a post two start, was timed in 1:57 4/5 last week and closed very well with a 28 4/5 final quarter.

Race 6

(3) EXHILATATED draws inside once again, has terrific gate speed and will offer a low price. (2) UNIQUE ROCK N ROLL drops out of the Town Pro Series, gets post two and comes from the McNair barn. (6) HARE TO ETERNITY raced very well in her latest to finish second at 22-1. A repeat effort makes her a top threat.

Race 7

(5) I WONDER WHY captured her first career win last week in impressive fashion and comes from top connections. (4) SOUTHWIND PARIS draws inside, comes from the Darling barn and was a game second in her latest qualifier. (3) MESMERIZE BLUECHIP won her qualifier with a terrific final quarter and comes from the Coleman barn.

Race 8

(6) DELIRIUM won last week impressively at the Grassroots level and should be able to handle this class. (5) MEA LILLEY MARK was a beaten favorite last week by less than a length. She draws well once again and remains a top threat in this field. (2) RIVETING has hit the board in each of her last two starts. She doesn't like to win, but is a good option for the triactor.

Race 9

(2) MUSCLE BABE has been the queen of this division so far this season and won at ease in her last two. (6) WHITE BECOMES HER put in a big effort in her latest at 18-1. She's hit the board in each of her five starts this season. (8) RIVETING ROSIE put her game face on last week with a third-place finish after starting off the year slowly.

Race 10

(3) DOCS HOSS has been a main threat at his level with two wins in his last three starts. (1) LITTLE QUICK draws the rail in this field and has an excellent closing kick. If he's well positioned, I like his chances. (5) WESTERN SENATOR raced much better in his last two. He's rounding into form and may offer a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Horse Racing Spot Picks
SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington (2nd) Dakota Council, 4-1
(5th) Slick Philly, 4-1

Belmont Park (8th) Chocolat City, 7-2
(10th) Skipping, 3-1

Belterra Park (3rd) Pure Delight, 4-1
(6th) Auscar, 5-1

Canterbury Park (7th) Let's Do It, 5-1
(10th) Coconino Slim, 7-2

Charles Town (6th) Stud Magnet, 4-1
(7th) Colarful Song, 6-1

Delaware Park (2nd) Overlook, 4-1
(7th) Tea Time, 3-1

Ellis Park (5th) La Rue Lady, 4-1
(8th) Cat With a Twist, 7-2

Evangeline Downs (5th) Art Deenroo, 6-1
(9th) Ubeta Hope, 3-1

Finger Lakes (1st) Classic Charlie, 5-1
(3rd) Dance I Can, 3-1

Lone Star Park (3rd) Retablo, 3-1
(9th) Two Step Song, 5-1

Los Alamitos (6th) Justamitch, 9-2
(8th) Katy's Plum, 6-1

Louisiana Downs (1st) Papaz Poker, 4-1
(5th) Holmybeer Watchthis, 7-2

Penn National (6th) T.J. Goodie, 9-2
(8th) Primal Heat, 3-1

Pleasanton (3rd) Two Pump, 4-1
(4th) Eddie Better, 6-1

Prairie Meadows (7th) Dynamic Within, 4-1
(9th) Coffee Toffee, 7-2

Presque Isle Downs (3rd) Triple Cross, 4-1
(4th) Seventy West, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belmont - Race #5 - Post: 3:24pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 PILATUS (ML=2/1)


PILATUS - Last race May 25th was pretty strong for a $40,000 Maiden Claiming race so this gelding's race wasn't all that bad. Horses that finish second in Maiden races and finish well in front of the third horse are generally good bets next time out. Ran a nice speed figure of 84 on Mar 7th. Followed it up with another speed figure of 83. Either effort is good enough to take this race. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five Equibase class figure points like this one did last race out. I believe he'll be competitive at this class level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #15 CHARITABLE (ML=3/1), #2 MISCHIEVIOUSLY (ML=7/2), #4 RETIRE FIFTY FIVE (ML=5/1),

