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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's NBA Playoff Action

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+4, 203.5)

Cavaliers lead the series 2-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers are two wins away from a trip to the Eastern Conference semifinals and appear to have the Boston Celtics on the ropes. The Celtics will try to steal a game in the best-of-seven series when they host the Cavaliers in Game 3 on Thursday.

Boston showed flashes of being able to keep up with No. 2 seed Cleveland in the first two games but has had no answer for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving down the stretch. “I’ve been in this moment before and a lot of our guys haven’t, so I felt like it was important for me to just try to put a staple on the game the best way I know how and that’s by being aggressive,” James told reporters. “I was able to make a few plays to help our team get the win and that’s what’s very important for me – just to be there for my team when they need it.” James and Irving combined to score all of the Cavaliers’ 24 fourth-quarter points in Game 2. The Celtics were 21-20 at home during the regular season, including a 117-78 win over Cleveland on Apr. 12 in which the Cavaliers rested their starters.

TRENDS:

*Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
*Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.
*Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
*Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.


Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (+2.5, 187)

Bulls lead series 2-0

Jimmy Butler is terrorizing Milwaukee and looks for a third consecutive strong game when the Chicago Bulls visit the Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first-round series on Thursday. Butler is averaging 28 points while lifting Chicago to a 2-0 lead and he set a personal playoff high with 31 points in Monday’s 91-82 win.

Butler was at his best in the fourth quarter of Monday’s game as he scored 14 points in the final stanza. Milwaukee knows it faces a near must-win situation but remains confident it can get back into the series. “We lose these two but we are going to fight to get his series back,” shooting guard Khris Middleton told reporters. “We are going to defend our home court Thursday.” Middleton averaged 20 points in the first two games but the Bucks averaged just 86.5 as a team.

TRENDS:

*Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Under is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. NBA Central
*Under is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record


Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans (+5, 203)

Warriors lead series 2-0

The Golden State Warriors put up the best road record in the NBA this season at 28-13, but the most recent of those 13 setbacks came at New Orleans on Apr. 7. The Pelicans will try to turn that trick again and climb back in the series when they host the top-seeded Warriors in Game 3 of their first-round Western Conference series on Thursday.

New Orleans was surprisingly pesky in the first two games of the series but did not have quite enough to get over the hump in the fourth quarter of either contest and heads home in an 0-2 hole. “Hopefully for the fans watching (Game 2), our crowd can be like (the boisterous Warriors home crowd),” Pelicans guard Tyreke Evans told reporters. “When we’ve got our crowd behind us, we’re going to perform, play hard and do a good job.” New Orleans went 28-13 in its own arena during the regular season but Golden State won’t be intimidated. Warriors star Stephen Curry poured in 56 points in the first two games and averaged 25.5 points on the road in the regular season.

TRENDS:

*Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
*Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games.
*Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Dnipro

v

FC Bruges

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN		21/20	12/5	16/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DNIPRO	RECENT FORM
AWAWHWHDADAW​ Most recent​	3 - 2	AWHWHWALHDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Club Brugge are unbeaten in 15 Europa League matches this season

EXPERT VERDICT: It’s advantage Dnipro after a goalless first leg, but the Ukrainians have nominal home advantage with this return match being played in Kiev and another tight tussle looks likely. Club Brugge have been excellent in this season’s Europa League and should not be totally underestimated.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Fiorentina

v

Dynamo Kiev

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV4		3/4	14/5	17/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FIORENTINA	RECENT FORM
ADHWHLALADHL​ Most recent​	0 - 0	HWAWHWHDHDAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Dynamo Kiev have lost three of their last four Europa League away matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Khouma Babacar’s last-gasp equaliser last week has changed the complexion of this tie and Fiorentina should now go on and book a spot in the semi-finals. Dynamo Kiev will have to come out at some stage and the Italians have the quality on the break to take advantage.

RECOMMENDATION: Fiorentina
2

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Zenit

v

Seville

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		7/5	5/2	21/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ZENIT	RECENT FORM
AWHWAWHDALAD​ Most recent​	1 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 1	AWHWAWHDHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Zenit have not won any of their last eight games against La Liga opposition

EXPERT VERDICT: Seville left it late before beating Zenit 2-1 last week, but they should now be able to play a patient game that should suit them. The holders are 12 matches unbeaten in all competitions and that includes scoring three goals in each of their away matches at Borussia Monchengladbach and Villarreal in the Europa League.

