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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Thursday, March 2, 2017

3/02 06:00 PM CB (737) IOWA VS (738) WISCONSIN. Play Iowa.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Thursday, Masrch 2, 2017, Free Pick

3/02 04:00 PM CB (749) INDIANA STATE VS (750) EVANSVILLE. Play (749) INDIANA STATE
 
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Wunderdog

North Florida @ Lipscomb
Pick: Lipscomb -8

Lipscomb is 20-12 compared to 14-18 for North Florida, however, the Bison is in double revenge after losing both meetings to the Ospreys this season. North Florida shot 61.1 percent in its most recent win over the Bison even though it shoots just 44.0 percent on the season. Lipscomb has won nine of its last 10 games, including 97-66 over NJIT in the opening round of the Atlantic Sun tournament while shooting 61.3 percent and holding the Highlanders to 40.7 percent. Garrison Matthews poured in 30 points and Rob Marberry added 14 points and eight rebounds. North Florida comes off a 77-74 win over Jacksonville as Dallas Moore was a one-man show, scoring 37 points with no other player scoring in double digits for the Ospreys.
 
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Vernon Croy

Charlotte / Phoenix Over 219

I have this game flying over the total Thursday night given the style of play by these two teams. The Suns have allowed the second most points per game in the NBA this season with opponents averaging 112.5 ppg against them. The Suns are also a very potent offensive team, averaging 107 ppg this season and they are the 8th best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. The Suns opponents have shot a league's best 38.9% against them from beyond the arc this season and Charlotte is a very good 3-point shooting team who just shot 45% from long range against the Clippers this past Sunday. Charlotte's opponents have been averaging 106.5 ppg against them on the road this season and they are the 3rd best free-throw shooting team in the NBA, knocking down 81.2% from the line this season.
 
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Robert Ferringo

Indiana State (+1.5) over Evansville

It's time for a little Arch Madness. This game is the play-in game of the Missouri Valley Tournament and the beginning of the conference tournament season in full force. These two teams just played last Saturday and Evansville won 65-63. These two teams split their regular-season series with the games decided by a total of just three points. I expect another tight game in what is an under-the-radar rivalry in The Valley. And I'll go with the dog here as I think that they will get revenge for the thrashing they took in their tournament meeting last year. Evansville has only won off its home court twice this entire season. Indiana State has faced a tougher schedule this season, inside and out, and I think that they will get the win and advance.
 
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John Martin

Charlotte Hornets -4

The Charlotte Hornets are on a mission to make a run after the All-Star Break to get back in playoff contention. They have gone 2-2 since the break, but the two losses they easily could have won. They lost to Detroit in OT on the road after blowing a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter, and they also lost in OT on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers. Those are two good teams, and they beat the two worst teams they faced in Sacramento by 14 on the road and the LA Lakers by 5 on the road. Now they get to face another one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Phoenix Suns and should make easy work of them. The Suns are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall and have lost all three games since the break.
 
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Dave Essler

Niagara -120

Quinnipiac beat Niagra twice this season - the third time should be the charm for the Purple. Q will probably be without Reggie Oliver again (personal/death in the family) leaving them shorthanded with two Freshman running the show. Granted, the Freshman (Kiss and Dixon) are good players - but they've played a ton of minutes and they're a year removed from playing far less game in HS. Niagra can play the pace Q will want - they are very good from behind the arc and Q cannot defend the perimeter - Niagra is an excellent FT shooting team - with a much better defense. I will take my chances with both an afternoon game and a small conference
 
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SPORTS WAGERS

Florida -107 over PHILADELPHIA

OT Included. This is without question one of the biggest games of the night, as both teams are in it with only three points separating them. However, a month ago the Flyers were in a much better position than the Panthers but failed to distance themselves from anyone. Philadelphia has three wins over its past 10 games with two of those victories occurring against Vancouver and Colorado. Over their last 17 games, Philly has scored one goal or less nine times and two goals or less 13 times. The Flyers turned to Steve Mason last time out and then went on to defeat the Avalanche 4-0. Coming off a shutout, Mason gets the call here again and that is pure sweetness because not many goaltenders are worse, as his .903 save percentage will attest to. Philly may look appealing at home here in an evenly priced game but a deep look into the numbers reveal that the Panthers are superior in every way. That includes current form.

