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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEWSLETTER NBA Prediction From Alan Harris

Take #702 Golden State (-6) over Cleveland (9 p.m., Thursday, June 4)
The Golden St. Warriors will look to jump out to an early 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals over the Cleveland Cavaliers when the two teams meet Thursday night in Oakland. The Warriors come into the Finals off a 4-1 series win over the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, while the Cavs come into the contest off a 4-0 series sweep of the Atlanta Hawks, winning the Eastern Conference. While we think this series will be much closer than both teams experienced in Round 3, we like the Warriors to get the win here in Game 1. They are 6-2 ATS in games where they have had three or more days of rest, and they have posted an excellent 20-8-2 ATS record in home games when they are facing a team with a winning record on the road. They are also a perfect 4-0 dating back to the regular season in games against teams from the Eastern Conference. The Cavs, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season when it matters the most, have actually struggled a bit in the situation they are in here in Game 1. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off a cover, and they have lost six of their last seven ATS when coming into a game off a straight up win. Throw in the fact that Warriors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 head-to-head meetings with the Cavs, including a 5-1 record at home, and we’ll roll with them to get the win and cover in Game 1. Play Steph Curry and the Warriors -6 as we look for back-to-back winners here.

 

[superbeets]

Champions League Sa 6Jun 19:45

Juventus

v

Barcelona

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		5	3	4/7	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HDADAWND*HWAD​ Most recent​	2 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 3	HWHWALAWHDNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Juventus have conceded only seven goals in 12 Champions League games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Barcelona's brilliant attackers are rarely underrated by bookmakers and the value may be for Juventus to frustrate the Catalans – at least in 90 minutes. Juve's defence has been outstanding in Europe this term but they also created plenty of chances in their impressive two-legged victory over Real Madrid and could take Barca to extra time in Berlin.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Cuneyt Cakir STADIUM: Olympiastadion, Berlin

 

[superbeets]

International Su 7Jun 13:00

Ireland

v

England

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		13/5	23/10	21/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELAND	RECENT FORM
AWHWADALNWHD​ Most recent​	1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 3 1 - 1	HWAWHWAWHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: England have won seven of their last eight matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland would love to give this high-profile friendly their full attention, but they face a crunch Euro 2016 qualifying clash with Scotland less than a week later which could be a problem for Martin O’Neill when selecting his starting 11. England have played well in recent matches and look worthy favourites.

RECOMMENDATION: England
1

 

[superbeets]

International Fr 5Jun 19:45

Scotland

v

Qatar

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		2/5	7/2	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLAND	RECENT FORM
HWADHWHLHWHW​ Most recent​	Unknown	NLNLNLHWHWND​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Scotland have scored in 13 of their last 14 friendly games

EXPERT VERDICT: Qatar have bounced back well from their Asian Cup disappointment with wins over Algeria and Slovenia as well as a draw with Northern Ireland, but they face a tough test against Scotland. Gordon Strachan has got the Scots playing with plenty of freedom and they should justify odds-on favouritism.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golf: Big names at the Memorial

Tournament: The Memorial Tournament
Date: June 4-7
Venue: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Location: Dublin, OH

After a rain-soaked weekend at the Byron Nelson, the PGA members will head to Ohio in hopes of a drier four days at the Memorial Tournament. This event was founded in 1976 and has been honoring a new player each year with this year’s being Sir Nick Faldo.

The par-72, 7,392-yard course was designed by Jack Nicklaus in his hometown and has hosted such tourneys as the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. It will be quite a strong field heading to Muirfield this week as six of the top-10 and another nine from the top-25 of the Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance.

This group will be led by world No.2 Jordan Spieth as last year’s winner, No. 14 Hideki Matsuyama, looks to defend his title. He needed to fend off some tough competition in the win as his 13-under-par score earned him a spot in a playoff with Kevin Na where he won on the first extra hole. Three other players finished in double-digits under par and included big names Watson, Kirk and Scott.

Matsuyama will look to become the seventh player to win multiple times here with the most recent multiple winner being Tiger Woods, who took home the trophy for the fifth time in 2012. Woods will be teeing it up for the first time since the Players when he finished 69th with a score of three-over-par.

Let’s take a look at one of the stronger non-major fields of the year and find some solid choices to come away with a win.

Golfers to Bet

Hideki Matsuyama (20/1): It’s no surprise that the 23-year-old Japanese-born phenom was the winner here last year as he has risen to 14th in the OWGR since then and is putting up big performances from week-to-week in 2015. He has yet to grab a second PGA Tour victory, but has made 14-of-15 cuts this year with seven top-10 finishes; including a runner-up showing at the Waste Management Open and a tremendous fifth at the Masters behind a big Sunday 66. He was able to do so well last year behind hitting 75% of fairways and currently ranks in the top-10 on tour in GIR (70.4%, 9th on tour), total strokes gained (1.718, 2nd on tour) and scrambling (65%, 10th on tour). He’s done no worse than 23rd in each of his last seven events and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t competing for the back-to-back win on Sunday.

Matt Kuchar (24/1): Kuchar has been one of the more consistent top-echelon golfers on the tour in recent seasons and despite missing just one cut with eight top-25s on the year, he is on pace to finish outside of the top-20 in the FedEx Cup Standings for the first time since 2009. He has also won five times in the past five years while missing a miniscule eight cuts, including the one this year, over 134 events in that time. One of his victories came here in 2013 when he carded a 12-under-par score and outlasted Kevin Chappell by two strokes. That is not his only strong showing here as he has totaled 37-under-par in his other four visits here since 2009 and has done no worse that 15th with two other top-fives in that period. Kuchar should be able to bring his tremendous putting (0.566 strokes gained putting, 12th on tour) to Ohio and get another single-digit standing.

Justin Thomas (50/1): Thomas has flown up the rankings to 79th in the world during his rookie season and has made 15-of-20 cuts with an impressive 10 of those weekend visits ending in a top-25 finish and another five getting him in the top-10. He has not slowed down as the fields get tougher either, with six consecutive cuts made and four of them within the top-25. Thomas has finished with a score of 69 or better in half (6) of his rounds over the last three events while hitting more than 62% of GIR in each of his last six tournaments. The 22-year-old certainly has some wins in his future with his length off the tee (300.9 yards per, 17th on tour) and ability with the short stick as his putting average (1.724) ranks ninth amongst his peers. Look for Thomas to start making more people take notice of him with his play at the Memorial this week.

Pat Perez (80/1): Perez continues to impress this season and is currently on a tear with a top-26 finish in each of his last six outings as he comes off of a fifth-place at the Crowne Plaza Invitational behind four straight rounds of 69 or better; finishing with a six-under 64 on Sunday. He’s made 14-of-17 cuts on the year and can thank plenty of that on his 66.9% driving accuracy (33rd on tour) while also ranking in the top-50 in strokes gained putting (.328, 44th on tour) and birdie average (4.03, 19th on tour). Perez is closing in on $17 million in career earnings and has made the cut here in each of the last five years with four of them being in the top-30 and also included an eight in 2013. Perez has just one win in his 356 career events, but has made a living at making it to the weekend and should be able to compete come Sunday this week.