RECOMMENDATION: Seville
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Napoli

v

Wolfsburg

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		6/5	11/4	23/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NAPOLI	RECENT FORM
HDALHLHWAWAW​ Most recent​	Unknown	ADHWHWAWHLHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Wolfsburg have scored in 23 of their last 25 games

EXPERT VERDICT: A brilliant first-leg performance from Napoli resulted in a stunning 4-1 success and the return should be a formality. Gung-ho Wolfsburg are blessed with outstanding talent in the forward department and will give it everything to try to retrieve the situation and another high-scoring tie looks likely.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga 1 Fr 24Apr 19:30

Mainz

v

Schalke

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		6/4	23/10	15/8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAINZ	RECENT FORM
HDAWHDADHLAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 4 0 - 1	AWADHLADHDAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Schalke have drawn four of their last five matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Qualifying for the Europa League is a fairly big deal in the Bundesliga so expect Schalke to be going all-out to make sure they finish in the top six, although this trip to Mainz won’t be easy. Mainz have lost only one of their last six fixtures, but powder-puff Paderborn are the only team of the last 11 visitors not to notch at the Coface Arena.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Premiership Fr 24Apr 19:45

Hamilton

v

Motherwell

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		11/10	13/5	11/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HAMILTON	RECENT FORM
ALALHDALHDAL​ Most recent​	5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0	HDALHWAWHWAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hamilton have not won any of their last 13 league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Life after manager Alex Neil has proved tough for Hamilton and they could have been in relegation trouble had they not had a fine start. Motherwell have also had a campaign to forget but they can still climb their way out of the relegation playoff spot after winning three of their last four matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Motherwell
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Phelps allowed one run in 4.2 IP (75 PT) in his first '15 start; he made 40 starts the last three years for Bronx (15-14, 4.21).

McGowan is making first '15 start; he has started 68 big league games, but only eight since 2011- he's allowed two runs in seven IP in five relief stints so far this season.

Marlins won four of last six games with Philly; Miami lost five of its last six games overall- over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Phillies lost eight of last ten games; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight.

Cubs @ Pirates
Hendricks is 0-0, 6.10 in two starts this year; his last three road starts went over the total.

Locke is 2-0, 1.93 in two starts this year; six of his last seven went over.

Cubs lost seven of last ten games with Pittsburgh; over is 5-0-2 in last seven series games. Pirates won four of last six games; over is 3-0-3 in their last six. Chicago won seven of its last eleven games overall.

Braves @ Mets
Teheran is 2-0, 4.76 in three starts this year; three of his last four went over.

Colon is 3-0, 2.25 in three starts this year; sevne of his last ten went over.

Mets won their last ten games, scoring 45 runs in last eight (over 5-2-1); they won six of last eight games with Atlanta, five of last six going over. Braves lost five of their last seven games; eight of their last eleven overall went over the total.

Reds @ Brewers
Bailey is 1-1, 3.03 in his last six starts, last five of which stayed under.

Lohse is 0-3, 10.34 in his first three '15 starts; Milwaukee was outscored by a total of 26-4 in the three games, all of which went over.

Milwaukee lost last eight games, outscored 49-21; 10 of last 13 series games stayed under total, with Reds winning last four. Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under the total- Reds won their last three games.

Padres @ Rockies
Ross is 1-0, 4.08 in three starts this year; his last four went over total.

Lyles is 1-1, 4.50 in three starts this year; four of his last five went over.

San Diego won nine of their last 12 games overall; over is 7-3-1 in their last eleven. Colorado lost five of its last six games, outscored 45-19. Home side won ten of last 13 Padre-Rockie games- San Diego won three of last four.

Dodgers @ Giants
Bolsinger is making first '15 start; he was 0-4, 6.04 in his last four starts LY for Arizona, with three of the four staying under.

Vogelsong is 0-4, 7.88 in his last seven starts (over 5-2).

Giants lost nine of their last 12 games, but won last two; Dodgers lost last two games after they won previous-- six of their last nine went over. LA won seven of last eleven games against Giants, but lost last two.

Cardinals @ Nationals
Wacha is 2-0, 1.35 in two starts this year; four of his last five went over.

Scherzer is 1-1, 2.08 in his first three Washington starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under.

Cardinals won nine of last 12 games with Washington; under is 8-2-1 in last eleven series games. St Louis won six of its last seven games, allowing ten runs; five of the seven stayed under. Washington won five of its last seven games; seven of its last nine went over total.

American League
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Tillman is 2-1, 5.52 in three starts this year; four of his last five went over.

Hutchison is 1-0, 7.80 in three starts this year; Blue Jays scored 21 runs in his three starts- over is 5-3 in his last eight.

Baltimore lost last three games with Toronto, allowing 27 runs; over is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Blue Jays won three of their last four games. Baltimore lost last three games, outscored 24-9.

