Round of Sixteen Preview
By Dave Essler
Notre Dame: As I said in my earlier write ups - the Irish seem to be built for the long haul. They're 16-4 SU on two days rest or less. However, winning and covering are two different things - and what concerns me most is that their non-conference schedule was horrible - and most of the ACC was way off this year - so aside from a few games, were they REALLY tested? Their bench is not very deep and they don't have the length to compete with certain teams. They seem to handle the athletic/fluid teams but struggled with team like Syracuse, Pitt, and UVA - who will grind like the Bearcats. And Butler. Off the emotional "State of Indiana" win - it'll be interesting to see how the react. I do think they match up well with Witchita State.
Arizona: The premium may be worth paying on Arizona. They were 6-0 SU in neutral site games, and 4-2 ATS. Perhaps the most impressive thing they did - KNOWING they were bigger and bigger favorites as the season wore on - was go 16-5 ATS in Conference play. They were also 6-2 ATS on one days' rest - but just like many other huge public teams, they were a huge UNDER team in neutral site games (1-5). With all the talk about Stanley Johnson people forget they are big and have the third ranked defense (efficiency) in the nation. They'll only struggle against huge teams that play defense, and that's certainly not Ohio State - especially the part about defense. They won their game against Ohio State with Johnson shooting 1-12, and as a team shooting 36% from inside. They just have too many ways to win - but can they cover the number. I think they can.
UCLA: I said all along in various communications that UCLA might not "deserve" to be there but they are a dangerous and tough "out". Teams in that situation play with a chip on their shoulder, and we did think the style they play could give SMU problems. The only problem I had was not betting on them. Twice. They played Gonzaga this season and won in LA on the strength of a torrid start that the Bruins just couldn't recover from. They shot 65% and made almost half their three's - yet allowed UCLA 74 points. If the Bruins get any kind of inside play from Parker and/or Looney they could give Gonzaga a closer game than people think, simply because UCLA is a better team NOW and it'd be hard to duplicate (for the Zags) that offensive performance.
Xavier: We actually thought Ole Miss would beat them, knowing that Xavier has had issues with team that fit Ole Miss' profile. That didn't happen as perhaps Ole Miss was just weary after running with BYU two days earlier. This team has always been an enigma to me - and since Christmas never won (or lost) more than two games in a row, unless you count the season ending win and the two Conference Tournament wins. They've got length, they rebound, and they shoot free throws well, so I suppose it really shouldn't be a surprise. My issue with them this time around is that they let Georgia State shoot 62% from inside the three point line, so I really have to question what Arizona might do, unless the Musketeers come up with the game of their life. I think they've been the benefactor of the seeding as well as not having to play Baylor.
Utah: The Utes are only 2-3 (ATS and SU) on one days' rest - and a couple of those games came in the last week-plus of the regular season, so perhaps they needed the rest. On three or more days' rest they are an astounding 16-4 ATS. Against Duke it will be a classic battle of who controls the pace, since Utah wants to walk (one of the slowest and methodical teams in the nation) and of course Duke wants to run, and run some more. It's interesting that their closer games and/or losses were in fact to running teams (primarily) and Duke had closer games/losses against teams that were able to slow them down. Although my instinct says to take Duke, Utah's experience and getting to the line more may be the difference-maker, at least with +5 points.
NC State: A gutsy and fortunate win for them against LSU and then they hold off Villanova. I thought 'Nova's primarily one-dimensional offense would fail them sooner or later. Now they get Louisville, another ACC team, who they beat in Louisville on Valentine's day. The key is that games' effect here, I think. Is it a confidence builder for the Wolfpack or is it just more motivation for the Cardinals. I've not been a fan of Gottfried in big games, and although Pitino is one of the best, I've watched L'ville not be able to keep their composure too many times this season, and actually thought they might lose to Northern Iowa for that very reason. NC State has already beaten better teams than the Cardinals, but I lean L'ville here. In their last meeting Rozier fouled out and the Wolfpack shot 47% inside. I don't think either of those happen this time around.
Kentucky: Rather than look for reasons to TAKE the Wildcats - let's look for reasons not to. It's easier. On three-plus days rest they've played 17 games and of course won them all, but they're barely above .500 in those games. Of course we're paying a premium, and people will instinctively assume that West Virginia won't turn them over like the did to the Terps, forcing 23 turnovers. Jessica's Wildcats only committed seven turnovers against a very good Bearcat defense, so perhaps they're more than ready for Huggins.
Michigan State: Yes, people love Izzo and the Spartans this time of year, and in our "Round of 32" thread we had them winning against UVA. It does seem like the early sharp money is on Oklahoma as of now, but logic dictates that if you give Izzo four or five days to prepare a team, it might be tough not to take them. We just keep wondering when their lack of getting to the line and lack of shooting well from it is going to bite them, and if history is any indicator (it is) then it will. They've beaten a couple of slower teams in UGA and UVA - now they get the up tempo Sooners. Minnesota and Indiana are about the only two Big Ten teams that play even close to that pace - so much like the Utah game this could be a battle of who controls the speed of the game. The Tournament games tend to favor the slower teams (remember when Butler almost beat Duke) because of television, timeouts, and other things that tend to slow momentum.
