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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The PLAYERS Championship Preview
By Dan Daly

I said it last year, and every year before that, and I will say it again next year, and every year after that. The PGA Tour, The Golf Channel, ESPN, and everyone else referring to The PLAYERS as “The Fifth Major” makes me want to beat my head against the wall. It’s not the fifth major; there are only four majors…it’s called the Grand Slam for a reason. The LPGA Tour has five majors, this is not the LPGA Tour. The PLAYERS is an incredible PGA Tournament, in fact it’s in a league of its own when it comes to PGA Tour events…outside of the FOUR majors.

With that said, it is the deepest field on Tour all year and outside of Augusta National it is the most recognizable course they play on all year to the majority of golf fans. Thus the PLAYERS is one of the more intriguing PGA tournaments to not only watch, but bet on...but it’s still not a frickin’ major!

We break down the ten guys that have the best odds to win this week, plus your winner come Sunday afternoon.

Rickie Fowler (18/1): Let’s start with the defending champion. Through three and half rounds last year the guy wasn’t even on the radar. He was six shots back (including one over in his final round through 12) and barely in the top 20 before playing the last six holes in 6-under to close with a 67 and eventually winning in a playoff. Point being, it’s not like Rickie dominated the field or the course in his win last year. Yes, a win is a win, and what he did was nothing short of spectacular, but he caught lighting in a bottle for about 90 minutes last year and I don’t see history repeating itself again this year.

Bubba Watson (33/1): I’m going to let everyone in a very well-kept secret…Bubba Watson is an extremely emotional player. No, it’s true. I know he hides his feelings on the golf course really well and it’s almost impossible to tell if he’s happy or mad but Bubba Watson’s entire round, and tournament for that matter, entirely depend on his mood. Unfortunately for Bubba, of all the regular PGA Tour stops all year this is the one course that can send a player’s emotions into a tail spin faster than you can say “Water on the club face, bro.” And his record here backs that up. He surprisingly has made the cut more times than not, but at the same time he hasn’t even sniffed contention on a Sunday at the PLAYERS.

Dustin Johnson (18/1): As I said when I started. This ISN’T a Major…and that is the single best thing going for DJ in this tournament year in and year out. Unfortunately his record here reads almost identical to Bubba. Not the best, not the worst, just not going to be there come Sunday on this course.

Jason Day (8/1): He is the number one player in the world for a reason and has dominated just about every golf course he has stepped foot on the last 12 months…with one exception. Day shot 69-81 last year at Sawgrass on his way to an MC. With a DNP in 2014, a T19 in 2013 and another MC in 2012, this course seems to be one that simply doesn’t fit his eye. At least so far…

Justin Rose (18/1): The harder the course the more Justin Rose seems to step up. At least that is the case when you are talking old school, more traditional golf courses anyway. The Pete Dye design at TPC Sawgrass not so much. Rose has missed three straight cuts at the PLAYERS and his record prior to 2013 doesn’t really make feel all warm and fuzzy inside either. If you want to bet on Just Rose save your money for a more traditional golf course.

Henrik Stenson (33/1): After winning the 2009 PLAYERS, Stenson pretty much fell off the face of the earth for a few years. But as his form returned, so did his play at Sawgrass. A T5 in 2013 was followed up with several decent finishes in 2014 and 2015 as well. Stenson has the game for Sawgrass and has won here before. Unfortunately for him he has adopted the Jim Furyk mentality the last few years with an almost impressive inability to close. I look for him to play well this week, maybe even contend come Sunday afternoon, but the guy simply can’t close the deal.

Adam Scott (18/1): Like Stenson, Adam Scott is also a past winner here too. His victory however came 12 years ago and he hasn’t contended since. He has also cooled down dramatically since his hot start to the year. Scott has the ball striking to compete at pretty much any golf course in the world, I just think his record at Sawgrass since his win 12 years ago combined with his play over the last month have been too pedestrian to win this week.

Jordan Spieth (13/2): In two career starts at TPC Sawgrass Spieth has a T4 and an MC. So your guess is as good as mine on how he will fair in time on this course. But with this guy, I will always give him the benefit of the doubt. I attribute his MC in 2015 to sheer fatigue. With that said, I think he has the exact opposite working against him this year. The guy hasn’t played a single hole in competition since the Masters. See Rory last week at Quail Hollow. The Masters meltdown doesn’t bother me at all, but the lack of competitive holes in 4 weeks does. I think he makes a charge over the weekend but it will be too little too late.

Phil Mickelson (35/1): Yes he has won here, but it was 9 years ago. And yes, if not for a total and complete meltdown on the 18th hole Saturday at Quail Hollow (where he made a quad) he might be coming into this week off a win. And I know he’s having a mini rejuvenation to his career this year and played 71 great holes at Quail Hollow but the guy hasn’t played the weekend here since 2012, missing three straight cuts, and that is a huge red flag to me. Would it shock me if he played well this weekend? No, not at all, but I just don’t see him winning on a course that has had his number for a while now.

Rory McIlroy (13/2): Rory is dangerous this week. Hell, Rory is dangerous every week. But the way he closed last week at Quail Hollow together with the fact that he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 at the PLAYERS in the last three years makes him very dangerous this week. Basically, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he won this week, so if you bet on two players make sure one of them is Rory. But there can only be one winner and thus the 2016 PLAYERS Champion will be...

Sergio Garcia (33/1): I love this play, and have been waiting for this play all year. I’m not Jordan Spieth 2015 Masters confident in it, but I really like Sergio to win this week. He absolutely loves this course and his record here is second to none. He won here in 2008, which was a while ago, but his last three starts here have been T8 (2013), solo 3rd (2014) and lost in a playoff last year. And perhaps most importantly, like DJ, this ISN’T a Major…and that is the single best thing going for Sergio this week. Take Sergio this week, you can thank me later.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golfers to Bet - The PLAYERS

Tournament: THE PLAYERS Championship
Date: Thursday, May 12th
Venue: TPC Sawgrass
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA TOUR heads to Florida for THE PLAYERS Championship on Thursday. This tournament features some huge prize money and many consider it to be an unofficial “fifth major”.

The host course for this one is TPC Sawgrass, and this is not an easy one to play. Fans will enjoy watching it and should keep an eye out for the iconic 17th hole. It is a very exciting par-3 that is referred to as “Island Green”.

Only six players in the history of the tourney have won more than once here and Jack Nicklaus is the only golfer to have done it on three occasions. Last year, Rickie Fowler took this event by defeating Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner in a playoff. He shot a 12-under in the event and took home 1.8 million dollars in the process.

Let’s take a look at the very strong field that will be playing this week and find a few players who could take the win:

Golfers to Bet

Jordan Spieth (19/2) - Spieth has not played in a tournament since he choked away The Masters in early April. He was dominating that one, but ended up blowing a big lead on the back nine. That should not scare away bettors this weekend, though. Spieth is still the best golfer in the world and the only way to get over something like that is to perform at a high level the next chance you get. Spieth has not yet made his mark on THE PLAYERS, but he’ll be locked in and ready to do so on Thursday. It’s not often that he is receiving odds as this good, so he’s worth putting a few units on in this one.

Rickie Fowler (17/1) - Fowler has had a very good season, racking up four top-five finishes and seven top-10s. He has, however, failed to win a single event and will be hoping to change that this weekend. Fowler has a very good shot to do just that, as he’s been excellent at this tournament in the past. As previously mentioned, Fowler won this tournament a year ago and he also happened to have been the runner-up when Matt Kuchar won in 2012. He knows this course and also happens to be playing well coming into this event.

Phil Mickelson (35/1) - Mickelson has not yet won an event this season, but he has been near the top of the leaderboard on several occasions. Mickelson already has four top-five finishes on the year and he played very well in the final round of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. With a ton of momentum coming into this thing, Mickelson should be feeling extremely confident. He won THE PLAYERS back in 2007 and will certainly feel as if he can do it again on Sunday.

Martin Kaymer (85/1) - When looking for a dark horse for this tournament, it’s pretty tough to pass up on Kaymer at 85/1. Although he is no longer the player he once was, Kaymer did win this tournament in 2014 and he’ll certainly feel some level of comfort when he steps on this course Thursday. His 13-under that year was as good as anybody has shot on this course in each of the past five installments of this tournament. He’s worth a half-unit, as he’d pay off huge if he can get hot on Sunday.

Odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship

Rory McIlroy 15/2
Jordan Spieth 19/2
Jason Day 10/1
Rickie Fowler 17/1
Justin Rose 24/1
Dustin Johnson 25/1
Adam Scott 26/1
Hideki Matsuyama 26/1
Sergio Garcia 26/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Bubba Watson 35/1
Danny Willett 35/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Patrick Reed 45/1
Billy Horschel 60/1
Louis Oosthuizen 60/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Chris Kirk 65/1
Brandt Snedeker 75/1
David Lingmerth 75/1
Matt Kuchar 75/1
Paul Casey 75/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Brooks Koepka 85/1
Kevin Kisner 85/1
Martin Kaymer 85/1
Byeong-Hun An 90/1
Russell Knox 100/1
Bill Haas 110/1
Danny Lee 110/1
J.B. Holmes 110/1
Justin Thomas 110/1
Luke Donald 110/1
Jimmy Walker 120/1
Marc Leishman 120/1
Bernd Wiesberger 140/1
Charles Howell III 140/1
Jamie Lovemark 140/1
Kevin Chappell 140/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 140/1
Patton Kizzire 140/1
Russell Henley 140/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 150/1
Jason Dufner 160/1
Jim Furyk 160/1
Smylie Kaufman 160/1
Francesco Molinari 170/1
Andy Sullivan 180/1
Kevin Streelman 180/1
Tony Finau 180/1
John Senden 190/1
Patrick Rodgers 200/1
Ryan Palmer 200/1
Shane Lowry 200/1
Chesson Hadley 210/1
Emiliano Grillo 220/1
Harris English 220/1
K.J. Choi 220/1
Martin Laird 220/1
Ryan Moore 220/1
Brendan Steele 230/1
Graeme McDowell 230/1
Ian Poulter 240/1
Gary Woodland 250/1
Graham Delaet 250/1
James Hahn 250/1
Jason Kokrak 250/1
Keegan Bradley 250/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250/1
Retief Goosen 250/1
Ben Martin 300/1
Chez Reavie 300/1
Daniel Summerhays 300/1
Harold Varner III 300/1
Jhonattan Vegas 300/1
Scott Piercy 300/1
Soren Kjeldsen 300/1
Webb Simpson 300/1
Will Wilcox 300/1
William McGirt 300/1
Brian Harman 350/1
Cameron Tringale 350/1
Hunter Mahan 350/1
Jonas Blixt 350/1
Robert Streb 350/1
Fabian Gomez 400/1
George McNeill 400/1
Johnson Wagner 400/1
Matt Jones 400/1
Padraig Harrington 400/1
Sean OHair 400/1
Scott Brown 450/1
Si Woo Kim 450/1
Zac Blair 450/1
Adam Hadwin 500/1
Alex Cejka 500/1
Andres Gonzales 500/1
Bernhard Langer 500/1
Boo Weekley 500/1
Brendon Todd 500/1
Brendon de Jonge 500/1
Brian Stuard 500/1
Bryce Molder 500/1
Camilo Villegas 500/1
Carl Pettersson 500/1
Carlos Ortiz 500/1
Chad Campbell 500/1
Chad Collins 500/1
Chris Stroud 500/1
Colt Knost 500/1
David Hearn 500/1
Davis Love III 500/1
Erik Compton 500/1
Ernie Els 500/1
Freddie Jacobson 500/1
Greg Owen 500/1
Hudson Swafford 500/1
J.J. Henry 500/1
Jason Bohn 500/1
Jason Gore 500/1
Jeff Overton 500/1
Jerry Kelly 500/1
Jim Herman 500/1
John Huh 500/1
Jon Curran 500/1
Ken Duke 500/1
Kyle Reifers 500/1
Mark Wilson 500/1
Matt Every 500/1
Morgan Hoffmann 500/1
Nick Taylor 500/1
Peter Malnati 500/1
Ricky Barnes 500/1
Scott Pinckney 500/1
Shawn Stefani 500/1
Spencer Levin 500/1
Steve Wheatcroft 500/1
Steven Bowditch 500/1
Troy Merritt 500/1
Vaughn Taylor 500/1
Vijay Singh 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TPC Sawgrass has plenty of tricks and traps in store for PLAYERS Championship bettors
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour heads back to Florida for THE PLAYERS Championship from TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) this week. This is the 35th year that Sawgrass has hosted and it’s a true test of all parts of the game.

Rickie Fowler is the defending champion. He made a miraculous comeback by closing 6-under par over the last six holes to catch Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner to join the three-hole aggregate playoff where he was tied with Kisner and then birdied No. 17 to win in sudden death.

The three big favorites are Rory McIlroy at +735, Jordan Spieth at +890 and Jason Day at +1,090 but all bring in unfavorable vibes.

McIlroy has not won on the PGA Tour since the 2015 Wells Fargo, Spieth is teeing it up for the first time since his Masters meltdown (so who knows how he will be mentally?), and Day has not fared well here with only two Top 20s in five starts with three missed cuts. Fowler is +1,600 and it’s a big dropoff after that so there’s a ton of value past the top four.

While a lot of the current regular stops on tour value experience, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National are arguably the two biggest venues where experience matters the most. Check out this stat from the PGA Tour: the average number of starts before a victory here is just over seven.

So just like Augusta National, it takes a few years to win here, not including the 2002 win by Craig Perks. Last year for instance, this was the sixth start for Fowler at Sawgrass.

Four years ago, Sawgrass played to a 72.47 which was fifth highest among the 20 par 72's. Three years ago, it was close to the same at +0.323 strokes to par while two years ago it came in very slightly easier at +0.155 strokes to par. Last year saw very similar results.

If you’re looking for a bomber to win, don’t even bother. The last time a winner was ranked in the Top 10 in driving distance was 2004 with Adam Scott. Conversely, five of the past 11 champions have been ranked in the Top 10 in driving accuracy.

When you think of TPC Sawgrass, you think of the 17th island par three - arguably the scariest 130-something shot in golf. It’s definitely a risk-reward hole and getting out of there with a par is huge going into No. 18.

Why?

The 18th at Sawgrass is the second-toughest closing hole on tour going back to 1983. We have seen many PLAYERS won and lost on these final two holes and that’s what it should all be about. Fowler proved that point last year.

With this being such a prestigious tournament, the field is full of big names with 46 of the Top 50 in the OWGR in play this week with Lee Westwood and Charl Schwartzel being two of the notable absences. Additionally, 11 past PLAYERS champions are here along with 30 major winners in attendance.

That talent-rich field makes for competitive finishes. The last time a winner won by more than two strokes was 2009 when Henrik Stenson won by four strokes over Ian Poulter. We should once again see a great Sunday finish.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 Players to Watch: The Players Championship
By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange

1. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- Hoping to ride the momentum from his closing 4-under-par 66 in the Wells Fargo Championship, which left him in a tie for fourth, McIlroy aims to win the Players Championship for the first time and claim his first victory since the DP World Tour Championship-Dubai in November. It is not that he is playing badly, as he has four top-10 finishes in his last five outings on the PGA Tour and six on both major tours this season. McIlroy will be making his seventh start at TPC Sawgrass. After missing the cut in the first three, he tied for eighth in 2014, tied for sixth the following year and tied for eighth again last year, playing the Stadium Course in 24 under par in those 12 rounds.

2. Jordan Spieth, United States -- Returning to the PGA Tour for the first time since his final-round meltdown in the Masters, where he squandered a four-stroke lead early on the back nine and tied for second, Spieth claims he has no mental scars. Although he has six top-10 finishes this season, he has not played his best golf since winning the Hyundai Tournament of Champions by eight strokes in January. Despite being 22, he might have worn himself down by flying off to play in Abu Dhabi, where he tied for fifth, and to Singapore, where he finished second. Spieth is making his third appearance in the Players, and after tying for fourth in 2014, when he lost the lead with a closing 74, he shot 75-72--147 to miss the cut by three strokes last year.

3. Rickie Fowler, United States -- Trying to become the first golfer to successfully defend his title in the Players Championship, Fowler will try to forget his final-round 74 last week in the Wells Fargo Championship, which dropped him from the 54-hole lead to a tie for fourth. Despite that hiccup, he has played very well this year, with seven results in the top 10, including his sixth career victory in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship. Fowler will tee it up for the seventh time at TPC Sawgrass. Last year, he authored the greatest finish in tournament history, playing the last four holes of regulation in birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie to get into a playoff with Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia. Fowler added two more birdies, the last one making him a winner on the fourth extra hole.

4. Jason Day, Australia -- The top player in the World Golf Rankings leads the PGA Tour with eight victories since 2014, including five last year and two this season, but he has yet to completely figure out the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. Day is making his sixth start in the Players Championship, and he has missed the cut three times, including last year, when he followed a 69 with an 81 -- the second highest score of his career. His best result in the so-called "Fifth Major" was a tie for sixth in 2011, when he closed with a 4-under-par 68 that is his best score in the tournament. After his tie for fifth in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans two weeks ago, Day has finished outside the top 10 only once in his last five events, a stretch that includes two victories.