Bronx @ Tigers
Tanaka is 2-1, 5.06 in three starts this season; five of his last seven went over the total.

Sanchez is 1-2, 7.71 in three starts this year; seven of his last eight went over.

Detroit is off to an 11-4 start, but they lost last two games. Bronx won five of last six games; ten of their last thirteen games went over. Tigers lost seven of last eleven series games, with eight of last ten staying under the total.

Red Sox @ Rays
Buchholz is 1-2, 6.61 in three starts this year; six of his last seven went over.

Odorizzi is 2-1, 1.74 in three starts this year; four of his last six went over.

Red Sox won three of last four games with Tampa Bay with combined score of 28-11; they've lost four of last six games overall, with nine of last 12 going over. Rays lost five of last seven games; five of the seven went over.

A's @ Angels
Chavez is making first '15 start; he started 21 games (8-8, 3.45) LY. He hasn't allowed a run in 6.2 IP in four relief stints this year.

Tropeano was 1-3, 4.57 in four starts for Houston LY; he allowed five runs in 11 IP in two AAA starts this season.

Oakland lost eight of last eleven games with Angels- six of last seven went over total. LA lost eight of last 12 games overall, are 1-5 at home. Oakland lost four of its last seven games overall.

Royals @ White Sox
Ventura is 2-1, 4.80 in three starts this year; seven of his last nine went over.

Sale is 2-0, 2.25 in two starts this year; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine.

Kansas City won seven of last eight games with Chicago; seven of last nine series games went over. Royals won three of last four games overall; under is 3-1-1 in their last five. White Sox won four of last five home games.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Mia-Phil: Phelps 0-1; McGowan 0-0
Stl-Wsh: Wacha 2-0; Scherzer 2-1
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 2-0; Locke 2-0
Atl-NY: Teheran 3-0; Colon 3-0
Cin-Mil: Bailey 0-1; Lohse 0-3
SD-Col: Ross 2-1; Lyles 1-2
LA-SF: Bolsinger 0-0; Vogelsong 0-1

Blt-Tor: Tillman 2-1; Hutchison 2-1
NY-Det: Tanaka 2-1; Sanchez 1-2
Bos-TB: Buchholz 1-2; Odorizzi 2-1
A's-LAA: Chavez 0-0; Tropeano 0-0
KC-Chi: Ventura 2-1; Sale 2-0

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Mia-Phil: Phelps 0-1; McGowan 0-0
Stl-Wsh: Wacha 2-2; Scherzer 0-3
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 1-2; Locke 1-2
Atl-NY: Teheran 1-3; Colon 1-3
Cin-Mil: Bailey 1-1; Lohse 2-3
SD-Col: Ross 0-3; Lyles 0-3
LA-SF: Bolsinger 0-0; Vogelsong 0-1

Blt-Tor: Tillman 1-3; Hutchison 1-3
NY-Det: Tanaka 0-3; Sanchez 1-3
Bos-TB: Buchholz 1-3; Odorizzi 0-3
A's-LAA: Chavez 0-0; Tropeano 0-0
KC-Chi: Ventura 1-3; Sale 1-2

Umpires
Mia-Phil-- Five of last six Nauert games stayed under.
StL-Wsh-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Hamari games.
Chi-Pitt-- Road team won seven of last eight Danley games.
Atl-NY-- Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven Baker games.
Cin-Mil-- Five of last seven Hernandez games stayed under.
SD-Colo-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Gibson games.
LA-SF-- Home side won seven of last nine Gonzalez games.

Balt-Tor-- Underdogs won last five HGibson games.
NY-Det-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Cuzzi games.
Bos-TB-- Six of last seven Hoye games stayed under.
A's-LA-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Winters games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tour heads to New Orleans

Tournament: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Date: Apr. 23 - Apr. 26
Venue: TPC Louisiana
Location: Avondale, LA

The Zurich Classic kicks off this week as the PGA members head to the Gulf Coast for a tourney which has been held since 1938. There is typically a lot of scoring at this event, with the victors carding at least a score of 15-under-par since 2010.

They will be hitting this par-72, 7,425-yard course with just five of the top-25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings joining the field. One of them is Billy Horschel, who won here back in 2013 with a score of 20-under-par; marking his first career victory.

Last year, it was Noh Seung-yul who also earned his first career win here when he shot two rounds of 65 and defeated his closest competitors, Andrew Svoboda and Robert Streb, by two strokes. It is not uncommon for players to get their first win in Louisiana as seven of the last 10 victors at New Orleans were first-time winners and there has not been a multiple time winner here since Carlos Franco took home the trophy in both 1999 and 2000.