Thomas Vanek was the first player on the ice for the Panthers in this morning’s skate around. He joins a slew of other snipers to form a formidable offense that features some of the best talent in the game. Vanek just adds another dimension to a team that is going to be difficult to defend. The Panthers have won nine of 13 to reside one point behind Toronto in the race for the second Wild-Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Vanek’s 38 points match Aleksander Barkov for second-best on the Panthers, with the latter joining Jonathan Huberdeau with 11 in their last 11 games. Had Huberdeau and Barkov played a full season, they would be among the league leaders in production. The Panthers are 0-2 against Philadelphia this season but the last time they saw one another was way back on December 6. This is a much different and more powerful Panthers squad than the last one the Flyers saw and frankly speaking, we can’t find one good reason to get behind the inferior team here.

N.Y. Rangers +144 over BOSTON

The Bruins are one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Since firing head coach Claude Julien, Boston has ripped off four wins in its last five games. If you add the three wins the Bruins had going into the bye, Boston has won seven of its last eight. The Bruins are now in the thick of things in the Atlantic division but their recent success has their stock at a season high. Boston is scoring in bunches too by putting up four goals or more in three straight and in six of its last eight. A closer look however, shows that the B's dominance has come at the expense of some of the league's weakest clubs. Two of those teams, Arizona and Dallas give up the most shots in the NHL. Against that pair, Boston only managed to fire away 25 and 28 shots on net respectively. Boston is winning games but danger signs are present everywhere. Boston's inability to stay out of the box after taking 12 penalties in its last four games is going to come back to bite them soon enough. Contrarily and against two of the weaker defensive teams in the league (Dallas and Arizona), the B’s have drawn a mere five minors in its last three games combined. The B's are 1-3 this season in their second game back after a road trip of three games or more. And they just returned home to defeat Arizona. Boston's only win in this spot this year came over Buffalo in November. The last time the Bruins were in this spot (second game back after a trip) the dropped a 4-0 decision to the Islanders. Yes indeed the Bruins are winning game but the many flaws are hidden because that’s what W’s do. We now get a sweet price on a team that can score goals with the best of them.

New York made an under the radar pickup on trade deadline day by adding defenseman Brendan Smith from the Red Wings. The Rangers have an elite selection of forwards but have had trouble getting the puck out and getting them the puck. Smith should help shore things up on the back end. What this market sees is Boston hot and the Rags losing two in a row. However, New York’s two losses were to Washington and Columbus. Prior to that, New York had won nine of 11 including victories over Nashville, Toronto, Calgary, Anaheim and Washington. Let’s not ignore that despite losing the Rags were -120 over Columbus and opened as a favorite against Washington. Two losses later to the two best teams in the East and they go from a -120 favorite over the Jackets to +144 or more against Boston? That’s so ridiculous and it’s all because the market puts way more emphasis on results than performances. Huge overlay here.

Colorado +192 over OTTAWA

OT included. Ottawa returns home from a four-game trip here in which it went 2-2 but failed to score more than two goals in any of those games. In fact, the Sens have now scored two or less in five straight and have allowed 44, 38 and 38 shots on net in their last three. Coming home from a four-game trip that included the last two in sunny Florida, Ottawa is in big danger of overlooking the Avalanche here in anticipation of its big home game against Columbus on Saturday night’s Hockey Night in Canada. Aside from being in a difficult spot, the Sens aren’t good enough to be a 2-1 or better favorite over anyone and that includes the Avalanche.

Have you ever been to Colorado? Anyone that ever has, loved it. Anyone that lives there wants to stay there so even though the Avalanche are in the midst of an abhorrent season, none of the players wanted to uproot their families and move elsewhere. Losing Jerome Iginla opens the door for a quicker and more effective player. The dust has settled and Landeskog, MacKinnon and Duchene are all still intact. Aside from those three great talents, the Avalanche also have Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen, Fedor Tyutin, John Mitchell and several other proven NHLers. Joe Colborne is starting to get minutes again and he’s looking better with each passing game. The point is that Colorado should be better. They have scored a measly and almost unbelievable 121 goals in 61 games this year, which has to improve because of the talent on the roster. Their puck luck has been awful but now that the pressure is off and the trade deadline has come and gone, Colorado can just play hockey and compete. The Avs are coming off a 4-0 loss to Philly in which they were the better team but three early PP goals against did them in. They are not going to just lie down and mail it in the rest of the way and the players have to be feeling pretty good (and thankful) that management did not panic at the deadline. This is the thank you response game and now they’re in a favorable and very sneaky spot to pull off an unsuspecting upset.