5. Sergio Garcia, Spain -- The Spaniard will tee it up in the Players Championship for the 17th consecutive year, and he has a stellar record at TPC Sawgrass, with six top-10 finishes that include a victory in 2008. Garcia, who has finished in the top 10 each of the last three years on the Stadium Course, closed with a 71 in difficult conditions eight years ago to get into a playoff with Paul Goydos. After Goydos hit his tee shot on the first extra hole into the water at the infamous 17th hole en route to a double-bogey 5, Garcia drilled his tee shot to within 4 feet and two-putted for a winning par. Last year, he lost in a playoff to Rickie Fowler. Garcia has three top-10 finishes this year, but the only one on the PGA Tour was second in the Honda Classic.

6. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Even though he has not won since the 2013 Open Championship, Mickelson is playing well this season, with four finishes in the top five. He finished with a 6-under-par 66 last week to tie for fourth in the Wells Fargo Championship, and he hopes that form will carry over to his 19th start in the Players Championship. Mickelson has missed the cut the last three years at TPC Sawgrass, and he has only three top-10 finishes on the Stadium Course, but he won the tournament in 2007 by two strokes over Sergio Garcia. That year, he took a three-stroke lead to the final hole of regulation and could afford to make his only bogey of the week. Mickelson had another chance to win in 2004, but he tied for third, four shots behind winner Adam Scott of Australia.

7. Danny Willett, England -- The Masters champion is playing for the first time since taking advantage of Jordan Spieth's collapse to claim the Green Jacket with a 5-under-par 67 that gave him a three-stroke victory. While Willett's victory came as a surprise to many in the United States, it was his fourth title in the last two seasons, the others coming on the European Tour. He also tied for third in both the WGC-HSBC Champions and the WGC-Cadillac Championship this season, showing he has what it takes in big events against strong fields. Willett will be playing in his first event as a full-fledged PGA Tour member this week at the Players Championship, where he shot 72-74--146 and missed the cut by two shots in his first appearance last year.

8. Adam Scott, Australia -- Scott won the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship at the start of the Florida swing two months ago, and he returns to the Sunshine State hoping to find that game because he hasn't played as well since -- although he had a promising tie for 17th last week in the Wells Fargo Championship. The Aussie will tee it up in the Players Championship for the 15th consecutive year, and he won the tournament in 2004, leading much of the way after opening with a 7-under-par 65. Scott came to the last hole with a two-stroke lead over Padraig Harrington of Ireland, but he dumped his approach shot into the water. However, he took his drop and hit a solid approach before sinking a 10-foot putt to save a winning bogey. Scott tied for eighth as defending champion and tied for sixth in 2007.

9. Justin Rose, England -- It has been a solid season thus far for the 10th-ranked player in the world, who has five finishes in the top 10, including a tie for 10th in the Masters last month and solo third last week in the Wells Fargo Championship. The Englishman has victories in each of the last three years on the PGA Tour, but TPC Sawgrass wouldn't seem to be the place for him to continue that streak. Rose is making his 13th start in the Players Championship, and he has missed the cut on the Stadium Course six times, including last year by one stroke at 71-74--145. His only top-10 result in the "Fifth Major" was a tie for fourth two years ago, when he wound up three shots behind winner Martin Kaymer of Germany.

10. Henrik Stenson, Sweden -- The big Swede's game seemed to be coming on strong when he followed three top-10 finishes on the European Tour early this season with a tie for third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and solo second in the Shell Houston Open. After a so-so tie for 24th in the Masters, he missed the cut last week in the Wells Fargo Championship, so he comes to the Players Championship searching a bit. This is Stenson's 11th consecutive start at TPC Sawgrass, and he won on the Stadium Course in 2009, closing with a 6-under-par 66 to beat Ian Poulter of England by four strokes. He also tied for third in his first appearance in 2006, tied for fifth in 2013 and tied for 10th in 2008. Stenson hasn't won since 2014, when he was No. 2 in the World Golf Rankings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour Picks: The Players Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I'm not sure what the most unlikely tournament win in PGA Tour history is, but I feel confident saying that James Hahn's victory last week at the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte has to be on the list of among the most unlikely this decade.

Was good karma with this guy or what? First off, he entered the tournament having missed eight straight cuts this season. He didn't break 70 in any of those events as you would imagine. His scoring average was 73.4, and he was 30 over par.

With a one-shot lead Sunday at the Wells Fargo, Hahn three-putted the 72nd hole to drop into a playoff with another largely unknown player, Roberto Castro. The players returned to the 18th tee, where Castro blasted his drive left of the fairway and into a creek. He dropped the ball on the side of a hill and had a very tough shot with the ball above his feet. He hit it over the green and into the crowd, where it smacked a fan in the head and landed inside someone's shoe! Obviously he got a free drop out of there, but why wasn't said fan wearing the shoes? Castro bogeyed the hole, and Hahn two-putted for his second career win (2015 Northern Trust Open). It jumped him from 120th to 26th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Third-round leader Rickie Fowler struggled to a 74 on Sunday and finished tied for fourth with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Andre Loupe. Justin Rose had the lead as late as the 13th hole on Sunday but finished one shot out of the playoff in third.

I know of Hahn but obviously I didn't pick him to win last week. My value pick was Mickelson at +2500. I did get him at +240 for a Top 10 at a course he always plays well at, and also got McIlroy at -200 for a Top 10. I hit on McIlroy (-140) over Fowler (+110), Fowler (-125) over Adam Scott (-105), Rose (-110) over Henrik Stenson (-120), Mickelson (-120) over J.B. Holmes (-110), Paul Casey (-115) over Bryson DeChambeau (-115), and Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Patrick Reed (-115). So pretty solid.

This week the Tour heads back to Florida for the "fifth major," the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, a course I have had the pleasure of playing in Ponte Vedra Beach. Alas, Tiger Woods isn't making his 2016 debut here despite some rumors to the contrary. I'd expect to see him at the Memorial early next month. He has won the Tour's flagship event twice, most recently in 2013. But it's a spectacular field with 29 of the world's Top 30 players. A total of 102 of the 144 players in the field have won on the PGA Tour in their careers.

The big story line this week will be world No. 2 Jordan Spieth, who tees it up for the first time since his Masters meltdown. Danny Willett also makes his first PGA Tour start since winning at Augusta. The defending champion is Fowler. He erased a five-shot deficit over his final six holes by playing those in 6-under last year. He finished at 12 under overall and in a playoff against Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner, the first three-hole playoff in tournament history. It used to be sudden death but was changed in 2014. Garcia was eliminated after parring all three holes, but Fowler and Kisner were still tied so they headed back to the famous 17th hole. Fowler birdied the hole and Kisner parred, handing Fowler his biggest win. No golfer has ever repeated at this tournament.

Golf Odds: The Players Championship Favorites

McIlroy is the +800 favorite. He had that solid result in Charlotte, a fourth Top 10 this season in nine starts. McIlroy missed the cut in his first three Players visits but has been no worse than T8 the past three. That's what he was in 2015.

Spieth and Day are +1000 and +1100, respectively. I'm certainly intrigued to see if Spieth is out of his own head after taking a vacation following Augusta. It's only his third time playing here. He was T4 two years ago and missed the cut last year. I don't like Day at all this week. Great player but has missed the cut here three times in the past five visits.

Fowler (+1800) and Matsuyama (+2500) round out the favorites. Bad news for Rickie: the last reigning Players Championship winner to finish in the Top 10 the next year was Scott in 2005. Matsuyama was 11th in Charlotte and has been 17th and 23rd in two trips to Sawgrass.

PGA Tour Picks: The Players Championship Expert Betting Predictions

For a Top 10, I like McIlroy (even money), Sergio Garcia (+225) and Stenson (+275). If you want to be more conservative, the site is offering Top 20 odds as well. Head-to-head, lean McIlroy (-125) over Spieth (-105), Fowler (+110) over Day (-140), Rose over Scott (-110), Matsuyama (-110) over Dustin Johnson (-120), Garcia (-115) over Stenson (-115), Patrick Reed (-110) over Mickelson (-120), and Zach Johnson (-115) over Louis Oosthuizen.

I don't recommend betting on a guy who has yet to win a PGA Tour event to do so here as it has happened only twice: Craig Perks and Tim Clark. The top American prop is interesting because guys like Johnson (+1400), Bubba Watson (+2000) and Mickelson (+2000) have struggled here of late. Spieth is naturally the +550 favorite. I'd probably go Fowler at +900.