With such a weak field, there will be plenty of chances for some new names to breakthrough while players in the top-20 could dominate, so let’s take a look at a few of these golfers who could perform well this week.

Golfers to Bet

Justin Rose (8/1): Rose has been moving back up the ranks and really jumped back into the scene with his runner-up performance at the Masters. He did have a rough start to the year with three missed cuts in his first five events, but still has managed to rank in the top-50 in driving distance (296.1 yards per, 36th on tour), greens in regulation (68.9%, 38th on tour) and sand save percentage (63.6%, 13th on tour). He has also done a great job when teeing it up in New Orleans with a top-15 finish in each of the past three years; including his best showing last year when he hit 70.8% of GIR and finished in a tie for eighth. Look for Rose to be in the hunt for his seventh career PGA victory when all is said-and-done this week.

Rickie Fowler (17/1): Fowler has only one victory to his name, but he still ranks 13th in the OWGR due to his ability to stay near the top of the leaderboard each week. He has made each of his eight cuts so far on the year and has been turning it on lately with a 12th-place finish at both the WGC-Cadillac Championship and the Masters. He did miss the cut here last year, but has shown promise in the past with a 10th back in 2012 where he was able to have a Friday round of 65 and hit 76.4% of GIR with 67.9% of GIR nailed. Fowler is just itching to reach the next level of his game and it would be no surprise to see it happen at TPC Louisiana.

Morgan Hoffman (40/1): Hoffman is coming off his first career visit to Augusta where he put up a strong 28th-place performance and followed that up with a ninth at the RBC Heritage. That was his second top-10 of the season and fourth top-25 showing as he looks to become the eighth player in the past 11 installments of this event to earn his first career victory on these fairways. He’s been solid here in the past with a 34th last year and a 21st in 2013 as he comes into this week ranked 31st in driving distance (296.5 yards per) and 32nd in strokes gained putting (0.449). His all-around game should put him in line to win his first PGA event and start making more of a name for himself.

John Peterson (50/1): While Peterson’s best finish this year is 11th, he has been able to get consistent results with 13-of-14 cuts made and five top-25s. He has done so with an accurate drive (68.1%, 25th on tour) and great scrambling skills (63.8%, 28th on tour) and is on the cusp of a first PGA win. He has made the cut just once in the past three visits to New Orleans, but the one made cut was impressive as he shot 13-under-par with two 67s on the card in 2013 and finished eighth. Peterson has been playing some solid golf and that should start paying off more as he continues to make it to the weekend.

K.J. Choi (160/1): Choi is a former winner here when he shot 17-under in 2002 and defeated his closest competitor by four strokes. He is certainly not the player that he once was, but has shown flashes of his old self this year with two top-25s and 7-of-10 cuts made. He is one of the best golfers from 50-125 yards with an average distance of 15’7” (7th on tour) which should play very well on the rather short course this week. Choi may have a great chance to surprise this week as he hits a course where he has had some past success and is playing amongst plenty of less experienced golfers.