West Virginia: Buffalo was a trendy team and I could have made a case for them, but it appears that the simple matter of WVU playing in the Big-12 was just too much of a step-up in class. Then West Virginia was they trendy play over the Terps, and as I said forced Maryland into tons of turnovers. I think the problem the Terps may have had is that they were primarily a two-man team. Kentucky is not. West Virginia is such an enigma because they can play some bad-ass pressure defense but have real trouble scoring, and if team break their press, they're just not a great half-court team. Three losses to Baylor and two to Iowa State - teams that are just completely different styles, make them tough to handicap - at least for me. But, they are a great offensive rebounding team and are coached well. They'll do what they do and win or lose with it, so you know what you're going to get. To keep this game close they'll need to hit a bunch of those 35' three pointers, and I think they might. I like the over in this game, actually.
Oklahoma: The one thing that sticks out to me is that the teams that have beaten the Sooners in the last month are Iowa State and Iowa State. Oklahoma has handled most of the slow-down teams quite well, but have they been tested against Albany and a tired Dayton team? What they are going to need to do, as most team will in order to win, is rebound. The reality of the situation is that they are NOT a great rebounding team and the Spartans are. With that in mind and knowing that Michigan State is just in a better position to control the tempo, I lean to the un-cool Spartans and think that total may a bit high - barring late free throws.
Witchita State: For them, they appear to be somewhat under-the-radar this season, at least until the beat Kansas. Now people are taking them to the window a little more seriously. Maybe too much so.They don't have Early, obviously, but they have all four starters back from a team that was undefeated last season until Kentucky beat them in the second round. That really was kind of a BS draw for them - and this one doesn't appear to be much better. When they struggle it's typically to the ugly teams, and the Irish can be ugly. How both teams respond after winning big "rivalry" games is as much of a contributor as the matchup, although I do think the Shockers may be in trouble here.
Louisville: Obviously they've got the coach that can take them there, and the further these things go on the more that matters. Losing early in the ACC Tournament may have been a blessing in disguise, as it often is. They get eight days' rest before they have to play, and that's where Pitino comes in. Very difficult to fade Louisville in those situations. Last year they were knocked out by Kentucky in a game where they did most things right except rebound. So what does Pitino do - get bigger. They've got Onuako inside and two huge Freshman coming of the bench - something they didn't have last year. With only one days' rest this season they've played exactly two games, winning but failing to cover both of them.On long rest they're only 6-10 ATS. If the Freshman have grown and play better interior defense than they did in the regular season meeting, Louisville goes to the Elite 8.
Wisconsin: The Badgers could well be under valued since people only remember what they saw last, and that was that they couldn't really put away Oregon. That was, to me, all about it being a tough matchup for them since Oregon was able to shoot over them and play great perimeter defense. The Tar Heels may play the pace that the Ducks do, which is fast, but their composition is entirely different and it doesn't match up with the Badgers well, IMO. The Heels don't shoot a lot of three's and I don't see them being able to stay inside all night. Whether Meeks is in or out, they'll need SOMEONE to make some jump shots to open up the middle, otherwise the Badgers win this game.
Duke: As I said earlier, this one is about controlling the flow probably more than most of the other games. Duke was 15-1 SU on 3+ days' rest, but a pedestrian 7-9 ATS. Duke getting knocked out of the ACC Tournament early is probably a blessing, giving them tons of time to prepare. Utah is a better version of the Aztecs, IMO, as a team that can play some sick defense but also can score. I expect Coach K to simply make someone other than Delon Wright beat them, and it's probably going to come down to Poeltl and whether he can stay in the game (out of foul trouble). When Utah lost to Arizona he fouled out, and the Hoyas were able to get four on him and limit his minutes to only 18. If Duke does that the Blue Devils win, if they don't, they may well lose.
Gonzaga: I didn't see them throttling Iowa like they did, but that could over value them here. Could. They have not been a great ATS team on long rest, but what I did see is that they've been a great "over" team. Anyhow, they beat the Bruins earlier as we know. It's so tough to fade them after what they did, but that's when you almost have to. UCLA has NOTHING to lose whatsoever, and this game is in Houston so they may lose SOME of the homecourt advantage they enjoyed in Seattle. I would have to take the points and perhaps even a flyer that UCLA wins this game, but because neither team turns it over and neither team create many on defense, I do think this does go over the number.
North Carolina: A lot of people's trendy pick to do well - but not mine. They're still too young and IMO that game against Notre Dame showed a couple of flaws. First, they may not be built for the grind of consecutive games and travel, and secondly, they'll beat the teams that play scrappy defense but have trouble scoring (UVA and L'ville, for example). This game with the Badgers will be seven games in fifteen days, and a trip to Los Angeles. It may be too much to overcome. They ARE 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) in neutral site games this season, so if you made me I can see them hanging for the 1H but fading late.
