SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA +103 over Columbus
OT included. The Hurricanes are so close but so far away. To reach an Eastern Conference playoff spot, the Hurricanes must pass three more teams and make up four points. With seven games remaining, Carolina is four points back of the Boston Bruins for the second Wild Card and has a game in hand. The Hurricanes are riding a 12-game points streak (8-0-4) and has already accumulated 23 points in the month of March. We especially like that Carolina took care of business against the Red Wings by securing three out of a possible four points when Detroit came in looking to make life miserable for them. In that last game against Detroit, Carolina was a 2-1 favorite and now they go from that massive price to being a dog in their own building. Of course, Columbus isn’t Detroit but the Jackets aren’t running over anyone these days.
Odds are good that the Blue Jackets will square off with the Penguins in the first round of the postseason. According to projections at HockeyViz.com, that matchup has an 82-percent chance of happening. The Jackets are very likely not moving up or down in the standings and while they don’t want to limp into the playoffs, they don’t want to burn out either (or get injured) in the final few games of the regular season. They are instructed to play hard and bring focus but it’s a mindset or a psychological hurdle to overcome with the playoffs on deck and the great anticipation of being on the big stage at this time of year.
Moreover, the Penguins are one of the national television network’s favorite teams to cover. Only three NHL teams appeared on NBCSN more frequently in 2016-17, and you can bet that mostly every game featuring Sidney Crosby will be featured in primetime slots during the playoffs. The Pens are also the champs and Columbus will very likely be the first team to get a crack at them in the playoffs so there is plenty to think about for the Jackets besides this somewhat meaningless game and again, Columbus haven’t exactly been world-beaters since its 16-game winning streak was halted on Jan. 6. Since then, only two teams have a worse power-play conversion rate than the Blue Jackets. Columbus’ offense has tumbled to the middle of the pack as well, as it boasts just the 16th-most goals scored in that same timeframe.
All the charts, numbers and graphs confirm that the Jackets wouldn’t be faring nearly as well without their All-Star goaltender. In their last game against the Sabres, Columbus was outshot 42-29 and won 3-1. In its 1-0 victory over Philadelphia prior to beating Buffalo, Columbus was outshot 36-21. In their last three games, Columbus has been constantly under siege by allowing 42, 36 and 45 shots on net and it’s not just their last three games either. Columbus is winning because of hot goaltending and not because they are dictating the play or outplaying the opposition. Sergei Bobrovsky’s .960 save percentage since March 10 is far and away the best mark in the NHL over that time but it’s an unsustainable mark that is in line for regression. Whether that regression takes place here remains to be seen but what we know for sure is that regression is inevitable and Columbus isn’t winning games because they are playing well. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are dominating puck possession numbers and ARE playing outstanding hockey.
Ottawa +152 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Sens have dropped two straight but it's not as bad as it sounds. After back-to-back wins over the Bruins and Penguins, Ottawa outshot the Habs 32-24 in a 3-1 loss in a game they played well in. Last time out, the Sens dropped a 3-2 decision to the Flyers in a shootout, but Craig Anderson’s misplay on a clearing attempt behind his own net with six minutes left in the third gave Philly the tying goal and all the momentum heading into the extra frame. Again, the Sens did not play poorly and still secured a point in the OT loss. What sticks out about the Sens is their resiliency all season long. They usually bounce back from tough losses and rarely go on any prolong losing streaks. Ottawa is healthy and playing well. This is a close-knit group that comes to play every night and we can’t imagine for a second that its focus or intensity will be low tonight. The Sens have a great opportunity to grab two more points and put some heat on the Canadiens for first place in the division. We’ll surely trust the Sens taking back a tag more than the Wild spotting one.