Charles Howell III (170/1): Howell III has not been having the best season, but the two-time PGA Tour winner has been in the top-35 of the FedEx Cup Standings in each of the past two previous years and has still been solid with 15 cuts made in 20 events. The former Oklahoma State University standout has sprinkled in three top-10s in 2015 and has made the cut at the Memorial in each of his last three attempts, ranking in the top-25 twice. His stats this year show a player that could have a huge performance on any given week as he ranks 26th in driving distance (296.9 yards per), 19th in GIR (69.4%) and 28th in strokes gained from tee-to-green (0.699). Howell should regain some of his past success here and come out with a solid showing in Ohio.

Memorial Betting Odds

Jordan Spieth 7/1
Dustin Johnson 13/1
Justin Rose 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Jason Day 22/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Jim Furyk 24/1
Matt Kuchar 24/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Tiger Woods 27/1
Bill Haas 30/1
Chris Kirk 30/1
Kevin Na 35/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Brooks Koepka 40/1
Kevin Kisner 45/1
Patrick Reed 45/1
Russell Henley 45/1
Ryan Moore 45/1
Gary Woodland 50/1
Jason Dufner 50/1
Justin Thomas 50/1
Ben Martin 60/1
Keegan Bradley 70/1
Daniel Berger 75/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Nick Watney 90/1
Brendon Todd 95/1
Graham Delaet 95/1
Marc Leishman 95/1
Robert Streb 95/1
Rory Sabbatini 95/1
Steve Stricker 95/1
Harris English 100/1
Charl Schwartzel 110/1
Tony Finau 110/1
Cameron Tringale 120/1
Francesco Molinari 120/1
Jason Bohn 120/1
Kevin Chappell 120/1
Russell Knox 120/1
Sean OHair 120/1
Shawn Stefani 120/1
Tommy Fleetwood 120/1
George McNeill 130/1
Brendan Steele 140/1
Chesson Hadley 150/1
Kevin Streelman 150/1
Morgan Hoffmann 150/1
Brendon de Jonge 160/1
Jason Kokrak 160/1
Charles Howell III 170/1
Matt Every 170/1
Danny Lee 180/1
Steven Bowditch 180/1
Matt Jones 200/1
David Hearn 220/1
John Senden 220/1
Scott Stallings 230/1
John Peterson 240/1
Ryo Ishikawa 240/1
Sangmoon Bae 240/1
Andy Sullivan 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
Daniel Summerhays 250/1
John Huh 250/1
K.J. Choi 250/1
Martin Laird 250/1
Scott Brown 250/1
Troy Merritt 250/1
William McGirt 250/1
Bo Van Pelt 300/1
Carlos Ortiz 300/1
Ernie Els 300/1
George Coetzee 300/1
Patrick Rodgers 300/1
Scott Piercy 300/1
Will MacKenzie 300/1
Zac Blair 300/1
Gonzalo Fernandez Castano 350/1
Jim Herman 350/1
Seung-Yul Noh 350/1
Stewart Cink 350/1
Alex Cejka 400/1
Hudson Swafford 400/1
James Hahn 400/1
Adam Hadwin 450/1
David Lingmerth 450/1
Jeff Overton 450/1
Andres Gonzales 500/1
Andrew Putnam 500/1
Andrew Svoboda 500/1
Ben Curtis 500/1
Bradley Neil 500/1
Brian Stuard 500/1
Cameron Smith 500/1
Camilo Villegas 500/1
Carl Pettersson 500/1
Chris Stroud 500/1
D.A. Points 500/1
Erik Compton 500/1
Greg Chalmers 500/1
Gunn Yang 500/1
Jason Gore 500/1
Jonathan Byrd 500/1
Justin Leonard 500/1
Ken Duke 500/1
Kenny Perry 500/1
Kyle Reifers 500/1
Lucas Glover 500/1
Michael Putnam 500/1
Nick Taylor 500/1
Retief Goosen 500/1
Richard Sterne 500/1
Sam Saunders 500/1
Scott Langley 500/1
Thomas Aiken 500/1
Timothy Crouch 500/1
Vijay Singh 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tiger takes aim to rejoin winner's circle
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Tiger Woods, playing in just the fifth tournament of 2015 at the Memorial this week, is aiming for his first victory in almost two years.

Woods, 39, is making his first tournament appearance in a month and just his second since the Masters when he plays in the Memorial hosted by Jack Nicklaus at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, starting Thursday.

Woods also spent two days this week in preparation for the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in University Place, Wash., near Seattle, which begins June 18.

"It's about peaking at the right time, getting everything organized,'' Woods said Wednesday. "The main thing is I want to be able to start playing well again, be in contention with a chance to win. I was there at Augusta with a chance, I'd like to get there more often and give myself more opportunities to win.''

After a tie for 17th at the Masters following a nine-week break to work on his game, Woods took a month off before he returned at the Players Championship. He made the cut on the number and finished in a tie for 69th.

Woods has dropped to 172nd in the world. This will be his 15th start at the Memorial, a tournament he has won five times. Two years ago, he tied for 65th when he was No. 1 in the world and last year he missed the Memorial while recovering from back surgery.

"(I'm) a lot more comfortable coming into this week than certainly the Players,'' Woods said. "We had to do some pretty good work going into the Players. But this one's a little bit easier.''

Woods kept his sense of humor when asked about his 6-year-old son Charlie's golf swing.

"He's got some parts in his swing that I'm trying to do,'' Woods said. "It's a little frustrating at times.''

Woods talked about practicing 40- and 50-yard putts on the unique layout at Chambers Bay in the state of Washington. On Monday, he spent 3 1/2 hours on both the front nine and the back nine.

Woods said it went faster on Tuesday after the 14-time major champion got a better feel for the course, measured at more than 7,900 yards.

United States Golf Association executive director Mike Davis, who also sets up the course, has predicted that a player would not win the U.S. Open without seeing the venue multiple times in advance.

"We got out there and it was it was like, 'Oh, my god, there's so many different options here.'" said Woods, a three-time U.S. Open champion.

"It's very challenging in the sense that Mike (Davis) has so many different options that he can present us as challenges. There are so many different numbers (yardages) that you have to know off the tees and how that's going to play.

"Generally, you look at old school U.S. Opens, it is narrow fairways, high rough, miss it, hack it out, try and make a par from the fairway.

"At Chambers, there's so many different landing areas and aggressive or passive lines, run the ball up, 40 feet, 50 feet, even sometimes 30 yards right of the green or left of the green, and it comes back 10 feet. It's a different type of golf course. We don't even see this in British Opens because they're not banked like this.''

Woods missed last year's U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 while recovering from back surgery.

Woods has been chasing golf's ultimate number of 18 major titles since he posted Nicklaus' accomplishments on his bedroom wall as a kid growing up in Cypress, Calif. Woods has been stuck on 14 majors since capturing the 2008 U.S. Open in a playoff for the ages against Rocco Mediate at Torrey Pines.

