Thursday 7/13/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports
Jul 13 '17, 6:30 PM
Soccer | Grmio vs Flamengo
Play on: Flamengo -120 at Bovada

Flamengo -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA
Dunkel

Thursday, July 13

Connecticut @ Los Angeles

Game 659-660
July 13, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
115.766
Los Angeles
116.963
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1
171
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 6 1/2
165 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Connecticut
(+6 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA

Thursday, July 13

Trend Report

10:30 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. LOS ANGELES
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games on the road
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 8 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (11 - 7) at LOS ANGELES (12 - 5) - 7/13/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days since 1997.
CONNECTICUT is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
CONNECTICUT is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 60-90 ATS (-39.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 72-99 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 4-2 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 3

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 3
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 3
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 3
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 3
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 3

Analysis

Favorites and underdogs split for the first time this season, as two out of four favorites ended up cashing after going 0-8 ATS through the first two Canadian weekends. Road teams continue to go strong, going 3-1 SU/ATS. That's now 9-3 ATS through the first three weekends. Last week, we mentioned this was a trend that was all too familiar in the CFL last season, as road teams finished 16-2-2 ATS in the first five weekends of the 2016 regular season.

The 'under' is also hitting at a 66.7 percent clip through the first three weekends, going 8-4 through 12 regular season games. It's a trend we also saw last season, with the 'under' 19-8-1 through the first seven weekends in 2016. Defense reigned surpreme again in Week 3, with only the Hamilton (0-2)-Saskatchewan (1-2) game connecting for the 'over' (52) in a 37-20 win by the Roughriders.

The over has hit in each of Saskatchewan's two home games after an under result on the road in Week 1. Unfortunately for total bettors in Week 4, the Roughriders will be on their bye week. Montreal (1-2) will be in action, however, and they have been a favorite of bettors at the window. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season.

Team Betting Notes

-- The Alouettes have dropped two in a row after a win against the Riders in the opening weekend. Montreal's offense has struggled, averaging just 17.3 points per game (PPG) through three outings. In addition, they have managed an 0-2 ATS mark in two home outings. They'll be back at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Week 4 when Calgary (2-0-1) comes calling.

-- Speaking of the Stampeders, they're unbeaten through their first three regular season games. After failing to cover in their home-and-home against Ottawa (0-2-1) the Stamps won and covered in Winnipeg (1-1). Their defense was the talk in Week 3, as they allowed 10 points for an 'under' result after yielding 35.0 PPG in the first two games.

-- The TigerCats didn't benefit much from their bye in Week 2, as they returned to action and were roughed up in Saskatchewan by a 37-20 score. The TiCats are 0-2 SU/ATS through the first two weeks, both on the road. They'll return home in Week 4.

-- BC Lions (2-1) will be the first visitor at Tim Hortons Stadium in Hamilton, and the Lions hope the good times continue to roll on the road. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS in stops in Toronto (2-1) and Montreal. Also perfect is the 3-0 'under' record for the Lions, as they're allowing just 20.3 PPG through three outings.

-- The Argonauts pulled off a victory in Canada's capital city, edging the RedBlacks 26-25 in Week 3. Toronto is allowing 22.7 PPG through three games while scoring 24.3 points. That's the reason the 'under' has cashed in all three games with a total set at 54 1/2 or 55 so far.

-- Edmonton (2-0) will return from their bye looking to add to the woes of the RedBlacks at Commonwealth Stadium. So far the Esks are perfect on the season, and so is the 'under' at 2-0. Ottawa's high-octane offense 31.7 PPG will be a huge test for the Edmonton D.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, July 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (2 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 1) - 7/13/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in July games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 2-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 2-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, July 13

8:30 PM
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
Winnipeg is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, July 13

Toronto @ Winnipeg

Game 371-372
July 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
107.638
Winnipeg
113.987
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 6 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 3
54
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-3); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Week 4

Toronto (2-1) @ Winnipeg (1-1)— Blue Bombers swept Toronto 34-17/46-29 LY, after losing five of previous six series games. Argonauts are 5-2 in last seven visits here. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Toronto rallied from 12-1 halftime deficit to win 26-25 in Ottawa last week, their first road game of year. Winnipeg was held scoreless in 29-10 home loss to Calgary LW (they led 10-9 at half) in their home opener. Bombers forced five turnovers in splitting two games (+1).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How long can the Under stay hot for CFL bettors?

The season, the Over/Under heading into Week 4 is 4-8 with games averaging just 52.9 points scored per game compared to an average Over/Under line of 54.6. This isn’t a one-season trend either.

The Canadian Football League is known as a pass-happy league with plenty of big plays and high-scoring contests. But that’s not been the case for the first three weeks of the season.