Zurich Classic Betting Odds

Dustin Johnson 15/2
Justin Rose 8/1
Jason Day 10/1
Rickie Fowler 17/1
Keegan Bradley 20/1
Harris English 23/1
Billy Horschel 30/1
Brendan Steele 35/1
Steve Stricker 35/1
Justin Thomas 40/1
Morgan Hoffmann 40/1
Sean O' Hair 40/1
Cameron Tringale 50/1
John Peterson 50/1
Nick Watney 50/1
Branden Grace 55/1
Brendon de Jonge 55/1
Daniel Berger 55/1
Jamie Donaldson 55/1
Russell Knox 60/1
Scott Piercy 60/1
Bernd Wiesberger 65/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Troy Merritt 80/1
Kyle Reifers 90/1
John Senden 100/1
Lucas Glover 100/1
Marc Warren 100/1
Seung-Yul Noh 100/1
Jeff Overton 110/1
Marc Leishman 110/1
Robert Streb 110/1
Jason Bohn 120/1
Jonas Blixt 120/1
Kevin Chappell 120/1
Bo Van Pelt 130/1
Camilo Villegas 130/1
Freddie Jacobson 130/1
Alex Cejka 140/1
Boo Weekley 140/1
Chesson Hadley 140/1
William McGirt 140/1
Hudson Swafford 150/1
Will MacKenzie 150/1
Cameron Smith 160/1
Carlos Ortiz 160/1
George McNeill 160/1
Jerry Kelly 160/1
K.J. Choi 160/1
Luke Guthrie 160/1
Aaron Baddeley 170/1
Alex Prugh 170/1
Carl Pettersson 170/1
Chris Stroud 170/1
Danny Lee 170/1
John Huh 170/1
John Merrick 170/1
Retief Goosen 170/1
Zac Blair 170/1
Andrew Svoboda 190/1
Brice Garnett 190/1
David Hearn 190/1
Tony Finau 190/1
Ryo Ishikawa 210/1
Scott Stallings 210/1
Charlie Beljan 220/1
David Lingmerth 220/1
David Toms 220/1
Erik Compton 220/1
Michael Putnam 220/1
Michael Thompson 220/1
Robert Garrigus 220/1
Scott Brown 220/1
Brian Davis 250/1
Chad Campbell 250/1
Chad Collins 250/1
Jhonattan Vegas 250/1
Jon Curran 250/1
Ken Duke 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Sam Saunders 250/1
Scott Langley 250/1
Spencer Levin 250/1
Andres Gonzales 300/1
Andres Romero 300/1
Ben Crane 300/1
Blake Adams 300/1
Colt Knost 300/1
D.A. Points 300/1
J.J. Henry 300/1
Jim Herman 300/1
Mark Wilson 300/1
Nicholas Thompson 300/1
Ricky Barnes 300/1
S.J. Park 300/1
Derek Ernst 350/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 350/1
Nick Taylor 350/1
Steven Bowditch 350/1
Tommy Gainey 350/1
Adam Hadwin 400/1
Andrew Loupe 400/1
Cameron Percy 400/1
Fabian Gomez 400/1
Greg Owen 400/1
Jason Gore 400/1
Max Homa 400/1
Scott Gardiner 400/1
Steve Wheatcroft 400/1
Whee Kim 400/1
Chez Reavie 450/1
Jonathan Randolph 450/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 450/1
Derek Fathauer 550/1
Mark Hubbard 550/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrington Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 6:38 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$6500 - H & G NW 3 PM RACES OR $15,501 LIFETIME 5 YEAR OLDS & UNDER


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 DASHBOARD 5/2


# 4 JACKS ARE BETTER 7/1


# 2 DRY MARTINI 9/5


DASHBOARD is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the handicapping team. A really good class horse cannot be overlooked. With an avg class number of 76 all signs point to yes. JACKS ARE BETTER - May be the finest in the field of horses here, showing respectable numbers of late. Avg speed is a solid 76. Have to love a horse coming out of the Harrington Raceway 4 slot. The win percent is tremendous, way above normal. DRY MARTINI - This race horse has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 76 average class figure. Should play well in this one. Had one of the most compelling speed figures of the bunch in his last contest. I'd recommend using in your bets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 9:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$6600 - HORSES & GELDINGS CLAIMING $6500 W/ALLOWANCES KAUFFMAN PICKS 3 OVER 1 SUTTON PICKS 7 OVER 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 ORSE POWER 7/2


# 1 BEACH BOY TOY 6/1


# 5 DUSTY DUNES 20/1


ORSE POWER sure does look ready to dominate. Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 85 speed rating. Has a clear-cut shot in this contest, if he can repeat his back racing class. BEACH BOY TOY - This gelding has the ability to take successful advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this gathering. Had one of the strongest speed figures of the group in his last contest. Must use in your wagers. DUSTY DUNES - Drawing the 5 hole at this track has lead to a much better than average win rate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7530 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 8, 2015 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 23, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 23, 2015 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000, IF FOR $12,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 EL CONVIDADO 1/1


# 2 BOND MARKET 4/1


# 1 MICROWAVE GEORGE 5/1


EL CONVIDADO is the top wager in this race. Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. This colt obviously likes the distance, going 2 - 6 in his races recently. Ought to be carefully examined in this contest if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last affair. BOND MARKET - This gelding is coming back soon to the track. This gelding has been constatntly racing well in his latest outings. MICROWAVE GEORGE - Last time out, this gelding ran against a stronger field. Has run soundly when running a dirt sprint race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Pimlico

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. MAIDENS ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 15 CONSISTENCY 5/2


# 3 MINOR CRISIS 8/1


# 2 SALSALITO 6/1


My pick in this race is CONSISTENCY. Have to wager on this colt with the formidable earnings per start in turf route contests. Has performed very well lately in route races, posting a nifty 82 avg speed rating. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 79. MINOR CRISIS - Has to be given consideration against this group of horses displaying solid figures lately and an average Equibase speed fig of 81 under similar conditions. SALSALITO - Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this gelding. With Hole uptop him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out sharply in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #7 - Post: 4:00pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 113 Blue Heron H.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SONGA (ML=10/1)
#6 BROTHERSOFTHETIME (ML=7/2)
#1 DAWLY (ML=15/1)
#5 CONGENIAL (ML=5/1)


