Who's betting Mayweather vs. Pacquiao?
By JASON LOGAN
“Everyone who doesn't know the difference between a left hook and a fish hook seems to have an opinion on this weekend’s fight.”
That’s the impact Saturday’s fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao is having on not just the sports betting community but the entire sports world, taking a step in Super Bowl territory as a must-see event for even the greenest fight fans.
“They aren't shy to bet it whether it's small-denomination players or the high rollers,” says renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa, who is attributed with the quote above. “Las Vegas casinos and the offshore books have been getting a taste of it all week. There's something for everyone and they are getting action down on the fight billed to be the greatest of all time.”
The mainstream appeal of the bout, has sportsbooks estimating the handle on Mayweather-Pacquiao to rival that of the Super Bowl pointspread. And with almost $116 million wagered on the Big Game in Nevada this past February, that means Las Vegas books are expecting as much as $70 million dollars to be wagered on this fight by the time the bell rings at the MGM Grand Saturday night.
So if everybody is betting Mayweather-Pacquiao, who does everyone like? We talked with sportsbooks and oddsmakers online and in Las Vegas, trying to profile just where the action is coming from and which bets they’re gravitating towards as May 2 gets closer.
Who’s betting Mayweather?
Like most Mayweather fights, the general public isn’t getting involved with the unblemished 47-0 fighter because of two things: 1. His odds usually come with a hefty price tag and the average guy laying $20 on the fight isn’t looking for a short payout. 2. Mayweather is generally despised by the casual fan for his checkered past and enormous ego, and fight fans love to bet against him hoping they cash in when he “gets what’s coming”.
For this fight, Mayweather opened as a near 3/1 favorite and early money on Pacquiao trimmed those odds as low as 2/1, so there’s more appeal with Mayweather in this fight than any of his past bouts, which saw odds climb into the -1,000-plus range. But, overall, it has been the bigger bettors who don’t mind laying those long odds that have been taking the man known as “Money” for this superbout.
“We have one guy that always bets the super chalk with us. And he’s on Mayweather,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties in Las Vegas. “He’s put a bet down that’s well into the six figures and I’m pretty sure he’ll be coming back for another bite. That’s the way he is.”
The general consensus across sportsbooks in Las Vegas, and others in Nevada, as well as online, is that the bigger money – the sharper money - is on Mayweather. And it’s not done yet. With the market expected to move toward Pacquiao again on fight night, wiseguys will strike on Mayweather at the last possible moment before it closes, hoping to get a discounted price.
According to Oddessa, when the books close this fight, the ticket count will likely be one-sided in favor of Pacquiao, adding in all those pro-Pacquiao props available as well, but the overall handle will have a higher percentage riding on Mayweather to win outright.
Who’s betting Pacquiao?
As mentioned above, the casual fight fan has a disdain for Mayweather, and the media has done a very good job of hyping this as a matchup of Good vs. Evil. That’s a big reason why Pacquiao – the so-called “Good Guy” – has been the popular play with the average sports bettor.
When the fight was announced and odds posted in February, instant money jumped on Pacquiao. But talking with bookmakers across the industry, the majority of that action were smaller wagers – with a few large sharp bets sprinkled in. That flood of action was enough to trim the underdog from +235 to as low as +170 at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.
“Most people are attracted to the low-risk, high-reward scenario,” Jay Kornegay, race and sportsbook director at the Superbook. “The bigger money isn’t afraid to play Mayweather, especially this low. But the public will always warm up to the underdog.”
That will be an ongoing trend in Las Vegas throughout the week, especially come Thursday, Friday and Saturday. With the tourist crowds coming in for a huge weekend in sports betting – Kentucky Derby, NBA and NHL playoffs – and also a massive migration of Pacquiao fans from the Philippines (which happens for all his bouts). Sportsbook operators expect 75 percent of the total handle on the fight to come in those three days, and most will be square bets on the underdog.
“I think we’re going to see a lot of activity Friday afternoon,” says Rood, who will be watching the fight from the backroom of the MGM Mirage. “A lot of people are going to bet the fight as soon as they land. If they have a few bucks set aside for the fight, they’ll want to get a bet in and not walk around with it in their pockets. Big late money will come on Mayweather but Pacquiao money will come as soon as (the tourists) get in Thursday and Friday.”
Who’s betting the props?
The prop sheet for Mayweather-Pacquiao is bordering on Super Bowl options when it comes to the online market, which isn’t restricted to the Nevada State Gaming Control Board regulations like Las Vegas.
That means offshore and overseas shops can offer such colorful props as whether or not Mayweather’s prefight entourage will include 50 Cent, Lil Wayne and Justin Bieber. However, props like that have extremely low limits and are more of a novelty instead of a serious wager. That’s not to say props haven’t been a popular play with squares and sharps in Las Vegas and online.
Bets like “Will either fighter be knocked down?” and specific round props and results have taken their share of the early betting action. The longer payouts, like the “Under 2.5 rounds” total which opened as high as +1,600, have drawn square money looking to cash in on a flyer while the Asian market has seen a boom on “Pacquiao to win in the 8th round” (priced 25/1) due to the fact that the No. 8 is considered one of the luckiest numbers with a connection to the Chinese words for “wealth” and “prosper”.
Books are reporting minimal wiseguy involvement in the props, stating the most of those alternative offerings are getting bet by the casual bettors and tourist coming to town. According to Oddessa, the sharps generally stay clear from the props when it comes to boxing’s biggest bouts.
“From my experience and history shows, the high-roller gambler doesn't like to back oneself into a corner with an exact method of victory,” he says. “For example, they would prefer to risk $22,000 to win $10,000 on Floyd simply winning, rather than wagering Floyd by 12-round decision and risking the less $14,000 to win $10,000 only to end up winning the fight but losing the wager because Floyd won by KO or even a draw, where the $22,000 wager would be refunded.”
Oddessa says that with all the prop action tied in, sportsbook will be rooting for Mayweather to win via decision. The worst scenario for bookmakers would be a Pacquiao winning by knockout, which he says “would be nothing short of a train wreck.”
Who’s betting the draw?
The elephant in the room – or sportsbook – is the money on a draw result. Sharps tend to shy away from props but this option has been one of the most popular plays since the fight opened. A draw opened as big as 22/1 and has since been trimmed to as low as 8/1 in Vegas, where sportsbook operators are dreading that result Saturday night.
“It may seem like a short price but it might be the right one for these two guys,” says Rood. “The draw is pretty ugly. We would push all that money back on both sides and pay the worst-case scenario on props.”
Conspiracy theorist have thrown plenty of fuel – and money – on the fire, stating that a cash cow matchup like Mayweather-Pacquiao, which is expected to generate as much as $300 million, would be dictated by those dollar signs and powers that be would force the hand of the three judges to rule the bout a draw match, therefor guaranteeing a rematch.
Rood believes that this matchup begs for a sequel no matter the result and, despite the liability on a draw ruling, he’s like most fight fans and is rooting for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao to just live up to the hype.