Go McIlroy at +160 for top player from Great Britain & Ireland. For top Australasian, take Scott at +275. I like Stenson at -190 for top Swede. I'm going with Sergio at +700 as my top European and he's also my winner choice at +3000. He is the all-time earnings leader here, winning in 2008 and nearly so last year and in 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 7 - Predators at Sharks

The Predators and Sharks will meet in a decisive Game 7 on Thursday from SAP Center in northern California. Nashville picked up its second overtime victory in the series on Monday by edging San Jose in Game 6 by a 4-3 count, cashing as a plus-105 underdog.

Including that result, the home team has won each of the first six games in this best-of-seven matchup.

Oddsmakers opened San Jose as a minus-175 favorite while Nashville is a plus-155 underdog. The total on this game is sitting at 5 and shaded to the ‘over’ (-115).

Road teams have gone 35-35 in this year’s NHL playoffs and visitors have fared very well historically in the Stanley Cup postseason.

There have been 164 all-time Game 7’s in the NHL Playoffs and the home squad owns a 95-69 (57.9%) record, which includes a 1-2 record in this year’s postseason.

Recent Game 7 History

Nashville
2016 Conference Quarterfinals - Beat Ducks on road 2-1

San Jose
2014 Conference Quarterfinals - Lost to Kings at home 5-1

The winning team in five of the last eight Game 7's scored just two goals, as five of those games finished under the total.

NHL Game 7 Playoff History (2012-2016)

2016
St. Louis Blues 6 at Dallas Stars 1
Nashville Predators 2 at Anaheim Ducks 1
Chicago Blackhawks 2 at St. Louis Blues 3

2015
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 at New York Rangers 0
Chicago Blackhawks 5 at Anaheim Ducks 3
New York Rangers 2 at Washington Capitals 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 at Detroit Red Wings 0
Washington Capitals 2 at New York Islanders 1

2014
Los Angeles Kings 5 at Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 6 at Anaheim Ducks 2
Montreal Canadiens 3 at Boston Bruins 1
New York Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Philadelphia Flyers 3 at New York Rangers 4
Minnesota Wild 5 at Colorado Avalanche 4
Los Angeles Kings 5 at San Jose Sharks 1

2013
New York Rangers 5 at Washington Capitals 0
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 at Boston Bruins 5 (OT)
Detroit Red Wings 3 at Anaheim Ducks 2
Detroit Red Wings 1 at Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
San Jose Sharks 1 at Los Angeles Kings 2

2012
Ottawa Senators 1 at New York Rangers 2
Washington Capitals 2 at Boston Bruins 1 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 3 at Florida Panthers 2 (2OT)
Washington Capitals 1 at New York Rangers 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Predators (41-27) at Sharks (46-30)

Date: May 12, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) All season long the San Jose Sharks faced questions about why they could be so dominant on the road but struggle to win at home.

In the biggest game yet of their season, the Sharks hope their playoff home success carries over to Game 7 of their second-round series against Nashville on Thursday night (9 p.m. EDT, NBCSN) when a spot in the Western Conference final is on the line.

'I love our game at home. I really do,' center Joe Thornton said. 'I know it was a big part of the story going into the postseason how our home record was. But I've loved our home game and I love the energy the crowd has been giving us. It's been great.'

The Sharks led the NHL with 28 road wins this season but had a losing record at home, where their 18 wins in 41 games were the fewest of any playoff team. But after losing their first home game of the postseason to Los Angeles, the Sharks have rolled off four straight home wins as the Shark Tank has once again become an imposing building for opposing teams.

The Sharks find themselves in a must-win Game 7 because they were unable to win any games in Nashville this series. The Predators took all three home games, including a triple-overtime thriller in Game 4 and an overtime win in Game 6 on Monday night.

That was San Jose's ninth loss in its past 12 games with a chance to eliminate an opponent.

'Past experiences or not, it's about what's in this room right now and about us,' captain Joe Pavelski said. 'We kind of said that early. This is a different team.'

The Game 6 win sent Nashville on its ninth flight between California and Tennessee this postseason after winning the first round in seven games in Anaheim. Like they did before that seventh game, the Predators packed extra clothes in hopes they would win and head to either Dallas or St. Louis for their first conference final appearance in franchise history instead of home for the summer.

'Everyone knows what's at stake, and we're going to be ready to go,' captain Shea Weber said. 'Big point in a lot of guys' careers. It's time guys step up.'

Here are some other things to watch in Game 7:

TOP LINE: San Jose's top line of Thornton, Pavelski and Tomas Hertl have led the way all season and for much of the playoffs. But those three were completely outplayed, generating just three shots on goal and being on the ice for Nashville's first goal. With a last chance at home, the Sharks may be able to get that top line more ice time when Nashville's top defensive pair of Weber and Roman Josi aren't on the ice.

'This is bigger than one line or on one or two guys,' coach Peter DeBoer said. 'We've talked all year about depth and I think it's on everybody to bring their AA-plus game tomorrow.'

WHERE'S FORSBERG?: Nashville F Filip Forsberg tied the franchise record scoring 33 goals during the regular season, but he has been held to only one goal in this series and two through 13 games of the postseason. Forsberg wasn't the only one struggling to score in this series. Nashville defenseman Roman Josi had taken 38 shots before scoring his first postseason goal in Game 6, the most of any player in these playoffs who has yet to score.

POTENT POWER PLAY: The Sharks have one of the game's top power plays led by a top unit that features Thornton's playmaking, Brent Burns' big shot from the point and Pavelski's goal-scoring. That power play has been a barometer for San Jose's success this postseason with the team converting 9 of 24 chances in seven playoff wins and just 2 of 15 in four losses.

PLAYOFF COLIN WILSON: The Predators left wing now is only a goal away from matching the six goals he scored in 64 games during the regular season. He's already set a franchise-record with a seven-game points streak. Wilson has scored a goal in three of the past four games, three of those Nashville victories.

NIETO'S HEALTH: Sharks F Matt Nieto left Game 6 in the first period after crashing into the net and did not return. Nieto did not practice Wednesday and his status for Game 7 is in doubt. If he can't play, the Sharks will miss his speed but will put Tommy Wingels back in the lineup after scratching him the past two games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Thursday's game

Nashville-San Jose (3-3)
Home side won all six series games; Predators lost last three visits here, outscored 13-5. Nashville's last two series wins both came in OT- they scored at 2:03 of OT of Game 6 to force this deciding game. Preds outshot San Jose 27-10 over last 42:03 of Game 6. Sharks won eight of last 12 games overall; over is 5-0-2 in their last seven games. Predators are 5-6 in last 11 games, losing four of last five on the road; they've won last six times they scored 3+ goals; they're 1-6 in last seven games scoring two or less goals. San Jose is 6-18 on power play in series, Nashville is 3-19. Over is 4-0-2 in this series. San Jose is 5-4 in Game 7's in their franchise history. Nashville won its first Game 7 in last series; they're 21st team in NHL to play two Game 7's in same season.

Playoffs tally: 1st round-- Home: 23-24, Over: 16-17-14
2nd round-- Home: 15-9, Over: 11-5-8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Hockey Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews

Just one team entering Monday has reached the conference finals, and it's a club I didn't think would get there without two of its best players in center and captain Steven Stamkos and defenseman Anton Stralman: the Tampa Bay Lightning.

They closed out the New York Islanders in Game 5 on Sunday 4-0. The team's other top defenseman, Victor Hedman, had two goals and is now a leading candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy. He probably would have won the award last season had the Lightning not lost to the Chicago Blackhawks in six games in the Stanley Cup Finals. In 10 playoff games, Hedman, has four goals and five assists and is a plus-4. In 26 playoff games last year, he had one goal and 13 assists and was a plus-11. Hedman had eight points in the series against the Islanders and helped hold New York star center John Tavares without a point in the final four games - all Lightning wins - in which Tavares was minus-5.


Bolts goalie Ben Bishop had his fifth career playoff shutout Sunday, fourth in the deciding game of a series. That's tied with Martin Brodeur and Jacques Plante for second all-time behind Chris Osgood's five. Bishop also shut out Detroit 1-0 in Game 5 to end that first-round series and two Game 7s without allowing a goal last year. He has a 1.89 goals-against average and .938 save percentage in this postseason.

Tampa Bay is currently +500 to win the Cup and +210 to win the Eastern Conference. The Lightning don't yet know which team they will face. Washington is in Pittsburgh on Tuesday night in Game 6 of that series with the Penguins leading 3-2. The Pens are +300 favorites for the Cup and -120 in the East.

The Lightning could get both Stamkos and Stralman back for that series, although obviously they will be hoping it goes seven games to delay the start of it until this weekend. Stamkos has been sidelined since having surgery to remove a blood clot near his collarbone on April 4. At the time, doctors told him he would be out for between one and four months. He has been practicing. Stralman fractured his left leg on March 25, but he nearly played on Sunday. If those two can get back healthy, I'd favor the Lightning against the Penguins or Capitals even those oddsmakers wouldn't.