Nicklaus weathered lulls in his great career but persevered to claim his 18th major championship in the 1986 Masters at age 46.

"I've said many times, he'll be fine," the Golden Bear said of Woods.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Williams the clear fave heading into semis
Andrew Caley

World No. 1 rank Serena Williams is the clear favorite to win the 2015 French Open title after advancing to the semi finals.

Williams is listed at -250 to win her third championship at Roland Garros. Her toughest competition should come from Lucie Safarova at +450 or 2008 champion Ana Ivanovic at +600.

Williams is a -600 favorite to advance to the finals over Timea Bacsinzky.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Djokovic tabbed as huge fave against Murray
Andrew Avery

An online shop has opened world No. 1 Novak Djokovic as a lofty -450 favorite in his French Open semifinal matchup versus Andy Murray.

Djokovic dispatched of Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in Wednesday's quarterfinal match, handing the Spaniard just his second career loss on the clay courts of Roland Garros.

Murray defeated No. 7 David Ferrer 7-6 (4), 6-2, 5-7, 6-1 in their quarterfinal contest.

The pair have played three times in 2015, with the Serb winning all three. In fact, Djokovic has won the previous seven meetings with Murray and has an overall record of 18-8.

It will be their first meeting in the French Open.

 

[Scott602]

Goodfella and Nover TIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Edge - NBA Finals
By Tony Mejia

A segment-by-segment breakdown of the 2015 NBA Finals participants:

Backcourt starters

Kyrie Irving won’t be 100 percent, already admitting it publicly rather than pretending he’s expecting to be his normal self. He’ll be able to knock down shots whether he’s 60 percent or 90, but how well he’s moving really matters on the defensive end. Irving expects to start out on Stephen Curry, which means chasing the league’s MVP through screens lies in his future. If he’s a liability, Matthew Dellavedova will again become a better option for the Cavs. Curry is flammable and can’t be given opportunities to gain his rhythm with early open looks. He’s averaged just over 11 3-point attempts throughout the Warriors playoff run, shooting less than 30 percent just three times. GSW is 1-2 in those games and 11-1 when he tops that clip, which is low-hanging fruit for him. In that sense, Curry’s ability to stretch the floor from anywhere has remained Golden State’s driving force.

Iman Shumpert is available to give Curry different looks and will try to make Klay Thompson’s return to action as difficult as possible despite surrendering a few inches in height. Thompson was named Third Team All-NBA, but had a brutal start to the Western Conference finals, going 4-for-22 from 3-point range through the first three games before finishing strong. He was 4-for-6 in Game 5 before catching Trevor Ariza’s knee to the head, so he’ll look to pick up where he left off. Thompson reported that he had a great first practice in attempting to comfortably comply with the league’s concussion protocol prior to Thursday’s opener. If he looks like his normal self, you have to ride with the Splash Brothers.

Edge: Golden State

Frontcourt starters

LeBron James believes he’s never been better. Although no longer as explosive as he was last decade, he’s improved by elevating his already astronomical on-court IQ to new heights, really taking to this mentor role. Making sure everyone remains involved has always been a significant part of his game, but his 8.3 assists average thus far this postseason is a career-high. His previous high came during the ’07 Finals run, and there are clearly parallels between his first appearance and this one given his role as primary catalyst, especially with a compromised Irving and no Kevin Love.

Tristan Thompson has eased the burden and helped strengthen the Cavs new look with his defense and rebounding, certainly earning himself a significant raise this offseason with his contract conveniently up. It’s going to be up to Draymond Green, runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year, to help counter both. Not at the same time, obviously, but you can expect to see him on James duty as well as pitching in at times against the larger Thompson since he’s exceptional at boxing out. Harrison Barnes will also make a massive difference and is right up there among the guys whose work with swing the series in one direction or the other. He’s got to be a factor on defense and as a threat that’s going to find himself open for great opportunities, must assert himself efficiently.

The center matchup between Andrew Bogut and Timofey Mozgov will also be an integral part of the series. Whoever can stay out of foul trouble the longest will give his team the best shot at putting its most effective defensive lineup on the floor. Bogut is far savvier and sounder defensively, but Mozgov is a far better athlete at this stage of their careers. This is a pretty even matchup, but LeBron does earn the Cavs the slightest of nods.

Edge: Cleveland

Bench

J.R. Smith, come on down, you’re the next contestant on Finals X-factor. If he can continue being the positive difference-maker he’s been over the past two series, the guy that rightfully often became a scapegoat for the misfortunes of the Nuggets and Knicks might swing the NBA Finals. The story is that Smith felt so repentant over getting himself suspended and leaving his team short-handed that he vowed to come back more focused. He’s been a plus defender, but the key to all his success is simply shots going down. His confidence is through the roof because he’s shot 24-for-63 (44 pct) from 3-point range since returning from swinging on Jae Crowder, so he’s playing better in every phase of the game. If his shot goes south, so will his level of play, which is always the danger.

The Warriors will most rely on Andre Iguodala among their arsenal of reserves. He’ll be tasked with LeBron duty whenever he’s on the floor, so if he can supply consistent offense, that’s gravy. After shooting just 31 percent against New Orleans, Iguodala is shooting just under 50 (35-for-71) the past two series, which makes him more of a threat as a passer, his ideal role and strength on that end of the floor.

The Cavs probably won’t go more than eight deep, utilizing Dellavedova as the stabilizing floor presence and James Jones as a shooter to spread the floor. The term dust off Shawn Marion Mike Miller or Kendrick Perkins can be used literally and will be used liberally if any finds their way into the regular rotation. In addition to Iggy, the Warriors will have versatile guard Shaun Livingston, 7-footer Festus Ezeli, situational vets David Lee and Leandro Barbosa, as well the now healthy Marreese Speights available as options to try and match up. That versatility could make a huge difference.

Edge: Golden State

Coaching

Steve Kerr and David Blatt are in their first-year as NBA head coaches, so the term rookie can be applied. Hopefully you don’t associate that with being novices, since that wouldn’t be accurate. Kerr has tremendous experience as a five-time champion, serving as shooting specialist and reliable presence. He’s been a team president, general manager and analyst, gaining experience in varying vantage points. Blatt has played for championships and Olympic medals, from Euroleague to domestic leagues and Cups in Israel, Italy and Russia, not to mention his work with the latter’s national program.

The moment won’t be too big for either man. In terms of temperament, Kerr is more the calm counselor, while Blatt is a motivator/cheerleader. Their adjustments will come via lineup tweaks, while defense will be the top priority for both. Blatt has the better coach on the floor in James, while Kerr has more toys at his disposal, giving him the ability to see if he can effectively go small. The inclination here is to ride Kerr due to his 67 wins and more poised presence on the sideline, especially with more buttons to push.

Edge: Golden State

Intangibles

Although both teams enjoy a tremendous homecourt advantage, it wouldn’t be surprising to see each lose at least once in their own gym.