SONGA - Trainer Dibona gave this gelding a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. The jockey has had great success with this horse in the past. Didn't ride last time but gets back in the saddle today. Last raced at Gulfstream carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight assigned in this event should serve him well. BROTHERSOFTHETIME - The recent speed rating of 113 is the top last race speed rating in the bunch. I like to play this angle, a campaigner coming back off a solid effort within the last month or so. DAWLY - This animal picks up a lot of cash per race. Number one in this affair. This gelding gets a weight break of -6 pounds from last race. Could be helpful right here. CONGENIAL - This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Navarro. Better beware this angle. Caraballo and Navarro getting together are a horseplayer's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GRANDE SHORES (ML=7/5), #7 CITY OF WESTON (ML=6/1), #2 PURPLE EGG (ML=8/1),

GRANDE SHORES - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint events in order to play him. CITY OF WESTON - This steed ran a substandard speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that fig. PURPLE EGG - Doubtful for this horse to make an impact with no success lately in a short distance race. This horse hasn't shown much in the last pair of races. Finished eighth in his most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 SONGA to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,4,6] with [1,4,6] with [1,4,5,6,7] with [1,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Keeneland - Race #7 - Post: 4:11pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 KISSED BY A ROSE (ML=3/1)
#8 MARQUEE CAL GAL (ML=7/2)


KISSED BY A ROSE - A pony coming back this quickly after a solid outing is a good omen. Don't often see a positive ROI like +999. This rider/handler duet has done well together over the last year. Faced tougher in the last race at Tampa Bay. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of choice plays. Lasix can take some getting used to, especially for a filly. They usually hit stride the second time using it, like we have with this horse. This filly recorded a good rating of 79 in her last race. That speed rating should be strong enough to score this time out. MARQUEE CAL GAL - That last workout tells me this filly is set for a top race. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is encountering an easier field than last out at Keeneland.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GREELY'S STRIKER (ML=5/2), #4 MY KINDA GAL (ML=4/1), #5 WHY WONDER (ML=5/1),

GREELY'S STRIKER - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance race to be worth a shot at minimal odds in a sprint. One should normally not bet on a vulnerable equine in the next start after finishing off the board following a very long layoff. MY KINDA GAL - Doesn't seem to be worth 4/1 this time around. Pass on her this time. WHY WONDER - This filly didn't do much last time out of the box. Should have at least finished in the money in the last 60 days in a short distance race to be any kind of value at short odds in a sprint. The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - KISSED BY A ROSE - Missed the winner's circle last out on April 4th, but no one pressed her for the place spot. Against this bunch, I forecast a better outing and give this horse the edge.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #3 KISSED BY A ROSE to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #8 - Rating = 2
#7 Desvelo - Fair odds 7/2
#2 Heyaarat - Fair odds 7/2
#3 Innovation Economy - Fair odds 7/2
#12 Perfect Timber - Fair odds - None (but still a contender for various wagers)


Exacta: Box 2,3,7,12

Desvelo has run this far before, finishing 2nd under these conditions one race before last at 1 7/16 miles. He also ran 1 5/8 and 1 3/4 miles, neither on turf. After the runner-up finish versus similar on March 7, his trainer mistakenly thought he was good enough to run in the Grade 2 Pan American Stakes, but he finished 7th. Back where he belongs and with the same jockey (Serpa) in the saddle who rode him to that runner-up finish last month, as well as to his last win, last June on the turf in New Jersey, Desvelo could be a strong factor here and perhaps at high odds as he usually gets ignored by the bettors.

Heyaarat fits absolutely perfectly at this condition, having just won at the one lower NW1X level. That win on 3/15 followed 8 months off so he should be even stronger today and with a running style that suggests he'll be 1st or 2nd in the early stages, saving ground from his inside post, he likely won't have the issue of potential traffic trouble to face some of the others will.

Innovation Economy also won at the NW1X level when last seen, but his win came in November compared to last month for Hayaarat. He won easily by 6 at a mile and three-eighths and his trainer is exceptional at bringing horses back from long layoffs as if they had never been away so he could easily pick up where he left off last fall.