CHARITABLE - 3/1 is just too low of a price to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. Pace is so significant, and this speedball is going to have a speed battle on his hands. MISCHIEVIOUSLY - Awfully difficult to invest in this questionable contender when he hasn't been showing any gumption recently. RETIRE FIFTY FIVE - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this gelding finished seventh.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PILATUS - One of the class angles that my buddy Solo and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This racer is in the top spot in my book.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #9 PILATUS to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [6,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #7 - Post: 7:40pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,201 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 FATHER WAYNE (ML=8/1)
#5 SEARCHIN FOR DAMES (ML=7/2)
#3 DYNAMIC WITHIN (ML=4/1)


FATHER WAYNE - Not much pace in this race other than this horse. Gelding has shown some early speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Was in a $6,500 Claiming race at Columbus last time around the track. That event had a class number of 82 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain solid contender. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last speed fig, 67, is tops in this group. SEARCHIN FOR DAMES - Using this jock/conditioner combination is a smart move. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last fig, 67, is tops in this field. DYNAMIC WITHIN - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong contest on June 21st. The jock/trainer duo of Shino and Clark has a strong return on investment together. That last workout tells me this gelding is set for a top performance. Last event at Prairie Mdws on Jun 21st was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes in this race. He should do well this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STORMIN RIVER (ML=9/2), #6 LIGHTNING FIR (ML=8/1), #4 WILDCATCLASS (ML=8/1),

STORMIN RIVER - Not probable for this horse to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint contest. When checking today's class figure, he will have to record a much better rating than last out to battle in this dirt sprint. LIGHTNING FIR - Common speed fig last race out at Prairie Mdws at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. WILDCATCLASS - No accomplishments for this mount in a short distance contest over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult spot 86/69/52, are the declining Equibase speed figures for this pony.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DYNAMIC WITHIN - This gelding has the best last speed figure at Prairie Mdws. Must be considered in your betting.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 FATHER WAYNE to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:22 PM EASTERN POST
The Dancin Renee Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#1 LA VERDAD
#3 WILLET
#2 CLEAR PASAJ
#4 MISS DA POINT

Here in just the 2nd running of this stakes race named after the 1997 Horse of the Year ... Dancin Renee ... #1 LA VERDAD has exceptional early speed for this sprint, is both the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has won an impressive 7 of 8 starts in her career to date sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt. She's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight starts, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #3 WILLET also has a nice pace profile, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start ... I did not consider her however, for my "top slot," since that last win was more than 200 days ago!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 3, 2013. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 CORUNDUM 5/2

# 6 DOGWOODS LANCE 3/1

# 5 WHOOPIE I KI O 4/1

I favor CORUNDUM here. Brooks is trying to score with this horse by bringing him back so soon. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed rating - 91 - of his last effort. Has performed admirably lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 82 avg speed figure. DOGWOODS LANCE - Ness has him trained admirably to break promptly out of the gate. Has to be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. WHOOPIE I KI O - Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class figures of this group. With a respectable 99 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 I'M NO PATSY 9/5

# 1 BROUGHT TO JUSTICE 10/1

# 5 FIESTA EXPRESS 3/1

I'M NO PATSY should be supported as the wager in here. Trujillo should be able to get this filly to break out quickly in this contest. Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. Is a strong contender based on numbers put up recently under today's conditions. BROUGHT TO JUSTICE - The twosome of Boag/Lucas has one of the most favorable return on investment percentages in this group of horses. Recorded a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. FIESTA EXPRESS - Overall the Speed Figures of this animal look competitive in this race. Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Thursday's free selection:

Los Angeles Dodgers - 155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play:

Oakland w/Gray -165 Over Toronto

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY

TAMPA BAY/DETROIT UNDER the total of 8 runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Thursday Bonus Play 7:05 PM MLB

(909) TEXAS RANGERS at (910) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Take: (909) TEXAS RANGERS -120

There are two versions of the 2014 Texas Rangers. The one we see most of the time is one of the weakest teams in the game. Texas has been downright terrible when anyone not named Yu Darvish takes the mound. But when Darvish starts, it’s a totally different team. The Rangers play with focus and energy and look like a solid overall entry when Darvish throws. The numbers tell the story. Texas is 11-4 when Darvish throws. They’re a woeful 26-43 when he doesn’t.