Rebounding and 3-point shooting will be the major points of contention. Can the Warriors manage to neutralize Cleveland’s size advantage through long boards and effective box-outs? Will James find a comfort level from beyond the arc that’s eluded him thus far? Can Smith and Shumpert stay hot? What will Irving’s presence add? The Cavs aren’t analytics freaks, but they’re aware of the basic math that suggests the only way to keep up with a team that shoots it as well and as often as Golden State does from the perimeter is to try and keep pace. You know Splash brothers stay wet.

The Warriors are certainly aware of Cleveland’s perfect postseason record when winning the war on the glass, so they’ll be looking to neutralize that part of the game, which may ultimately slow down their ability to get out quickly in transition if more bodies are committed to gang rebound. For the purposes of picking a winner in this category, the fact the Warriors have the extra home game and the more capable shooters are positive undeniable factors.

Edge: Golden State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fast Facts - NBA Finals

NBA Finals Betting Angles

-- Home Teams are 14-3 in the last 17 Game 1’s of the NBA Finals

-- The Zig-Zag theory has worked for the first two games of the last six NBA Finals, meaning Game 1 winner loses in Game 2. The last time the NBA Finals started 2-0 was in 2007, when coincidentally LeBron James and the Cavaliers lost their first two games to the eventual champions San Antonio Spurs.

-- LeBron James hasn’t began many series in his playoff career on the road. Seven times with the Cavaliers and Heat, James has dropped Game 1 on the highway. However, his teams have responded well against the number in Game 2, covering six times, including five times in the underdog role. James lost the first three times in this situation, dating back to his first stint in Cleveland (2006 – Detroit, 2007 – Detroit, 2008 – Boston), but cashed twice against the Pistons in Game 2 following the series opening loss. Twice in the 2014 playoffs with the Heat, James dropped the road opener, but responded with outright wins over the Pacers and Spurs.

-- There has only been three sweeps the last 20 years. The most common outcome in the NBA Finals during this span is six games, which happened eight times then five (6) and seven (3) games.

East meets West

Golden State went 25-5 versus the Eastern Conference in the regular season, which includes a 14-1 record at home. The lone loss came to Chicago in overtime, 113-111.

On the road (see table below), the Warriors were favored in 14 of their 15 games against opponents from the East and they went 11-4 straight up and 7-8 against the spread. The 'under' went 8-7 in those games.

Golden State vs. East on the Road

Date Matchup Spread SU-ATS Result Total Result

3/28/15 Golden State 108 at Milwaukee 95 Warriors -5 W-W Under 208
3/2/15 Golden State 108 at Brooklyn 110 Warriors -5.5 L-L Over 210
3/1/15 Golden State 106 at Boston 101 Warriors -8 W-L Under 218
2/27/15 Golden State 113 at Toronto 89 Warriors -2 W-W Under 213
2/26/15 Golden State 99 at Cleveland 110 Warriors +3 L-L Under 216.5
2/24/15 Golden State 114 at Washington 107 Warriors -6.5 W-W Over 204
2/22/15 Golden State 98 at Indiana 104 Warriors -4 L-L Under 204 (No Curry)
2/9/15 Golden State 89 at Philadelphia 84 Warriors -16 W-L Under 205.5
2/7/15 Golden State 106 at New York 92 Warriors -15.5 W-L Under 203
2/6/15 Golden State 116 at Atlanta 124 Warriors -2 L-L Over 213
12/6/14 Golden State 112 at Chicago 102 Warriors -2 W-W Over 204
11/30/14 Golden State 104 at Detroit 93 Warriors -8.5 W-W Under 202
11/28/14 Golden State 106 at Charlotte 101 Warriors -8.5 W-L Over 201
11/26/14 Golden State 111 at Orlando 96 Warriors -8 W-W Over 202.5
11/25/14 Golden State 114 at Miami 97 Warriors -7.5 W-W Over 202.5


Cleveland was 18-12 against the Western Conference this season. At home the Cavs were a respectable 11-4 and only six of those opponents scored more than 100 points, which helped the 'under' go 11-4.

On the road (see table below), the Cavs were a tepid 7-8 both SU and ATS but four of those losses came when LeBron James or Kyrie Irving weren't in the lineup.

In games played on the West Coast, the club was 2-4 both SU and ATS.

Despite a losing record versus the West on the road, bettors should note that Cleveland closed the season with a 6-1 record both SU and ATS in non-conference play as visitors and some of those victories were very impressive. The offense averaged an eye opening 115.7 points per game during this span, which helped the 'over' produce a 6-1 record.

Cleveland vs. West on the Road

Date Matchup Spread SU-ATS Result Total Result

3/25/15 Cleveland 111 at Memphis 89 Cavs -1 W-W Over 194
3/12/15 Cleveland 128 at San Antonio 125 Cavs -1.5 W-W Over 206.5
3/10/15 Cleveland 127 at Dallas 94 Cavs -4 W-W Over 201
3/1/15 Cleveland 103 at Houston 105 Cavs +1 L-L Over 206.5 (No Kyrie)
1/31/15 Cleveland 106 at Minnesota 90 Cavs -11 W-W Under 204
1/16/15 Cleveland 126 at L.A. Clippers 121 Cavs +8.5 W-W Over 206.5
1/15/15 Cleveland 109 at L.A. Lakers 102 Cavs -6.5 W-W Over 207
1/13/15 Cleveland 100 at Phoenix 107 Cavs +4.5 L-L Under 212.5
1/11/15 Cleveland 84 at Sacramento 103 Cavs +3.5 L-L Under 206 (No LeBron)
1/9/15 Cleveland 94 at Golden State 112 Cavs +13.5 L-L Under 210.5 (No LeBron)
12/12/14 Cleveland 114 at New Orleans 119 Cavs +1.5 L-L Over 200.5
12/11/14 Cleveland 94 at Oklahoma City 103 Cavs +7.5 L-L Under 202 (No LeBron)
11/7/14 Cleveland 110 at Denver 101 Cavs -6.5 W-W Push 211
11/5/14 Cleveland 100 at Utah 102 Cavs -5.5 L-L Under 207
11/4/14 Cleveland 82 at Portland 101 Cavs -2 L-L Under 207


Days of the Week

NBA players may not focus on days of the week necessarily when approaching games, but several numbers stick out when handicapping this angle heading into the NBA Finals. The schedule plays out with games on Sunday (twice), Tuesday (twice), Thursday (twice), and Friday (once), as three of those contests depend on the length of the series.

Cleveland’s most productive day of the week this season came on Tuesdays, owning a 10-3 SU record, including a perfect 3-0 mark in the playoffs. However, the Cavaliers covered only five times on Tuesday nights, as Game 3 takes place at Quicken Loans Arena on Tuesday June 9.

Golden State’s best winning percentage occurred on Thursdays with a 7-2 mark (77%), but the Warriors put together a subpar 3-6 ATS record in these contests, as Game 1 at Oracle Arena tips off on Thursday. The most profitable day for Golden State came on Fridays with an 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS ledger, even though a potential Game 7 in Oakland is the only time the Warriors can play on a Friday the rest of the way.

Below are the straight-up, against the spread, and totals numbers for each of day of the week related to the NBA Finals schedule.

