Thursday's Early Action
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (23-8) vs. BAYLOR BEARS (23-8)
Line: Baylor -3
No. 16 Baylor looks for a three-game season sweep over No. 18 West Virginia as the Big 12’s number four and five seeds clash in Kansas City.
Baylor has dominated the series with the Mountaineers this season, winning in Morgantown (87-69) on Feb. 7 and defending their home floor in Waco (78-66) on Feb 28th. The Bears covered both contests as well. That said, all eyes will be on West Virginia star senior G Juwan Staten (14.5 PPG, 4.6 APG), who has missed the Mountaineers last three contests with a knee injury and is questionable for this contest. Updated status on Staten’s injury could have the initial Baylor (-3) line moving before tip-off.
Without Staten, West Virginia has gone 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) losing at Kansas before getting their first non-Staten win at home against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Baylor has won five of its past six contests and the Bears’ only loss in that stretch came at Texas (61-59) in a fight-marred overtime game on March 2nd. The last four times Baylor has been favored, the team is 2-2 ATS.
Historically, Baylor is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) since West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2011. These two squads have never met in the Big 12 Tournament and West Virginia’s only win in this series was on the road last January. The total has gone Over five of the past seven times Baylor and West Virginia have met, including the past three contests. In addition to Staten’s injury status, Mountaineer G Gary Browne (leg – 7.0 PPG) is also questionable for this contest.
The Oklahoma State win on Saturday should prove big for Coach Bob Huggins’ troops should Staten and Browne be declared out for this conference tournament contest. The Mountaineers are extremely young and inexperienced without those two seniors combining for major minutes (Huggins started two freshman and two sophomores versus the Cowboys). With Staten gone, the onus is on what the Mountaineers do best: Force steals (11.1 SPG, 1st in NCAA) and crash the offensive glass (17.0 ORPG, 1st in NCAA) in order to create easy baskets. Staten is their best player at bailing the Mountaineers out of a stalled half-court possession, hence the need for second shot opportunities and turning defense into offense.
G Daxter Miles Jr. (7.2 PPG) has been a bright spot filling in for Staten, as he’s averaging 16.3 points, on 50% from the field, 45% from 3PT in the three games Staten has missed. G Jevon Carter (8.5 PPG, 1.8 SPG) is also extremely capable of exploding and can do so at a moment’s notice: to wit, his 25-point performance on Feb. 28th in the Mountaineers’ last loss to Baylor.
F Devin Williams (11.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) can be a monster when he wants to be or he can foul out in less than 20 minutes. Often the x-factor in Mountaineer wins, Williams collected a huge double-double in the win over Oklahoma State on Saturday (22 points and 13 rebounds) while dishing out the foul trouble instead of being knee-deep in it (14-for-15 FT). Williams had only four points and six rebounds while collecting four fouls in West Virginia’s most recent loss to Baylor. Baylor’s patient half-court offense and perimeter weapons are a bad matchup for West Virginia, who struggles to prevent great looks from long range when they can’t force turnovers (36.8% 3PT defense, 296th in NCAA).
The common theme in both of Baylor’s wins over the Mountaineers has been successfully navigating around West Virginia’s pressure defense. In the first meeting, they had a few hiccups, committing 19 turnovers, but they broke the press early and often to shoot just under 55% for the game in Morgantown. West Virginia fouls often, but is also equally as good at drawing fouls, so Baylor had to be pleased with the fact that the nation’s third leading rebounder, F Rico Gathers (11.6 PPG, 11.6 RPG) was able to stay on the floor for 29 minutes in the win and contribute 17 points and 16 rebounds. Baylor was able to get to the line 35 times, going +10 in free throw margin over West Virginia.
In Baylor’s most recent victory, the Bears protected the ball beautifully while handing out 18 assists to only eight turnovers. Gathers had another double-double (17 points, 10 rebounds) while getting his bruising counterpart, West Virginia’s Williams, in foul trouble. Meanwhile, versatile F’s Taurean Prince (14.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 48% FG) and Royce O’Neale (10.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.5 APG) both enjoyed success against the Mountaineers, especially O’Neale who was a nightmare for West Virginia to contain.
Often being the focal point breaking the press, O’Neale’s averages (16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 10-for-16 FG, 5-for-8 3PT) show just how much he influenced the game in Baylor’s two victories. Prince was no slouch, averaging 17.5 points over the two games on 13-for-27 from the field (6-for-11 from three).
G Kenny Chery (11.3 PPG, 4.0 APG, 1.8 3PT/game) is another weapon that Baylor can hopefully rely on, although his scoring has taken a dip lately (four single-digit scoring efforts in his past seven games).
In G Lester Medford (7.7 PPG, 1.5 3PT/game) the Bears boast a fourth rotation player that hits at least 1.5 threes a game, as the deep ball is a big part of Baylor’s arsenal (38.7% 3PT, 39th in NCAA) and playing against West Virginia’s league-worst three-point defense provides a great opportunity for Prince, O’Neale, Chery and Medford to get open looks and create space for Gathers on the interior.
ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (21-10) vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS (21-10)
Line: Providence -2
Providence looks to stave off a third loss to St. John’s as both teams look to boost their NCAA tournament resumes Thursday.