If you are wondering, Tampa Bay was 3-0 against Pittsburgh this season, each game high scoring (all at least six goals scored). The Lightning were 0-3 against Washington. The Lightning and Penguins have met once in the playoffs: Tampa Bay defeated Pittsburgh in seven games in the first round in 2011. Tampa Bay defeated Washington in each of their two postseason series (2003, 2011).

The Penguins are -130 favorites for Tuesday's game against Washington. The Caps will get defenseman Brooks Orpik back after he was suspended three games for a big hit on Penguins defenseman Olli Maatta in Game 2. Maatta has yet to return to the Penguins lineup.

There's talk that Penguins coach Mike Sullivan could turn to goalie Marc-Andre Fleury for Game 6 even though he hasn't played since suffering a concussion on March 31. Fleury has been Matt Murray's backup for the past three games. Murray wasn't sharp in Game 5, however, allowing three goals on 19 shots. Fleury finished the regular season with a 35-17-6 record, tying his career high with a .921 save percentage and setting a new career low with a 2.29 goals against average. I'd frankly be surprised if the Pens make a change, although not for a potential Game 7. Sullivan hasn't tipped his hand yet. Murray has played 21 games in his NHL career (he has never faced the Lightning). Fleury has appeared in more than 700.

In the Western Conference, St. Louis can close out its series in Game 6 at home vs. Dallas on Monday, while San Jose can do the same in Nashville. I predicted Blues-Sharks before the conference semifinals and will stick with that. St. Louis is the +130 favorite in the West and +350 for the Cup. And I'd take the Blues over either San Jose or Nashville. I believe the Blues finish things off Monday night but that the Predators force a Game 7, which would be Thursday (same as Penguins-Capitals Game 7).

Awards Update

We now know all the finalists for the major NHL awards. I'm unable to currently find any Hart Trophy odds for NHL MVP but those will be coming. And Chicago's Patrick Kane will be a favorite. The league's leading scorer is a finalist with Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby and Dallas' Jamie Benn -- it was a minor upset that Washington's Alex Ovechkin, the NHL's top goalscorer, wasn't a finalist.

Kane, who had 106 points, is looking to become the first Blackhawks player to win the Hart Trophy since Stan Mikita won the second of back-to-back MVP honors in 1968. Crosby won it in 2013 and 2007. He finished with 85 points this season. Benn was second to Kane with 89 points. He is the first player in Stars franchise history to be named a finalist for the Hart Trophy.

For the Vezina Trophy as top goalie, the finalists are Washington's Braden Holtby, Tampa Bay's Bishop and the Kings' Jonathan Quick. Holtby is a -10000 favorite, with Bishop at +1700 and Quick at +3000. Holtby is going to win this as he tied Brodeur's single-season record of 48 wins.

All winners will be announced June 22 during the NHL awards ceremony in Las Vegas, which is probably getting an NHL team in two years. That could be made official any day.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA playoffs betting preview and odds: Spurs at Thunder

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5, 195.5)

Thunder lead series 3-2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one victory away from reaching the Western Conference finals and have two opportunities to get the job done. The Thunder, who lead the series 3-2, aim to end the festivities in Thursday's Game 6, while the San Antonio Spurs visit town in dire need of a victory to force a Game 7.

San Antonio has held double-digit leads in the each of the past two games before wilting under Oklahoma City's late-game siege. "I hope we respond a little angry, with a chip on our shoulder," Spurs guard Danny Green told reporters after Tuesday's 95-91 loss. "If you want to be a championship team, you have to win on the road. Simple as that." The Thunder surprisingly have won two games in San Antonio in the series - the Spurs lost just once at home during the regular season - and small forward Kevin Durant said another defensive effort like the showing in Game 5 is crucial. "Late in the fourth we did a good job of putting a hand up on shots, making them shoot mid-range and we didn't let them get in the paint a lot." Durant told reporters. "That’s what we have to do if we want to win the next one. We have to play defense like that throughout the whole game."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 3-point home pups, but bettors like the way OKC has been trending and the line has already moved to +1.5. The total has been bet up one point from 194.5 to 195.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE SPURS (73-18, 49-42 ATS, 38-51-2 O/U): NBA MVP runner-up Kawhi Leonard (26 points, five steals in Game 5) and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (20 points, nine rebounds) have carried San Antonio during the series with occasional help from shooting guard Danny Green (six 3-pointers in Game 5) and point guard Tony Parker (good outings in Game 3 and 4). But the reserves have been below par and combined for just 11 points on 5-of-18 shooting in Game 5 and getting better efforts from players such as shooting guard Manu Ginobili and center Boris Diaw are a must if San Antonio is to win the next two games. "We haven't had great bench production," Popovich said after Game 5. "We need a couple more people to help us offensively. That would be great."

ABOUT THE THUNDER (62-30, 43-48-1 ATS, 44-48 O/U): Point guard Russell Westbrook had 35 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in Game 5 and was so superb that everybody overlooked his eight turnovers. "He plays with such force and such passion," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "I think he's doing a really good job of realizing when he gets so intense, so competitive, so emotional, he's doing a good job of kind of bringing himself back together and understanding there's four other guys out there depending on him." Durant scored 23 points on a series-worst 8-of-21 shooting effort in a dropoff from his spectacular 41-point effort in Game 4.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Spurs are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Under is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.

CONSENSUS: The public is split almost down the middle for this huge Game 6, with 51 percent of wagers on the underdog Thunder. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 6 - Spurs at Thunder
By Chris David

Western Conference Semifinals – Thunder lead 3-2
Game 6 – San Antonio at Oklahoma City – ESPN, 8:35 p.m. ET

For the second time in this series, Oklahoma City went into San Antonio and came out with a hard fought victory this past Tuesday. The Thunder captured a 96-91 win in Game 5 over the Spurs as a 7 ½-point road underdog and now own a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference semifinals.

All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook led the charge for Thunder, finishing with 35 points, 11 rebounds while his partner in crime Kevin Durant added 23 points. Kawhi Leonard has 26 points for the Spurs while LaMarcus Aldridge posted 21 points in a losing effort.

The Spurs held a 48-43 lead at halftime and looked like they were going to pull away in the third quarter, leading by as many as 13 points but the Thunder kept chipping away and only trailed by three (72-69) entering the final 12 minutes. Oklahoma City outscored the Spurs 26-19 in the fourth quarter and that’s been the story of this series.

The Thunder was often defined as a team that couldn’t finish games but something has changed for the club in this series. In the first five games, OKC has outscored San Antonio by 31 points in the fourth quarter and a lot of that margin has been attributed to the inability of the Spurs scoring down the stretch.

San Antonio scored three points in the final four minutes of Game 5 and if you go back to Game 4, the Spurs only managed six points in the final seven minutes of that loss, which seems next to impossible for a team of their stature.

In Sunday’s piece, I noted that this best-of-seven matchup has become a game of 2-of-2 with each team pitting their two All-Stars against one another.

All-Star Matchup - Thunder vs. Spurs
Oklahoma City - Points Scored 1 2 3 4 5
Russell Westbrook 14 29 31 14 35
Kevin Durant 16 28 26 41 23
Total 30 57 57 55 58
San Antonio - Points Scored 1 2 3 4 5
LaMarcus Aldridge 38 41 24 20 20
Kawhi Leonard 25 14 31 21 26
Total 63 55 55 41 46

Looking above, you can see that Oklahoma City’s pair has won this battle so far but it’s evident what happens (Game 1) when the double-headed monster doesn’t show up for the Thunder.

What’s also clear through the first five games is that the supporting cast for the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs as well, especially in the paint. Oklahoma City outrebounded San Antonio 54-36 on Tuesday behind two youngsters in Enes Kanter (8 points, 13 boards) and Steven Adams (12 points, 11 rebounds).

While Kanter and Adams have been a nice boost for OKC, the Spurs haven’t had any magic from their role players and that’s something that has helped the dynasty during its championship years.

Danny Green has played well in two games but the team has receiving nothing from Manu Ginobili plus I’m wondering if Boris Diaw (4.4 PPG) and Patty Mills (3.8 PPG) are in the doghouse because they’re minutes and stats have both diminished in this series.

The Spurs’ Gregg Popovich is often considered the best coach in the NBA but for the second straight postseason, we’re seeing a rookie head coach (Billy Donovan) making noise again which certainly solidifies the “players trump coaches” argument.

Despite dropping two straight in this series, the Spurs opened as 2 ½-point road favorites over Thunder in Game 6. As of Wednesday evening, most shops have dropped that number to 1 ½ points.