2014-15 Straight Up Records (Playoffs)

Team Sunday Tuesday Thursday Friday
Cleveland 12-5 (4-0) 10-3 (3-0) 8-4 (2-0) 13-9 (1-1)
Golden State 9-3 (1-0) 9-6 (1-1) 7-2 (2-0) 11-4 (1-0)


2014-15 ATS Records (Playoffs)
Team Sunday Tuesday Thursday Friday
Cleveland 8-9 (2-2) 5-8 (1-2) 7-2 (2-0) 10-12 (1-1)
Golden State 4-8 (1-0) 7-8 (0-2) 3-6 (0-2) 10-5 (1-0)


2014-15 Total (O/U) Records (Playoffs)
Team Sunday Tuesday Thursday Friday
Cleveland 6-11 (2-2) 7-6 (2-1) 4-8 (0-2) 8-13-1 (1-1)
Golden State 3-9 (0-1) 8-7 (0-2) 4-5 (1-1) 9-6 (1-0)


Fatigue Factor

Both teams enter this series with at least a week off before Game 1.

Will they be rested or rusty?

There records throughout the season below. Make a note that LeBron James missed eight games when the Cavaliers had one day of rest and the team was 1-7 straight up in those matchups.

2014-15 Records with Rest

Team 1 Day 2 Day 3 Days or More

Cleveland 35-19 SU, 24-30 ATS 14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Golden State 45-12 SU, 26-31 ATS 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS


The schedule break down for the best-of-seven series.

Game 1 - Cavs (8 days) Warriors (7 days)
Game 2 - Two Days of Rest
Game 3 - One Day of Rest
Game 4 - One Day of Rest
Game 5 - Two Days or Rest
Game 6 - One Day of Rest
Game 7 - Two days of Rest

Based on the above schedule, something is going to have to give in Game 2 and possibly Game 5 and 7 since the Cavaliers and Warriors have both been exceptional on exactly two days of rest.

Key Numbers to Note

6.6 – This is the rebounding margin by which the Cavs have been beating opponents on the glass, best these playoffs. They haven’t lost a game where they win the battle of the boards and have feasted on second chances. Golden State must neutralize Cleveland’s advantage here.

15.4 - That’s the shooting percentage Andre Iguodala has held opposing scorers to when tasked with guarding them as the primary isolation defender. LeBron has had success against him in the past, including burying a game-winning 3-pointer as a member of the Heat in February of last season, but he should expect a tough time of it against one of the best on-ball defenders in the game. Between his savvy, athleticism, length and anticipation, Iggy has the tools to play a critical role.

17.6 - LeBron James’ 3-point shooting percentage actually improved when he hit 25 percent of his looks from beyond the arc against the Hawks, boosting him to that ugly number you see to the left (12-for-68) so far this postseason. His 2-for-6 effort in Game 4 was his best these playoffs, so if he can continue that upward trend in Golden State, that could be immense. He’s stated this week that if he’s not able to get it going, he’ll simply stop shooting them.

25.1 - The Warriors are averaging this many dimes per game thus far during the playoffs, best in the league. They averaged 27.1 during the regular season, also tops. Steve Kerr will be reminding them often to move that ball and make sure it doesn’t stick.

30.0 – Even though this is a paltry 3-point percentage that would mean Stephen Curry would be struggling significantly, the Warriors are 11-1 this postseason when he surpasses this clip. They’re 1-2 when he fails. Considering he’s taken at least eight 3s in every playoff game thus far, getting him to knock down a couple so that the Cavs over-commit every time he stalks a shot will undoubtedly create breakdowns. Cleveland leads all playoff teams by surrendering a 3-point shooting clip of 28.1, coming off impressively clamping down on Atlanta to keep the Eastern Conference finals from being competitive.

Betcha Didn't Know!

-- The Warriors became the 17th team in NBA history to win at least 65 regular season games. This bodes well for winning a title, as 13 of the previous 16 clubs in this class hoisted the championship trophy. The most recent squad in this elite category to win a title was the 2012-13 Miami Heat team that finished the season with 66 victories. The only clubs that failed to produce a championship with at least 65 regular season victories were the 1972-73 Celtics, 2006-07 Mavericks, and the 2008-09 Cavaliers.

-- Eleven of the last 16 NBA champions have come from the Western Conference.

-- Since the NBA started awarding the Most Valuable Player award in the 1955-96 season, the league has had 30 of the MVP's play in the NBA Finals. In those 30 series, the team with the MVP went 22-8 (73%) in the finals. LeBron James was the last player to pull off the double in the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Stephen Curry will look to join the list in this series for Golden State.

-- This finals matchup features a pair of rookie head coaches in David Blatt and Steve Kerr. The last rookie coach in the NBA Finals was Paul Westphal with Phoenix in 1993. The Suns lost to the Bulls in six games.

-- The last rookie coach to win the NBA Finals was Pat Riley, when he accomplished the feat with the Los Angeles Lakers in 1982.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cavs still seeing action as Game 1 approaches
Andrew Caley

The Cleveland Cavaliers series price has slowly improved since opening at +200 to win the NBA Finals last week, now sitting at +185.

The favored Golden State Warriors still have come down to -220 after opening at -250.

Game 1 of the NBA Finals goes Thursday at Oracle Arena in Oakland, where the Warriors are currently 6-point favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game 1 - Cavaliers at Warriors
By Kevin Rogers

For the fifth consecutive season, LeBron James is playing for an NBA title. The past four years were with the Heat, winning twice, but the King of Cleveland wants to bring the city its first professional championship since 1964 when the Cavaliers face off with the Warriors for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night at Oracle Arena.

Cleveland (65-31 SU, 47-49 ATS) endured an overhauled roster, a first-time NBA head coach, and in-season controversy, but still found a way to make its first NBA Finals appearance since 2007. James led the Cavs to an incredible 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS record in the postseason, with both losses coming to the Bulls in the second round. Cleveland finished off a four-game sweep of East top seed Atlanta in the conference finals, even though Kyrie Irving was sidelined for a pair of games and Kevin Love has been out since the end of the opening round with a shoulder injury.

What about the Warriors? Golden State (79-18 SU, 54-42-1 ATS) pretty much showcased the same roster as the team that fell in seven games of the opening round of last season’s playoffs to the Clippers, but hired Steve Kerr for his first coaching job. The move paid off as the Warriors are back in the NBA Finals for the first time since 1975, while owning a ridiculous 46-3 record at Oracle Arena. Golden State played one more game than Cleveland in the playoffs, posting a 12-3 SU and 7-8 ATS record. However, five of those ATS losses came as a double-digit favorite.

Even though the Warriors showcase MVP Stephen Curry and All-Star Klay Thompson in its explosive backcourt, Golden State is one of the top defensive teams in the league. The Warriors cashed the ‘under’ in 11 of 15 postseason contests, while limiting Houston to 98 points or less in three of five games. At home, Golden State hasn’t seen the ‘over’ hit yet, going 6-0-1 to the ‘under’ at Oracle Arena.