The season, the Over/Under heading into Week 4 is 4-8 with games averaging just 52.9 points scored per game compared to an average Over/Under line of 54.6. This isn’t a one-season trend either. The Under is 40-19-1 (66 percent win rate) in Weeks 1 to 4 in the CFL since 2014.

“I think a big part of it is that teams are getting the early-season rust out,” Greg Sindall, an oddsmaker with Canadian-based sportsbook SportsInteraction.com tells Covers. “Players are figuring out how to play with new teammates, learning each other’s tendencies and strengths. And some teams have new coaches, so the players are learning all the new plays and schemes.

“I expect things will start to even out and we’ll start seeing some higher-scoring games again soon.”

The pattern seems to break by Week 5. The Over/Under mark in Weeks 5 to 20 last season was 35-29 with the total average of points scored per game at 54.4 while the average total was 53.2 over the same period.

It may not be the NFL, but there are football odds hitting the board in Las Vegas this week as the CFL kicks off north of the border. We talk to Johnny Avello of the Wynn Las Vegas about all things CFL betting, including Grey Cup futures and the most bet games for Week 1.

This season, the B.C. Lions, Toronto Argonauts and Montreal Alouettes are a combined 0-9 Over/Under heading into Week 4. The Lions and Argos’ Under success can be credited to both teams' ability to stop opponents from putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. The Als, however, are a different story.

The average total points scored in Montreal's three games this season is just 38. It averages only 312 yards per game and just 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Montreal possesses the league’s leading rusher in Tyrell Sutton but he didn’t get his first carry until the second quarter against the Lions last week.

“Let your playmakers make plays. Put the ball in their hands,” Alouettes slotback Nik Lewis told the Montreal Gazette. “If they can’t make the plays, you need new playmakers or something’s got to change.”

This is a perfect example of what Sindall is talking about, with teams still searching for their identity early into the schedule.

CFL Week 4 kicks off Thursday night with the Argos visiting the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3, 52.5) while the Alouettes (+5.5) host the Calgary Stampeders on Friday. The total for the Montreal-Calgary game opened at 49.5 but has dropped to 48.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Thursday, July 13

Thursday's CFL betting preview and odds: Argonauts at Blue Bombers

Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols completed 27-of-40 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the third quarter last week against Calgary.

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3, 52.5)

The Toronto Argonauts look to continue their promising start to the season when they hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. The Argonauts scored 25 points in the second half en route to a 26-25 victory against the Ottawa Redblacks to move into first place in the East Division, and hope to take another step in the right direction by beating the Blue Bombers for the first time since Nov. 6, 2015.

Toronto has dropped nine straight games against West Division opponents dating back to last season, including both meetings against Winnipeg in 2016 by an average margin of 17 points. Winnipeg is left to go back to the drawing board following a disheartening 29-10 defeat to the Calgary Stampeders. The Blue Bombers harbored serious hopes of challenging the Stampeders for West Division supremacy, but were shut out in the second half en route to their seventh consecutive loss in the series, and hope to bounce back by downing the Argonauts for the third straight time. "It's not a gloomy feeling around here as we lost a football game to a good team," Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols told reporters. "We're going to come back and we have 16 more of these as it's a long season."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS

LINE HISTORY: The Bombers opened as three-point home favorites and the total hit the betting boards at 52.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, neither number has moved.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Ricky Ray threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns to become the sixth player in CFL history to throw for 300 TDs in his career. "I will remember this one a little bit more because it came in a big win," Ray told reporters. "It will be nice when I'm old to think back and remember that was the one where we were able to come back in Ottawa and get to that 300 mark." S.J. Green had a career night as he caught 10 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown while Victor Butler continued his assault on opposing quarterbacks as he recorded three sacks to take his total to a league-leading seven through three games.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Nichols completed 27-of-40 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, including a pick six in the third quarter that turned the tide in Calgary's favor. Weston Dressler caught six passes for 76 yards against the Stampeders to reach 9,000 receiving yards for his career. Linebacker Ian Wild, who recorded 70 tackles in 12 games last season, left the game with an upper-body injury and is out for the foreseeable future while defensive end Tristan Okpalaugo missed the fourth quarter with an undisclosed knock and is doubtful for the clash against his former team.

TRENDS:

* Argonauts are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Argonauts last 6 games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Blue Bombers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Blue Bombers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

EXTRA POINTS:

* Ray leads the CFL in passing yards (1,199).
* Winnipeg K Justin Medlock has made 24 straight field goals dating back to last season.
* Blue Bombers DB T.J. Heath tops the league in interceptions (three) after registering a CFL-best seven in 2016.