NBA expert and playoff leader Kevin Rogers isn’t surprised by the shift to Oklahoma City. He said, “The Spurs haven’t performed well on the road in Game 6 of the playoffs trailing 3-2, losing in each of their last two opportunities. In 2011, the Grizzlies tripped up the top-seeded Spurs in the opening round, 99-91 as three-point favorites, while the Thunder ousted San Antonio in the 2012 conference finals, 107-99 as five-point favorite.”

Even though Oklahoma City has won two games outright as an underdog in this series, its overall record as a pup hasn’t been great this season. The club is 3-12 SU and 6-8-1 ATS and that includes a 0-2 mark at home, the loss in Game 3 of this series and earlier in the season to Golden State.

While those stats could have you leaning to San Antonio to stay alive, Rogers doesn’t believe you should ignore the head-to-head encounters between the pair at this venue. “Oklahoma City has won six of its last eight home playoff games against San Antonio since the 2012 Western Conference Finals, but the Spurs have cashed in their only opportunity in this span as a road favorite at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Game 3 of this series, 100-96. The last time these teams played a Game 6 in the playoffs at Oklahoma City, the Spurs prevailed in overtime to win the 2014 Western Conference title, but San Antonio went into that contest leading 3-2,” said Rogers.

Including the outcomes that Rogers mentioned, Oklahoma City is 12-3 both SU and ATS in the last 15 encounters against San Antonio from Chesapeake Energy Arena.

The totals in the first five games of this series have ranged from 199 to 200 ½ points but oddsmakers sent out an opener of 195 for Game 6. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first five games and a lot of that has been attributed to San Antonio’s offense or lack thereof.

Since posting 124 points in Game 1, the Spurs have cracked the 100-point mark only once in the last four games, scoring exactly 100 points in their Game 3 victory at Oklahoma City.

Despite averaging 103.4 PPG at home in the playoffs, the Thunder have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2. Including the results from this series, the Spurs have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 in the postseason.

Prior to Game 1, San Antonio was listed as a minus-275 favorite (Bet $100 to win $37) to win this series at the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook while the takeback on Oklahoma City was plus-235 favorite (Bet $100 to win $225).

The Spurs ballooned to minus-900 favorites after blowout out the Thunder in the opener and were still minus-300 when the series was tied 2-2. Now facing elimination, San Antonio has been made a 6/5 underdog (Bet $100 to win $120) while the Thunder are a 5/7 favorite (Bet $100 to win $71) to advance.

If you like to lean to historical numbers in your handicapping, then Oklahoma City would get the nod in this situation. Since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City, the Thunder have held a 3-2 series lead in the playoffs four times and they won all four of those best-of-seven matchups. Make a note that Oklahoma City closed out three of those series in six games while only being forced to a Game 7 once.

And, the Spurs have rallied from a 3-2 deficit only once in their playoff history which occurred in 2008 when they beat the New Orleans Hornets.

If San Antonio stays alive, Game 7 will take place on Sunday from the AT&T Center.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spurs (67-15) at Thunder (55-27)

Date: May 12, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Father Time can be awfully sneaky.

San Antonio forward Tim Duncan turned 40 last month, and the basketball world marveled at his accomplishments. Sure, his minutes were scaled back this season, but he played a significant role in helping the Spurs have their best regular season ever.

Suddenly, though, Duncan looks his age.

He has struggled in the past two games of the Western Conference semifinals against Oklahoma City's young front line featuring Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. In Game 4, the 15-time All-Star, five-time NBA champion and three-time Finals MVP went scoreless in 12 minutes, committed four fouls in the first half and did not play in the fourth quarter. In Game 5, Duncan was 1 for 6 from the field and scored five points in 28 minutes.

Duncan likely will need to play more like his former self Thursday night in Oklahoma City if the Spurs are to extend their season, and perhaps his career. Duncan has a player option for next season, and he hasn't made it clear what he will do.

When asked what he was doing to be effective against Duncan, Adams said 'Nothing,' perhaps not wanting to give the future Hall of Famer any additional motivation.

Adams and Kanter also have slowed LaMarcus Aldridge, who averaged 39.5 points on 75 percent shooting the first two games. That has dropped to 21.3 points per contest on 36.7 percent shooting the last three.

'He had a lot of open looks,' teammate Kawhi Leonard said of Aldridge after a 95-91 loss in Game 5 on Tuesday. 'They just didn't fall. It's basketball. Once we play the right way and get the shots we take and play hard, that's all we could do.'

Adams, a 7-foot center from New Zealand, is averaging 10.2 points and 12.0 rebounds in the series. Kanter, a 6-foot-11 forward from Turkey, is averaging 9.0 points and 7.6 rebounds. They usually don't play together, but have both been on the floor late in the past two games. Thunder coach Billy Donovan said Kanter and Adams have put in the time to make the experiment successful.

'I give them a lot of credit because, although we did it a little bit during the regular season, being able to get with those guys after practice and talk with those guys, seeing them work together to try to play off of each other - they've had to space the floor and work together,' Donovan said. 'They've got a good bond going there.'

In Game 4, Kevin Durant went off. In Game 5, it was Russell Westbrook's turn.

If either - or both - get going in Game 6, the Spurs could be done for the year.

Both have struggled at times with their shots during the playoffs, but there are signs that could be changing. In Game 4, Durant scored 29 of his 41 points in the second half. In Game 5, Westbrook made 12 of 27 shots and scored 35.

The Thunder want to bring their best effort in Game 6 because they're really not interested in going back to San Antonio for Game 7.

'Closeout games are the hardest,' Durant said. 'We know they're going to try to force this Game 7. We can't rely too much on our crowd. We can't be relaxed knowing that we're going to be at home. And they beat us at home in Game 3.'

Even if Westbrook misses shots, the Thunder aren't concerned.

'Who cares about shooting percentage,' Durant said earlier in the week. 'Obviously, we want him to - in a perfect world, we'd want him to shoot 65, 70 percent. But he's getting good shots. It's not like he's getting terrible shots. He's getting good looks. He's getting to the rim. It's just a matter of the ball going in and out of the basket.'

Westbrook is a major reason the Thunder are hurting the Spurs on the glass. Oklahoma City outrebounded San Antonio by an average of 7 over the first five games, and has won that battle in each of the past four. The Spurs feel they need to do better in Game 6 to have a chance.

'Control the boards,' guard Tony Parker said. 'That's the key of the series. We have to control the boards. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Head Coaching Predictions for Rockets, Pacers
by Alan Matthews

I've already touched on the next head coaching candidates for the New York Knicks . I expect that Kurt Rambis will get that full-time gig, and oddsmakers agree with me as he is the -200 favorite.

Now let's examine the site's odds for the openings in Houston and Indiana -- for whatever reason, there is no prop for the Memphis job. The Rockets and Pacers are sort of in the same boat from where they stand as franchises right now. They both lost in the first round of the 2016 playoffs. They each have a superstar: James Harden for Houston and Paul George for Indiana.

Other than that? The Rockets had Dwight Howard, but he hasn't been a superstar for a while and is 100 percent not going to be in Houston next season. Howard frankly doesn't like playing with the ball-hog Harden, and it could be tough for GM Daryl Morey to land someone in free agency because Harden doesn't have the best reputation around the NBA. You don't hear anything negative about George, who is a much better all-around player. Indiana also has an exciting young player in Myles Turner.

Thing is, free agents aren't exactly flocking to Indianapolis. At least with the Rockets, you have better weather and no state income taxes. Both clubs should have plenty to spend in free agency with the cap exploding this offseason. Then again, just about every team will have money to do so.

The Indiana job came open when team president Larry Bird decided not to renew the contract of the highly regarded Frank Vogel. The Grizzlies are interested in talking to him and he was +200 on that Knicks prop. For the Houston job, he's a +225 second-favorite behind former Rockets and Knicks coach and current excellent ABC/ESPN NBA analyst Jeff Van Gundy (+150). Van Gundy still lives in Houston and is still thought of well in the organization. As of Monday, the team hadn't scheduled a meeting with Van Gundy. That's surprising. He and Vogel are very similar in that they both are defensive guys and have an extreme attention to detail.

Houston already has interviewed offensive-minded Mike D'Antoni (+550), the former Suns, Knicks and Lakers coach. Easily the most interesting name among the betting options is former Rockets player and TNT analyst Kenny Smith (+850). He interviewed Tuesday. If I'm Smith, I'm not leaving the TNT studio, but I might be selfish because "Inside the NBA" is great TV with him and Charles Barkley. Plus, with Morey on the hot seat himself does he really want to tie his future to a guy with zero head-coaching experience? At least Steve Kerr had general manager experience when Golden State hired him a few years ago.