The Wild are in a free fall and panic/desperation is starting to sink it. The Wild will now turn to third string goaltender Alex Stalock in an attempt to stop the bleeding with starter Devin Dubnyk and backup Darcy Kuemper both healthy and watching from the rail. This move reeks of desperation from coach Bruce Boudreau. Stalock hasn't started a game in the NHL since February 11, 2016. Asking him to step in here and right the ship may work out but the more likely scenario is that it won’t. When the coach panics, so, too, do the players. It’s wasn't that long ago it looked like the Wild had the Central division and the Western Conference championship in the bag. A 3-10-2 March has them now locked into 2nd place with a first round matchup with either Nashville or St. Louis a virtual lock. Adding to the Wild's trouble is the loss of leader Zach Parise who took a stick to the eye in Washington. He'll miss the next three games at least, as there is no reason to rush him back before the playoffs. Minnesota’s 5-4 overtime loss to Washington might look like a “good” loss on paper but the Wild still let in five goals in their own building. Minny is just 1-9 in its last 10 games while allowing 40 goals over that span. Minnesota’s record in their last 10 games is second worst in the entire league with only the lowly Colorado Avalanche being worse. The Wild need to turn this around real soon but they are gripping their sticks a little too tightly right now and Alex Stalock is not the right answer.
Dallas +194 over BOSTON
OT included. The Stars are not going to the playoffs but they get the next best thing by playing the role of the spoiler in an attempt to prevent the Bruins from going to the playoffs. These are “must win” games for the Bruins, which makes them completely overvalued in the market. If the Bruins were as good as this price suggests, they wouldn’t be fighting for their playoff lives. The B’s are coming off consecutive victories over Nashville and the Islanders but lost four straight prior to that while surrendering 20 goals in the process. Boston is giving u plenty of scoring chances while Tuukka Rask has been hit and miss all season long.
The Dallas Stars have two quality scoring lines and zero hope of making the playoffs. That unholy combination should be a major concern for Boston. The Stars also have several hot players. Tyler Seguin has now tallied 11 points over his last 14 games and has 19 points over his last 20. He’s a former Bruin that would love to come in here and make life miserable for Boston. Captain Jamie Benn comes into this contest having earned 21 points over his last 21 games, including seven multi-point outings. Defenseman John Klingberg tallied an assist against the Devils and has now tallied three points over his last four games. Klingberg ranks 12th among d-men with 45 points. Ales Hemsky comes into this contest having registered four points over his last four games. At the end of the day, Dallas is simply too dangerous (and playing well) to be spotting prices like this to and it’s for that reason they must be played. Price dictates the play in a game the Stars figure to leave nothing on the table in. Big overlay.
EDMONTON -½ +130 over San Jose
Regulation only. Edmonton clinched a playoff spot in their last game against Edmonton and after a decade of missing the playoffs, we could certainly understand the market playing the “letdown” angle against the Oilers here. Indeed, their is a sense of both accomplishment and relief but we trust that sense is with the fans and media and not the players. The Oilers have bigger dreams than just making the playoffs and they are in a position to secure home ice advantage for at least a couple of rounds. Both the team and its goaltender are playing outstanding hockey and these weary Sharks are not likely going to derail them.
The wager is based mostly on the Sharks being a dead tired team. This game will be San Jose’s 15th in the past 28 days. Playing their 14th game in 22 days, San Jose recently lost to Dallas, 6-1. The very next night they lost to Nashville, 7-2. To add fuel to the fire, San Jose just returned home from a four-game trip to play the Rangers and while they won, 5-4, they needed OT to do so and will head right back out on the road here for a tough trip to Western Canada. It’s been nothing but a month of hell for the Sharks in terms of games played and travel and now after returning home for one lousy game, they are forced to hit the skies again. Incidentally, San Jose went 0-4 on said trip and were the only team to lose to the Wild over Minnesota’s last 10 games. San Jose has allowed 17 goals against in its last three games, which is another tell tale sign of fatigue. The Oilers should easily be able to smell a wounded and extremely tired prey here and we’ll attempt to take advantage of it.
Pass NCAAB