Darvish is going tonight as the Rangers conclude their series with the Orioles. Wei-Yin Chen will toss for the home team, and I think you’ll see support for the home team based on Chen’s success against Texas. He’s 3-0, 1.29 against Texas and Chen also owns better stats at home as opposed to on the road. Plus, it’s not that tough to make a case for the team with the substantially superior record being installed as a home dog. I’ll be honest, that’s a bit of a red flag in a sense, as there’s no question this line is all about the starting pitchers.

But there is one other set of situational stats that does point to the road team tonight. The Rangers have been their most productive facing lefties on the road, where they’re putting up a very impressive 6.1 runs per nine innings. It’s actually a strange stat line, as they haven’t been nearly as potent at home, which has to stand out as a bit peculiar. But regardless of the site, the fact remains the Rangers are in their best offensive situation.

The Orioles also have some unusual offensive stats, as for whatever reason they haven’t hit well at home. The good news for the Birds is their pitching has been close to half a run better at home than when traveling. But if you want to know why Baltimore has been better on the road than at home this season, all you need to do is check out the offense.

In spite of Chen’s nifty numbers against Texas, I can see him having trouble with this lineup tonight, and I’ll be happy to bank on the talented Darvish to do his thing. He had a brief pothole for a couple of starts, but all was well with Yu last time out and I will be surprised if he doesn’t deliver a good start this evening. The price isn’t ideal, but I’ll be siding with the Rangers to avoid the series sweep tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection:

Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies under 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Thursday Bonus Play 7:05 PM MLB

(909) TEXAS RANGERS at (910) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Take: (909) TEXAS RANGERS -120

There are two versions of the 2014 Texas Rangers. The one we see most of the time is one of the weakest teams in the game. Texas has been downright terrible when anyone not named Yu Darvish takes the mound. But when Darvish starts, it’s a totally different team. The Rangers play with focus and energy and look like a solid overall entry when Darvish throws. The numbers tell the story. Texas is 11-4 when Darvish throws. They’re a woeful 26-43 when he doesn’t.

Darvish is going tonight as the Rangers conclude their series with the Orioles. Wei-Yin Chen will toss for the home team, and I think you’ll see support for the home team based on Chen’s success against Texas. He’s 3-0, 1.29 against Texas and Chen also owns better stats at home as opposed to on the road. Plus, it’s not that tough to make a case for the team with the substantially superior record being installed as a home dog. I’ll be honest, that’s a bit of a red flag in a sense, as there’s no question this line is all about the starting pitchers.

But there is one other set of situational stats that does point to the road team tonight. The Rangers have been their most productive facing lefties on the road, where they’re putting up a very impressive 6.1 runs per nine innings. It’s actually a strange stat line, as they haven’t been nearly as potent at home, which has to stand out as a bit peculiar. But regardless of the site, the fact remains the Rangers are in their best offensive situation.

The Orioles also have some unusual offensive stats, as for whatever reason they haven’t hit well at home. The good news for the Birds is their pitching has been close to half a run better at home than when traveling. But if you want to know why Baltimore has been better on the road than at home this season, all you need to do is check out the offense.

In spite of Chen’s nifty numbers against Texas, I can see him having trouble with this lineup tonight, and I’ll be happy to bank on the talented Darvish to do his thing. He had a brief pothole for a couple of starts, but all was well with Yu last time out and I will be surprised if he doesn’t deliver a good start this evening. The price isn’t ideal, but I’ll be siding with the Rangers to avoid the series sweep tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection

Astros/Angels over 8 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday

Los Angeles Angels - 155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick:

LA Angels w/Shoemaker -160 Over Houston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday:

TEXAS/BALTIMORE UNDER the total of 7.5 runs