The rest of the Houston options are: Sam Cassell (+1100), Jeff Hornacek (+1100), Stephen Silas (+1800), Shaka Smart (+2000), Chris Finch (+2500) and Bill Self (+3300). Smart isn't leaving the University of Texas after one year. And while I think Self will take an NBA job at some point, he's not leaving Kansas yet, either.

Cassell is an intriguing option. He is very respected around the league for his long playing career, including in Houston. And he, unlike Smith, has assistant coaching experience. He spent five years in Washington and got major kudos from John Wall, and Cassell is currently an assistant under Doc Rivers with the Clippers. Cassell already has met with the Rockets. He's great value at that betting price.

For the Indiana job, it's expected to go to an offensive mind as that was one issue Bird had with Vogel as Bird wants his team to play fast and small (like the Warriors). That would make D'Antoni a perfect fit and he's the +300 favorite along with former Pacers player and Warriors coach Mark Jackson.

At +400 is Brian Shaw, the former Nuggets coach, Pacers assistant under Vogel and ex-teammate with Bird on the Celtics. The lone worry with him was that Shaw's tenure in Denver didn't end well with Shaw complaining to the front office about some players' immaturity. Hornacek, the former Suns coach, is +750. He was fired midway through this season after the Suns started with a 14-35 record, but it wasn't his fault the front office made a few terrible player decisions. The Suns were a high-scoring team under him.

The rest of the candidates are: Vinny Del Negro (+850), Nate McMillan (+900), David Blatt (+900), Randy Wittman (+1200), Mike Woodson (+1200), Bird himself (+1500), Kevin McHale (+2500) and Jim Boylen (+3300). Bird's not coaching again and he already said he wouldn't hire his friend and former teammate McHale. I think D'Antoni is the guy. He basically invented the small-ball offense that's taking over the NBA these days. His Suns teams with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire were beautiful to watch. We shall soon find out if perhaps D'Antoni, currently a Sixers associate head coach, has his choice between Houston and Indiana.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Hey, how about we run the world’s richest race in January next year?

Sounds kinda crazy, but it’s going to happen next year with the first running of the $12 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park.

The race is the brainchild of Frank Stronach, and the race is supposed to attract the top horses in the world, each of the owners of the horses putting up $1 million to participate.

According to The Stronach Group announcement, all entrants will not only be competing for the world's largest purse in racing, but they will also share equally in the net income from pari-mutuel handle, media rights, and sponsorships from the race.

The race would come 2 ½ months after the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the richest current race in the U.S.

Usually most of the horses that compete in the Breeders’ Cup Classic take off the winter and reappear in the spring.

Now if their connections keep them in training for the race, they probably will need a prep race unless they want to come into the race off a 74-day break.

Call me cynical, but I just don’t think Stronach is going to get 12 of the best horses in the world to stay in training through the winter and for the connections to each pony up $1 million.

Stronach at least thinks outside of the box, but much like his energy drink, The Wizard slot machines, and the Sunshine Millions, this ain’t going to work either.


Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 OClm $62,500N2X (1:30 ET)
#2 Montclair 5-2
#5 Fundamental 6-5
#3 Bigger Picture 6-1
#1 Street Fashion 4-1

Analysis: Montclair came off six month layoff to beat Alw-2 optional claimers at Gulfstream Park going 1 3/16 miles for the Clement barn. Now the gelding returns here off a three month break at the same level. This guy has some back class, a Group 3 winner back in '14 at Longchamp. Clement is 24% winners with runners coming back of a 61-180-day layoff and this guy has proven he runs well fresh.

Fundamental stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to just miss by a neck last out in the Florida bred Turf Classic at Tampa Bay Downs off a2 1/2 month break. The Brown trainee was beaten just a length when fourth in the Hollywood Derby (G1) last fall at Del Mar and was second in the Commonwealth Derby (G2) at Laurel Park last September. He looks capable of handling the extra ground and will be tough here as the chalk.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,3,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 Clm $20,000 (4:41 ET)
#8 Just Got Out 4-1
#4 Picture Day 7-2
#3 Time for Angie 5-2
#1 Da Wildcat Girl 6-1

Analysis: Just Got Out tracked the early pace and finished up well but could not get to the loose on the lead gate to wire winner who was taking advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed. The winner was Natalie Victoria, who returned to beat $25,000 claimers in her next outing on May 5. The mare was claimed out of her last race by the Falcone barn that is showing a 1 for 10 mark first off the claim. This gal beat $25,000 claimers in her last trip over the main track here.

Picture Day had a rough trip last out in a fourth place finish against Alw-1 foes. The filly stalked the early pace and hit the rail heading down the backstretch, got checked when stuck in traffic at the 3/8's and was fanned out very wide making up some ground late to finish fourth. She drops back in for a tag here for her second start off the claim by the sharp Pino barn.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R3: #6 Cort 8-1
R5: #4 Soluble 8-1
R6: #2 Country Money 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 5/12 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,3,7/3,6,7/6,7,9/1,3,8/4 = $16.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,8/4/3,5,8/1,2,5,8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,5,8/7/5,8,9,10/6,8 = $32

MEET STATS: 73 - 206 / $461.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 20 / $51.20

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 20 / $32.80

Best Bet: DAYLINER (8th)

Spot Play: MEERSBERG (7th)


Race 1

(3) COLLECTIVE WISDOM was flying late last week but was free too late. She has a good shot to break her maiden here. (7) NORTHERN LAUREN is by a top sire and out of a dam that frequently showed high speed on this circuit. There could be more here than meets the eye with this filly. (1) ART INSTRUCTOR can share here off a following trip. (4) TWENTY THREE RED gets Jamieson for the second time, which can be a potent angle at times.

Race 2

(6) JAGERSRO showed speed both early and late last week and may have found a field she can beat here. (7) GENTLEMAN JIM was out a long way last time which cost him late. He can be right there with a better drive. (3) P C CANTORE brings an unbeaten record from the B tracks but will need to shave a few seconds off here. (1) MARCH is 0-19 but can take a smaller share from this post.

Race 3

(7) DOTTIE chased solid fractions and held 2nd last time behind a strong winner. She looks good to take this group. (6) SMASH HIT, who has been closing quickly in her past three starts, faces easier here and is a logical contender. (9) MAJESTIC PRESENCE had a good recent qualifier and can contend if flat here. (1) MAJOR MUSCLE moves inside off an okay seasonal bow and can better this placing.

Race 4

(8) MAYFIELD DUKE made two moves when second to a sharp winner last time. He could break his maiden in his 13th try here off that solid effort. (3) NOSTROVIA qualified sharply twice, showing good late speed both times; using. (1) DAYLIGHT RUSH was a closing second to a big favorite last time and is another in with a shot. (5) SPORTS COLOGNE has a long losing streak which will likely continue here, but he can take a minor share.

Race 5

(4) SOUTHWIND MONTY was an easy winner last week when he improved his late speed. He can double up here. (7) SHOREVIEW closed a big gap to a sharp winner last time and is the main threat. (1) VEGAS DREAM was 2nd to a promising colt last time and should be forwardly placed early here. (9) BLUE ZOMBIE has been showing good late speed in his qualifiers and will be passing horses late.

Race 6

(8) P L JERICO went a big mile last week when second to a big winner. He looks solid here. (5) MUSCLE AVE comes off a sharp first-over win and is the obvious threat. (3) DYNAMIC EDGE is improving and could take this with the right trip. (9) P C FOREIGN AFFAIR can pass many of these late if he stays flat, which is tough to predict with him.

Race 7

(8) MEERSBURG closed relentlessly last time late to reach up right on the wire. He will likely be winding up from far back here but is sharp and should be a good price again. (5) AMBLE OVER HANOVER goes first off the claim for Menary and looks like a must-use. (2) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT rarely misses the board and tonight should be no different. (1) LISVINNIE faces easier and could trip-out from the inside.

Race 8

(7) DAYLINER trotted his back half under 56 seconds last week now switches to a catch driver. He looks best but will also likely get pounded at the window. (4) KRONWALL was bought in April by trainer Henriksen for himself and he got a clean qualifying line on him right away. He can threaten if he trots the whole way here. (2) ABSOLUT SEELSTER fell just short last time after taking the lead in the stretch. She is not out of this. (6) MISSION MAN looks best of the rest.

Race 9

(9) SINTRA roared home in his lone qualifier and appears improved and ready to roll in his season's debut. (10) MY OLD MASTER closed quickly twice and has a chance to upset here if he is put into the race early. (8) THREE RIVERS DELL was 2nd to a strong winner in his season's debut and can go forward off that mile. (5) MITTNAGE A TROIS can be much closer early here moving to the middle of the gate; can take a good share.