There are plenty of fast facts to get caught up on for this series, but one of the most interesting nuggets heading into Game 1 involves James. In his playoff career with the Cavaliers and Heat, the former MVP has lost Game 1 on the road seven of eight times, with the lone victory coming over the Hawks in the last round. However, James has won four straight Game 2’s after dropping the series opener on the road, so that can be something to keep in your pocket heading into Sunday’s action.

In the two meetings this season between the conference champions, the home team won each time. However, James missed the first matchup in Oakland back in January, part of the eight-game stretch in which he rested a sore knee. The Warriors held the Cavaliers to 40 second half points in a 112-94 blowout as 13-point favorites, one of 14 home victories against Eastern Conference foes this season. J.R. Smith led the Cavs with 27 points, while Irving chipped in 23, as Cleveland was held to 40% shooting. Curry and Thompson lit up Cleveland with a combined 47 points, while Draymond Green dropped in 10-point, 11-rebound, eight-assist effort.

James suited up in the second go-around against the Warriors at Quicken Loans Arena in late February and the result was drastically different. The Cavaliers took care of Golden State as three-point favorites, 110-99, as James scored 42 points and pulled down 11 rebounds, while Irving overcame a poor shooting night (6-of-17) to put up 24 points. The Warriors didn’t receive the same production from the Splash Brothers, as Curry and Thompson combined for just 31 points on 10-of-30 shooting.

NBA analyst Tony Mejia details how Cleveland’s star hasn’t been himself in series openers, “LeBron James has an average of five turnovers per game in series openers this postseason and registered series-lows in field goal attempts in two of three Game 1’s. His preferred approach of pulling back some in order to better decipher how teams are attempting to play him will be a major factor here and may play into the Warriors hands. Golden State will aggressively ensure it makes the most of its early homecourt advantage, so expect Kerr to challenge his team to take some risks in blitzing LeBron with double-teams and jumping passing lanes wherever possible, looking to speed up the pace and keep this from becoming the slower halfcourt-style game the Eastern Conference champs prefer. As important as it will be to see where Irving and Thompson are health-wise, it will be equally vital to see who is able to manipulate pace.”

As far as both Irving and Thompson go, both All-Stars will be ready for Game 1 even though each will not likely by at 100%. Irving’s knee tendinitis limited him against Atlanta as David Blatt was cautious with the point guard during the week of rest. Thompson suffered a concussion in the Game 5 clincher against Houston when Trevor Ariza’s knee hit the Warriors’ guard in the head on a pump-fake. Even though there were concerns Thompson was going to sit out the opener, Kerr says the guard has been cleared to play.

From a props perspective, Sportsbooks have put out an incredible list of Game 1 props to bet on, including how many points James and Curry will score in the opener. James (29) and Curry (29 ½) are obviously at the top of that list, as James eclipsed the 29-point mark in seven of 14 playoff games (three on road), while Curry posted eight games of 30 points or more in the postseason.

Nine of the last 10 NBA Finals has seen the home team claim the opener, including San Antonio blowing out James’ Heat squad, 110-95 in “Crampgate” last June. Going through the historical database, Western Conference has won seven straight NBA Finals openers, while James is 0-3 in his career in road Game 1’s.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Lucky' Cavaliers have the edge when facing low-scoring frontcourts
By JASON LOGAN

You’ve got to be good to be lucky. And, heading into the NBA Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers have had plenty of luck.

That’s not to say they haven’t had their share of bad fortunes in the postseason, what with Kevin Love going down with a shoulder injury and Kyrie Irving hopping around on one leg. But even in those dire situations, the Cavs have pulled the horseshoe from their butts and benefited from some good ol' fashion luck.

Most of that good juju pertains to the frontcourt, more specifically the power forward and center positions, which looked solid at the start of the season. Headlined by Love and backed with hard-working veteran Anderson Varejao, big-bodied Timofey Mozgov, and versatile forward Tristan Thompson, Cleveland’s big men were the perfect complement to LeBron James and Irving.

Then Varejao tore his Achilles in December. His absence, while felt in the second half of the season, was compounded by Love’s separated shoulder versus Boston in the first round of the playoffs, leaving Cleveland’s frontcourt about as thin as Prince’s mustache. And that’s when luck showed up.

Following a four-game beatdown of the Celtics, the Cavaliers were set to face the Chicago Bulls and their towering frontcourt attack, which included a resurgent Pau Gasol who dominated Milwaukee in the opening round.

And Gasol continued that strong play into the second-round matchup with the Cavs before suffering a hamstring injury in Game 3 – a series-swinging lucky break for the Cavaliers. Without their big man in the middle making quick work of Cleveland’s forwards, the Bulls dropped three straight after winning two of the first three games.

In the Eastern Conference finals, luck would again side with Cleveland. The Hawks had one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA, featuring All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Milsap along with budding forward DeMarre Carroll, who looked to have the size and speed to slow LeBron on defense.

Luck would even the odds for Cleveland, aching the knees of Horford – who was a step slower all series – and plaguing Carroll with a scary knee injury that hindered his production on offense and defense. Atlanta's forwards were dominated on the boards and gave up far too many second-chance opportunities.

The Cavs are also lucky to get such production from Thompson, who started the season as the fourth interior forward in the rotation. Cleveland almost buried Thompson on the bench, going with Mike Miller in the starting five in the playoffs, but once given the chance, Thompson’s activity and athleticism overwhelmed the broken-down frontcourts of the Bulls and Hawks.

And now, on the eve of the NBA Finals – after a lengthy layoff between the conference finals and Game 1 – Cleveland seems to have lucked out again. At first glance, meeting the top-seeded Golden State Warriors would seem like the last team anyone would want to play for the championship. And the odds would indicate that, with Cleveland pegged as a +180 series underdog against Golden State at -215. However, the Warriors may be the only team that qualified for the postseason that has less frontcourt pop than the Cavs.

Golden State, the top-scoring team in the NBA, finished second last in frontcourt scoring this season, getting just 51.1 points per game from their forwards. That’s only 46.4 percent of their nightly offense. Of course, the bulk of that scoring comes from the hot hands of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson – who combine for 41.4 percent of those total points – leaving the Warriors forwards to serve as glorified garbage men picking up the scraps. Golden State’s big men also failed to clean the glass for most of the season, allowing opponents to pull down 11.6 offensive rebounds a game – sixth most in the NBA. Those second scoring opportunities are what sealed the deal for the Cavs versus Atlanta, averaging almost 14 offensive boards in that series sweep.

Cleveland fared well against teams with lower-scoring frontcourts this season, boasting a 16-8 SU record versus the eight teams that averaged 54.0 points or fewer from their forwards, including splitting its two meetings with Golden State. Of course, the Cavaliers’ spread success isn’t as great – going 9-15 ATS in those games – but that has more to do with being a public favorite in many of those contests. They don't have that problem in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, set as 6-point road underdogs for Thursday's opener.

On the flip side of this argument, Cleveland was much worse against opponents with higher-scoring frontcourts, going just 9-9 SU versus the eight teams with the most frontcourt scoring punch this season (which include basement teams like Sacramento, Utah and Denver). They also finished with an 8-10 ATS mark in those 18 contests.