 

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

Top 6 over umpires, and top 6 under umpires in first half:

Gonzalez, over 11-2-2
Hoberg, over 9-3-1
Eddings, Hallion, both over 12-5-1
Hernandez over 11-5, Walcott 11-5-1
Marquez over 10-4-1
Iassogna over 9-4, Woodring 9-4-3

Blakney, under 8-1-3
Bellino, under 13-3
Barksdale, Tichenor, both 10-4-1
Kulpa, under 11-5
Nauert, under 10-5
Davis, under 8-4-3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Looking at AL teams at the All-Star break

60-29 Astros— Houston is 33-11 on road; they’ve got a .884 OPS on road, .823 at home. Astros are only 15-11 vs lefties- they’d like to avoid Dodgers (Kershaw-Hill-Wood) if they get to World Series. Altuve makes $4,687,500 this year; starting next year, he’s going to get really rich.

50-39 Red Sox— Will play 11 more home games (25-14) than road games (25-25) the rest of the way. David Price is 4-2, 3.91 in nine starts this year; he’s been sparring with local media. Seeing as he is on the books for $31M a year for the next five years, thats a problem.

47-40 Indians— 21-24 at home, 26-16 on road; unusual. They’re 22-9 when Kluber/Carrasco start, 25-31 with anyone else. Need more production from 1B Carlos Santana, who is hitting .238- he has generally been a better second half player (.835 OPS/.781) in his career.

45-41 New York— Severino is 0-2, 5.75 in his last five starts; Pineda is 1-1, 8.39 in his last five. NY is 7-18 in its last 25 games. This is their lowest payroll in 10 years; Sabathia/Holliday/ARod come off the books this winter— when do they resume trying to sign big $$$ free agents?

47-43 Rays— They’re 27-19 at home, hold 2nd Wild Card right now. Rookie P Faria has 2.11 ERA in his first six MLB starts. Need to find a solid 5th starter for last nine weeks of season. Tampa has four guys under contract for 2018; they’ll be avoiding arbitration a lot this winter.

45-43 Twins— 25-15 on road, 20-28 at home; they’re 18-11 when Santana/Berrios start, 27-32 with anyone else. Rumored to be trying to trade for another starter; Santiago is 0-5, 9.31 in his last five starts. Sano has 21 HR, 62 RBI, .368 OB%, he has become a star.

44-43 Royals— Rebounded from 7-16 April; they’re 22-13 since June 1. Need more from the leadoff spot; their #1 hitters have .207 BA, .236 OB%, which is feeble. KC is 13-4 in Vargas starts- he is 7-0, 2.96 in his last 8 starts. Their $143M payroll is $50M higher than in 2014.

45-47 Angels— Trout comes back Friday; they’re still in contention, Halos are locked into $62M a year for Trout/Pujols for 3 more years. Rookie P Bridwell is 3-1, 3.72 in five starts; he’s been a life saver. #5 hitters are batting only .218 for Angels; they need a bat to protect Trout/Pujols.

43-45 Rangers— Texas has seven players making $10M+ this year; Hamels is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts- they need a big 2nd half from him. Could use more from Odor (.220 BA); Texas is 13-16 in games where GW run scores after 6th inning.

43-47 Mariners— Felix Hernandez (4-3, 4.44) is a junker now; they’re 4-5 in his starts, and owe him $27M a year thru 2019. Team ERA is 3.98 at home, 5.30 on road. Mike Zunino had one HR, 4 RBI on May 31; he hit 10 HR’s, had 31 RBI in June, has only one RBI in July.

42-46 Orioles— Despite their struggles, Orioles are 16-6 in games where winning run scores after 6th inning- they’re 25-16 at home, 17-30 on road- their pitchers have 5.78 ERA on road. O’s are 26-20 vs division foes, but are 16-26 vs everyone else.

41-47 Blue Jays— Underachieving team with payroll of $163,381,937; will they deal guys before July 31? Had strong 18-10 May, but are 15-20 since June 1. Estrada/Liriano/Happ earn $41M combined this year; Toronto is 21-22 in their starts, 10-12 at home.

39-48 Tigers— Aging roster with payroll of $199,750,600; they have six guys making $16M+ this year- they’re not getting their money’s worth. They’re hitting .275 at home (.815 OPS), only .234 on road (.691 OPS). Owner Mike Ilitch passed away earlier this year; not sure what they’ll do.

38-49 White Sox— Team to watch for rest of this month; will they dump salary? Cabrera/Frazier make combined $27M, closer Robertson makes $12.5M. Sox are 19-18 at home, 19-31 on road; they have 13 home games to make up in 2nd half. Chicago has some good prospects at AAA.

39-50 A’s— Can’t keep starting pitchers healthy, defense has deteriorated badly with infield coach Ron Washington off to Atlanta. Brought up couple of promising young players, but 1B Alonso is a free agent. Three of their eight highest-paid players are relievers. Go figure.