Toronto +144 over LOS ANGELES

OT included. Yesterday was not a good day for Kings GM Dean Lombardi. It wasn’t a good week either. First, he couldn’t unload Marian Gaborik’s (dude is on the fourth line now) $4.8M that he’ll earn until 2021. Secondly, Steve Yzerman miraculously sucked him into taking Ben Bishop’s contract PLUS Yzerman got a backup in return, not to mention a d-man in Erik Cernak. The Jerome Iginla move (for a fourth round pick) adds nothing to this already aging and dull lineup except another aging and dull player. The Kings moved out Dwight King to make room for Iginla, which was another curious move since King is 27-years old and he brings more than Iginla with his size, net presence and more. King had 23 points this season playing for a team that cannot score while Iginla has 18 points playing for a team that has to score. The Kings regression continues.

What we have here is two teams headed in opposite directions. Most “experts” have suggested that the Kings have one final push in them to make the playoffs and if that is the case, it’ll be because the Blues will continue their horrible slide and not because Los Angeles is going to win a bunch of games. The Kings are not capable of winning a bunch of games in a row on the square. They’ll win because of their hard work and experience and not because of their talent. Winning three out of four or six out of seven is extremely unlikely to happen because L.A. is offensively challenged and its goaltending is very beatable. Jonathan Quick is the most overrated goaltender in the game that is 15 steps behind everyone else.

The Maple Leafs are hearing footsteps and we’re pretty sure that Mike Babcock was steamed up over the way his team came out in the first period against the Sharks on Tuesday. The period ended with San Jose and Toronto being scoreless but Toronto was fortunate to not be down three goals. The Leafs would end up losing 3-1 and now the Maple Leafs are trying to fend off four teams from taking that final Wild Card spot them. Four teams (Islanders, Panthers, Lightning and Flyers) are within four points of Toronto and two teams are behind by just one point. The good news is that the Maple Leafs are healthy again. Mitch Marner is a difference maker. Tyler Bozak and now Brian Boyle gives them some depth up the middle and Fredrick Andersen has been solid and reliable almost all year long. Toronto figures to be focused and hungry and as long as they play a smart game, Los Angeles on its best day cannot keep up with the Maple Leafs speed or talent. Nice overlay here.
 
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Will Rogers

Toronto vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles

The set-up: The 28-21-3 Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three straight games and now cling to just a one point edge for the final wild-card spot in the East. The 30-26-6 LA Kings have dropped two straight and reside one point behind St. Louis for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference, as they get set to host Toronto on Thursday.

Toronto: The Maple Leafs began a three-game swing through California with a 3-1 loss at San Jose on Tuesday, giving the team only four goals in its current skid. Goalie Frederik Andersen has dropped three straight decisions, despite turning aside 96 of 102 shots. The Maple Leafs made a trade with Tampa Bay on Monday, acquiring forward Brian Boyle in exchange for forward Byron Froese and a conditional 2017 second-round draft pick.

LA Kings: Speaking of trades, Ben Bishop started his first game in goal for the Kings on Tuesday at the Calgary Flames. The former Tampa Bay Lightning goalie stopped 30 shots before Calgary scored the game-winner in the 2-1 overtime victory. However, Jonathan Quick (the 2012 Conn Smythe winner) figures to start against the Maple Leafs, just his third since missing 60 games with a groin injury. The Kings acquired 39-year-old forward Jarome Iginla from the Colorado Avalanche, Head coach Darryl Sutter is banking that a familiar face has more in reserve in a bid to help ignite his sputtering team's offense. Iginla played under Sutter during Calgary's run to the Stanley Cup final in 2004

The pick: Toronto's Frederik Andersen owns a 5-1-1 career mark against the Kings but received the early hook in a 7-0 rout by Los Angeles back on Nov. 8th. Take the home team in this one.
 