The Cavs, themselves, ranked second in frontcourt scoring this season, thanks in very large part to James, who falls under that category as a small forward. Cleveland boasted 62.6 points from its frontcourt, 25.3 of those coming from LeBron (more than 40 percent). Take him out of the equation and the Cavs are getting 37.3 points from their other forwards. In the playoffs, that frontcourt production has dipped to 59.9 points per game or 32.3 points when you subtract James' contributions.

On paper, matching up forward versus forward, Golden State has the edge over the Cavs. Draymond Green is the ultimate glue guy and Andrew Bogut is a seasoned veteran with the grittiness to offset the Warriors’ flair. But as those stats above show, Cleveland is more comfortable confining the guards when it knows the forwards don’t pick up the scoring slack.

And, of course, there’s the Cavs’ brand of postseason luck, which should have Golden State’s big men walking on egg shells in this series. But who knows? Cleveland might not need it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of the day: Cavaliers at Warriors

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-6, 202.5)

After a long break, the Golden State Warriors and visiting Cleveland Cavaliers open the best-of-seven NBA Finals on Thursday. The Warriors haven't played since dispatching the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals on May 27 and the Cavaliers have been resting since finishing off the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern finals on May 26.

The finals are being billed as a clash of current MVP Stephen Curry and four-time MVP LeBron James and both players are having strong postseasons. Curry is averaging 29.2 points and 6.4 assists and has knocked down a postseason record 73 3-pointers while James is averaging 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists but shooting just 17.6 percent from 3-point range. The Warriors are searching for their first NBA title since 1975 and Cleveland is looking for its initial crown and both teams are itching to finally hit the hardwood. "We're restless," James said at a press conference. "We don't like this much time off."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the spread at GS -6 before moving down to -5.5 quickly. As of Wednesday evening most books shifted the line to -6. The total opened at 203.5 before being bet down to 202.5.

INJURY REPORT: Cavaliers - F Kevin Love (Out-Shoulder) Warriors - G Klay Thompson (Prob-Concussion), F Marreese Speights (Prob-Calf)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Warriors -6 last week and took nothing but Cavaliers action at that number, so we went to Warriors -5.5 where we currently sit with 59 percent of the action on the Cavs covering the +5.5. The 203 point total is seeing solid two way action with the over getting 62 percent of the action." - Michael Stewart

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Finals is basically a team (Golden State) versus a player (LeBron James). The Warriors have been the best team since the season opener, while Cleveland has caught fire in the Playoffs (No.1 offensive and No.3 defensive efficiency). The Warriors are No.2 offensive and No.4 defensive efficiency in the playoffs. Both teams shoot a high amount of three-point shots with nearly 36 percent of their combined field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. The team that hits more outside shots will probably win this game. It will be interesting to see how the extended layoff affects the team's shooting, especially early in the game. Both squads benefited from the extended rest as key players (Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson) were able to get healthier." - Steve Merril

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: The lengthy break has given injured point guard Kyrie Irving a chance to heal up and his ailing left knee has improved and his right foot is no longer a problem. But despite the rest time, he won't be 100 percent for the opener and will be still operating under the same thought process he did in the Eastern finals against Atlanta. "Just like I said before -- and I'm going to keep saying it -- it's a day-by-day thing," Irving said at a press conference. "Continue to get treatment and do what it takes."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Shooting guard Klay Thompson was a beneficiary of the long break and has been cleared to play in the opener after recovering from a concussion suffered in the finale against Houston. Thompson completed the league's concussion protocol and resumed practicing on Monday and pronounced himself ready to go. "I think it was mild," Thompson said a press conference. "It wasn't really severe but I think it was perfect timing because I got a week off to get perfectly healthy."

TRENDS:

*Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
*Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
*Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 road games.
*Under is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 overall.

CONSENSUS: 55.56 percent are on the Cavs +6 with 63.4 percent on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 6/4 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4: 4,5,9,10/1,3,5,8/3/4,6,9 = $48

LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,2,8/2,7/5,8,9/1,3 = $36

BEST BET: DON’T RUSH (1st)

SPOT PLAY: MACHO MASS (7th)


Race 1

(9) DON’T RUSH, last year’s OSS Gold Super Final winner, likely need not even be anywhere near his best to take this group. It’s hard to see him getting beat here. (2) JA EL STORM was beaten by a very good colt in the City of London Final last Friday and may be the lone threat to the choice. (1) ONTHEROAD DE VIE continues to be one that nabs minor shares without threatening the winner.

Race 2

(4) MUSCLE MACK shrugged off a rough trip in the City of London Final to easily trot away from his foes in the final 1/4. He looks like one with a bright future. (5) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT closed nicely in his season debut and looks as though he has gotten faster over the winter; threat. (9) MUSCLES ALL OVER makes his sophomore debut after showing a bit of talent last fall. He can get a piece of this.

Race 3

(1) BIG RICH takes a massive class plunge for his sophomore debut and looks well-prepped to make an impact immediately; top call. (7) LA BELLA ROSA provided cover for a confident winner that was obviously in a different league than the others in that dash. This one is a threat here. (10) RENEGADE MAGIC took massive support in her debut then broke stride at the start. Many Kadabras bounce back at big prices; beware.

Race 4

(4) MACH MAGIC is the first foal to race out of millionaire dam Illusionist, herself a 43-time winner with a lifetime mark of 1:50 flat. This one’s final 1/4 in the qualifier signals readiness. (9) WANDA BAYAMA ships in for Laroque and is likely capable of dropping several seconds off her Rideau Carlton times; beware. (10) OK HEARTBEAT was pushed to a solid 1/2 then tired late. She can improve off that 2015 debut.

Race 5

(5) INFINITI AS is one of several that ships in tonight for trainer Lorentzon and looks ready based on the late speed displayed in his qualifiers. (1) IN SECRET raced very well off an 18-day break, returns a little quicker here and is a big threat from the inside. (8) BUZZ was driven extremely conservatively when appearing to have trot in the lane last out; he could pop at a huge price here.

Race 6

(3) INVEST IN ART went a big first-up trip in her sophomore debut to shave several seconds off her lifetime mark; call to repeat. (5) BUSINESS AS USUAL was a bit flat in the lane in the SBOA elim but most of these are easier. (9) DG KNICKERBOCKER came her last 3/4 in 1:23 1/5 despite suffering an interference break. She appears to have some talent.

Race 7

(4) MACHO MASS gets a huge driver change tonight for his Grassroots debut and is sure to be a top threat here. (7) ETERNAL QUEST fought valiantly vs. one who repeated next out and is undefeated. He looks like the main foe. (9) GRONK closed strongly in his season’s debut and is likely to be kept closer early.

Race 8

(1) OK HALLELUJAH broke her maiden in style in her season’s debut and this step into NW2L isn’t that steep; top call. (8) ZIP CODE ENVY tried to close from a different zip code last week and ended a clear third. Look for more speed from a little better post here. (2) OOH SHESA BADLANDS has been racing well using varying styles and is likely to hit the ticket here.