Perfect Timber is a stakes placed runner who has a class edge and a recency cloud. He returns from 7 months off, last fall having run in four straight graded stakes, two at the top grade 1 level. He missed by a nose at this 12 furlong trip in one of them so should run well. HOWEVER, when making his 2014 debut, following a layoff since the previous fall (just like he's doing today) and at this level, he finished 8th with no excuse at low odds. He has a big campaign ahead of him with much more important races to run so his trainer may just be using this as a race to get him into shape. There's no way to know, but if he does run to his ability he can win so he's not tossed out as a contender here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 2:18 PM EASTERN POST


The Memories of Silver Stakes

8½ FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#5 CONSUMER CREDIT
#2 PINE NEEDLES
#6 COLOUR PARTY
#4 KAWFEE FA MARFA

Well folks ... this is the first running of this stakes event named to honor the career of Winter Memorieswho as a two-year-old, she won the Miss Grillo Stakes and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Next year, she returned with the win in the Appalachian Stakes, the Sands Point Stakes, the Lake George Stakes, and the Garden City Stakes. As a four-year-old, she won the Beaugay Stakes and the Diana Stakes. She is now retired and living at Darby Dan Farm.

Owned and breed by Phillips Racing Partnership, she is trained by James J. Toner. Winter Memories has been ridden by Jose Lezcano until she lost in the Lake Placid Stakes when he was replaced with Javier Castellano. Winter Memories was sired by El Prado, who also sired Paddy O'Prado. She is out of Silver Hawk mare Memories Of Silver. Here in the initial running of the stakes test, #5 CONSUMER CREDIT, takes a slight class drop (-1), is the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in five straight starts, with her last four "board hit efforts, including a trio of wins, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

We are just over a week away from the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby, and the final field is taking shape, with the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert holding a strong hand.

Baffert trains the two early betting favorites. American Pharoah remains the favorite at 3-1 while his stablemate Dortmund is the co-second choice with Carpe Diem at 9-2.

After knocking down longshots Super Saver ($18.00) and Animal Kingdom ($43.80) back to back with my top picks in 2010 and 2011, I have come up short in the past three years.

The last two winners were the betting favorites. Orb returned $12.80 in 2013 and California Chrome returned just $7.00 last year.

The average payoff going back three decades is $28, and I have to admit as good as American Pharoah has looked trouncing his foes in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) it is going to be tough to take 5-2 or 3-1 in a 20-horse field.

Along with Dortmund and Carpe Diem, the trio has separated themselves as the major players for the Run for the Roses.

The fourth choice is UAE Derby (G2) victor Mubtaahij, who will be making his U.S. debut for one of the world’s best trainers in Mike DeKock. However, does the 10-1 current price seem fair?

Frosted, who won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct may end up the “wise guy” horse on Derby Day. The colt misfired in his fourth place finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has him back on track.

McLaughlin is 0 for 4 with his Derby starters but nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history with Closing Argument running second in 2005 at odds of 71-1.

We still have plenty to look at over the next few days as Derby contenders start putting in their final works. I will have my full Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day reports posted next Thursday.

Early Kentucky Derby Betting Odds:

American Pharoah 3-1
Carpe Diem 9-2
Dortmund 9-2
Mubtaahij 10-1
Materiality 12-1
International Star 14-1
Upstart 14-1
Frosted 16-1
Firing Line 18-1
El Kabeir 26-1
Itsaknockout 32-1
Bolo 35-1
Far Right 35-1
Keen Ice 35-1
Danzig Moon 38-1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 40-1
War Story 40-1
Madefromlucky 45-1
Frammento 50-1
Mr Z 50-1
Stanford 65-1
Tencendur 75-1
Bold Conquest 90-1
Metaboss 125-1


Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:20 ET)
1 Storied Tale 7-5
5 Sunshine Life 5-1
4 La Nina 3-1
3 Little Bear Cat 7-2

Analysis: Storied Tale is one of two in this tiny field sent out by the Ward barn that is 20% winners with first timers. The filly was a $27,000 Keeneland purchase, by Tale of the Cat (16% winners with debut runners) out of the stakes winner Caminadora ($153,835) who has dropped one other foal to race, not a winner to date. Works including a bullet gate drill at Keeneland and note Pino takes the call.

Sunshine Life also is sent out by Ward and debuts with lasix and the bug Cancel. The filly is a half to four winners. Ward has his juveniles cranked up and this could be the start of what could be a very chalky day.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1 / 4,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (4:57 ET)
5 Here's Zealous 5-1
4 Jazzminegem 9-5
6 Accomplish First 6-1
7 Bar of Gold 5-2

Analysis: Here's Zealous was no match for our second choice last out but we will give her a shot of turning the tables here as she gets a good jock switch from the frigid Arroyo to Ortiz. Last out the mare made a mild late rally to finish third. Chatterpaul claimed her for $20,000 and she has finished in the money in five starts including the Xtra Heat on Claiming Championship Day. The mare always seems to run, landing in the money in 21 of her 28 career starts. Decent value if she goes off near her 5-1 morning line.