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Scott Spreitzer

Golden State vs Chicago
Play: Golden State -7.5

We know Golden State is at their best when they have something to focus their attention on. In this case, the Warriors have a couple. First of all, they need to learn to play without Kevin Durant, who may miss the rest of the regular season. Secondly, they're off a SU loss last time out and have won 21 of their last 23 in this spot. GSW won't take long to shake the loss of Durant and one of the reasons is Klay Thompson, who'll get more looks with KD sidelined. Another reason is that GSW has averaged 119 ppg following their previous nine losses this season. This is just the third time they have been installed as a favorite of less than 10 points off a loss, winning & covering each of the first two by scores of 121-111 & 113-103. GSW whipped the Bulls in early February and we expect another win & cover tonight in a focused effort.
 
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David Banks

Thunder @ Blazers
Pick: Thunder +1

The Thunder may have put the pieces together to ensure they make the 2016-17 postseason. MVP candidate Russell Westbrook and newly acquired Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott just might have what it takes to help the Thunder make a playoff run. OKC will play at Portland on Thursday night and the Thunder will have the opportunity to win their fourth straight game.

Westbrook has now played the 58 games needed to make his statistics official. If he sat out the Thunder’s remaining 24 games, his current triple-double – 30.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 10.2 assists – would stand. Sitting out is not an option though for the Thunder star.

The two teams have split a pair of games. On Dec. 13 in Portland, Westbrook managed just 20 points in a 114-95 loss to the Trail Blazers. In the second meeting on Feb. 5, Westbrook lit up Portland scoring 42 in a 105-99 Thunder victory. Slowing down Westbrook will be a key for Portland’s backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The pair is one of the highest scoring backcourts in the league. Lillard averages 25.8 per game while McCollum scores 23.4.

Portland has struggled recently and fell out of the top eight in the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers have won just twice in their past seven games and the wins weren’t that impressive. Portland beat Dallas (23-35) and Minnesota (23-36).
 
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NHL
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 2

NY Rangers at Boston, 7:05 PM ET
New York: 10-2 SU in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs
Boston: 1-7 SU in home games revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more

New Jersey at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
New Jersey: 3-16 SU revenging a same season loss vs opponent
Washington: WASHINGTON is 25-6 against the money line (+13.8 Units) in home games

Florida at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Florida: 10-2 SU after playing 4 consecutive home games
Philadelphia: 8-17 SU after a non-conference game

Arizona at Buffalo, 7:05 PM ET
Arizona: 7-14 SU after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game
Buffalo: 14-8 SU after having lost 4 of their last 5 games

Minnesota at Columbus, 7:05 PM ET
Minnesota: 19-11 SU in road games
Columbus: 8-10 SU after losing their previous game in overtime

Nashville at Montreal, 7:35 PM ET
Nashville: 1-8 SU off a road win scoring 4 or more goals
Montreal: 23-16 SU when playing their 3rd game in 5 days

Colorado at Ottawa, 7:35 PM ET
Colorado: 8-28 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8
Ottawa: 17-10 SU after 1 or more consecutive losses

NY Islanders at Dallas, 8:35 PM ET
New York: 40-24 SU after having won 2 of their last 3 games
Dallas: 3-14 SU off a home win

Toronto at Los Angeles, 10:35 PM ET
Toronto: 8-3 SU in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses
Los Angeles: 2-12 SU after playing a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored

Vancouver at San Jose, 10:35 PM ET
Vancouver: 12-8 SU revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more
San Jose: 19-21 SU in home games vs. division opponents
 
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NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, March 2


Oklahoma City @ Portland

Game 705-706
March 2, 2017 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
120.751
Portland
115.714
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 5
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 1
220
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+1); Over

Charlotte @ Phoenix

Game 703-704
March 2, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
125.351
Phoenix
113.193
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 12
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 3
218
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(-3); Over

Golden State @ Chicago

Game 701-702
March 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.848
Chicago
125.694
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 3
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7 1/2); Over
 
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NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 2

Golden State at Chicago, 8:00 PM ET
Golden St: 36-19 ATS after a non-conference game
Chicago: 16-33 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3

Charlotte at Phoenix, 9:05 PM ET
Charlotte: 4-13 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5
Phoenix: 25-12 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more

Oklahoma City at Portland, 10:30 PM ET
Oklahoma City: 8-1 ATS after a division game
Portland: 11-21 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
 

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