Prior to St. John’s taking both regular season games off of Providence this season (83-77 in Rhode Island on Jan. 14 and 75-66 in Madison Square Garden on Jan. 31) the last time the Friars beat the Red Storm was a year ago - to the day - in the Big East Tournament. The Friars’ victory would propel them to a magical Big East title run and an automatic bid to the 2014 NCAA tournament.
St. John’s is still licking its wounds from an absolute thrashing (105-68) at the hands of conference leader, Villanova, on Saturday. The Red Storm were without the nation’s fifth leading shot-blocker, C Chris Obekpa (5.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.2 BPG) in that game, and the floodgates opened once Villanova knew that St. John’s had no rim protection. Obekpa is officially questionable for this contest with a gimpy ankle. Given how integral he is to the Red Storm’s chances of winning, all eyes will be on his injury situation leading up to the opening tip. Before the debacle in Philadelphia, St. John’s had won six of its previous seven games, positioning itself to be in the discussion for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
Providence has bobbed in and out of the top-25 lately, but a home 68-64 loss to Butler on Saturday has to be very damaging in the eyes of the NCAA committee. Just as St. John’s does, Providence desperately needs a solid win to put itself back in good favor, as the loser of this game will most likely find themselves squarely on the bubble. Providence ended its regular season in mediocre fashion (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) including two losses against Villanova (the Friars’ best chances for a statement win).
Historically, Providence is 13-7 SU (10-10 ATS) in the past 20 meetings between these two schools, however St. John’s holds a 5-3 SU (6-2 ATS) edge over the past eight contests in this series. The total has gone Over each of the past five times that the Red Storm and Friars have played. In addition to Obekpa’s cloudy status for the Red Storm, G Jamal Branch (4.7 PPG, 2.5 APG) is also questionable (groin).
A St. John’s win, will largely hinge on the health status of Obekpa. That said, they have an outstanding core group of perimeter players. Like Providence’s Bryce Cotton from a year ago, senior G D’Angelo Harrison (17.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 3PT/game) has the talent and lack of a conscience to put the Red Storm on his back and carry them to a conference title. He fouls a ton for a guard (3.4 FPG) and these issues can easily take himself off his game, or get him planted on the bench by Coach Steve Lavin.
St. John’s best player this season has arguably been the human swiss army knife otherwise known as F Sir’Dominic Pointer (13.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 53% FG, 2.5 BPG, 2.0 SPG). Pointer has played well against Providence this season, averaging 19 PPG over those two contests. As unique a player as there is in the whole nation, Pointer is amongst the Big East’s top-10 leaders in every category listed above except assists (where he’s 13th). Pointer is the only player in the nation averaging two steals and two blocks per game, as he and Obekpa are the main reasons why the Red Storm are 4th in the nation in blocks (6.6 BPG).
Balancing out Coach Lavin’s short rotation are G Rysheed Jordan (14.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) and G Phil Greene IV (13.3 PPG, 40% 3PT). Greene IV is an iron man, leading the team with 34.8 minutes per game and averaged 16 PPG versus the Friars this season on 50% (13-for-26) from the field. Jordan has come into his own this season as he and Pointer help St. John’s rack up 7.6 steals per game (44th NCAA). A new development for Jordan has been his marksmanship from three point range, as he’s exploded to go 10-for-23 in his past three games, en route to leading the Red Storm in scoring during that stretch to end the season at 19.7 points per game.
St. John’s knows it can score efficiently against the Friars (50.9% and 47.4% FG, respectively), and will have to continue to do so, as the Red Storm are at a distinct size disadvantage. It’s not likely that the Red Storm will hit just shy of 60% from three, as they did in the road victory over Providence, but as long as Obekpa is healthy, the Red Storm has proven that they can subdue the Providence offense, holding the Friars to 39.7% and 41.3% FG respectively.
Providence knows the keys to beating St. John’s: 1) Get St. John’s in foul trouble (which the Friars did in the first game). 2) Outrebound the Red Storm mercilessly (which the Friars did, 44-29 in the second game). 3) Shoot better than 9-for-31 from three point range. Unfortunately, the Friars lack the perimeter defensive fortitude to match up well with St. John’s aforementioned four key offensive players. The Friars aren’t bad statistically on defense (65.8 PPG allowed, 4th in Big East) and while not at St. John’s level, they do protect the rim well (4.7 BPG, 3rd in Big East, 42nd in NCAA).
That said, Providence plays five players over 20 minutes a game and only one of them, star G Kris Dunn (15.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.4 APG) is similar in size, stature, and quickness to the Red Storm quartet of Harrison, Jordan, Greene and Pointer. Dunn has been arguably the Big East’s best player, as the oft-injured guard finally put together a full season displaying breathtaking athleticism and playmaking ability, albeit with a penchant for trying to do too much (4.1 TO/G). When arguing whether Dunn is the league’s best player, one could offer up the efforts of fellow teammate,
F LaDontae Henton (20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG), the Big East’s leading scorer and one of only 15 players in the nation to average 20+ points per game this season. Henton has been a four-year starter since day one as a freshman for Coach Ed Cooley. Henton struggled to go 2-for-14 from the field in his last effort versus the Red Storm. A big issue for Providence in this matchup is that the Friars just really struggle from the three point arc (30.4 % 3PT, 315th in NCAA). Scoring inside against the length of Obekpa and Pointer is tough enough, but if their three point woes continue as they have against the Red Storm, Providence will find itself forcing the action towards St. John’s rim protectors hoping that the referees will show them mercy with fouls.