Jazzminegem drew off late as the betting favorite to win at this level after taking five tries to beat state bred Alw-1 foes. She earned a career top last out and has run well in both of her trips on the Big A main track. The extra distance here looks within her scope, and she has landed in the exacta in 6 of her 8 career starts. The main knock is going to be the light price.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 4,5 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #1 Phillip 12-1
R3: #1 Been Here Before 8-1
R5: #10 Too Good to B True 12-1
R7: #10 Mark My Style 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 4/23 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4 TICKET:

8/4,6,7,8,9,10/7/2,3,6,7 = $24

LATE $1 PICK 4 TICKET: 2,3,6,7/3,6,10/3,6,9/7 = $36

MEET STATS: 25 - 84 / $105.50 BEST BETS: 6 - 8 / $19.60

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 6 / $0.00

Best Bet: TEAM CAPTAIN (4th)

Spot Play: LEXUS HELIOS (6th)


Race 1

(2) HAPE was patiently handled by Moiseyev last week and was a measured winner that likely won easier than it appears on paper; call to repeat. (1) BRINKERS DREAM put up some big fractions then showed some grit in the stretch when headed and prevailed. Well-bred filly is a threat, obviously. (8) JLS TOO HOT TAJ roared home and closed a big gap in by far her best race to date. She's another threat in a competitive opener.

Race 2

(5) LADYONE was called to win last week but wasn't asked for any trot until the last 1/4. She has upset potential here. (6) FLEXCEPTIONAL tried to leave, but was forced to take a seat and raced evenly the rest of the way. Look for JJ to send here. (3) TYMAL SIGNATURE can't seem to get off the schneid. Minor award likely again.

Race 3

(6) SHESAGAMEMAJOR went a much-improved uncovered effort last week, the first time she was asked for anything. She can graduate here. (4) WARAWEE QUICK was just that on the end of her lone 2015 qualifier, closing in 26 1/5 to just miss; the main danger. (8) BLACK QUEEN disappointed off soft fractions and is quickly becoming a money burner.

Race 4

(8) TEAM CAPTAIN finally let it all hang out in the Youthful Final and unfortunately for him got stung to the tune of 27 1/5 in the third quarter, which took its toll. He should be able to beat this group with minimal effort. (5) SIERRA MADRE drew the 10-hole in his debut and took an educational spin of the oval. He finished well enough to suggest he could show big improvement here with post relief on his side. (2) LIBRADO HANOVER closed rapidly in his lone qualifier and can make an impact here.

Race 5

(4) F TWENTY TWO makes his first start of the year and showed enough in his second qualifier over Flamboro to suggest he is in with a shot here at a price; top call. (9) GREYSTONE MOE dropped, popped and was claimed. The speed he showed that night would serve him well here if he can replicate it. (7) CROWN ISLE made a costly break at the 3/4 in his first start for McMaster. McNair will send him for as long as he can last.

Race 6

(7) LEXUS HELIOS showed good speed in his first start back and hung on to beat half the field. He is a big threat here on or near the lead; top billing. (10) MIDFIELD MAGIC qualified well preparing for this return and could get a good piece if Mayotte sends him early. (2) MASSIVE MUSCLES has been getting checks in the Preferred 3s at Flamboro and should be used on pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(7) TAILWIND HANOVER closed like a rocket in last week's qualifier and looks ready to do some damage vs. a weak group. (2) NATIONALIZE took big money in her debut but miscued. She had a speed-tightening qualifier and now gets Jamieson; using. (3) MYSTERY WRITER showed much better speed in her qualifier than ever before; beware.

Race 8

(6) MAGICAL GEM faced better last year but didn't have much to show for it. She starts the year facing maidens off a nice qualifier where she flew home. These should be her people. (3) LADY PING keeps getting closer to that elusive maiden win and is obviously one of the better ones in here; using. (10) LOVIN KARMA had a useful debut over a wet track and could crack the tri at a good price here.

Race 9

(9) ALIFE TIME EDITION looks cranked up by Robinson to win right off the bat here. Note the eight tick improvement in final 1/4 speed from one qualifier to the next. (6) TWIN B TK showed some promise last season in a limited campaign and also looks sufficiently cranked up by 'O Sullivan here. (3) FOCUS POWER shows a 26 1/5 kicker in her qualifier. It seems conditioner Cass has figured something out here.

Race 10

(7) BEYONCES ROCKIN went a monster trip to just miss to an undefeated filly. Tough to go against her here. (4) OUTLIER showed predictable improvement to win easily second time out. No reason she can't contend here, too. (3) REGIL HURRICANE has been close to flawless so far but will need to find more speed. (10) WAR FILLY likely drops right to the back early, but is sharp enough to vault past most of these late. (6) BET ON HILL is a good one for the bottom rungs of vertical wagers.