Race 9

(7) MUSCLE UP THE GOAL trotted up a storm late in his season debut, which should serve him well in this Grassroots dash. He should show a lot more early speed here. (2) ONE DIRECTION raced well to be second to a huge favorite last time and is a contender for sure. (5) THOUGHTFUL LEADER showed improvement in his third lifetime start and can be along late for a share.

Race 10

(8) TOP DOLLAR fired off a 27 2/5 kicker in preparation for this first Grassroots start and MacDonald should keep him in much closer striking range here. (5) NOBLE LEGEND has shown very little to date, but Christoforou has been known to wake this type up at huge odds with no warning; beware. (9) GO GET BRUCE raced great to win two back, missed a week, then showed nothing. He too is a wakeup prospect.

Race 11

(1) LARJON LAURA closed hard last time but was beaten by one going first-off-the-claim for a top barn. Jamieson should move this one much earlier starting from the inside. (3) GOLDIES MACH has been racing well in some quick miles out of town and should be respected here. (10) ONE LAST BONO will be pointed to the front as always; for as far as she goes. (9) DAPPLE APPLE has been claimed three starts in a row and moves to the big circuit in great form. (7) KIKISKISSINKOUSIN appears to be going in the wrong direction but should hang on for a share here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Cubs @ Nationals
Arrieta is 1-3, 4.93 in his last six starts.

Gonzalez is 1-0, 6.65 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Cubs lost six of last eight games with Washington, with last four going under total; they're 3-6 in last nine games overall. Seven of last eight Cub games stayed under. Washington lost five of last six games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

Reds @ Phillies
DeSclafani is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; three of his last four went under.

Harang is 0-2, 3.50 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Reds lost five of last six games in Philly; six of last seven series games went over total. Cincinnati five of last six went over total. Phillies lost seven of last nine games, but they won last two; four of their last six stayed under.

Mets @ Diamondbacks
Mets lost four of last five Harvey starts; he is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three road starts. Four of his last six starts stayed under the total.

Hellickson is 2-0, 3.38 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over.

Mets won six of last eight games with Arizona; road team won seven of the eight games. NY lost four of last six games; five of those six went over total. Arizona won four of last six games; over is 5-0-1 in those six.

Cardinals @ Dodgers
Wacha is 2-1, 2.92 in his last four starts.

Frias is 1-2, 5.87 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.

Dodgers are 21-7 at home, St Louis is 13-11 on road. LA lost four of last five games with Cardinals; last six series games stayed under. St Louis won eight of last ten games; six of its last seven stayed under. Dodgers are 3-5 in their last eight games.

American League
A's @ Tigers
Hahn is 1-4, 5.42 in his last seven starts; five of the seven went over.

Greene is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts; four of his last six went under.

Oakland won eight of last 11 games but lost six of last nine games vs Detroit- six of last seven stayed under. Tigers lost last six games, outscored by 37-14; seven of their last nine stayed under.

Orioles @ Astros
Chen is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.

Keuchel is 2-1, 1.88 in his last three starts; they all stayed under.

Orioles are 4-9 in last 13 games overall; nine of those 13 stayed under. O's lost four of last five games with Houston; eight of last eleven series games stayed under. Astros won four of last five games (under 4-1).

Twins @ Red Sox
Milone returns from AAA to make first start since April 27; he is 2-1, 4.76 in his four starts, with last three going over.

Wright is 1-2, 4.24 in his three starts (over 2-1).

Home side won last nine of last ten Minnesota-Boston games (under 7-3); Twins won eight of last 11 games- four of last seven went over. Red Sox lost seven of last ten games, with five of last seven staying under.

White Sox @ Rangers
White Sox are 3-1 when Rodon starts (1-0, 4.43); three of four went over.

Gallardo is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Chicago lost three of its last four games with Texas (over 5-2-1 in last eight); Rangers won four of last five games overall. White Sox are 5-3 in their last eight games overall; four of last six went over.

Indians @ Royals
Bauer is 2-1, 1.53 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.

Young is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Cleveland lost seven of last 11 games with KC; eight of last ten series games went over the total. Indians won five of last seven games overall; four of their last five stayed under. Royals lost six of last eight games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Rays @ Mariners
Former Mariner Ramirez is 3-1, 3.13 in his last four starts.

Elias is 2-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; his last seven stayed under.

Tampa Bay lost last six games with Seattle; road team won eight of last nine series games, with seven of last nine staying under. Rays won four of last five games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Mariners lost their last five games- they traded for Mark Trumbo last night. M's scored 12 runs in last five games.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 5-5; Gonzalez 7-3
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 5-5; Harang 5-6
NY-Az-- Harvey 6-4; Hellickson 4-6
StL-LA-- Wacha 9-1; Frias 3-3

A's-Det-- Hahn 2-8; Greene 6-5
Balt-Hst-- Chen 5-5; Keuchel 9-2
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-2; Wright 1-2
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 3-1; Gallardo 5-6
Cle-KC-- Bauer 5-5; Young 4-1
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 4-2; Elias 2-5

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 4-10; Gonzalez 1-10
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 1-10; Harang 2-11
NY-Az-- Harvey 3-10; Hellickson 5-10
StL-LA-- Wacha 3-10; Frias 3-6

A's-Det-- Hahn 4-10; Greene 3-11
Balt-Hst-- Chen 3-10; Keuchel 2-11
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-4; Wright 1-3
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 0-4; Gallardo 5-11
Cle-KC-- Bauer 1-10; Young 0-5
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 2-6; Elias 3-7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Maywood Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$2500 - FILLIES & MARES, NON-WINNERS OF 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME TO BE CLAIMED FOR $7,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 TYPICAL SITUATION 3/1


# 4 GRANTS PULSE 6/1


# 7 GRACE AN MERCY 10/1

The play here is TYPICAL SITUATION. With superior win percentages, Leonard should have this filly in excellent position to win the race. Pace figures fit the bias well here at Maywood Park, look for this one to get the score. Hands down the best slot at Maywood Park is the 5. The win percentage is great. GRANTS PULSE - Seekman is racking up the wins in recent times. Top notch win clip makes this standardbred our pick. GRACE AN MERCY - Take a look at this standardbred's average speed number of 66 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great bet. Heads into this outing with good TrackMaster class markings in relationship to the grouping - could be worth a shot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 12:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$14000 - 3 & 4 YR. OLDS COLTS & GELDINGS NW 3 EXT. PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERENCE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 7 MODERN YANKEE 5/2


# 6 SAMBESTMCKEE 5/1


# 8 WILLIAM H BONNIE 6/1

MODERN YANKEE unquestionably looks to be the fine animal to beat today. Not many knocks against this interesting entrant, let's give him a shot. May provide us a victory based on formidable recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 82. Could definitely dominate this field of starters given the 81 speed rating earned in his most recent gathering. SAMBESTMCKEE - Hard to put finger on it, but favor him for this race. WILLIAM H BONNIE - Had one of the finest speed ratings of the pack in his last competition. I'd recommend using in your bets. With a strong driver, who has won at a great 24 percent rate this last month, this has to be one of the top picks.