Race 10

(8) KAYS SHADOW was a sharp first-out winner last year and looks sharp and ready for her sophomore debut. (6) ROSY OUTLOOK paced her own back half in 54 1/5 in her qualifier and is the main threat. (7) QUEEN IDEAL parlayed a heady drive into an upset score last time and can share here moving up one class. (5) ITSALLABOUTTHEBASS also steps up off her maiden win in which she was out a long way and kept coming. She should take a piece. (10) SOUTHWIND SHANIA looks ready off her qualifiers but the outer post likely limits her chances to a minor award here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 5/12 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 117 - 491 / $745.50

BEST BETS: 12 - 51 / $51.40

Best Bet: HUSTLEONHOME (6th)

Spot Play: LAWGIVER HANOVER (7th)


Race 1

(3) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY led most of the way but was caught by a pumped up My Tallia Ideal last time out. Mare seems to be heading in the right direction and should boss this group at her best. (7) MY TALLIA IDEAL took the pocket route home to glory in her latest; post hurts but she is very capable of taking another. (2) KAITLYN RAE comes off a sharp qualifier at Pocono that should put her right in the mix.

Race 2

(5) MASSIVE TALENT finished evenly in his last try. Now this trotting gelding moves down the ladder and if a favorable trip comes his way, it's lights out for the rest. (6) HIDDEN IDENTITY did not get the job done as the chalk in his last trip but has fine speed to contend again. (1) HERE COMES NUMBERS was sharp in the pocket for win honors last out at this level.

Race 3

(1) HYPNOTIST is 0 for 10 this year, but this seems to be a great spot for this 12-year-old gelding to make an impact against a weak group. Gets class relief and the rail; down the road. (2) ARTHUR needs a better trip to contend in here. (6) WINTER BLUES rallied strongly to nail down the placing at Pocono last time around.

Race 4

(7) AFTER ALIMONY was on her way to a down-the-road score but did not have enough gas in the tank and held on for third money last out. Pacing mare will most likely be on the engine again and hoping to boss these wire to window. (1) MISS MACHQUEEN seems to be much better coming off the pace, just like she did on April 21st; threat. (3) LITTLE JOKE gets class relief and that should help her cause; maybe.

Race 5

(1) BAD GIRL VEGAS is knocking at the door based on her last start. Mare draws the rail and has the speed to make tonight a winning one. (7) MISS ALI MACH N broke at the start last out, but this mare fits well with these. (5) AMERICAN ALIVE broke at the 1/4 pole and lost all chance last time time, but she has two seconds before her last flop; watch out.

Race 6

(2) HUSTLEONHOME came up the passing lane and got the job done by a neck last out. Pacing mare is in great form and is very capable of taking another one. (5) CANACO STAR has been second best in both of her last two trips to the post. (1) I DO IT MYSELF finally gets post relief and should have a say in the outcome.

Race 7

(4) LAWGIVER HANOVER flashed good speed in his last start and that was his first attempt on the drop-down. Seven-year-old draws the 4-hole and this pacer can get the job done with a fine-timed drive from Mr. Brennan. (1) CHOCOLATE CRACKERS got the job done down the road at Pocono three trips ago and now he is back at Yonkers and has the rail assignment. (7) ROCK OUT showed speed against better but tired in the stretch drive recently; factor with the drop in class.

Race 8

(2) LISPATTY is a very consistent filly that has been on the board in all of her eight starts this year. She stays in the same company and can rate on the engine; big threat for win honors. (1) HEY KOBE is knocking at the door based on her last two tries. (3) SEEKING NIRVANA is 0 for 11 this year but she could make some serious noise in deep stretch.

Race 9

(7) STEUBEN PATRIOT rallied strongly to miss glory by only 1-1/4 lengths last out at Saratoga. He can mow them down if he gets the favorable trip. (2) REAL FLIGHT led every step of the way but interfered with Ohoka Texas N at the 1/4 pole and was disqualified for win honors last out; big threat again. (6) OHOKA TEXAS N was first-up at the 3/4 pole and made headway but could not get to the winner, though he was put up first via the disqualification; watch out.

Race 10

(6) INVICTUS HANOVER has put in two sharp efforts in a row and should be cranked up to put his best forward. (7) COWBOY TERRIER moves down the scale, has speed and Brennan with the assignment; main danger. (2) R CANN needs a better trip than in his latest to make some noise against these; we shall see.

Race 11

(3) SUPER MANNING moves up in class off his wire to wire score against lesser company in his last trip. Trotter does have a fondness for Yonkers and has every right to make it two straight. (4) UNDERCOVER STRIKE has scored in his last three tries and has been in the exacta picture in all of his five starts this year; main danger. (5) ZORGWIJK NOVA got the job done down the road last time around and she is clearly not out of this.

Race 12

(2) ITS A MIRACLE moves down in class and receives the 2-hole. Mare does have fine early zip and good to see Sears with the call. (7) CAVIART SCARLETT did not get the job done as the chalk last out when she tired in the stretch drive, but, hey, you don't win 8 of 12 starts this year by accident; dangerous. (5) BROWN BRINNY closed strongly to nail down the score recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (6th) Altar Boy, 6-1
(9th) Lilikoi, 5-1


Belterra Park (1st) Como Luz, 9-2
(2nd) Ticket to Riches, 7-2


Churchill Downs (3rd) Nachas and Joy, 4-1
(8th) Supplement, 3-1


Evangeline Downs (3rd) High Hopes Punch, 6-1
(8th) Fear the Cowboy, 4-1


Finger Lakes (6th) Me Me Me, 3-1
(8th) Petrocelli, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Rojac, 3-1
(5th) Adios Pelota, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (5th) Untrue, 10-1
(8th) Lookin Forever, 6-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Catlab, 6-1
(7th) Open Interest, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Magical Fire, 3-1
(8th) My Favorite City, 5-1


Pimlico (3rd) Proud Maid Marian, 10-1
(5th) Martini Glass, 9-2


Prairie Meadows (5th) Bombmarito, 6-1
(6th) Gavar, 7-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Our Candy Charms, 6-1
(5th) Spirit Rules, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Royals (16-17) at Yankees (13-19)

Game: 4
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: May 12, 2016 7:05 PM EDT

While the short-handed Kansas City Royals have started to show some life offensively, the New York Yankees' rash of injuries may be catching up to them.

The Royals haven't needed to score a ton of runs for Ian Kennedy.

The former Yankee will try to help Kansas City win back-to-back games for the first time in almost three weeks and earn a series split Thursday night in the Bronx.

Since totaling 16 runs and hitting .233 with two homers over an eight-game stretch, the Royals (16-17) scored 28 and hit .282 with 10 home runs in the past five. They've spent the past six without Mike Moustakas, who has a team-high seven long balls.

Salvador Perez set a positive tone Wednesday with a first-inning three-run homer, Lorenzo Cain stayed hot with two RBIs and Eric Hosmer added two hits in a 7-3 win that snapped a three-game losing streak. Cain is 11 for 25 over his last six and Hosmer is batting .362 with five homers and 11 RBIs in his past 16.

The Yankees (13-19) averaged 6.3 runs over the previous four games before finishing with seven hits and going 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position.

Mark Teixeira might help if he's able to return after missing his second straight game due to neck spasms. Jacoby Ellsbury isn't ready because of a strained hip that has cost him the past five and Alex Rodriguez is sidelined with a hamstring injury.

The Yankees will try to avoid settling for a split of this four-game series while facing Kennedy (4-2, 2.13 ERA), who spent his first three seasons with New York. He ranks among the AL leaders in ERA and opponent batting average (.209).

The right-hander is looking to win three straight starts for the first time since September 2014 after giving up one run over 12 innings in his last two. He allowed four hits and struck out six over seven in Saturday's 7-0 win at Cleveland.

"It's hard to throw shutouts," Kennedy, who retired 14 in a row at one point, told MLB's official website. "You try to put up some zeros, but it's not easy. You don't really go out with that intent. You go out and try to get guys out one at a time."

Brian McCann is 5 for 16 with two home runs off Kennedy, who hasn't faced New York since August 2013. Starlin Castro is 1 for 10 in the matchup since 2013, while Carlos Beltran's only two hits in 10 at-bats since 2012 were homers.

Beltran is one home run shy of 400 for his career after going 6 for 13 with three solo shots and two doubles over the first three games of this series.

New York's Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 4.78) hopes to build on Saturday's performance when he limited Boston to two runs over eight innings in an 8-2 home win. He threw 77 of his 107 pitches for strikes and topped 100 mph five times.

"When I'm able to locate (my fastball) inside and outside and do that, I feel like I'm able to get a lot more quicker outs," the right-hander said.

Eovaldi was solid in his only meeting with the Royals, allowing one run over seven innings in a 14-1 home win May 25.